FFP / New Striker

[Sniper]

This is a valid question and with not being a FFP guru can someone who is answer this please.

And before all the FFS comments, and don't you know there's a pandemic on, and we've had no revenue for 18 months, I DO KNOW THAT!

Is FFP all about what is coming in money wise? and what is allowed to be spent?

How close are we to that line? Thinking about the Webster/Kelly/Brownhill money that came in.

If I'm having a bad month and want to buy something urgent, but it will make me overdrawn, I'll take it out my savings, then put it back when I get paid. I know I'm going to have to fork out whether that be now or down the line, so the money is coming out whatever.

We need a striker whether that be now or down the line. At the moment surely a striker will be cheaper, so why not buy one now? or will that bust our FFP?

Oh, and obviously grateful to SL for sanctioning the Atkinson deal, so maybe that took us to the FFP line?

[ohhhshauntaylor]

13 minutes ago, Sniper said:

This is a valid question and with not being a FFP guru can someone who is answer this please.

And before all the FFS comments, and don't you know there's a pandemic on, and we've had no revenue for 18 months, I DO KNOW THAT!

Is FFP all about what is coming in money wise? and what is allowed to be spent?

How close are we to that line? Thinking about the Webster/Kelly/Brownhill money that came in.

If I'm having a bad month and want to buy something urgent, but it will make me overdrawn, I'll take it out my savings, then put it back when I get paid. I know I'm going to have to fork out whether that be now or down the line, so the money is coming out whatever.

We need a striker whether that be now or down the line. At the moment surely a striker will be cheaper, so why not buy one now? or will that bust our FFP?

Oh, and obviously grateful to SL for sanctioning the Atkinson deal, so maybe that took us to the FFP line?

@Davefevs

[Busterrimes]

20 minutes ago, Sniper said:

This is a valid question and with not being a FFP guru can someone who is answer this please.

And before all the FFS comments, and don't you know there's a pandemic on, and we've had no revenue for 18 months, I DO KNOW THAT!

Is FFP all about what is coming in money wise? and what is allowed to be spent?

How close are we to that line? Thinking about the Webster/Kelly/Brownhill money that came in.

If I'm having a bad month and want to buy something urgent, but it will make me overdrawn, I'll take it out my savings, then put it back when I get paid. I know I'm going to have to fork out whether that be now or down the line, so the money is coming out whatever.

We need a striker whether that be now or down the line. At the moment surely a striker will be cheaper, so why not buy one now? or will that bust our FFP?

Oh, and obviously grateful to SL for sanctioning the Atkinson deal, so maybe that took us to the FFP line?

@Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Sniper said:

This is a valid question and with not being a FFP guru can someone who is answer this please.

And before all the FFS comments, and don't you know there's a pandemic on, and we've had no revenue for 18 months, I DO KNOW THAT!

Is FFP all about what is coming in money wise? and what is allowed to be spent?

How close are we to that line? Thinking about the Webster/Kelly/Brownhill money that came in.

If I'm having a bad month and want to buy something urgent, but it will make me overdrawn, I'll take it out my savings, then put it back when I get paid. I know I'm going to have to fork out whether that be now or down the line, so the money is coming out whatever.

We need a striker whether that be now or down the line. At the moment surely a striker will be cheaper, so why not buy one now? or will that bust our FFP?

Oh, and obviously grateful to SL for sanctioning the Atkinson deal, so maybe that took us to the FFP line?

http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/financial-fair-play-explained.php

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01501663/filing-history

Summary

We don’t have 20/21s accounts to know where we are financially, but me and @Mr Popodopolousare estimating a £30m overall loss for the season….of which we don’t know yet whether the club will be able to exclude any of that due to Covid.  About £3m will be excluded for things like Academy, etc.

So pretty serious.  Hence the sell to buy policy.

The good news is that the wage bill and amortisation costs will be reduced quite a bit for 21/22 season.  But we have to submit 20/21 first.

Please feel free to ask any more Qs. 
 

 

[Negan]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/financial-fair-play-explained.php

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01501663/filing-history

Summary

We don’t have 20/21s accounts to know where we are financially, but me and @Mr Popodopolousare estimating a £30m overall loss for the season….of which we don’t know yet whether the club will be able to exclude any of that due to Covid.  About £3m will be excluded for things like Academy, etc.

So pretty serious.  Hence the sell to buy policy.

