"I’m not a believer in collecting players"

[City oz]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

You buy yourself a bit of time to analyse what you really need too.

I’m just using League minutes, but so far his signings:

• James - 360 mins (100%)
• Atkinson - 360 mins (100%)
• King - 236 mins (66%)

plus:

• Weimann - 360 mins (100%)
• Simpson - 175 mins (49%)
• Baker - 193 mins (54%)

Total - 76% usage.

Here’s a list of every player signed permanently by Johnson from 16/17…I’ve not included 15/16 as it was only an emergency loan window by the time he signed.

Depends whether you factor in signing on fees, agent fees, wages, etc.

Ive not included loans, where there would’ve been loan fees, penalty clauses, wage contributions.

You can of course look at it simplistically (we’ve had this debate before) via net spend….and there were great deals, e.g. Webster, Brownhill and Bentley.  Engvall was not sold for £1.5m either.  Not sure Hegeler or Djuric were short term fixes.  Just because they didn’t work out doesn’t make that the signing strategy.

If you do want to look at net spend, then as it stands he’s £22m down on what he spent.  But of course he still has sellable assets in the players left, how much do you think we will get for:

Moore, O’Dowda, Baker, Bakinson, Weimann, Kalas, Massengo, Wells, Palmer, Dasilva, Bentley and Cundy?

Its a recruitment mixed bag, it’s not good, it’s not awful.  In financial terms, an inflationary market has saved his (LJ, MA and SL) arse with a few great deals.  Taylor, Hegeler, Lukic, Diedhiou, Walsh, Paterson, Hunt, Watkins, Adelakun and Nagy all arrived for fees and left for free.  That’s not adhering to a sustainable recruitment strategy.

I wish LJ had been reined in and solved problems on the training ground than by signing players.  SL and MA facilitated that….they should’ve been applying a hand-brake.

That is great info Dave and this should stop some of those some not some accurate posts on this subject.

[The Coach]

We paid 1.2mil for O’Dowda?! 
 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think the 16/17 period was the worst for recruitment. We signed absolutely loads.

There were a few really good ones like Brownhill but so many awful signings. Lucic, Ekstrand, Magnússon, Hegeler, Moore, Matthews, O'Neil, Tomlin, Djuric, Engvall.

None of those were a success imo. And some were an absolute disaster.

….and that was the season when LJ brought Macca into the first team fold (March 2017) to allow him to concentrate more on recruitment.  Perhaps recognising how bad the summer and winter window had been.

3 minutes ago, City oz said:

That is great info Dave and this should stop some of those some not some accurate posts on this subject.

And by all means people can dispute the numbers, but I’m happy with my source, and they also map back almost perfectly to the clubs official accounts. 

[City oz]

4 minutes ago, Redpool said:

We paid 1.2mil for O’Dowda?! 
 

All those that knock O Dowda be aware.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

15 million for Kodjia and 2.5 million for Magnuson was a profit 

Kodjia scored 10 goals under Cotts just say credit where credit is due LJ done some good 

Out of interest where’s the balance to your argument.  You call for others to admit the opposite viewpoint….where’s your concession?

[GrahamC]

3 minutes ago, Redpool said:

We paid 1.2mil for O’Dowda?! 
 

Do you know what?

Look at some of the other names on Fev’s list, we paid far more than that for Engvall, for instance.

O’Dowda has been a bit disappointing but he’s played 150 games for us & he’s by no means the worst signing we made.

Like Simpson he seems to have become a scapegoat, but Watkins, the sainted Walsh, Adelakun, Eisa, we got virtually nothing out of these players.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

But going back to my original point players used over 30 times are not losses they played a part in a season where we reached acceptable levels, how many clubs sign and sell at the same level and succeed 

Depends over how long, the reason for their signing, etc, etc.  Liam Walsh was signed to “compete immediately” for example.

[Fordy62]

3 minutes ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

15 million for Kodjia and 2.5 million for Magnuson was a profit 

Kodjia scored 10 goals under Cotts just say credit where credit is due LJ done some good 

He undoubtedly did some good. You’ll be hard pushed to find a supporter who wouldn’t have given away Bobbie Reid on a free when he was a midfielder. He was crap. And the signing of Webster was very good. But let’s not portray him as some sort of transfer genius because he really wasn’t. 

Turning a profit on players is about realising their maximum value, so we must consider too then the players he didn’t get anywhere near the true value of. He sold a top half premier league right back for 250k and Freeman would later sell for 10x what LJ gave him away for. 

[James54De]

1 hour ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

No your missing the point, Mo Elisa profit, Sammy Szmodics profit , Engval was sold for 1.5 m, Hegeler and Duric were short term fixes 

No he wasn’t 

[Davefevs]

Just now, GrahamC said:

Do you know what?

Look at some of the other names on Fev’s list, we paid far more than that for Engvall, for instance.

O’Dowda has been a bit disappointing but he’s played 150 games for us & he’s by no means the worst signing we made.

Like Simpson he seems to have become a scapegoat, but Watkins, the sainted Walsh, Adelakun, Eisa, we got virtually nothing out of these players.

