Unbelievable, Jeff!

[bpexile]

3 hours ago, The Horse With No Name said:

Not sure thats true. The number of games recently where the woodwork and poor finishing has saved us is remarkable. QPR, Fulham, Luton spring to mind. Our defending for the most part , Bentley aside, has been very poor.

I'm not looking for an argument but I've always believed that you create your own luck & the constant pressure our defence has been putting on the opposition could possible be causing mistakes/poor finishing.

Just my way of looking at it 

[ExiledAjax]

In terms of measureable product we've improved as an attacking force. We're taking more shots, that are more threatening, than we managed over the whole of last season (Holden and Pearson). The numbers don't suggest that we've transformed into a relentless attacking machine - but I can't see anyone saying they think we've done that either. It's an improvement, and that is good.

The defensive side of the game hasn't improved as much. As @Davefevs says, the past 3 games have skewed that a little as in those 3 games we've allowed 66 out of the total 126 shots that we've faced so far. So about 50% of the shots against have come in just 33% of our games. Still, if we keep allowing an average of 14 shots against each game, 5 of which force Bentley into action...well we're going to have to make sure we keep scoring ourselves.

@Davefevs' data also shows that we tend to be on the wrong side of the divisional average for most metrics. We take fewer shots than the average side, allow more than the average side etc.

That's broadly why, despite a decent start to the season, I still think that the preseason predictions of lower midtable are fair and remain reasonable. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by ExiledAjax

[BigTone]

10 hours ago, Norn Iron said:

Fantastic as always Dave! But for those that like it in Janet and John language, please summarise!

Condensed Version

We've scored more than normal

[Bar BS3]

11 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Condensed Version

We've scored more than normal

We've scored less goals than any other team in the top 11.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Bar BS3

[Robbored]

The only statistics that really show anything that means something to the majority of us fans are the ones that show City 8th in the Championship and 5 games unbeaten.

 

[grifty]

The last few games especially, we've been able to put some passing moves together and actually look like we could pass round a team into an attacking move. Not all game like Fulham can, but enough to have a threat. Makes our counter attacks twice as dangerous if the passes actually go to our team.

[Steve Watts]

10 hours ago, firstdivision said:

Interesting choice of example. Do you mean the LJ who presided over a home win against Manchester United? As opposed to a manager who’s presided over no home wins in his time at the club. Just saying like…

Russell Osman presided over an away win against Liverpool - should we reappoint him....? As much as I liked LJ (but agreed it was past time for him to go), one swallow does not make a summer.

 

[MarcusX]

10 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I’ve really noticed how much less we pass the ball backwards. Incredible compared to LJ/DH. 

But we're giving the ball away more

So you have to weigh up which is better? I don't understand why ball retention is so demonised by some - although I accept there's a fine line between ball retention and the frustration of not taking risks and making key passes (e.g. England in the Euros at times)

[Steve Watts]

57 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

We've scored less goals than any other team in the top 11.

But got more points than any other team in the bottom 15. So swings and roundabouts eh?

[Laner]

12 hours ago, Norn Iron said:

9 games have been played this season and we've got a + goal difference!

Which begs the question, what have you noticed that is different to previous seasons?

 

 

We've had zero 'box entries'!

[OneTeamInBristol]

24 minutes ago, Steve Watts said:

Russell Osman presided over an away win against Liverpool - should we reappoint him....? As much as I liked LJ (but agreed it was past time for him to go), one swallow does not make a summer.

 

Depends who you're asking...

[1960maaan]

7 hours ago, bpexile said:

I'm not looking for an argument but I've always believed that you create your own luck & the constant pressure our defence has been putting on the opposition could possible be causing mistakes/poor finishing.

Just my way of looking at it 

I've always thought, you only create 1 or 2 chances a game that puts massive pressure on whoever the chance falls to. If you're defending constantly chances are you don't get a clean sheet, and so pressure to score ramps up. 
I think the midfield has been better, helped the defence more efficiently than last year, though we are still allowing the opposition too many chances. What we have improved on is the number of good chances, at least it seems that way to me.

