Talksport today - review of the Championship

[Hampshire Red]

Hawksby & Jacobs with 'expert' analyst rviewed our league before going on to define League ! as now the most open and competitive league in Britain. They interviewed Gary Sweet, CEO of Luton, spoke of every club with good (WBA, Sheff U and Fulham) chances of being promoted. He said Luton would be happy to just stay up before moving to their new ground.

Bet 365  are offering 16-1 to the next favourites after Bomo at 9-1 and also Bristol City 7/2 to be relegated with only Blackpool, Posh and Hudders more likely for the drop. Let's hope the bookies have got this horribly wrong having been so used to being competitive at the other end of the table until the Covid period

 

[Unan]

Bookies odds are designed to maximise profit, not to accurately predict results.

[Sturny]

I imagine we only appear like that because people have betted on us being relegated?

I can understand those who look at our club from an outside point of view and see how we're staring down a possible relegation, obviously as fans we know more. But from the outside it looks like we had an atrocious finish to last season (which we undeniably did) and haven't brought in any serious talent to immediately correct that. People betting on that may also not have known the amount of injuries we suffered last season. 

[DaveF]

31 minutes ago, Hampshire Red said:

Hawksby & Jacobs with 'expert' analyst rviewed our league before going on to define League ! as now the most open and competitive league in Britain. They interviewed Gary Sweet, CEO of Luton, spoke of every club with good (WBA, Sheff U and Fulham) chances of being promoted. He said Luton would be happy to just stay up before moving to their new ground.

Bet 365  are offering 16-1 to the next favourites after Bomo at 9-1 and also Bristol City 7/2 to be relegated with only Blackpool, Posh and Hudders more likely for the drop. Let's hope the bookies have got this horribly wrong having been so used to being competitive at the other end of the table until the Covid period

 

Those odds to be relegated probably don't include Derby.

[Pickle Rick]

3 minutes ago, DaveF said:

Those odds to be relegated probably don't include Derby.

What's the point in having odds for Derby getting relegated

You'll get more back from a savings account in 12 months time

[DaveF]

2 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said:

What's the point in having odds for Derby getting relegated

You'll get more back from a savings account in 12 months time

Very true! But my point is that that puts us at the dizzying heights of 20th according to the bookies.

[downendcity]

56 minutes ago, Sturny said:

I imagine we only appear like that because people have betted on us being relegated?

Or perhaps because, based on our league form for the last 4/5 months of last season and until form is established in the new season, we do look among the most likely candidates for relegation - sadly! 

[phantom]

1 hour ago, Sturny said:

I imagine we only appear like that because people have betted on us being relegated?

I can understand those who look at our club from an outside point of view and see how we're staring down a possible relegation, obviously as fans we know more. But from the outside it looks like we had an atrocious finish to last season (which we undeniably did) and haven't brought in any serious talent to immediately correct that. People betting on that may also not have known the amount of injuries we suffered last season. 

Exactly my thoughts too, lazy journalism but then again we know that outlets like this rarely look much further than those sides that yoyo with the Prem

[Cannybluff]

7/2 means about a 22% relegation chance... so a 78% chance of staying up 

[Sturny]

1 minute ago, Cannybluff said:

7/2 means about a 22% relegation chance... so a 78% chance of staying up 

22% on 78%....sounds an awful a lot like the possession we had last season 

[weepywall]

21 minutes ago, Cannybluff said:

7/2 means about a 22% relegation chance... so a 78% chance of staying up 

Looks much better that way

[Mr Popodopolous]

I look at the squads- it's always possible for someone to win the playoffs, but right now as it stands I don't see anything other than these 3 going back up sadly.

Brentford had an excellent, unique model that enabled them to compete- they're now up. Barnsley could have been another, but Murphy, Ismael, Mowatt- all gone! That's that for them for the foreseeable top 6 wise IMO. Playoffs are playoffs and anything can happen, maybe someone can emerge from the pack, but right now looking at the squads and the retention, the new managers- I just can't see beyond these 3 relegated this year which is terrible. They all with the possible exception of Fulham depending on their financial position, still have scope just to tighten up one or two areas with suitable additions too- maybe loans.

As for us, won't go up but barring ridiculous injuries or other disasters can't see us going down either- mid-table or more likely perhaps lower mid-table?

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I look at the squads- it's always possible for someone to win the playoffs, but right now as it stands I don't see anything other than these 3 going back up sadly.

Brentford had an excellent, unique model that enabled them to compete- they're now up. Barnsley could have been another, but Murphy, Ismael, Mowatt- all gone! That's that for them for the foreseeable top 6 wise IMO. Playoffs are playoffs and anything can happen, maybe someone can emerge from the pack, but right now looking at the squads and the retention, the new managers- I just can't see beyond these 3 relegated this year which is terrible. They all with the possible exception of Fulham depending on their financial position, still have scope just to tighten up one or two areas with suitable additions too- maybe loans.

