Port Said Red Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 I suppose I ought to be putting this in the FFP thread , but its specifically about City. So @Mr Popodopolous, with all the work we seem to be doing on reducing the wage bills, and with amortisation of players values, what do you think our position will be next summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 Haha thanks, there are a few on here tbh. I've actually counterintuitively argued that this could be a season on which we threw the dice as it's the year in which our £10m Profit plus FFP Allowances is the starting point post rejig. We are one of the better placed due to this. The caveat there however, is that it would have had to be a one time hit, ie promotion or bust. Middlesbrough move from Profit to large 2019/20 loss next season, unsure how their 2020/21 would look, not really done guesstimates. Some of the departures will have yielded good savings this year, Assombalonga and Fletcher to name two. Yeah though we could have but big caveat would have been promotion this season and this season only. That said we'll never know but the League feels quite open this year, save for the top 2 which look fairly likely to be the current top 2- and we never win playoffs... All Covid losses excluded of course and halving last season and 2019/20 will help. As for now, we're doing some heavy lifting as next Summer the new starting point will be the combined average which is a loss @Davefevs has estimated before that £5m in Wages and the same ie £5m in Amortisation. That was before a) The Moore loan and b) The departure of Nagy. Wage savings on each a seasons worth, amortisation on Nagy that hit will be offset by the equal saving in amortisation IMO. If players do well this season, perhaps some we assume were duds last year will regain value, a lot are still quite young after all. DaSilva, Williams, Bakinson are three outside the obvious- ie Bentley Massengo, Semenyo and quite possibly Scott. The 3 I listed, if fit and in form, age is very much on their side. I do quite like the age profile of the squad. Atkinson easily could, age very much on his side and he's only just joined. Kalas has had a very strong Euros and is arguably in peak years for a CB, could he regain some market value in due course? As for the specifics, I believe expenditure in 2023/24 will be the next time we can spend significantly, barring decent sized sales of course. As per Dave, £5m and £5m plus saving wages of Nagy and Moore. £11-12m in improvement maybe? The operating losses were about £30-35m in a season though?? Though that includes I make it a £5m a season in Allowances. Any Academy sales are pure profit, we've sold a couple. Eliasson sold too, not enough but Covid- Fee - final year of deal but cost of Amortisation also eliminated on disposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 Here are my estimates of 20/21 finances together with really, really ball-park projections for this season, etc and impact on FFP. Will need adjusting as we learn more. But a useful starting point. Remember SL has said last seasons accounts will be “horrific” when published. The difficult thing to comprehend is how we can go from being “ok” to “in the sh1t” in one season….and it’s because the £11.9m profit in 18/19 drops off . That Lloyd Kelly deal done in May 2019 might’ve been better delaying until June and smoothing out 18/19 and 19/20??? Thoughts Mr Pops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
054123 Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 I think this question is often raised, but given the blanket effect of Covid, how will the league approach FFP if all clubs are ‘in the s&!$’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 51 minutes ago, 054123 said: I think this question is often raised, but given the blanket effect of Covid, how will the league approach FFP if all clubs are ‘in the s&!$’? The simple answer is - not all clubs are in the sh1t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Davefevs said: Here are my estimates of 20/21 finances together with really, really ball-park projections for this season, etc and impact on FFP. Will need adjusting as we learn more. But a useful starting point. Remember SL has said last seasons accounts will be “horrific” when published. The difficult thing to comprehend is how we can go from being “ok” to “in the sh1t” in one season….and it’s because the £11.9m profit in 18/19 drops off . That Lloyd Kelly deal done in May 2019 might’ve been better delaying until June and smoothing out 18/19 and 19/20??? Thoughts Mr Pops? Would agree Dave, would have spread the Profit or gains across a longer period. Kelly a year on could come in very handy right now. 1 hour ago, 054123 said: I think this question is often raised, but given the blanket effect of Covid, how will the league approach FFP if all clubs are ‘in the s&!$’? There are two bits, maybe more: 1) 2019/20 and 2020/21 losses added and halved into one period. I expect Reading have failed this, it's at least possible that Derby have, Stoke will be interesting to analyse. I was wondering about Cardiff but that seems to have gone a bit quiet, they seem to be carrying less costs atm. I've sometimes wondered if they won't pursue deductions given the ongoing Reading nonsense, but instead Embargoes. Although if it's an Embargo their signings... 2) All Covid losses and costs excluded from calcs though I hope EFL will push back where needed. I believe Tickets, refunded Season tickets, any TV Rebate and lost Commercial revenue, as well as Costs of Covid Testing, etc are all uncontroversially attributable to Covid. 