1 hour ago, Bar BS3 said:

We've scored less goals than any other team in the top 11.

What Tone said was ..

1 hour ago, BigTone said:

Condensed Version

We've scored more than normal

Not scored more than normal teams, subtle but important difference I feel .

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Robbored said:

The only statistics that really show anything that means something to the majority of us fans are the ones that show City 8th in the Championship and 5 games unbeaten.

Sure, come May the division is ranked on points, GD, etc. However, that doesn't stop some of us (I'd not claim to speak for any number of fans, let alone the majority) from trying to look beneath the current league table in an attempt to discern why we are 8th, and whether or not it is at all likely that we can continue or replicate our current unbeaten run. 

There isn't any harm in doing that. Don't worry, we aren't saying nasty things about St. Nigel.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

In terms of measureable product we've improved as an attacking force. We're taking more shots, that are more threatening, than we managed over the whole of last season (Holden and Pearson). The numbers don't suggest that we've transformed into a relentless attacking machine - but I can't see anyone saying they think we've done that either. It's an improvement, and that is good.

The defensive side of the game hasn't improved as much. As @Davefevs says, the past 3 games have skewed that a little as in those 3 games we've allowed 66 out of the total 126 shots that we've faced so far. So about 50% of the shots against have come in just 33% of our games. Still, if we keep allowing an average of 14 shots against each game, 5 of which force Bentley into action...well we're going to have to make sure we keep scoring ourselves.

@Davefevs' data also shows that we tend to be on the wrong side of the divisional average for most metrics. We take fewer shots than the average side, allow more than the average side etc.

That's broadly why, despite a decent start to the season, I still think that the preseason predictions of lower midtable are fair and remain reasonable. 

That’s a pretty good summary, reasons to not get ahead of ourselves just because we are 8th.  The last 3 games have knocked quite a few of the stats back, yet we’ve picked up 5 points from 3 games.  Up until the last 2 we were trending mid-table for lots of them.  Think we will see a lot of games 1-0, 1-1, 0-1.

Two less stellar opponents coming up.

Might get to see those recent shots conceded numbers go back down.  If not, regardless of result, I’d have some concerns.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That’s a pretty good summary, reasons to not get ahead of ourselves just because we are 8th.  The last 3 games have knocked quite a few of the stats back, yet we’ve picked up 5 points from 3 games.  Up until the last 2 we were trending mid-table for lots of them.  Think we will see a lot of games 1-0, 1-1, 0-1.

Two less stellar opponents coming up.

Might get to see those recent shots conceded numbers go back down.  If not, regardless of result, I’d have some concerns.

Yeh, and I think prior to those two games we'd have probably predicted a hefty number of incoming shots from QPR and Fulham. It's not unreasonable at all that we conceded nigh on 40 shots over those two games. 

Tomorrow is game number 10, roughly 1/4 through the season and with a wide range of opponents played. Let's see where we are then.

With a gun to my head I probably go for a draw with Millwall. That gets us 14 after ten. Solid mid table form.

[Robbored]

13 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Sure, come May the division is ranked on points, GD, etc. However, that doesn't stop some of us (I'd not claim to speak for any number of fans, let alone the majority) from trying to look beneath the current league table in an attempt to discern why we are 8th, and whether or not it is at all likely that we can continue or replicate our current unbeaten run. 

There isn't any harm in doing that. Don't worry, we aren't saying nasty things about St. Nigel.

Oh, I get it completely and I enjoy reading the various statistics posted on here. I find them interesting and secretly admire those posters that compile them. My point is however that not every fan is interested in the reason why we’re 8th and 5 games undefeated - just that we are.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Robbored

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Robbored said:

Oh, I get it completely and I enjoy reading the various statistics posted on here. I find them interesting and secretly admire those posters that compile them My point is however that not every fan is interested in the reason why we’re 8th and 5 games undefeated.