As for us, won't go up but barring ridiculous injuries or other disasters can't see us going down either- mid-table or more likely perhaps lower mid-table?

Nor Dike, nor Sollbauer - key to their high press (together with sweeper-keeper Collins).

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Nor Dike, nor Sollbauer - key to their high press (together with sweeper-keeper Collins).

Had a quick look at Wiki, Sollbauer played 37 games for them last season- could be a hole there.

Dike was only realistic to join permanently given the mooted fee had they gone up. Think they might be lower midtable/bottom 3rd this coming season.

[Hampshire Red]

I think 7/2 is 27% and bookies have teams of people prepping these odds. I think these are the worst odds we have had pre-season for more than 8 years but hey, what do bookies know?

[TV Tom]

7/2 looks massive considering our form last year, we’re  putting a Lot of faith in our very young strikers and new experienced midfielders 

[Simon bristol]

2 hours ago, phantom said:

Exactly my thoughts too, lazy journalism but then again we know that outlets like this rarely look much further than those sides that yoyo with the Prem

To be fair, our top striker left for free and hasnt been replaced, and our results in the second half of last season resulted in a miracle that we werent relegated then, so while the journalists might be lazy, you can see why they might think we are rubbish

[cityloyal473]

Despite growing optimism, I see us challenging mid-lower table rather than top half.  As long as we are competitive, play with some balls and passion, it'll be a big improvement on last season.  With the best will in the world, the current squad - largely made up of players from last season - is not going to go from egg beaters to world beaters. And i'll settle for that.  

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

4 hours ago, Hampshire Red said:

He said Luton would be happy to just stay up before moving to their new ground.

Bet 365  are offering 16-1 to the next favourites after Bomo at 9-1 and also Bristol City 7/2 to be relegated 

 

Bet365 still have us at 11/2.

I think Skybet were offering 7/2 the last time I looked?

Edit: 4/1 now.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I look at the squads- it's always possible for someone to win the playoffs, but right now as it stands I don't see anything other than these 3 going back up sadly.

Brentford had an excellent, unique model that enabled them to compete- they're now up. Barnsley could have been another, but Murphy, Ismael, Mowatt- all gone! That's that for them for the foreseeable top 6 wise IMO. Playoffs are playoffs and anything can happen, maybe someone can emerge from the pack, but right now looking at the squads and the retention, the new managers- I just can't see beyond these 3 relegated this year which is terrible. They all with the possible exception of Fulham depending on their financial position, still have scope just to tighten up one or two areas with suitable additions too- maybe loans.

As for us, won't go up but barring ridiculous injuries or other disasters can't see us going down either- mid-table or more likely perhaps lower mid-table?

 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Nor Dike, nor Sollbauer - key to their high press (together with sweeper-keeper Collins).

Barnsley were so good in 2019/20, then I felt this time last year it was fairly clear that they had potential to build on it, and they duly did. They've signed a bunch of young centre forwards, but I can't see that they've replaced those workhorses that made them tick last year. So, I agree, the keys to that success, and that system, have departed and it would be  miracle for them to repeat last season's heroics.

As for us, well we were shite before swapping Johnson for Holden and getting a ton of injuries, so again last season really wasn't too surprising. This season I really cannot place us. People talk about our squad churn freshening things up...but honestly we've not churned that much really. Our top 3 players from last season in terms of minutes played are still here - that is Bentley, Kalas, and Vyner I believe - and in comparison to the rest of the division we are far from the most-changed squad. See below, correct as of 28 July.

In fact, of the 11 players that played the most minutes last season, only 3 have left (Hunt, Rowe and Diedhiou). So most of the most culpable are still busying themselves at the "High Performance" centre. I think we're going to be pretty toothless again, pretty lacklustre going forward, and it's going to be a season of fairly dull football where we sneak the odd win against the run of play. It's a pessimistic view, but I've not seen much in pre-season to give me a real reason to expect long-term, sustainable improvement.

I'm also conscious that the below graphic only tells you who has left each squad, and doesn't detail who has joined each club. We know who has joined us, and although I think James, King, and Atkinson will improve us I'm not sure they're the players to catapult us into the top 6.

Derby seem to be a given to be relegated, joining them I'd probably lump for Huddersfield as a slight shock, and then one of Hull or Blackpool. 

At the top I'd actually fancy Bournemouth to top the division. Begovic is a big loss but other than him they've retained most of their first team and Parker is now a seasoned manager. I think Billing could well be player of the season come next summer.