Yep, O’Dowda isn’t crap (nor is Simpson)….the disappointment is he’s probably not progressed much (some might argue at all) in 5 years here.  Signed when he did, you’d have expected more upside.

[Leveller]

1 hour ago, headhunter said:

So said Nigel Pearson in yesterday's press briefing. How refreshing it was to hear that when you look at the clubs in the bag approach adopted by the Gruesome Twosome: Lee Johnson / Mark Ashton.

The list of players that most on OTIB would regard as no better than what we already had  is immense and I'm not going to construct it here but I have to question those who say Johnson was personally accepting of ALL who came through the door during his tenure when you look at how many of them he gave a run in the side to to show what they could do.

In Pearson I trust [even if we lose tomorrow and after 5 games have just 4 points!]

Wasn't "clubs in the bag" a Gary Johnsonism, rather than a Lee Johnsonism?

I sense Ashton treated players as trading commodities, rather than potential first team players. I mean did we buy Eisa to actually play, or because we saw some upside in his potential value? I suspect LJ had little to do with those sorts of signings.

[2015]

19 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think the 16/17 period was the worst for recruitment. We signed absolutely loads.

There were a few really good ones like Brownhill but so many awful signings. Lucic, Ekstrand, Magnússon, Hegeler, Moore, Matthews, O'Neil, Tomlin, Djuric, Engvall.

None of those were a success imo. And some were an absolute disaster.

Absolutely terrible really

[grifty]

20 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think the 16/17 period was the worst for recruitment. We signed absolutely loads.

There were a few really good ones like Brownhill but so many awful signings. Lucic, Ekstrand, Magnússon, Hegeler, Moore, Matthews, O'Neil, Tomlin, Djuric, Engvall.

None of those were a success imo. And some were an absolute disaster.

Magnússon wasn't a awful signing?

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

That LJ did not just collect players and did not ruin the club as some suggest in there arguments, clubs in dire straits do not sign centre half’s for £2m 

I hate coming across as a LJ cheerleader but I can’t stand BS

He even said himself about “clubs in the bag”.  With loan players he recruited 61 players in 4 seasons….that’s a collection in my eyes.  He once told a fan about Marley Watkins (paraphrased) “I signed him because I like him as a bloke, he’s not very good, but he runs about a lot”.  I wish I could remember the exact quote, but imagine saying that to a fan?

I really don’t think you do hate coming across as a LJ cheerleader.

[The Coach]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, O’Dowda isn’t crap (nor is Simpson)….the disappointment is he’s probably not progressed much (some might argue at all) in 5 years here.  Signed when he did, you’d have expected more upside.

Got to disagree Dave. O’Dowda is shite. We should have let him go when he first wanted to leave. Speaks volume at that time no other championship club wanted him nor willing to meet his wage demands. 

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Leveller said:

Wasn't "clubs in the bag" a Gary Johnsonism, rather than a Lee Johnsonism?

I sense Ashton treated players as trading commodities, rather than potential first team players. I mean did we buy Eisa to actually play, or because we saw some upside in his potential value? I suspect LJ had little to do with those sorts of signings.

LJ used it too.

[Nogbad the Bad]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Probably so as not to rock the boat. He had a very favourable situation here - plenty of backing, time and a very forgiving owner. 

Credit to him for taking the Sunderland challenge, but he had it very good here. Would be foolish to cause a public stir needlessly.

I certainly agree with all your unbolded comments, and we all like to indulge in conjecture on here now and again.

However, LJ stated his position as having the final say on incoming transfers, and reiterated this numerous times, so  little room for conjecture here afaic. and very easy just to accept he was being candid on the matter.

 

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, O’Dowda isn’t crap (nor is Simpson)….the disappointment is he’s probably not progressed much (some might argue at all) in 5 years here.  Signed when he did, you’d have expected more upside.

Agree, but 150 games for us at Championship level for £1.2m looks decent when compared to the 4 that I named.

 

[Nogbad the Bad]

1 hour ago, Rob k said:

I think LJ has to get credit for coaching these players, we weren’t getting regular fees like we did for our players before he came and haven’t since. Cotta can’t take any credit for Reid either in my opinion 
 

True, the main credit for Reid's unlikely transformation goes to the backroom analysts who recommended to LJ that Bobby should be tried up front when LJ had seemingly more or less given up on him making it as a Championship midfield player.

Credit to LJ for taking that advice on board and trying it out though - he didn't have to, even if other striker options were not in great supply that close season. 

 

[Phileas Fogg]

7 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

True, the main credit for Reid's unlikely transformation goes to the backroom analysts who recommended to LJ that Bobby should be tried up front when LJ had seemingly more or less given up on him making it as a Championship midfield player.

Credit to LJ for taking that advice on board and trying it out though - he didn't have to, even if other striker options were not in great supply that close season. 

 

I find it a bit disingenuous when people try to undermine that particular decision through qualifying it with ‘but it’s ultimately thanks to the analysts’.

The buck stops with the manager and he’s the sum of the parts of his entire team. He lives or dies by those decisions in that role.