Oh be still my beating heart.

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh, and I think prior to those two games we'd have probably predicted a hefty number of incoming shots from QPR and Fulham. It's not unreasonable at all that we conceded nigh on 40 shots over those two games. 

Tomorrow is game number 10, roughly 1/4 through the season and with a wide range of opponents played. Let's see where we are then.

With a gun to my head I probably go for a draw with Millwall. That gets us 14 after ten. Solid mid table form.

Yep, you may have noticed I added some additional overlays (box plot / whiskers) to my charts since you looked at them a couple of weeks ago….to show the quartile ranges.

For the rest of you, the middle line, each coloured blob represents shots conceded in each match.  The colour the opposition kit colour.  Some blobs sit on top of each other.  The two on the right are Luton (orange) and Fulham (grey - they don’t do white).  QPR (light blue) is hidden by Fulham.  But you can see how those 3 games are out of kilter with a much more solid defensive effort in the other 6 games.  But of course I can’t pick and choose the games to prove things….but those 6 games were good signs.  Hoping we get back to those numbers.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, you may have noticed I added some additional overlays (box plot / whiskers) to my charts since you looked at them a couple of weeks ago….to show the quartile ranges.

For the rest of you, the middle line, each coloured blob represents shots conceded in each match.  The colour the opposition kit colour.  Some blobs sit on top of each other.  The two on the right are Luton (orange) and Fulham (grey - they don’t do white).  QPR (light blue) is hidden by Fulham.  But you can see how those 3 games are out of kilter with a much more solid defensive effort in the other 6 games.  But of course I can’t pick and choose the games to prove things….but those 6 games were good signs.  Hoping we get back to those numbers.

Yep. Your displays are looking much better than those you showed me a couple of weeks ago. Good work mate.

[Davefevs]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Yep. Your displays are looking much better than those you showed me a couple of weeks ago. Good work mate.

Only because I had good feedback / ideas

[ExiledAjax]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Only because I had good feedback / ideas

17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Oh be still my beating heart.

[mozo]

My main criticism around our play this season would be our overuse of mid to long balls down the wing which aren't much more sophisticated than playing into touch. Also in the final third we often look short of ideas which is odd because we've got so much experience up top. And the long throws at times!

Otherwise I'm pleased with how Pearson has got this squad playing and I'm fairly confident that he could get a stronger, more balanced version of this squad playing a more complete style. 

[downendcity]

1 hour ago, MarcusX said:

But we're giving the ball away more

So you have to weigh up which is better? I don't understand why ball retention is so demonised by some - although I accept there's a fine line between ball retention and the frustration of not taking risks and making key passes (e.g. England in the Euros at times)

Passing/ball retention should be a means to an end, i.e. finding an opening in the opposition defence to develop an attack.

Too often in the more recent past I think ball retention tended to become an end in itself. We seemed to be set up to give nothing away and to try and not to lose ( I know, every team sets up not to lose, but I think you will know what I mean) and lacked almost any attacking intent. Players were almost scared to try anything adventurous, so that all too often our ball retention consisted of passing back and across in our defensive third of the pitch.

It was because of this that we were the most shot shy team in the EFL.

There is little doubt that NP wants us to play on the front foot much more. It has not always come off this season, partly because we have new players bedding in          ( James, King, Atkinson, Simpson), existing players getting used to playing with new teammates and NP trying to install a new system and attitude within the squad.

From the games I’ve seen we seem to be  looking to pass the ball much more in the opposition half of the pitch, but because we are doing so with more attacking intention our retention tends to be shorter and when it breaks down we are more open so will give the opposition chances to break quickly. Conversely, there is little doubt that we are creating more chances ( although comparing to last season is from a very low base).

