Derby County

[supercidered]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I believe that Wycombe have already sent an 'invoice' or 'claim' to Derby/Derby's administrators requesting £6m as a creditor. Personally I see that as them simply staking their claim, I suspect they have zero expectation of that being paid, but asking for it shows that they think they deserve it. If they really think they can get something then I would think the real claim will got against the EFL, through proper litigation in the courts. I see their chance of success as minimal at best. 

Personally I would not mind Wycombe getting immunity from relegation following their next promotion to the Championship. Truth is they shouldn't have been relegated last season, and so some small token could be extended. Maybe if not full immunity then they could be 'given' Derby's deducted points? Pie in the sky I know as the other clubs would never agree to it, but it's an idea.

I totally get your sentiment and I share that. However, as much as fans and other clubs would also agree with sentiment. Ultimately, clubs would be looking after their own interests and not Wycombe Wanderers. In addition, it would open the biggest can of worms imaginable.

 

[supercidered]

I've not seen anything from Derby fans on here. There was one in particular that was bleating on about it all being unfair and got right on my t!ts. I think they called themselves Another Derby Fan. Have they posted since the new points deduction verdict? 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by supercidered
spelling

[Pezo]

2 minutes ago, supercidered said:

I've not seen anything from Derby fans on here. There was one in particular that was bleating on about it all being unfair and got right on my t!ts. I think he was called Another Derby Fan. Have they posted since the new points deduction verdict? 

 

@AnotherDerbyFan?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Tbh I welcomed the contributions of @DerbyFan and @AnotherDerbyFan

Different perspective but good not to have an echo chamber- the latter did some very good work on financial/amortisation projections using 4 different methods from 2015/16 to 2023/24 IIRC!

Edited November 16, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[Hxj]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

@Hxjinteresting that club still need to produce some accounts even if not at CH (26.2.ii)

Yep - about every angle covered off that has been raised on here - almost as if the EFL read this thread!

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Any idea whether they might be in further breach for the latest FFP cycle / period too.

More than likely in my view.

2020/21 was the sum of 2017/18, 2018/19, plus the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21.

2021/22 will be the sum of 2018/19, the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21, plus 2021/22.

2020/21 was a breach by £2 million and 2017/18 was a guess £20 million profit for FFP.  Consequently 2021/22 will need to be a £22 million profit to avoid another FFP failure.  The princople of 'Loss Reset' does not seem to apply.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Hxj

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Hxj said:

Yep - about every angle covered off that has been raised on here - almost as if the EFL read this thread!

More than likely in my view.

2020/21 was the sum of 2017/18, 2018/19, plus the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21.

2021/22 will be the sum of 2018/19, the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21, plus 2021/22.

2020/21 was a breach by £2 million and 2017/18 was a guess £20 million profit for FFP.  Consequently 2021/22 will need to be a £22 million profit to avoid another FFP failure.  The princople of 'Loss Reset' does not seem to apply.

Would be good to know the figs that go in each box

[Hxj]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Certainly there will be a QC out there who will take Wycombe's case. 

Wycombe's case will have to be a dispute under the EFL Arbitration scheme.  I can see Wycombe mounting a dispute against Derby claiming the £6 million as a 'Football Creditor'.  That should foul up a quick and clean exit from the Administration for some considerable time.

[Hxj]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Would be good to know the figs that go in each box

Some are in the published decisions I think. Will dig them out and see what there is.  What we do know is that 2021/22 has to be a profit £2 million more than 2017/18 ....

[ExiledAjax]

12 minutes ago, Hxj said:

Wycombe's case will have to be a dispute under the EFL Arbitration scheme.  I can see Wycombe mounting a dispute against Derby claiming the £6 million as a 'Football Creditor'.  That should foul up a quick and clean exit from the Administration for some considerable time.

Genuinely interested in why the EFL Arbitration is the correct 'court' for that to be heard.

