Derby County

[Mr Popodopolous]

26 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The local MPs will obviously call for leniency, easy win for them to do that.

I was on Derby's forum, looking at the match thread for tomorrow. You sir, you have quite the fan club on there. You're a very popular Popodopolous.

Of course. Easy win as you say.

I know my audience! Yeah...they love me!  Derby away- I wonder if our trip there could be the game that relegates them...timing of the season vs deduction it's not impossible? NP might hope so given his short-lived and unhappy time there..

Edit just checked- 23rd April 2022.

On topic, their administrators have said they hope to sell by late January, as they've said for some time now.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11696/12485472/derby-county-administrators-hope-to-sell-club-in-january-2022

Edited December 3, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Of course. Easy win as you say.

I know my audience! Yeah...they love me!  Derby away- I wonder if our trip there could be the game that relegates them...timing of the season vs deduction it's not impossible? NP might hope so given his shortlived and unhappy time there..

On topic, their administrators have said they hope to sell by late January, as they've said for some time now.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11696/12485472/derby-county-administrators-hope-to-sell-club-in-january-2022

I saw you're idea to get hospitality there for the away game. Please do it, please get a flag with your forum name on it.

On topic - I was expecting Quantuma to come out with something bullish this week. They needed to counter the stuff in the Mail earlier on, they need to make it look like stuff is happening and that progress is on course. It's the same reason famed insolvency practitioner Wayne Rooney said the stuff he said in mid-week.

"By way of key matters still to resolve, later this month we expect to have identified a preferred buyer and made progress with ongoing discussions with HMRC, Middlesbrough Football Club and Wycombe Wanderers FC," Jackson said.

"All these matters will determine the most appropriate exit route from the administration.

So everything hinges on exactly what liabilities, and potential liabilities, any new owner will take on. As I have said before, people that buy companies, especially those that buy high profile companies for tens of millions, they want as much certainty as they can get. They must accept that when buying an insolvent entity they will naturally not get the same level of disclosures, warranties and indemnities as they would buying a functioning club, but they will still want something. Buyers are likely also trying to get some warranty and indemnity insurance in place, and so the insurer will be involved in this as well, and will want to limit its exposure. 

"We can confirm at this stage that exclusivity has not been granted to any individual or group and we continue to have constructive discussions with a number of Interested parties.

Interesting. Tells me that they've not signed a heads of terms with anyone, no exclusivity means that either non one wants to commit to the terms that come with it, or maybe there's actually only one interested party, and so no need for exclusivity? Ultimately I suspect it's related to the "ongoing discussions with HMRC, Middlesbrough Football Club and Wycombe Wanderers FC".

"In terms of funding, this has been secured by the administrators, with a charge recently filed at Companies House.

Oh thank god, I was losing sleep over whether or not Quantuma would get paid.

"Day-to-day work to secure the future of this historic football club continues and while there are no guarantees, we remain confident of a positive outcome for the club."

Sure, you lads crack on. Ultimately I guess this statement was needed, but amounts to little more than "We're still working on it".

[Hxj]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

ongoing discussions with HMRC, Middlesbrough Football Club and Wycombe Wanderers FC

That's my understanding.  I also understand that if either Middlesbrough or Wycombe institute the formal dispute process within the EFL regulations then it is unlikely that any case will be heard before March.  Any formal dispute will more than likely stop any purchaser from progressing a purchase.  No matter how sure you are that you will succeed, another £5, £10, or £20 million in potential Football Creditors really impacts upon the value.

In reality once we get to 1 January 2022 the transfer window reopens and the football clubs only assets are available to be cherry picked.

I doubt that Derby can survive if the completion date moves much beyond early January 2022.

In order to have a vote on any exit from Administration 14 days notice needs to given.  Notice of any such vote would need to be given on 17 December, two weeks today, to stop the otherwise inevitable liquidation.

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Hxj

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Hxj said:

That's my understanding.  I also understand that if either Middlesbrough or Wycombe institute the formal dispute process within the EFL regulations then it is unlikely that any case will be heard before March.  Any formal dispute will more than likely stop any purchaser from progressing a purchase.  No matter how sure you are that you will succeed, another £5, £10, or £20 million in potential Football Creditors really impacts upon the value.

