Reality Bites - The Cupboard is Bare - Sell to Buy

[Ska Junkie]

21 minutes ago, YorkshireSection said:

I'd be surprised if Nige went to SL wanting a particular striker, one that had been on his wanted list from the start, that maybe cost a fee, that SL wouldn't back him; despite what's been said. 

I think it's more about not being frivolous and maybe getting a couple off the wage bill, a few out on loan and yeah if possible selling the correct player/s.

I believe SL will back NP, maybe not in the way he let that little idiot waste money hand over fist.

I'm in agreement YS.

IF BN has gone to SL, for example, saying he wants to sign JCH at £5M and we don't have enough in the pot, selling to make up any shortfall makes perfect sense, as long as we stay within certain financial boundaries.

We're all in the same boat apart from the relegated sides TBH.

Purely hypothetical about JCH BTW.

[Ska Junkie]

I guess another way of looking at it is squad numbers. BN wants a smaller squad. It might not be about money at all although I'm sure it must be.

[WarksRobin]

5 hours ago, Murraysrightplum said:

Surely some concessions will be made for FFP given the circumstances of the pandemic? Has that been announced yet? Clubs will have huge losses based on something that was impossible to plan for. If the rules remain for the period that no fans were allowed in the stadiums it would be frankly ridiculous 

FFP is in place to stop clubs spending beyond their means. Now would entirely the wrong time to relax the restrictions! Income is down therefore costs must come down

[firstdivision]

2 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

But Pearson isn't starting from the same place as Johnson, so the comparison doesn't make sense. 

Johnson was given millions upon millions to spend, Pearson takes over in a completely different financial climate.

Johnson was able to sell Kodjia for £11 million and replace him with Tammy Abraham. Pearson has been forced to consider Third Division centre forwards. 

Johnson had the room to bring in 25 players - 25! - over the course of his first full season. Pearson is in a straight jacket and has managed 4 with little prospect of many more. 

Pearson hasn't inherited a team with a solid base, a squad built on promotion winning champions. He's inherited a squad where half the players have been kicked out and the remaining half were either utterly woeful or injured for most the last season.

If both inherited similar squads with similar capacity for signings, I know which one I'd be backing to finish highest - it would be the one who's got a proven record of actually winning things and achieving success, not the one full of hot air who's achieved sweet fa.

I'd be putting my house on the one who's walked the walk, not the one who's done nothing but talk the talk. 

    

Well, LJ did get us to 8th, our second highest finishing position in forty years. And we also made it to a cup semi-final for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Johnson also sold players for millions as well. Just the C£15m profit on Webster alone in one season.

But I’m happy, if you’re happy, to give Big Nice a free pass for three years on the basis that Ashton and Johnson totally destroyed the club, leaving us…um, still in the Championship. 

[the1stknowle]

6 hours ago, harvey54 said:

Am I the only person that thinks that if Nige isn't given money to spend at some point in the next year he'll be off? If he has a reasonable season with us surely a bigger club will come for him?

I'm sure he's aware that our owner is one of the wealthiest men in the country and might expect him to open his wallet and try to get us to the Premier league one day. 

If Lansdown has any ambition at all, surely he'll know this? I know he's invested millions over the years and without him we'd be fubar but I don't know if Nige will hang around being fed freebies and playing kids. Only time will tell I suppose.

To go where though? Post-pandemic football finance is different Ambition for a championship club is probably not having a firesale just to stay afloat. For me, nothing NP has said is that bad/surprising and, as he was given the job mid-pandemic, he will have joined with his eyes open to the reality of EFL football finance now. You can see that by way he talks about Liam Walsh deal today.

[Robbored]

1 minute ago, Marco the red said:

We were dreadful and very very lucky.

We were dreadful for sure but luck had no part in avoiding the drop. The table doesn’t lie.

[Numero Uno]

13 minutes ago, firstdivision said:

Well, LJ did get us to 8th, our second highest finishing position in forty years. And we also made it to a cup semi-final for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Johnson also sold players for millions as well. Just the C£15m profit on Webster alone in one season.