Also, if admin extends into 2022, and no buyer has been found, then is there a prospect of a serious fire sale of players? If in January, Derby received an offer of £1m for Tom Lawrence, would the Admins be duty bound to accept that offer? I honestly don't remember enough about Admins duties to be certain of the answer. The overriding duty though is to act in the interests of the creditors - and in reality that means making the most cash available for them. My gut is that the would have to accept it as it represents the realisation of an asset, and saves wages, so creating more cash for the creditors' pot.

I guess a full fire sale is out of the question, as that same duty requires the Admins to get market value for each player, so they can't realistically be lowballed by any club that fancies a Derby player on the cheap.

Could see a lot of exits in Jan though?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Paragraphs 23-25 are quite interesting- bit more detail about the suspended -3.

Basically, barring an EFL error if they do not comply with the budget, -9 becomes -12. However that would not be the end of the process, as I have thought that would be a downpayment- as in -3 and then whatever an IDC would award for the breach itself, in the P&S period to 2022 be it losses or anything else- and the 3 pts would not mitigate any penalty for breach.

Paragraph 26.2 is also quite good.

In some ways, arguably more significant than the points deduction.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[Hampshire reds]

How can Reading sign Andy Carroll when there is a chance they could also have points deducted 

[Hxj]

7 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Genuinely interested in why the EFL Arbitration is the correct 'court' for that to be heard.

EFL Official Website - Section 9 – Arbitration  Memebership includes an agreement to arbitrate, which precludes any litigation between the clubs outside the written agreement.

 

13 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

My gut is that the would have to accept it as it represents the realisation of an asset, and saves wages, so creating more cash for the creditors' pot.

That would be my expectation, especially where the player is out of contract in the summer.  I could see an alternative argument where Derby are close to not being relegated and in that case the best interests of creditors could be better served by not selling and maintaining Championship status, however I expect that by 1 January that will be a pipe dream.

[Davefevs]

48 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Paragraphs 23-25 are quite interesting- bit more detail about the suspended -3.

Basically, barring an EFL error if they do not comply with the budget, -9 becomes -12. However that would not be the end of the process, as I have thought that would be a downpayment- as in -3 and then whatever an IDC would award for the breach itself, in the P&S period to 2022 be it losses or anything else- and the 3 pts would not mitigate any penalty for breach.

Paragraph 26.2 is also quite good.

In some ways, arguably more significant than the points deduction.

Yep, that was really good to see that….basically another 3 for failing to do what you agreed, but not ruling out other P&S penalties of this current cycle limits are breached too.

[woodsyred]

2 hours ago, SecretSam said:

Looks like there are now only two relegation places left:

Derby get further points deduction

If only I had a microscope, I could find my tiny, tiny violin and play it for them

The way we are playing I would say only one relegation place up for grabs

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, that was really good to see that….basically another 3 for failing to do what you agreed, but not ruling out other P&S penalties of this current cycle limits are breached too.

Wonder how they will calculate that.

My basic assumption is reset 2018/19 and the combined average of 2019/20 and 2020/21 both to £13m.

As such, an FFP target of £13m this season? That said, without knowing the precise figures of each individual restated year it is hard to say.

[Jerseybean]

????????: Derby have accepted a fresh nine-point deduction from the EFL.

This will leave Wayne Rooney’s side 18 points adrift of Championship safety.

 

[exAtyeoMax]

 

 

[Jerseybean]

From the Derby fans forum 

There's only one person to blame for all of this, one..

He's lied to us, conned us and left us high and dry.

The EFL are applying rules that are in place for every single club. 

We've lost more than we should. 

Morris tried to flount the rules, failed and left us.

Putting us in administration was the final nail.

But if you wanna sing F the EFL for applying punishments to us for breaking rules that we knew were there and knew what the punishment would be then go ahead.

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

From the Derby fans forum 

There's only one person to blame for all of this, one..

He's lied to us, conned us and left us high and dry.

The EFL are applying rules that are in place for every single club. 

We've lost more than we should. 

Morris tried to flount the rules, failed and left us.

Putting us in administration was the final nail.

But if you wanna sing F the EFL for applying punishments to us for breaking rules that we knew were there and knew what the punishment would be then go ahead.

