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Derby Deserve Relegation; Are the Football League going to bungle this one too?


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Just now, Bristol Rob said:

With debts of that size, liquidation must be a possibility.

Lot of money for a Lg1 club isn’t it?

How much do think (realistically) someone would have to pay to buy them (and satisfy creditors).

Man City are on the list of creditors…they are owed £10.  Yes you read that correctly.

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Lot of money for a Lg1 club isn’t it?

How much do think (realistically) someone would have to pay to buy them (and satisfy creditors).

Man City are on the list of creditors…they are owed £10.  Yes you read that correctly.

If a new owner is to take on the debts surely they would expect to buy for a nominal sum?

Though it is complicated by there being 6 companies involved.

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Lot of money for a Lg1 club isn’t it?

How much do think (realistically) someone would have to pay to buy them (and satisfy creditors).

Man City are on the list of creditors…they are owed £10.  Yes you read that correctly.

The club has zero value, the fact that the day one investment will be in the 10s of millions and that is before you buy the stadium off another company means only an idiot would entertain the idea.

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33 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

How much do think (realistically) someone would have to pay to buy them (and satisfy creditors).

My best guess at the moment is that the cash needed to fund the football club to repay everyone would be around £70 million, plus the costs of the Administration.  That assumes that the funds owing to connected companies are not paid.  Bear in mind that HMRC are in a position to block any CVA in respect of the Football Club, so if they follow their published practice that is what will have to happen.

The split between Morris and any purchaser would need to be agreed.

Something about a barge pole springs to mind.

Liquidation still looks like a real outcome.

Edited by Hxj
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1 hour ago, Hxj said:

My best guess at the moment is that the cash needed to fund the football club to repay everyone would be around £70 million, plus the costs of the Administration.  That assumes that the funds owing to connected companies are not paid.  Bear in mind that HMRC are in a position to block any CVA in respect of the Football Club, so if they follow their published practice that is what will have to happen.

The split between Morris and any purchaser would need to be agreed.

Something about a barge pole springs to mind.

Liquidation still looks like a real outcome.

If liquidation is the outcome I wonder what the split regarding blame would be. EFL v Morris?

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Oh and if Morris found the £75 million to pay for the stadium he has paid in £198 million, plus the £55 million he wrote off in Sevco 5113 in the corporate restructuring which saw the Stadium group formed.

And let's assume that he contributed £13 million a year in line with EFL requirements, he joined in August 2015, so that would be the 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons or another £78 million.

So that makes a loss of around £325 million.

To create a business worth nothing.

 

Edited by Hxj
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Two quick Derby notes.

One positive- some of their fans looking to raise the amount they owe to St John's Ambulance at the time of administration. I'm a big critic but some credit there...then again it's £8k so it should be easy but credit to those who contribute.

https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/stjohndcfc?

On an amusing note, I listened into Radio Derby last week and their phone in after the -9 for FFP confirmed along with not contesting the -12. About 45 mins in on Tuesday's episode there was a pillock named David. Felt "cheated", how I laughed...bewildered.

Strong shades of the joker who runs their site not seeing administration coming at all- might try and post the link later/tomorrow. It's on catchup anyway. Wonder if it was him!

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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23 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

whether match day hospitality at Pride Park is home fans only

Any one can book as long as you go in disguise!  I was taken by a client about 10 years ago - we had a meeting at the Stadium and a tour beforehand - which given the state of Ashton Gate at the time was a revelation.

At the end of the tour we stood on the edge of the hallowed turf and got asked if we had any questions - "Where's the free bar mate?" was the response, luckily I was on the train and a taxi home!

 

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On 22/11/2021 at 21:17, Hxj said:

Any one can book as long as you go in disguise!  I was taken by a client about 10 years ago - we had a meeting at the Stadium and a tour beforehand - which given the state of Ashton Gate at the time was a revelation.

At the end of the tour we stood on the edge of the hallowed turf and got asked if we had any questions - "Where's the free bar mate?" was the response, luckily I was on the train and a taxi home!

 

Haha would definitely be going in disguise given some of the posts about Derby! More sensibly, yeah whatever corporate area dresscode is, no display of alliegance etc.