But I’m happy, if you’re happy, to give Big Nice a free pass for three years on the basis that Ashton and Johnson totally destroyed the club, leaving us…um, still in the Championship. 

Ashton almost destroyed the club, not Johnson tbf, Whether you rate a Manager or not there is always that option, or should be anyway, of the CEO or Owner saying "No Lee, that's not the way we are moving forward" or "you have sixteen midfield players on the books already, enough's enough".

Teflon almost destroyed the club with one comment about Fam..........because if we had ended up in League 1, Pearson would have pissed off, half of the remaining players at the club would have slapped in a transfer request, season ticket sales would have been at around 8K if we were lucky and it would have been a bloody hard slog from where we were to get back into the Championship for a few seasons at least and that's assuming that Lansdown wouldn't have just said "sod this" and walked at some point.

You say Nigel has a "free pass".....wow....he has a lot of hard work ahead of him to get this club punching at the right level in the Championship again......the only thing working in his favour is we do APPEAR to have an Academy that is starting to look like it's fit for purpose for the first time given the level we play at. That is where gains will be made imo.

[Numero Uno]

28 minutes ago, Robbored said:

We were dreadful for sure but luck had no part in avoiding the drop. The table doesn’t lie.

I think you are playing with semantics a little bit!! You are correct, we finished where we finished and that's that BUT we won a load of games up front, somewhat fortuitously in the main, a couple when Pearson first joined when we had one or two incidents with goalkeepers smashing the ball at Semenyo go our way. You make your own luck I know but the point is it wouldn't have taken a huge swing in fortune for us to find ourselves kicking off in League 1 this season......even Nige said another month and we would have been gone.

However, we stayed up and Big Nige can at least prepare for an all out assault on the middle of the table now................

[firstdivision]

25 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Ashton almost destroyed the club, not Johnson tbf, Whether you rate a Manager or not there is always that option, or should be anyway, of the CEO or Owner saying "No Lee, that's not the way we are moving forward" or "you have sixteen midfield players on the books already, enough's enough".

Teflon almost destroyed the club with one comment about Fam..........because if we had ended up in League 1, Pearson would have pissed off, half of the remaining players at the club would have slapped in a transfer request, season ticket sales would have been at around 8K if we were lucky and it would have been a bloody hard slog from where we were to get back into the Championship for a few seasons at least and that's assuming that Lansdown wouldn't have just said "sod this" and walked at some point.

You say Nigel has a "free pass".....wow....he has a lot of hard work ahead of him to get this club punching at the right level in the Championship again......the only thing working in his favour is we do APPEAR to have an Academy that is starting to look like it's fit for purpose for the first time given the level we play at. That is where gains will be made imo.

To be clear: I absolutely don’t think he has a free pass. But I get the impression that some of our supporters are overly indulgent of him. I thought we were a shambles under him last season. I was surprised how little effect he had on the team. Worryingly so.

But let’s see how he goes.

 

[Numero Uno]

1 minute ago, firstdivision said:

To be clear: I absolutely don’t think he has a free pass. But I get the impression that some of our supporters are overly indulgent of him. I thought we were a shambles under him last season. I was surprised how little effect he had on the team. Worryingly so.

But let’s see how he goes.

 

If the issues we had at the end of last season were to persist then yes your concerns would be totally justified. I don't think we are going to start smashing teams up any time soon though, it will be slow progress imo but as long as the lads are giving it their all this season and that progress is being made I'm happy for now. As you say, we just have to wait on that.

[Malago]

It’s not as if other championship clubs have an advantage over us.  Apart from the  relegated clubs with their PP we’re all in the same boat.   

[Robbored]

9 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

I think you are playing with semantics a little bit!! You are correct, we finished where we finished and that's that BUT we won a load of games up front, somewhat fortuitously in the main, a couple when Pearson first joined when we had one or two incidents with goalkeepers smashing the ball at Semenyo go our way. You make your own luck I know but the point is it wouldn't have taken a huge swing in fortune for us to find ourselves kicking off in League 1 this season......even Nige said another month and we would have been gone.