[The Fat Controller]

I don't think we will ever know, transfer wise, which players Lee Johnson is responsible for and which players Mark Ashton is responsible for. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

4 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I find it a bit disingenuous when people try to undermine that particular decision through qualifying it with ‘but it’s ultimately thanks to the analysts’.

The buck stops with the manager and he’s the sum of the parts of his entire team. He lives or dies by those decisions in that role.

LJ credited the analysts himself.

[Phileas Fogg]

Just now, Nogbad the Bad said:

LJ credited the analysts himself.

Yeah, but he still ultimately chose to use their recommendation. The buck stops with the manager and any manager’s decision making is influenced by his collective staff.

I think people are a bit selective on what things they choose to credit LJ with depending on if they liked him or not. 

[Sturny]

Just now, sinenomine said:

I don't think we will ever know, transfer wise, which players Lee Johnson is responsible for and which players Mark Ashton is responsible for. 

I know Webster was specifically asked for by LJ if they were to sell Flint. I think MA said that himself.

[Nogbad the Bad]

8 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Yeah, but he still ultimately chose to use their recommendation. The buck stops with the manager and any manager’s decision making is influenced by his collective staff.

I think people are a bit selective on what things they choose to credit LJ with depending on if they liked him or not. 

Indeed, I credited him with that above.

 

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, lukebcfc1989 said:

Well that’s fair as I am coming across this way, but there is one reason we are not able to buy at what fans would consider to be an “acceptable” level this summer and it’s not Lee Johnson, it’s Coronavirus 

Well that’s fair as I am coming across this way, but there is one reason we are not able to buy at what fans would consider to be an “acceptable” level this summer and it’s not Lee Johnson, it’s Coronavirus 

Well that’s fair as I am coming across this way, but there is one reason we are not able to buy at what fans would consider to be an “acceptable” level this summer and it’s not Lee Johnson, it’s Coronavirus 

I think you are wrong….all Covid has done is bring forward the reality of escalating costs of a squad / football operation that isn’t matched by the value and performance on the pitch.

I’ve been monitoring the trend from about 18-24 months before Covid, so it’s now 3-4 years I’ve been worrying.  It’s why I have my spreadsheets, so I can back up my thoughts / concerns with evidence.

My interest in this was piqued from reading a couple of books and then in City’s case with the regular talk of a sustainable football business and the questioning from fans that we’d never get promoted with that strategy.  So I started investigating, firstly our own finances, then I did the same for every other Championship club (yes, I’m a bit of a saddo) and started to learn more about FFP and football finances in general.  The likes of Mr Pops and HXJ are incredibly knowledgeable in some areas, they leave me for dead.  But on the stuff around basic P&L, amortisation etc, what I learned I then turned into my analysis…..and my summary in simple terms was “eventually this is gonna hit us big time”.  Doom mongering?  Not really, potential reality.

There comes a point (in the strategy we were employing) when you run a big risk that the saleable value of your players is no longer sufficient to offset the spiralling costs, whilst maintaining squad strength.  We have hit that point, we probably hit it last summer.  We are now in a phase of trying to lower costs whilst maintaining squad strength….which is terribly difficult.  LJ deserves quite a bit of credit for keeping results (not necessarily performances though) for a while, but when results started to match performances, the slide going on in the background became evident to all.

Much as I dislike mentioning our friends in the north, my review and analysis made me think of them.  For years they survived (pretty well) selling a striker every year to fund their football club (Stewart, Ellington, G.Taylor, Hayles, Lambert, etc - who did I miss?)….but remember saying to my dad - what happens when they don’t have anyone to sell?  Answer: you end up in the National League.  Fair play to them for bouncing back, getting back to Lg1, then god knows what went wrong.

So back to para one above I do blame LJ….but as a collective with MA and SL.  I’m never gonna blame him as an individual, but Coronavirus didn’t spend £62.6m on a team that finished 12th in 19/20 did it.

You are seriously deluded (sorry if that appears rude) if you think Covid is the reason we can’t spend money.  It’s a factor why we can’t spend money now, but all it’s probably done is hit us 12-18 months earlier.

As you’ve guessed I quite like discussing this subject matter.

[Davefevs]

27 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think that Kelly bloke was blamed for the poor recruitment of 16/17. 

But it never really got to a high enough standard since. What makes the signings worse than they might have been is not being able to build a cohesive unit that gets the best out of those players.

Do you mean Des Taylor?

[Phileas Fogg]

4 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Indeed, I credited him with that above.

 

With a huge ‘but’ though ! 

[Nogbad the Bad]

6 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

With a huge ‘but’ though ! 

I didn't mention Tomlin!

My 'but' wasn't huge, just something relevant at the time that also needed to be factored in - imo. of course.

[Merrick's Marvels]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a list of every player signed permanently by Johnson from 16/17…I’ve not included 15/16 as it was only an emergency loan window by the time he signed.

How on earth have you forgotten the amazing Tin Plavotic, Mr Fevs?

What a roaring success he was.

Who???? I hear you cry.

Exactly.