This might interest us all. The usual q's and special pleading but in amongst it, reference to suspension of withdrawal of membership. Wasn't aware it was even on the table!?

https://ramstrust.org.uk/wp/efl-response-to-ramstrust-questions/

Question 1.

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Haha would definitely be going in disguise given some of the posts about Derby! More sensibly, yeah whatever corporate area dresscode is, no display of alliegance etc.

This might interest us all. The usual q's and special pleading but in amongst it, reference to suspension of withdrawal of membership. Wasn't aware it was even on the table!?

https://ramstrust.org.uk/wp/efl-response-to-ramstrust-questions/

Question 1.

Yeh I saw that as well.

I wondered if it's automatically delivered upon entering administration? The EFL might feel they want the option to expel a club pretty quickly if an admin goes badly or liquidation becomes obvious. If they get the notice in straight away then the option is there ready to go. Might also explain why it's been withdrawn, as it seems the admin is going fairly smoothly.

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55 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh I saw that as well.

I wondered if it's automatically delivered upon entering administration? The EFL might feel they want the option to expel a club pretty quickly if an admin goes badly or liquidation becomes obvious. If they get the notice in straight away then the option is there ready to go. Might also explain why it's been withdrawn, as it seems the admin is going fairly smoothly.

Love the bit about not being able to play youngsters because that would mean they couldn’t get a free transfer in.  If Rooney thought they would’ve played normally, then why is looking at costlier players (albeit on free transfers)?  Cake an eat it.

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13 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh I saw that as well.

I wondered if it's automatically delivered upon entering administration? The EFL might feel they want the option to expel a club pretty quickly if an admin goes badly or liquidation becomes obvious. If they get the notice in straight away then the option is there ready to go. Might also explain why it's been withdrawn, as it seems the admin is going fairly smoothly.

Good point, might well be. Bury of course had fixtures suspended and were eventually expelled and Bolton seemed to have some kind of deadline/notice period. Bury were in an insolvency situation but still owned by Dale IIRC, and Bolton I think were in administration- it's harder to say how routine it is as those two played out in the public domain more than this one...Wigan I don't recall but that could be a difference between going into administration mid-season and the starting a season in administration.

12 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Love the bit about not being able to play youngsters because that would mean they couldn’t get a free transfer in.  If Rooney thought they would’ve played normally, then why is looking at costlier players (albeit on free transfers)?  Cake an eat it.

Cake and eat it big time.

Done a little bit of reading and this time DCFCFans seems to have an answer...it's in the articles of association somewhere.

1805021776_Screenshot_20211124-091609_Ac

Seems to cover it.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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Having said that, their administrators seem very bullish- and one tactic that was mooted could be a goer, which I've never heard of in a football context. Helping to fund a shortfall if needed through non-refundable deposits from prospective buyers.

They are also talking about putting the club and ground or club and ground companies back into one holding company...significant FFP issue there IMO, 20 year lease, rent- fair value rent for FFP purposes, of course the cost of the ground mooted as £20m ie the cost of MSD debenture.

Hope they survive off the pitch but feel that they deserve quite a hard landing financially speaking for a while.

https://ramstrust.org.uk/wp/supporters-group-meeting-with-quantuma-23-11-2021/

It also says that bids for players have been turned down.

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16 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Haha would definitely be going in disguise given some of the posts about Derby! More sensibly, yeah whatever corporate area dresscode is, no display of alliegance etc.

This might interest us all. The usual q's and special pleading but in amongst it, reference to suspension of withdrawal of membership. Wasn't aware it was even on the table!?

https://ramstrust.org.uk/wp/efl-response-to-ramstrust-questions/

Question 1.

Am I correct in recalling that the 'old' club shop used to stock subtle BCFC ties?  Tried to buy one online before heading to the Riverside but had no joy.  If anyone can find a source (I can't) i'd appreciate a link.  

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3 hours ago, JackofromSanJavier said:

Am I correct in recalling that the 'old' club shop used to stock subtle BCFC ties?  Tried to buy one online before heading to the Riverside but had no joy.  If anyone can find a source (I can't) i'd appreciate a link.  

I bought a club tie back in about 1992 so they defo used to sell them. 