However, we stayed up and Big Nige can at least prepare for an all out assault on the middle of the table now................

Not semantics at all - hard facts. 
 

Should Nige get us to mid table which is certainly possible then most of us would be happy with that but I have a strong feeling that he’ll get us up and around the pray-offs and I’d definitely be delighted with that.

[Numero Uno]

1 minute ago, Robbored said:

Not semantics at all - hard facts. 
 

Should Nige get us to mid table which is certainly possible then most of us would be happy with that but I have a strong feeling that he’ll get us up and around the pray-offs and I’d definitely be delighted with that.

Not sure we've got any real squad depth to suggest we can challenge the top 6. Would be great if it happens but a relatively stress free mid-table finish for windows 1-2 in the Big Nige era will do me just fine.

[havanatopia]

18 minutes ago, Malago said:

It’s not as if other championship clubs have an advantage over us.  Apart from the  relegated clubs with their PP we’re all in the same boat.   

I think the gap between the relegated trio and most of the rest will be even starker this season

[havanatopia]

14 hours ago, pillred said:

Again, how many times have we been in this position it's a cliché but we never learn. 

You could say that about virtually every club in the land.

6 hours ago, GrahamC said:

 

I am quite looking forward to a fully fit Martin and Weimann. We can always benefit from another striker but I do not see us with a front line any weaker than a lot of other clubs in the division.

[Offside]

Maybe having to cut our cloth is a good thing. There was so much wasted money in the Ashton/LJ era, quantity over quality, with players in and out of the side and on the periphery of the team. 

[Merrick's Marvels]

2 hours ago, firstdivision said:

Well, LJ did get us to 8th, our second highest finishing position in forty years. And we also made it to a cup semi-final for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Johnson also sold players for millions as well. Just the C£15m profit on Webster alone in one season.

But I’m happy, if you’re happy, to give Big Nice a free pass for three years on the basis that Ashton and Johnson totally destroyed the club, leaving us…um, still in the Championship. 

Excellent, we're both happy!

[BLRed]

I have a feeling we will focus on being tough to beat this year and could see a good few 1-0 wins that historically would have been losses. I’m wondering if we’ll go 4-4-2 with Weimann and wells up top, semenyo and o’dowda out wide

[Murraysrightplum]

7 hours ago, WarksRobin said:

FFP is in place to stop clubs spending beyond their means. Now would entirely the wrong time to relax the restrictions! Income is down therefore costs must come down

Not sure I follow this logic. Maybe you think people shouldn’t have been furloughed either? Just sell the house if you can’t afford the mortgage with no income 

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, Murraysrightplum said:

Not sure I follow this logic. Maybe you think people shouldn’t have been furloughed either? Just sell the house if you can’t afford the mortgage with no income 

FFP has been relaxed, but by the same token clubs should also have been doing their bit to adapt to the new financial climate.

[downendcity]

5 hours ago, Malago said:

It’s not as if other championship clubs have an advantage over us.  Apart from the  relegated clubs with their PP we’re all in the same boat.   

All in the same boat, but able seaman Derby has been walking the plank, albeit the EFL has now made the plank over 100 metres long!

[havanatopia]

30 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

FFP has been relaxed, but by the same token clubs should also have been doing their bit to adapt to the new financial climate.

Agreed but will some now knowingly bend the rules in the coming season having seen what Derby have got away with?

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, havanatopia said:

Agreed but will some now knowingly bend the rules in the coming season having seen what Derby have got away with?

Derby have got away with the stadium sale imho….but we have to wait and see restated accounts now, and what happens then.

[WarksRobin]

1 hour ago, Murraysrightplum said:

Not sure I follow this logic. Maybe you think people shouldn’t have been furloughed either? Just sell the house if you can’t afford the mortgage with no income 

Strange logic. Football finances were unsustainable before the pandemic. Furlough is/was a temporary measure to support workers and companies who were sustainable before the pandemic. 
 

Why would I think furlough is a bad thing in those circumstances?