Absolutely, the only alternative is to buy with ongoing litigation and get W&I insurance to cover the potential liabilities arising from it. I guess you might also try for a personal indemnity from Morris. Neither is likely to be forthcoming without either a huge insurance premium - which itslef obviously adds to the Buyer's costs, or something for Morris - again likely a premium onto the price. I can't see it happening.

4 minutes ago, Hxj said:

In reality once we get to 1 January 2022 the transfer window reopens and the football clubs only assets are available to be cherry picked.

Which is a real danger. As I said before, I think they'd have a couple of ways to mitigate a full fire-sale, but if a club came in for a player at a a fair price, they'd be hard pressed to explain to creditors why they refused the sale and also complied with their fiduciary duties. Some big players might be available. Shame we probably don't have the cash to join in on the feeding really.

5 minutes ago, Hxj said:

In order to have a vote on any exit from Administration 14 days notice needs to given.  Notice of any such vote would need to be given on 17 December, two weeks today, to stop the otherwise inevitable liquidation.

What do you think they'd need in place in order to send the notice of meeting? Heads of Terms? First draft SPA? Or would creditors expect to see a fully agreed suite of docs signed and held in escrow pending completion - and the only condition to completion being creditor consent?

[Hxj]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

What do you think they'd need in place in order to send the notice of meeting?

Full and Final details.  Who gets paid precisely what.  Not going to happen.  Full Stop.  End of Derby County.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Hxj said:

Full and Final details.  Who gets paid precisely what.  Not going to happen.  Full Stop.  End of Derby County.

God no it's not is it. Settle the three big claims, and paper up the sale in the next two weeks, when you don't even have a HoT signed with a proposed buyer. Nope. Not happening.

So they'll still be in liquidation come 1 January and Lawrence, Roos, Bielek, and all their young talents become ripe for picking. 

[Hxj]

Thought I would update the Derby points position, after all they got absolutely hammered today 

Although Cardiff lost a draw between Reading and Hull was a really bad result for Derby.

As regards Derby -

With 22 (gross) points from 21 games that gives them a generous season total with no deduction of 49 points.  That would see them survive in most of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction a net score of 28 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Cardiff in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 46 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in.  Based on current performance Derby need 45 points from 25 games, which exceeds West Brom's performance so far this season.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Hxj

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, Hxj said:

Thought I would update the Derby points position, after all they got absolutely hammered today 

Although Cardiff lost a draw between Reading and Hull was a really bad result for Derby.

As regards Derby -

With 22 (gross) points from 21 games that gives them a generous season total with no deduction of 49 points.  That would see them survive in most of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction a net score of 28 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Cardiff in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 46 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in.  Based on current performance Derby need 45 points from 25 games, which exceeds West Brom's performance so far this season.

Good

[REDOXO]

So with three points in our bag thankfully. Are we better off if Derby go into liquidation mid season or somehow limp to the end? I guess The impending player/asset sale could yield enough to keep something going but they will be in the City 82 situation at best!

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

53 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

So with three points in our bag thankfully. Are we better off if Derby go into liquidation mid season or somehow limp to the end? I guess The impending player/asset sale could yield enough to keep something going but they will be in the City 82 situation at best!

 

We would lose three points but the flip side is, so would Posh & Barnsley. Hull lost to them and they haven`t played Cardiff yet.

[REDOXO]

1 minute ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

We would lose three points but the flip side is, so would Posh & Barnsley. Hull lost to them and they haven`t played Cardiff yet.

They have Bahdiff before January. What a mess!

[Midred]

On 03/12/2021 at 19:11, ExiledAjax said:

God no it's not is it. Settle the three big claims, and paper up the sale in the next two weeks, when you don't even have a HoT signed with a proposed buyer. Nope. Not happening.

So they'll still be in liquidation come 1 January and Lawrence, Roos, Bielek, and all their young talents become ripe for picking. 

You seem to have forgotten that Wayne said,

1) We're not going into liquidation.