26 minutes ago, Davefevs said: The simple answer is - not all clubs are in the sh1t. Agreed. Although if we are in the sh1t then others must certainly be worse placed, although others are certainly better as you say. Although if we get deals like the ridiculous and frankly unbelievable Rahman and Drinkwater double loan, well.. Literally dont think Chelsea would do it for any other UK clubs. Think our deals with them were decent but competitive and the cases of Tammy and the triple deal in 2018 and 2019, they were the norm. Rahman and Drinkwater aren't kids and on a combined £170k a week- Chelsea covering at least 90%, to fit the wage cap. No loan fee permitted as per Reading conditions under Embargo. Unsure Chelsea do it for anyone else in World football actually tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Would agree Dave, would have spread the Profit or gains across a longer period. Kelly a year on could come in very handy right now. Twofold maybe more: 1) 2019/20 and 2020/21 losses added and halved into one period. I expect Reading have failed this, it's at least possible that Derby have, Stoke will be interesting to analyse. 2) All Covid losses and costs excluded from calcs though I hope EFL will push back where needed. I believe Tickets, refunded Season tickets, any TV Rebate and lost Commercial revenue, as well as Costs of Covid Testing, etc are all uncontroversially attributable to Covid. Agreed. Although if we are in the sh1t then others must certainly be worse placed, although others are certainly better as you say. Although if we get deals like the ridiculous and frankly unbelievable Rahman and Drinkwater double loan, well.. Literally dont think Chelsea would do it for any other UK clubs. Think our deals with them were decent but competitive and the cases of Tammy and the triple deal in 2018 and 2019, they were the norm. Rahman and Drinkwater aren't kids and on a combined £170k a week- Chelsea covering at least 90%, to fit the wage cap. Like the 3 tiers of 8 in the table, think there are 3 tiers of 8 in FFP stakes. Top 8 - the parachute clubs Middle 8 - the well run or low budget teams Bottom 8 - the basket cases, overstretched gamblers. I think we are in middle 8 but trending towards bottom 8….until the recent changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 So to summarise in @BigTone style...... Next summer will still be toughtrading, unless we sell someone in Jan or summer 22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeh Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 This is why we aren't spending money, or modest amounts And why it's so frustrating when people ignore this to have ago at the owner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Would agree Dave, would have spread the Profit or gains across a longer period. Kelly a year on could come in very handy right now. There are two bits, maybe more: 1) 2019/20 and 2020/21 losses added and halved into one period. I expect Reading have failed this, it's at least possible that Derby have, Stoke will be interesting to analyse. I was wondering about Cardiff but that seems to have gone a bit quiet, they seem to be carrying less costs atm. I've sometimes wondered if they won't pursue deductions given the ongoing Reading nonsense, but instead Embargoes. Although if it's an Embargo their signings... 2) All Covid losses and costs excluded from calcs though I hope EFL will push back where needed. I believe Tickets, refunded Season tickets, any TV Rebate and lost Commercial revenue, as well as Costs of Covid Testing, etc are all uncontroversially attributable to Covid. Agreed. Although if we are in the sh1t then others must certainly be worse placed, although others are certainly better as you say. Although if we get deals like the ridiculous and frankly unbelievable Rahman and Drinkwater double loan, well.. Literally dont think Chelsea would do it for any other UK clubs. Think our deals with them were decent but competitive and the cases of Tammy and the triple deal in 2018 and 2019, they were the norm. Rahman and Drinkwater aren't kids and on a combined £170k a week- Chelsea covering at least 90%, to fit the wage cap. No loan fee permitted as per Reading conditions under Embargo. Unsure Chelsea do it for anyone else in World football actually tbh. So why did they do it for Reading............and no one else? I understand they are putting the 2 of them in the shop window, but why have they done it for Reading, and........."No one else in world football?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 3 hours ago, maxjak said: So why did they do it for Reading............and no one else? I understand they are putting the 2 of them in the shop window, but why have they done it for Reading, and........."No one else in world football?" If they have tie ups some smaller clubs abroad then maybe them. In Drinkwater's case he's got no real future at Chelsea, out of contract next Summer and had loans in 2019/20 and 2020/21, fairly undistinguished ones at that. To PL clubs, yet I'm sure Chelsea demanded a decent sized contribution? Perhaps I'm wrong but it feels likely. Or a Loan Fee? Rahman is one of Chelsea's loan army, possibly this is more about retaining value. Either way though, the massive subsidies necessary here are unusual, who knows maybe nobody else wanted them, but it's a real mystery as to why Reading seem to have got these players on these terms. I should also add, a couple of years ago they paid a good chunk of the wages reportedly for Matt Miazga on loan to yes you've guessed... Everton helped Reading out with the wages reportedly on Joao Virginia in 2019/20. Although these are younger, possibly fringe players but who knew that PL clubs were so generous?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bard Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 13 hours ago, Davefevs said: Like the 3 tiers of 8 in the table, think there are 3 tiers of 8 in FFP stakes. Top 8 - the parachute clubs Middle 8 - the well run or low budget teams Bottom 8 - the basket cases, overstretched gamblers. I think we are in middle 8 but trending towards bottom 8….until the recent changes. It's probably more of a 6 -10 -8 split. The parachute clubs are becoming fewer as they are increasingly likely to bounce back up. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth plus Fulham, Sheff Utd and West Brom. The soundly run ones : City, Swansea, Barnsley, Millwall, Luton, Coventry, Preston, Peterborough, Blackpool, Middlesboro Basket cases: Reading, Stoke, Derby, QPR, Hull, Forest, Blackburn, Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Bard said: It's probably more of a 6 -10 -8 split. The parachute clubs are becoming fewer as they are increasingly likely to bounce back up. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth plus Fulham, Sheff Utd and West Brom. yep, don’t disagree with that at all. The soundly run ones : City, Swansea, Barnsley, Millwall, Luton, Coventry, Preston, Peterborough, Blackpool, Middlesboro Basket cases: Reading, Stoke, Derby, QPR, Hull, Forest, Blackburn, Birmingham think QPR and Brum are trying to operate better. Brum sold Bellingham and Adams and paid no fees (or very little). QPR using the Eze money, but probably cutting it fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bard Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Yeah. Proabably recovering basket cases who've been going to the meetings, have a sponsor and are working their way through the 12 steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 I don't know if Blackburn are a full on basket case, more walking the line- Armstrong sold, and more like frees and loans in recent times- could be EFL intervention too of course, ie a Soft Business Plan. Stoke had potential to be one but they might be slowly moving towards a better path. They have a lot of players out of contract next summer e.g. On that note, on a footballing note I mean- I'm surprised that they haven't looked to renew Nick Powell as a high priority even if only to retain a bit of value when selling him on. Yes there was the £88m loss thing but £8m of that was legit Covid costs, £30m was a rather more controversial bit let's say and £12-13m was an Impairment albeit one that would 100% count towards FFP. Possible there was some Revenue deferred between 2019/20 and 2020/21 ie final instalments of 2019/20 Parachutes...a few clubs have similar although it could have been bundled with Covid costs and will compute out once 2020/21 Results out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Rob Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Doesn't seem worth a new thread, and it's somewhat financial. https://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/football/sheffield-wednesday/sheffield-wednesday-owls-season-tickets-refunded-after-uncontested-court-claims-3366774 Feel free to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said: Doesn't seem worth a new thread, and it's somewhat financial. https://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/football/sheffield-wednesday/sheffield-wednesday-owls-season-tickets-refunded-after-uncontested-court-claims-3366774 Feel free to move. One fan describes the club as morally bankrupt, which is true and a pretty good description of the game as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 11 hours ago, chinapig said: One fan describes the club as morally bankrupt, which is true and a pretty good description of the game as a whole. Agree China, strikes me the whole thread is very worrying all through it. But should this topic not be for over paid accountants,who pay no tax. Has money taken over our bueatiful game and club. So all that really matters and comes first is money not the fans? Has the game sold out to the **** Murdoch in just being happy with the high profile money making obscenity that Murdoch has created. Have we learnt nothing from Covid that life comes before money and football is nothing without the fans. We are not just a money making resource. Sorry for whinge but this stuff totally ***** me off COYR and England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said: Agree China, strikes me the whole thread is very worrying all through it. But should this topic not be for over paid accountants,who pay no tax. Has money taken over our bueatiful game and club. So all that really matters and comes first is money not the fans? Has the game sold out to the **** Murdoch in just being happy with the high profile money making obscenity that Murdoch has created. Have we learnt nothing from Covid that life comes before money and football is nothing without the fans. We are not just a money making resource. Sorry for whinge but this stuff totally ***** me off COYR and England It's always been about money, the only difference is scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oh Louie louie Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 Barcelona, and real madrid are skint. That says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, Port Said Red said: It's always been about money, the only difference is scale. Again I agree, But in 2021 the dominent civilised species on this planet and money comes first. we are a very sad misguided race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Rob Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 10 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said: Barcelona, and real madrid are skint. That says it all. As Walt Disney* once said, you owe a bank $100 that's your problem, you owe them $100,000,000 then that's their problem. *Might not have been Disney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 14 hours ago, Bristol Rob said: As Walt Disney* once said, you owe a bank $100 that's your problem, you owe them $100,000,000 then that's their problem. *Might not have been Disney. John Paul Getty I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted September 4, 2021 Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 21 hours ago, Bristol Rob said: As Walt Disney* once said, you owe a bank $100 that's your problem, you owe them $100,000,000 then that's their problem. *Might not have been Disney. I just need to borrow another $99,999,900 then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc01 Posted September 4, 2021 Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 21 hours ago, Bristol Rob said: As Walt Disney* once said, you owe a bank $100 that's your problem, you owe them $100,000,000 then that's their problem. *Might not have been Disney. Trump lives his life in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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