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Thought I would update the Derby points position.  Hull wining three in a row and Cardiff two out of has not helped. Derby wining one and drawing two in the last three hasn't really made much impact,

As regards Derby -

With 22 (gross) points from 19 games that gives them a generous season total with no deduction of 53 points.  That would see them survive in all but one of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction a net score of 32 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Reading in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 49 points, with Cardiff & Hull on 18 points on target for an ungenerous 44 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in. Based on current performance Derby need 43 points from 27 games, in line with a 10th place performance.

 

Edited by Hxj
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1 minute ago, Hxj said:

Thought I would update the Derby points position.  Hull wining three in a row and Cardiff two out of has not helped Derby wining one and drawing two in the last three hasn't really made much impact,

As regards Derby -

With 22 (gross) points from 19 games that gives them a generous season total with no deduction of 53 points.  That would see them survive in all but one of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction a net score of 32 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Reading in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 49 points, with Cardiff & Hull on 18 points on target for an ungenerous 44 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in. Based on current performance Derby need 43 points from 27 games, in line with a 10th place performance.

Plus they have an already small squad, that may well get yet smaller in January. This is unlikely to increase their chances of winning points.

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51 minutes ago, cider11 said:

Derby still burning through cash, a £1.2mil loss in the last 8 weeks

It would help if journalists could understand what they are writing about!

Whilst the headline figure is a loss of £1.2 million the stated income includes a loan of £1.25 million from MSD.  The actual cash deficit for the football club was nearer £2.5 million which annualises to over £16 million a year.

 

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Had a quick look at it all, have to say their running costs are remarkably low for a Championship club- granted it's a snapshot but the whole club only costs in cash terms up to £20m or not much more than in a year to run??

No sign of rent, let alone arguably a fair value one on Pride Park either...hopefully the EFL are taking note.

Sevco 5112- to 30th June 2018

image.png.0161e1f87b994cf1ef6b00d8a1605e89.png

Cost of Sales was £52,576,437 and seems to have been a further £23,232,060 in administrative expenses.

Now after admittedly 2 months of a 12 month reporting period...

The latest picture

image.thumb.png.068dc7ae74d90de505fb8adc4f8c0a7e.png

Lots of devil in the detail- is this just club wages or inclusive of all up to and including PAYE, NI etc?

Remember too that this is cash it seems- e.g. MSD loan wouldn't count towards revenue for FFP and non cash items e.g. Depreciation and Amortisation of Player Registrations seem not to appear in this.

The running costs of the other companies appear to be non-existent though pretty much- unless they are all included in the above. Of course they are transferring revenue from the other companies to the club but the business expenses- hope the EFL are examining all of this forensically and have more detailed information to hand.

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

running costs are remarkably low for a Championship club

This is just cash in and cash out.  So if PAYE/NIC or any other cost hasn't actually been paid for it won't be shown.

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A bad weekend of results for Derby - Reading (21st), Cardiff (20th) and Hull (19th) all won.

With 22 (gross) points from 20 games Derby have a generous season total with no deduction of 51 points.  That would see them survive in all but one of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction that's net points of 30 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Reading in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 53 points (net of the six points), with Cardiff & Hull on 21 points on target for an ungenerous 48 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in. Based on current performance Derby need 47 points from 26 games, in line with a 3rd place performance.

They really need to win next Saturday to drag another club into the mix.

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30 minutes ago, Hxj said:

A bad weekend of results for Derby - Reading (21st), Cardiff (20th) and Hull (19th) all won.

With 22 (gross) points from 20 games Derby have a generous season total with no deduction of 51 points.  That would see them survive in all but one of the last 10 seasons. 

With the 21 point deduction that's net points of 30 that would see them relegated in all of the last 10 seasons.

However Reading in 21st place are currently on target for an ungenerous 53 points (net of the six points), with Cardiff & Hull on 21 points on target for an ungenerous 48 points.  This simply demonstrates the nearly impossible position Derby are in. Based on current performance Derby need 47 points from 26 games, in line with a 3rd place performance.

They really need to win next Saturday to drag another club into the mix.

Tonight’s result will not have helped and, hopefully, the late winner will have disillusioned them and made them less competitive for Saturday.

Was it against Derby that Semenyo got his harsh red card?

If it was, perhaps he will play and score to get his revenge.

Edited by PHILINFRANCE
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