2) We won't be relegated.

[Mr Popodopolous]

On 04/12/2021 at 19:28, Lanterne Rouge said:

We would lose three points but the flip side is, so would Posh & Barnsley. Hull lost to them and they haven`t played Cardiff yet.

Expect that only two would be relegated as well in that scenario.

[Davefevs]

34 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Expect that only two would be relegated as well in that scenario.

That’s exactly what would happen.

[ExiledAjax]

56 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Expect that only two would be relegated as well in that scenario.

 

21 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That’s exactly what would happen.

Plus an extra promotion from L2 to L1 and from the National League into L2 to make it back up to 72 EFL clubs in 3 sets of 24. Think I've got the maths right there?

[PHILINFRANCE]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

Plus an extra promotion from L2 to L1 and from the National League into L2 to make it back up to 72 EFL clubs in 3 sets of 24. Think I've got the maths right there?

Oh my goodness!

So we could be playing Rovers next season after all .

[REDOXO]

I was just taking a look at the Derby Forum and was a bit shocked at what some think their players could be worth. It took me back to having to sell Gerry Gow and Tom Ritchie for fire sale values back then, however at least there wasn’t a global virus dropping the bottom out of the market! 
 

I hope for the sake of the supporters of the club a buyer willing to absorb that amount of debt can be found, but the idea that selling players, one of whom 8million is still owed on, will do nothing except a few weeks breathing room. Unless of course Mel boy stumps up for some of the debt he created! Yes unlikely!

[Lanterne Rouge]

14 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Oh my goodness!

So we could be playing Rovers next season after all .

I expect they will try and claim the extra promotion place regardless of where they finish because they are the bestest club in the land and deserve it.

[cider11]

21 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

Plus an extra promotion from L2 to L1 and from the National League into L2 to make it back up to 72 EFL clubs in 3 sets of 24. Think I've got the maths right there?

I thought it was one less team gets relegated from each division instead of an extra going up. So 2 down from champ to league with 3 up. 
3 down from league 1 to 2 instead of 4. 1 down to the national league instead of 2. 

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, cider11 said:

I thought it was one less team gets relegated from each division instead of an extra going up. So 2 down from champ to league with 3 up. 
3 down from league 1 to 2 instead of 4. 1 down to the national league instead of 2. 

Yep upon re-Reading @ExiledAjaxim sure it is:

Champ Relegated: 2

League 1 promoted: 3 (meaning 23 clubs)

League 1 relegated: 3 (Lg 1 20 / Lg2 27)

League 2 promoted: 4 (Lg1 back to 24 / Lg2 23)

League 2 relegated: 1 (Lg2 22)

NL promoted: 2 (Lg2 back to 24 / NL 1 short)

 

[ExiledAjax]

9 minutes ago, cider11 said:

I thought it was one less team gets relegated from each division instead of an extra going up. So 2 down from champ to league with 3 up. 
3 down from league 1 to 2 instead of 4. 1 down to the national league instead of 2. 

 

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep upon re-Reading @ExiledAjaxim sure it is:

Champ Relegated: 2

League 1 promoted: 3 (meaning 23 clubs)

League 1 relegated: 3 (Lg 1 20 / Lg2 27)

League 2 promoted: 4 (Lg1 back to 24 / Lg2 23)

League 2 relegated: 1 (Lg2 22)

NL promoted: 2 (Lg2 back to 24 / NL 1 short)

 

Fair, makes sense. I was almost certain I was wrong anyway.

[REDOXO]

https://www.football365.com/news/opinion-derby-countys-liquidation-talk-is-a-real-threat-future-wayne-rooney

Excellent article (surprisingly) if anyone is interested in a current summation. 

[Davefevs]

@REDOXOwasnt aware of these rules. Ta.  Good article too.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Davefevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

Couple of Derby bits. Had a bit of a read for the first time in a while.

The latest rumour is that a bidder will offer £54m. A rumour from a fan or an ITK.

There was a breakdown, something like all football creditors paid, MSD paid, 2/3 of HMRC debt and 25p in the £ for unsecured creditors. Can't remember if there were any other categories. Belief that it would see the ground return to club ownership a long lease for the Training Ground and enable Derby to retain their best young players.