The ex-Prem teams will no doubt be strong. Fulham have signed some heavyweights-  Wilson is a big capture, Gazzinaga is likely to be the best keeper in the division, and Seri, Kamara and Le Marchand have all come back from loan. However, they've lost a large number of last season's squad, so they may take time to settle into it. I am not sure they are truly the champions elect that many have them pegged as.

It's a very hard division to call this season. The mid-table should be as congested and changeable as always. Many teams, including our own, are capable or even likely to spend a few weeks in each of the top 6 or bottom 3 before finally settling into mid-table irrelevance.

Overall I really cannot believe it's all starting again so soon!

[phantom]

38 minutes ago, Simon bristol said:

To be fair, our top striker left for free and hasnt been replaced, and our results in the second half of last season resulted in a miracle that we werent relegated then, so while the journalists might be lazy, you can see why they might think we are rubbish

Isn't that being lazy though? 

Did Fam really make that much of an all round impact? 

Have we released the weak links? 

Have we recruited better quality?

[Robbored]

48 minutes ago, phantom said:

Did Fam really make that much of an all round impact? 

He was useful in both boxes but not suited to a high press and that was a disadvantage. Limited our options

Have we released the weak links? 
I think so.

Have we recruited better quality?

I’d say so. James and King are both good additions as is Atkinson. Better than what we had last season.

 

[DT The Optimist]

There was another thread re optimism for the coming season, with as per normal a variance of views. … and there can be little doubt we are in a far better place now than end of last season…. Our midfield is better, the defence most likely improved with Atkinson and a ‘fit’ Baker…the emergence of real talented young players..

so why doom and gloom. I doubt if bookies or opposing fans who have a flutter on a new season really have a clue about Matty James, or a fit Williams, so we are mid table for sure and might ruffle a few feathers still.. enjoy the ride.  

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Simon bristol said:

To be fair, our top striker left for free and hasnt been replaced, and our results in the second half of last season resulted in a miracle that we werent relegated then, so while the journalists might be lazy, you can see why they might think we are rubbish

Our top scorer in the Champ last season is still here.

We tend to judge on league goals in the main dont we?

Yes, he played more minutes in the league, but as a centre forward (either alone or as a pair) Fam started 23 games (9g 1a), Wells started 21 games (10g 3a), with several more from left wing admittedly.

Even if we include cup, Nahki was still our top scorer last season….11g 4a, Fam 10g 1a.  That might surprise a few!

Of course, very easy to point at stats and mislead, but it does show Nahki in better goalscoring light than many think….especially those who though Fam was our top scorer.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

Barnsley were so good in 2019/20, then I felt this time last year it was fairly clear that they had potential to build on it, and they duly did. They've signed a bunch of young centre forwards, but I can't see that they've replaced those workhorses that made them tick last year. So, I agree, the keys to that success, and that system, have departed and it would be  miracle for them to repeat last season's heroics.

As for us, well we were shite before swapping Johnson for Holden and getting a ton of injuries, so again last season really wasn't too surprising. This season I really cannot place us. People talk about our squad churn freshening things up...but honestly we've not churned that much really. Our top 3 players from last season in terms of minutes played are still here - that is Bentley, Kalas, and Vyner I believe - and in comparison to the rest of the division we are far from the most-changed squad. See below, correct as of 28 July.

In fact, of the 11 players that played the most minutes last season, only 3 have left (Hunt, Rowe and Diedhiou). So most of the most culpable are still busying themselves at the "High Performance" centre. I think we're going to be pretty toothless again, pretty lacklustre going forward, and it's going to be a season of fairly dull football where we sneak the odd win against the run of play. It's a pessimistic view, but I've not seen much in pre-season to give me a real reason to expect long-term, sustainable improvement.

I'm also conscious that the below graphic only tells you who has left each squad, and doesn't detail who has joined each club. We know who has joined us, and although I think James, King, and Atkinson will improve us I'm not sure they're the players to catapult us into the top 6.

Derby seem to be a given to be relegated, joining them I'd probably lump for Huddersfield as a slight shock, and then one of Hull or Blackpool. 

At the top I'd actually fancy Bournemouth to top the division. Begovic is a big loss but other than him they've retained most of their first team and Parker is now a seasoned manager. I think Billing could well be player of the season come next summer.

The ex-Prem teams will no doubt be strong. Fulham have signed some heavyweights-  Wilson is a big capture, Gazzinaga is likely to be the best keeper in the division, and Seri, Kamara and Le Marchand have all come back from loan. However, they've lost a large number of last season's squad, so they may take time to settle into it. I am not sure they are truly the champions elect that many have them pegged as.