O

[downendcity]

30 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, you may have noticed I added some additional overlays (box plot / whiskers) to my charts since you looked at them a couple of weeks ago….to show the quartile ranges.

For the rest of you, the middle line, each coloured blob represents shots conceded in each match.  The colour the opposition kit colour.  Some blobs sit on top of each other.  The two on the right are Luton (orange) and Fulham (grey - they don’t do white).  QPR (light blue) is hidden by Fulham.  But you can see how those 3 games are out of kilter with a much more solid defensive effort in the other 6 games.  But of course I can’t pick and choose the games to prove things….but those 6 games were good signs.  Hoping we get back to those numbers.

I suspect that Fulham and QPR will be among the teams with the most shots against most opposition teams  in the championship over the season

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, downendcity said:

I suspect that Fulham and QPR will be among the teams with the most shots against most opposition teams  in the championship over the season

Fulham 1st, QPR 4th.

3 minutes ago, downendcity said:

It was because of this that we were the most shot shy team in the EFL.

Interesting take on this particular point. My theory for the lack of long range shots under LJ and DH was that it was an instruction not to do so. We were so, so far below the divisional average that I really don't think it was just the players. Coupling that with LJs talk about box entries and the like, I deduced it was a tactical instruction to cross/pass it into the box when in positions outside the box that might normally allow for a shot.

It's interesting though that whilst we are up slightly in this department this term, we are still way below the division's average, and the increase is marginal at best. Perhaps that supports your theory that it's the players themselves who don't fancy it from range? 

Ultimately, not many goals are scored from range, although I do think it is good to test Championship keepers, and long shots are a decent source of corners. It's not my top priority on the list of things to improve, but at the same time I don't think it would hurt to have a few more goes from range.

[Steve Watts]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

I've always thought, you only create 1 or 2 chances a game that puts massive pressure on whoever the chance falls to. If you're defending constantly chances are you don't get a clean sheet, and so pressure to score ramps up. 
I think the midfield has been better, helped the defence more efficiently than last year, though we are still allowing the opposition too many chances. What we have improved on is the number of good chances, at least it seems that way to me.

What Tone said was ..

Not scored more than normal teams, subtle but important difference I feel .

Matty James has been one of the best signings we have made in donkeys years.

[Davefevs]

35 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think we pass it back to our goalie less because we rarely play it out the back. In 17/18 we often tried to play it out and had to then go back to Fielding.

There is quite a few differences in how we play this season compared to previous.

29 minutes ago, mozo said:

My main criticism around our play this season would be our overuse of mid to long balls down the wing which aren't much more sophisticated than playing into touch. Also in the final third we often look short of ideas which is odd because we've got so much experience up top. And the long throws at times!

Otherwise I'm pleased with how Pearson has got this squad playing and I'm fairly confident that he could get a stronger, more balanced version of this squad playing a more complete style. 

tomorrow night might be two fairly similar teams in style!

24 minutes ago, downendcity said:

I suspect that Fulham and QPR will be among the teams with the most shots against most opposition teams  in the championship over the season

As @ExiledAjaxsaid above, here’s the table:- open play only.

[Abraham Romanovich]

33 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, you may have noticed I added some additional overlays (box plot / whiskers) to my charts since you looked at them a couple of weeks ago….to show the quartile ranges.

Hands up who knows what box plot /whiskers are, I'm guessing nothing to do with multipack cat food.

 

 

 

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

Hands up who knows what box plot /whiskers are, I'm guessing nothing to do with multipack cat food.

 

 

 

8 out of 10 statisticians prefer them.

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I have to admit to struggling to see the value in this particular plot (to those reading this, this is not @Davefevs work so this is no slight on his good name). It is interesting to see how each team plays, but there's such little correlation between a team's position on this graph and their position in the table, or to who they beat and who they don't, that I find it hard to see the wood for the trees. 

I guess it perhaps shows just how many ways there are to skin the proverbial cat?