Unbelievable, Jeff!

[downendcity]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

8 out of 10 statisticians prefer them.

The other 3 aren’t real statisticians.

[chinapig]

17 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

Hands up who knows what box plot /whiskers are, I'm guessing nothing to do with multipack cat food.

 

 

 

The GCSE version

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zx7rk7h/revision/3

You'll have to look up range, interquartile range, median, lower quartile and upper quartile of course.

Happy to help.

Edited September 28, 2021 by chinapig

[Abraham Romanovich]

3 minutes ago, chinapig said:

The GCSE version

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zx7rk7h/revision/3

Happy to help.

To be honest I'm not sure it does i reached my zenith at differential calculus and it's been downhill from there better off leaving it to the young guns.

"A utilities company is researching the cost of household gas and electricity bills. They have analysed the data from hundreds of households and found that the median cost is £66 and the interquartile range is £21. The range is £27.50, the cheapest price was £47.50 and the upper quartile was £74. Represent this information with a box-and-whisker plot."

 

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I have to admit to struggling to see the value in this particular plot (to those reading this, this is not @Davefevs work so this is no slight on his good name). It is interesting to see how each team plays, but there's such little correlation between a team's position on this graph and their position in the table, or to who they beat and who they don't, that I find it hard to see the wood for the trees. 

I guess it perhaps shows just how many ways there are to skin the proverbial cat? 

Yep, it’s useful to understand team style…..there is no magic system / style…..no correlation to league position is attempted. I used a similar chart a lot last season in my “what can we expect” pre-match write-ups.

[Major Isewater]

39 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

Hands up who knows what box plot /whiskers are, I'm guessing nothing to do with multipack cat food.

 

 

 

Why don’t cats shave?

because 8 out of 10 prefer whiskers.

( Gotta love the Beano ) 

[chinapig]

14 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

To be honest I'm not sure it does i reached my zenith at differential calculus and it's been downhill from there better off leaving it to the young guns.

Blimey, if you mastered differential calculus you're already way ahead!

Personally I'm not so much a young gun as a rusty old musket.

[Dolman_Stand]

Simplistically it's because we are a better team playing better and more effective football. The stats follow the performances not the other way around.

[firstdivision]

4 hours ago, Steve Watts said:

Russell Osman presided over an away win against Liverpool - should we reappoint him....? As much as I liked LJ (but agreed it was past time for him to go), one swallow does not make a summer.

 

a) I’m not saying we should reappoint LJ - obvs. I’m saying there should be a bit more respect for him from some of our supporters. Life is not binary - one thing/person is not all bad or all good. There were plenty of swallows under LJ.

b) LJ’s record is better than Russell’s.

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by firstdivision

[downendcity]

1 hour ago, Dolman_Stand said:

Simplistically it's because we are a better team playing better and more effective football. The stats follow the performances not the other way around.

Even simpler, perhaps it’s because we are playing as a team, rather than 11 blokes who appear to have met  just before kick off.

[HappyClapper]

1 hour ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

To be honest I'm not sure it does i reached my zenith at differential calculus and it's been downhill from there better off leaving it to the young guns.

"A utilities company is researching the cost of household gas and electricity bills. They have analysed the data from hundreds of households and found that the median cost is £66 and the interquartile range is £21. The range is £27.50, the cheapest price was £47.50 and the upper quartile was £74. Represent this information with a box-and-whisker plot."

 

That’s actually pretty easy. Ask @Davefevs

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Dolman_Stand said:

Simplistically it's because we are a better team playing better and more effective football. The stats follow the performances not the other way around.

This is true, but honestly I wouldn't ever say that the statistics 'cause' the better performance. As you say, that isn't the case.

I've come to see the stats as one of three ways in which you can judge a club's performance. The others are i) the performance as one sees it, and ii) the result. By looking at each of those three aspects, and checking whether each supports or alternatively casts doubt on the others, you generally are able to arrive at a measured and relatively accurate view of the likelihood of a squad achieving its aims.