It's a very hard division to call this season. The mid-table should be as congested and changeable as always. Many teams, including our own, are capable or even likely to spend a few weeks in each of the top 6 or bottom 3 before finally settling into mid-table irrelevance.

Overall I really cannot believe it's all starting again so soon!

Derby might be boosted by the return of fans, bigger crowds can be worth a few extra points. Huddersfield, Hull and Blackpool are looking suspect as you say.

I'm unsure on Bournemouth. Oh there's quality, but is there quantity? Begovic has gone, you can add Rico to that list, Marcondes, Leeds Leif Davis (LB) loan in for him but he was a regular.

Also from an already relatively thin squad, unreplaced are Carter-Vickers could argue Wilshere by Marcondes, Riquelme (not that one) also gone from midfield Long was on loan and Surridge on the books- no longer there and sold respectively.

Sheffield United have a pretty settled squad, fans back (Bramall Lane pretty atmospheric bound to help), Jokanovic and financial headroom. Unsure why they couldn't go at it.

As it stands however, barring departures the relegated sides really have strong squads. Sheffield United probably need another ball playing/carrying LCB, O'Connell injured as he is, CM and attacker? WBA I expect could do with another striker, maybe one other for depth- though Johnstone and Pereira could be off and that definitely would change that.

Fulham spine:

Gazzaniga, Adarbioyo, Cairney, Mitrovic. Then there's Wilson providing that service, Reed also in CM, Knockaert, Cavaleiro, Bobby Reid-if Mawson was to get fit again that'd be a major boost, they're stacked. Robinson at LB, quite a few are PL standard and nobody sold. Anguissa another player with PL, International, La Liga experience, aged 25.

[Simon bristol]

2 hours ago, phantom said:

Isn't that being lazy though? 

Did Fam really make that much of an all round impact? 

Have we released the weak links? 

Have we recruited better quality?

In my view, fam had more if an impact than martin and wells and was our best striker, certainly before he downed tools from january onwards anyway.

certainly for some of the players like rowe and hunt we released the weak links, but a lot of this was down to reducing the wage bill too. I dont know if weve recruited better quality, james looked good against villa, hopefully atkinson adapts quickly to the championship, but will king play more and get more goals than pato, and is simpson better than hunt?

1.5 for atkinson is a lot of money in this market, could we have used that for a striker?

[Simon bristol]

49 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Our top scorer in the Champ last season is still here.

We tend to judge on league goals in the main dont we?

Yes, he played more minutes in the league, but as a centre forward (either alone or as a pair) Fam started 23 games (9g 1a), Wells started 21 games (10g 3a), with several more from left wing admittedly.

Even if we include cup, Nahki was still our top scorer last season….11g 4a, Fam 10g 1a.  That might surprise a few!

Of course, very easy to point at stats and mislead, but it does show Nahki in better goalscoring light than many think….especially those who though Fam was our top scorer.

 

My thought was that fam was our top striker, whether wells scored 1 more last season i dont think he is close to being as effective as fam overall, and im sure not many will consider the signing of wells to have been a success at this point, especially given the fee/ wages and resell value. Id love to see wells get 20 this season but that seems very optimistic to me? I just cant see where the goals will come from unfortunately 

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Simon bristol said:

My thought was that fam was our top striker, whether wells scored 1 more last season i dont think he is close to being as effective as fam overall, and im sure not many will consider the signing of wells to have been a success at this point, especially given the fee/ wages and resell value. Id love to see wells get 20 this season but that seems very optimistic to me? I just cant see where the goals will come from unfortunately 

That’s fine, all about opinions innit!

[RedRock]

My worry is a key fundamental hasn’t seemingly been addressed. Where are the chances being created?
 

Dasilva and Vyner I don’t see as great crossers. Indeed, I can’t recall a Vyner cross. Ever. That leaves CoD and I still haven’t a clue what he brings to the team and Weimann who, again, is a non crosser. So the likes of Martin is wasted.

That leaves us coming through the middle. Palmer is more miss than hit and hasn’t formed a partnership with any attacker, Bakinson likewise. Other options untested.

Really interested to see Nige’s game plan in the Blackpool match. We will know to a large degree after that whether there’s a solution or our struggle to score will last another season. My fear is Nige is relying on CoD to deliver and we know how that will turn out.

[Hampshire Red]

Simon, you are right. Icant believe how one or two people who post regularly and clearly watch City (albeit on tv) ever rated Wells. Perhaps they are the same that questioned Fam because the latter has  really done a very good job over 3 seasons for us. He workrate and effort away from home when the lone forward, his defensive qualities and his goals wil be long remembered. I hope to be wrong on Wells buti just think he's awful