Middlesbrough and Wycombe. Their claims are largely dismissed on there as frivolous, without merit etc.

Some amusing posts too. G Star Ram was still disputing the amortisation ruling as recently as Saturday.

More generally, some bullishness in places and definitely some whataboutery regarding HMRC issue. Vodafone was cited as one, arguments too that it wouldn't set a precedent were there a big discount as all industries etc different times.

Also though a suggestion that due to the debt due to Mel Morris, the HMRC share of the debt could be under 25% and therefore they couldn't block it.

My views

1) Hope they get relegated.

2) No HMRC discounts. Payment schedules potentially yes but no wiping.

3) A good EFL Business Plan for the next year or two.

4) As part of that, there either needs to be an enforced separation of the Football Group and Stadium Group for FFP purposes or if it does return to the club then a Fair Value rent based on the original transaction needs adding for FFP purposes.

5) If eg no rent shown when they release their subsequent accounts to the EFL in late January or other discrepancies then misconduct or bad faith charges should be considered.

Though they can't get penalised for FFP again, the EFL are yet to see 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21 accounts. They have to be in order. If they are late then further charges or sanctions should follow. 

[ExiledAjax]

19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

There was a breakdown, something like all football creditors paid, MSD paid, 2/3 of HMRC debt and 25p in the £ for unsecured creditors.

Tbf this seems like a fair compromise, although I'd assume the other 1/3 HMRC debt is managed over a payment plan.

£54m, plus ongoing HMRC payments, plus costs, plus possible payouts regarding the "frivolous" Boro and Wycombe claims...it's still an awful lot for a league 1 club.

From what @Hxj said previously regarding notice periods for the creditors meeting, they've got about a week to sort a deal if they want to be out of Admin by Jan 1st.

[Hxj]

Just to clarify (if it exists) it will be an offer to buy the club for £1 and the stadium company for £1 and to introduce sufficient capital by way of shareholding or loans to repay £54 million of debt. Imagine starting again with £54 million in loans!

This will result in MSD getting their, probably nearer £25 million now, £3 million in fees, £8 million in football creditors, leaving £18 million to HMRC.  Nothing to the rest of the creditors as the preference rules apply.  HMRC could agree to waive part of their debt to other creditors, but I don't see why they would.  Another issue, I couldn't see the non-preferential HMRC debt in the list, being Employer's NIC along with interest and late payment penalties on all the debt etc, so I suspect there could be another £6 million or so of unsecured creditors, only time will tell on that point.

Whilst the Middlesbrough and Wycombe claims are entirely frivolous, they still need to be resolved.

In order to get a vote by 31 December, the paperwork needs to be finalised by 17 December.

 

[Sweeneys Penalties]

On 03/12/2021 at 17:22, ExiledAjax said:

I saw you're idea to get hospitality there for the away game. Please do it, please get a flag with your forum name on it.

 

Oh this made me smile. I think we should all go to Derby with a "Popodopolous" Flag in an "I'm Spartacus" fashion. That should keep the natives restless

[ExiledAjax]

16 minutes ago, Sweeneys Penalties said:

Oh this made me smile. I think we should all go to Derby with a "Popodopolous" Flag in an "I'm Spartacus" fashion. That should keep the natives restless

Get the players some "I'm Mr Pop" t-shirts for the warm up

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Hxj said:

Whilst the Middlesbrough and Wycombe claims are entirely frivolous, they still need to be resolved.

They are entirely frivolous then? Surely if Derby have withheld accounts which seems to at least have been possible there could be some merit- albeit mainly to the Wycombe one, because a deduction applied last season would have sent Derby down and the amount Wycombe have put in for is much easier to quantify?

[Hxj]

17 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

They are entirely frivolous then?

I'll settle for 'mostly frivolous' then!

I have huge sympathy for Wycombe, and I would have loved to see them stay up, but I can't see how they can show that they were relegated because of Derby's 'cheating'.  There is no way that Middlesbrough can show that they lost out.