For a large part of the past 3 years our results have been far better than our performances and statistics suggest they should be. That road leads to success bias, where an organisation or person ignores underlying problems because the results continue to be good. In the long run that has the potential to lead to issues like we had in the summer (and in the summer of 2020) with a faltering team, contracts expiring, the club's finances (notwithstanding the pandemic) in trouble, and a hard reset needed. In reality that hard rest was needed in summer 2019, but this is the tendency to rest on ones laurels.

Right now there is better alignment between the three aspects. The performances look better to the eye, the statistics confirm that there are real improvements in key areas, and the results have broadly been in alignment with what those two aspects suggest. I would not pinpoint games and say "we should have won that one, or lost this one", but looking at the numbers you'd expect us to have around about 12 points and a GD of +2 right now, and we have 13 points and GD of +1. Therefore we are perhaps a couple of places higher up the table than I would expect, but at this stage of the season you can expect a greater degree of variance due to the very small sample size of 9 games.

[Norn Iron]

I had the privilege of flying over for the QPR game. My first match this season. Whilst I listen to every game (when it works) and watch all the Sky red button and domestic Robins tv games, there's nothing like being at the match.

QPR away showed me just how resilient and strong our defence is.

Kalas, Tanner, Baker and Atkinson are paid to re-enact Rourke's Drift when under constant attacks. That's their job. We know that QPR had more shots that day than Rovers have had all season (just guessing) etc and flow charts, spreadsheets, medial this and quasi medial that will confirm what we witnessed at QPR. But in Norwegian Janet and John language "our boys took one hell of a beating" but weren't beaten! 

For me, what I've seen this season is Nige do what we knew he would. He would get the defence to be a working unit. Nige will then get his midfield to be likewise.

We have seen how fantastic Han-Solo Massengo is! Others will realise they can shine in this team as well and if not, Nige won't pick them. 

Maybe Cod will be the missing link in our midfield. We wait.

For me, what I witnessed at QPR gives me great optimism for the future and a + goal difference is unbelievable!

 

 

 

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Norn Iron said:

I had the privilege of flying over for the QPR game. My first match this season. Whilst I listen to every game (when it works) and watch all the Sky red button and domestic Robins tv games, there's nothing like being at the match.

Yep, I am finally getting to a game when we play Forest at home in a couple of week's time. I am looking forward to seeing the Pearson iteration of BCFC live for the first time.

[downendcity]

2 hours ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

To be honest I'm not sure it does i reached my zenith at differential calculus and it's been downhill from there better off leaving it to the young guns.

"A utilities company is researching the cost of household gas and electricity bills. They have analysed the data from hundreds of households and found that the median cost is £66 and the interquartile range is £21. The range is £27.50, the cheapest price was £47.50 and the upper quartile was £74. Represent this information with a box-and-whisker plot."

 

I reached my zenith at times tables and it’s been downhill from there!

[Norn Iron]

1 minute ago, downendcity said:

I reached my zenith at times tables and it’s been downhill from there!

Don't change your name to Downhillcity.....

 

[downendcity]

6 minutes ago, Norn Iron said:

Don't change your name to Downhillcity.....

 

I live in Fenland so there’s nothing downhill around here!

QPR for you and Posh on Saturday for me - first chance to witness NP’s City in live action. 

[Norn Iron]

2 minutes ago, downendcity said:

I live in Fenland so there’s nothing downhill around here!

QPR for you and Posh on Saturday for me - first chance to witness NP’s City in live action. 

Will look forward Downend to your review..... petrol should be readily available by then so you'll be able to watch us get at least a point!

[Davefevs]

54 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Even simpler, perhaps it’s because we are playing as a team, rather than 11 blokes who appear to have met  just before kick off.