Is that you @Mr Popodopolousposting on their forum again

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Is that you @Mr Popodopolousposting on their forum again

Let's not blow cover! 

Whoever it was, I like use of the word 'flount'.

A new word? Quite apt too...

As Mel...

Flaunted his cash

Flouted the regs

Then when things went South he Flounced out of there!

Edited November 17, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[AnotherDerbyFan]

19 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

They'll survive off the pitch, never much doubt. Hope they do too.

There were plenty of occasions when I very much doubted you hoped that

 

16 hours ago, Hxj said:

Yep - about every angle covered off that has been raised on here - almost as if the EFL read this thread!

More than likely in my view.

2020/21 was the sum of 2017/18, 2018/19, plus the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21.

2021/22 will be the sum of 2018/19, the average of 2019/20 and 2020/21, plus 2021/22.

2020/21 was a breach by £2 million and 2017/18 was a guess £20 million profit for FFP.  Consequently 2021/22 will need to be a £22 million profit to avoid another FFP failure.  The principle of 'Loss Reset' does not seem to apply.

The figures appear to reset based on my old calcs, although I am missing about £16m of losses - dependant on what P&S profit/loss was for 2020

 

16 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Would be good to know the figs that go in each box

To 20/21 should include 17/18 and not 21/22
To 21/22 should include 18/19 and not 22/23

My estimates:

14//15 -£5.6m
15/16 -£22.1m
16/17 -£19.9m
17/18 -£0.6m
18/19 -£29.2m
19/20 -£30.1m
20/21 -£12.3m
21/22 -£11.5m

£8m underestimate for 2019
£6m underestimate for 2021

Estimate for 2022 is losses of £45.7m - just under £6m over the limit (let's hope my figures start to balance out )

[AnotherDerbyFan]

30 minutes ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

There were plenty of occasions when I very much doubted you hoped that

 

The figures appear to reset based on my old calcs, although I am missing about £16m of losses - dependant on what P&S profit/loss was for 2020

 

To 20/21 should include 17/18 and not 21/22
To 21/22 should include 18/19 and not 22/23

My estimates:

14//15 -£5.6m
15/16 -£22.1m
16/17 -£19.9m
17/18 -£0.6m
18/19 -£29.2m
19/20 -£30.1m
20/21 -£12.3m
21/22 -£11.5m

£8m underestimate for 2019
£6m underestimate for 2021

Estimate for 2022 is losses of £45.7m - just under £6m over the limit (let's hope my figures start to balance out )

I lie. Forgot about the reset values for the 2022 period.

Correction: Estimate for 2022 is losses of £37.2m - just inside the P&S limit (assuming £13m rather than £5m per season)

[Davefevs]

@AnotherDerbyFan ta for the numbers.

here’s my xls

Hope I’ve made the right corrections.

[sephjnr]

8 hours ago, billywedlock said:

Their fans may just wake up and sing F the Morris. He absolutely rung them out . That he is not facing criminal charges shows weakness in our company structures set up. Not sure their damage is over yet, the administrators look to have found a very big pile of poo. 

Peter Risdale never saw court for fleecing Leeds. Steve Dale hasn't seen court for what's happened to Bury. This has to change.

[AnotherDerbyFan]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

@AnotherDerbyFan ta for the numbers.

here’s my xls

Hope I’ve made the right corrections.

What are your thoughts on resets?
Either they're reset and I've overestimated the drop in wage bill and/or change in revenue, or... they don't reset and I've underestimated wage bill and/or revenue increase.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 hours ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

There were plenty of occasions when I very much doubted you hoped that

I have to say, looking back now my views ebbed and flowed over the time period. I was genuinely outraged by the P&S issues, the denial and had a horrible nagging fluctuating fear that Derby woud get off the hook one way or another, which crystalised my views.

The denial, the obfusucation- and yes in the case of a reasonable chunk of fans, the on strings stuff I saw as quite objectionable. I won't write an essay on my views, there have been nearly 2 years of this haha!