The good news is that the wage bill and amortisation costs will be reduced quite a bit for 21/22 season.  But we have to submit 20/21 first.

Please feel free to ask any more Qs. 
 

 

Are we going to have to share bath water and shop at Lidl now? 

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Negan said:

Are we going to have to share bath water and shop at Lidl now? 

You see some positives then

[BigTone]

1 hour ago, Busterrimes said:

@Mr Popodopolous

@HMRC

[Bryans Left Peg]

15 minutes ago, Marco the red said:

@Davefevs @Mr Popodopolous what are the chances in your views that we are going to get smashed by FFP and could face transfer ban etc?

I'm also clueless when it comes to this stuff but generally always have faith in SL around FFP considering he made his fortune through a Financial Services company. Hopefully that's not misplaced!

[Davefevs]

48 minutes ago, Marco the red said:

@Davefevs @Mr Popodopolous what are the chances in your views that we are going to get smashed by FFP and could face transfer ban etc?

I think we are fine, but as FFP is done on a rolling 3 year basis (Covid years a bit more woolly - I bow to mr pops here), just because we are safe in the latest 3 year period, that 18/19 profit drops off at the end of this season, so we are trying to run the current 3 year period:

19/20 - £9.1m loss

20/21 - let’s say £25m (best case?)

thats £34.1m already.

20/21 - will probably be £15m loss (based on £25m last season less the £10m wages and amortisation saving) unless we sell, 

that’s £49.1m minus £9m exceptions (Academy)….so pretty much on the FFP threshold.  SL won’t let us take that risk….rightly so, even if other clubs are prepared to take that risk.

@Mr Popodopolousany other thoughts, you’re normally less bullish than me.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Marco the red said:

And what is the risk? Or are we seeing that now with Derby Reading and Blackburn ?

Yes.

Had we gone down last season, I dread to think how many years we’d have been set-back.  I hope Derby abd Reading get their just desserts.

[downendcity]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think we are fine, but as FFP is done on a rolling 3 year basis (Covid years a bit more woolly - I bow to mr pops here), just because we are safe in the latest 3 year period, that 18/19 profit drops off at the end of this season, so we are trying to run the current 3 year period:

19/20 - £9.1m loss

20/21 - let’s say £25m (best case?)

thats £34.1m already.

20/21 - will probably be £15m loss (based on £25m last season less the £10m wages and amortisation saving) unless we sell, 

that’s £49.1m minus £9m exceptions (Academy)….so pretty much on the FFP threshold.  SL won’t let us take that risk….rightly so, even if other clubs are prepared to take that risk.

@Mr Popodopolousany other thoughts, you’re normally less bullish than me.

As you say Dave, SL will ensure we don't break FFP limits. 

His accountancy and regulated financial services background means he has wide experience in business where breaking regulatory rules carries severe penalties.

Although it continually annoys many fans, who feel he's not using his wealth for the club's benefit (notwithstanding the £100m+ he's already invested-or, to use the correct accountancy term "lost"), I cannot see SL being prepared to compromise the club's financial integrity and risk punishment, because you can bet little old bristol city would not be treated with the same kid gloves as have the likes of WRDC. 

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, downendcity said:

As you say Dave, SL will ensure we don't break FFP limits. 

His accountancy and regulated financial services background means he has wide experience in business where breaking regulatory rules carries severe penalties.

Although it continually annoys many fans, who feel he's not using his wealth for the club's benefit (notwithstanding the £100m+ he's already invested-or, to use the correct accountancy term "lost"), I cannot see SL being prepared to compromise the club's financial integrity and risk punishment, because you can bet little old bristol city would not be treated with the same kid gloves as have the likes of WRDC. 

Yep.  We are not in a position where we are pushing for promotion where we could gamble, and then sell if need be.  In an inflationary market you can give it a whirl.  Wolves did it with Neves to some extent, paid £9m knowing if they didn’t get promoted they could sell him at a profit, FFP sorted.

If we had a low cost base, we could absorb a “big” transfer.  We haven’t though.

[Mr Popodopolous]

We won't breach under FFP, SL will steer us clear on that as Dave and Downend say.

I've read that our Allowable Costs might be more like £5m per year, but that could depend on consolidated vs Club etc...and remember it's 19/20 + 20/21 and the average of the 2...in theory we actually could make a big push this season, well relatively speaking- ie absorb a loss of £35-40m and not breach FFP...but the problem is it would be promotion or bust! In other words, up in this season and no later- or trouble, probably big trouble!