[Murraysrightplum]

8 hours ago, WarksRobin said:

Strange logic. Football finances were unsustainable before the pandemic. Furlough is/was a temporary measure to support workers and companies who were sustainable before the pandemic. 
 

Why would I think furlough is a bad thing in those circumstances?

There have been almost no clubs go out of business in recent memory. Compared to the % of normal businesses that go bust I would say it is incredibly sustainable.

My only point is only that clubs should be allowed to return to some sort of business as usual with regard to fan attendance and income before FFP rules come back into play

[WarksRobin]

7 minutes ago, Murraysrightplum said:

There have been almost no clubs go out of business in recent memory. Compared to the % of normal businesses that go bust I would say it is incredibly sustainable.

My only point is only that clubs should be allowed to return to some sort of business as usual with regard to fan attendance and income before FFP rules come back into play

If you think spending >100% of income on wages is a sustainable business strategy then fair enough

On your second point, I fully agree. Let’s hope things get back to a pre-pandemic status quo quickly

[Murraysrightplum]

16 minutes ago, WarksRobin said:

If you think spending >100% of income on wages is a sustainable business strategy then fair enough

On your second point, I fully agree. Let’s hope things get back to a pre-pandemic status quo quickly

It is demonstrably a sustainable strategy in football. Not saying I agree with it

[downendcity]

3 hours ago, Murraysrightplum said:

It is demonstrably a sustainable strategy in football. Not saying I agree with it

A financial strategy dependant on the owner retaining the means and the will to continue to underwrite substantial losses, primarily caused due to the players wage bill, strikes me as being anything but demonstrably sustainable. 

None of the owners of football clubs would entertain such a financial situation in any other of their businesses. If they did/had then they would never have acquired the wealth that enabled them to enter into ownership in the first place.

Over the last 2/3 years how many times have I read Derby fans saying that they are being hard done by because Mel Morris is a lifelong fan and would never leave them in the financial lurch. For how long now has that lifelong fan been trying to offload the club?

Has he had enough?

Is he concerned about how much a drain on his personal finances the football club has become?

Is it a combination of both?

Whatever, if I was a Derby fan I would be genuinely concerned about the financial wellbeing of the club, especially so if they are subject to any further EFL sanctions - which will not help any future sale What will happen if they are unable to find a buyer and Morris is no longer willing  to keep funding losses? 

We’ve got to a position where we all assume the strategy is sustainable because, if the current owner has had enough ( for whatever reason),  there will always be another wealthy “mug" coming along, enticed by the glamour of football club ownership and prepared to throw away huge amounts of his accumulated wealth in the quest for the glory of taking their club into the premier league. If Morris is unable to quickly find a buyer we might well be close to discovering how unsustainable the present financial strategy really is.

For the sake of Derby fans I hope we don't find out!

[Murraysrightplum]

It’s demonstrably sustainable because clubs by and large survive. Not saying it’s the right way to run a club and that’s what FFP is all about.

Companies outside of football post huge losses all the time. They raise/borrow money and do things differently or someone comes in and buys them… or they go out of business. 

[downendcity]

2 minutes ago, Murraysrightplum said:

It’s demonstrably sustainable because clubs by and large survive. Not saying it’s the right way to run a club and that’s what FFP is all about.

Companies outside of football post huge losses all the time. They raise/borrow money and do things differently or someone comes in and buys them… or they go out of business. 

This is the crucial issue with football.

Everyone is doing things pretty well the same, with the same outcome and problems resulting, but none seems to have the will to do things in a different way to avoid those problems.

What’s the old definition of madness -  continuing to do  the same things in just  the same way, but expecting a different result to occur

Perhaps the new contracts for Weimann and Baker are an indication of reality starting to come into play for both club and players ( and agents). The cynic in me thinks this might be more to do with both players age/injury records/covid situation and that when things eventually get back to normal we will again see a free for all on wage negotiations. It will be interesting to see where realised players end up and on what terms they secure new contracts and it could be that the current situation precipitates a correction to wage demands, even if it is only a slight adjustment.