I was also amazed that fans or a lot of them a) Seemed not to grasp or chose to disregard that just because cleared in IDC1 to 2018, was by no means the end of it and b) A few talking of signing Adam Armstrong in Summer 2021. Crazy given an FFP crunch even if only budgetary was coming one way or another. Takeovers don't reset it either.

Perhaps I have been a bit unfair at times but some of the flak on DCFCFans inevitably hardened my position at times.

Oh yes, some of the club statements throughout the piece look a bit hollow now. They grated somewhat as well.

The £30m Revaluation Reserve...did you think there was a realistic chance of inclusion? Apologies if already covered. I had significant doubts let's say.

Edited November 17, 2021 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

35 minutes ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

What are your thoughts on resets?
Either they're reset and I've overestimated the drop in wage bill and/or change in revenue, or... they don't reset and I've underestimated wage bill and/or revenue increase.

Dunno, was just plotting your figures!

What are “resets”?

[AnotherDerbyFan]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I have to say, looking back now my views ebbed and flowed over the time period. I was genuinely outraged by the P&S issues, the denial and had a horrible nagging fluctuating fear that Derby woud get off the hook one way or another, which crystalised my views.

The denial, the obfusucation- and yes in the case of a reasonable chunk of fans, the on strings stuff I saw as quite objectionable. I won't write an essay on my views, there have been nearly 2 years of this haha!

I was also amazed that fans or a lot of them a) Seemed not to grasp or chose to disregard that just because cleared in IDC1 to 2018, was by no means the end of it and b) A few talking of signing Adam Armstrong in Summer 2021. Crazy given an FFP crunch even if only budgetary was coming one way or another. Takeovers don't reset it either.

Perhaps I have been a bit unfair at times but some of the flak on DCFCFans inevitably hardened my position at times.

Oh yes, some of the club statements throughout the piece look a bit hollow now. They grated somewhat as well.

The £30m Revaluation Reserve...did you think there was a realistic chance of inclusion? Apologies if already covered. I had significant doubts let's say.

Every club has a section of fans like that - they have no concept of what is affordable. I'm sure I could dig up a thread on this forum wondering why you aren't splashing the cash on £10m signings 

I hoped it would be included, but always excluded it from my calcs for the very reason of it being extremely unlikely to count.

 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Dunno, was just plotting your figures!

What are “resets”?

If a club fails one period, annual losses exceeding £13m would be 'reset' to £13m to calculate P&S losses for future periods.

So for the 3 years to 2018, the calculation would be £13m + £13m + £0.6m  = totalling £26m losses, rather than £42.6m if using the actual figures.

[Davefevs]

43 minutes ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

Every club has a section of fans like that - they have no concept of what is affordable. I'm sure I could dig up a thread on this forum wondering why you aren't splashing the cash on £10m signings 

I hoped it would be included, but always excluded it from my calcs for the very reason of it being extremely unlikely to count.

 

If a club fails one period, annual losses exceeding £13m would be 'reset' to £13m to calculate P&S losses for future periods.

So for the 3 years to 2018, the calculation would be £13m + £13m + £0.6m  = totalling £26m losses, rather than £42.6m if using the actual figures.

Ah, got you….guess you can’t compound the penalty, have to take the medicine, “reset” the numbers and go forward from there.

Is there still doubt over the 20/21 actuals (see note 26.2), i.e. could the £40.96m loss be different?

So, going forward, do we see something like this….resets in Orange (halved each £13m in the covid years)

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

Every club has a section of fans like that - they have no concept of what is affordable. I'm sure I could dig up a thread on this forum wondering why you aren't splashing the cash on £10m signings 

That is true, but some of it was remarkable. Talking the whole period, I am assuming Mel had significant input into the rousing club statements. He has now gone so that helps..

4 hours ago, AnotherDerbyFan said:

I hoped it would be included, but always excluded it from my calcs for the very reason of it being extremely unlikely to count.

Yes, agreed. Towards equity or other similar categories certainly but seems ropey from an accounting, let alone a P&S viewpoint through Profit and Loss. I doubt that final flourish did Derby any favours although the die was probably cast by then.