Don't think the Club, NP or SL would take or want the risk- will look into it in more detail later.

I do wonder if we couldn't add a couple of loans- a striker in particular, without jeopardising the future however.

[Davefevs]

59 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We won't breach under FFP, SL will steer us clear on that as Dave and Downend say.

I've read that our Allowable Costs might be more like £5m per year, but that could depend on consolidated vs Club etc...and remember it's 19/20 + 20/21 and the average of the 2...in theory we actually could make a big push this season, well relatively speaking- ie absorb a loss of £35-40m and not breach FFP...but the problem is it would be promotion or bust! In other words, up in this season and no later- or trouble, probably big trouble!

Don't think the Club, NP or SL would take or want the risk- will look into it in more detail later.

I do wonder if we couldn't add a couple of loans- a striker in particular, without jeopardising the future however.

Yes, and we are in no position to be gambling on promotion or bust this season.  If this was 17/18 going into 18/19 you might think we are close…one last push, shit or bust.  But in fact shit or bust was Jan 2018 when LJ got to keep players that he knew he’d have to sell in the summer if we didn’t go up.  We failed, hence the sales.

[slartibartfast]

2 hours ago, downendcity said:

I cannot see SL being prepared to compromise the club's financial integrity and risk punishment, because you can bet little old bristol city would not be treated with the same kid gloves as have the likes of WRDC. 

Yeah, let's **** 'em over, nobody cares about them, but it will send out a message.........to other small time clubs !

[Lanterne Rouge]

If and when we do sign someone and it`s a player that`s not up to the OTIB required standard can we change the thread title to FFS new striker?

[Pezo]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yes, and we are in no position to be gambling on promotion or bust this season.  If this was 17/18 going into 18/19 you might think we are close…one last push, shit or bust.  But in fact shit or bust was Jan 2018 when LJ got to keep players that he knew he’d have to sell in the summer if we didn’t go up.  We failed, hence the sales.

I think this is the point most people miss out on thinking that we should push the boat out when we have got to that point without realising we have already pushed the boat out to get to that point.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Yes, and we are in no position to be gambling on promotion or bust this season.  If this was 17/18 going into 18/19 you might think we are close…one last push, shit or bust.  But in fact shit or bust was Jan 2018 when LJ got to keep players that he knew he’d have to sell in the summer if we didn’t go up.  We failed, hence the sales.

Certainly agree- will confess a small part of me did wonder earlier in the Summer when quite a few clubs it would be apparent would either have significant financial issues or be hamstrung if a one time hit could be worth a go, especially if those we signed were younger- we could sell some if not, but in hindsight very glad we didn't!

Yep, the retention in Jan 2018 was in itself a statement of intent, agree- I wonder if we could have sold one less key player- thinking one of Webster or Kelly- in summer of 2019 and maybe sold them by Summer 2020 if we didn't go up...then again Covid would have knocked it down so perhaps best we did as we did!

In a pre Covid world, saw it as a bit of a 3 year plan...we sell big in Summer 2018 and reinvest some, sold quite big the following Summer too- then no Covid, starting point a £10m Profit- that's £15m in FFP terms probably after allowable costs and the 2017/18 disappears- talking normal market conditions as if Covid never happens and Summer 2020 the big push. Market for some sales would have been more buoyant too- all gone now of course but as it was, we would have had a 2 year FFP profit going into 2020/21 after allowances etc and that could have been a retain and push...albeit with consequences for failing by Summer of 2021.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, downendcity said:

As you say Dave, SL will ensure we don't break FFP limits. 

His accountancy and regulated financial services background means he has wide experience in business where breaking regulatory rules carries severe penalties.

Although it continually annoys many fans, who feel he's not using his wealth for the club's benefit (notwithstanding the £100m+ he's already invested-or, to use the correct accountancy term "lost"), I cannot see SL being prepared to compromise the club's financial integrity and risk punishment, because you can bet little old bristol city would not be treated with the same kid gloves as have the likes of WRDC. 

Fully agree with your post of course, but just to highlight the final bit...

...Many Derby fans still think the EFL are the guilty party- it's incredible, albeit maybe social media amplifies those who shout the loudest.

[PHILINFRANCE]

6 hours ago, Negan said:

Are we going to have to share bath water and shop at Lidl now? 

Every cloud and all that .