I think there is a lot of truth in that.  How many times have we naively looked at our own team since we returned to the Champ with delusions of grandeur and bemoaned losing to a less talented (in our eyes) but better organised team.  We are in that transition.

38 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

This is true, but honestly I wouldn't ever say that the statistics 'cause' the better performance. As you say, that isn't the case.

I've come to see the stats as one of three ways in which you can judge a club's performance. The others are i) the performance as one sees it, and ii) the result. By looking at each of those three aspects, and checking whether each supports or alternatively casts doubt on the others, you generally are able to arrive at a measured and relatively accurate view of the likelihood of a squad achieving its aims.

For a large part of the past 3 years our results have been far better than our performances and statistics suggest they should be. That road leads to success bias, where an organisation or person ignores underlying problems because the results continue to be good. In the long run that has the potential to lead to issues like we had in the summer (and in the summer of 2020) with a faltering team, contracts expiring, the club's finances (notwithstanding the pandemic) in trouble, and a hard reset needed. In reality that hard rest was needed in summer 2019, but this is the tendency to rest on ones laurels.

Right now there is better alignment between the three aspects. The performances look better to the eye, the statistics confirm that there are real improvements in key areas, and the results have broadly been in alignment with what those two aspects suggest. I would not pinpoint games and say "we should have won that one, or lost this one", but looking at the numbers you'd expect us to have around about 12 points and a GD of +2 right now, and we have 13 points and GD of +1. Therefore we are perhaps a couple of places higher up the table than I would expect, but at this stage of the season you can expect a greater degree of variance due to the very small sample size of 9 games.

Did you read my “Placebo” post from a few years back?  LJ (the good and bad before I get flamed) never used a period of stable team selection / system choice to evaluate what was working, what wasn’t.  Before I get jumped on, I’d say the stable teams of Autumn 2017, and again in 18/19 season that produced excellent results were not used to identify why, just like the runs of poor results weren’t used the other way.  Basically LJ winged it (being very harsh) and he got boom and bust as a result.  It’s a real shame, a wasted period in many respects. 

34 minutes ago, Norn Iron said:

I had the privilege of flying over for the QPR game. My first match this season. Whilst I listen to every game (when it works) and watch all the Sky red button and domestic Robins tv games, there's nothing like being at the match.

QPR away showed me just how resilient and strong our defence is.

Kalas, Tanner, Baker and Atkinson are paid to re-enact Rourke's Drift when under constant attacks. That's their job. We know that QPR had more shots that day than Rovers have had all season (just guessing) etc and flow charts, spreadsheets, medial this and quasi medial that will confirm what we witnessed at QPR. But in Norwegian Janet and John language "our boys took one hell of a beating" but weren't beaten! 

For me, what I've seen this season is Nige do what we knew he would. He would get the defence to be a working unit. Nige will then get his midfield to be likewise.

We have seen how fantastic Han-Solo Massengo is! Others will realise they can shine in this team as well and if not, Nige won't pick them. 

Maybe Cod will be the missing link in our midfield. We wait.

For me, what I witnessed at QPR gives me great optimism for the future and a + goal difference is unbelievable!

 

 

 

Great post.

Its what I expected him to do last season….but without a transfer window or a fit squad he realised (imho) that with enough points on the board and a glut of OOC players, he could really focus on the root cause, and then execute the plan over the summer.

The clues were there….He wanted 2 CBs and 2 CMs (and a striker), but most fans were talking full-backs and wingers (and a striker).

[Bazooka Joe]

49 minutes ago, downendcity said:

I live in Fenland so there’s nothing downhill around here!

QPR for you and Posh on Saturday for me - first chance to witness NP’s City in live action. 

So, are you a Flat Earther?

[downendcity]

45 minutes ago, Norn Iron said:

Will look forward Downend to your review..... petrol should be readily available by then so you'll be able to watch us get at least a point!

Luckily I filled up the day before the panic started ( empty warning light was on anyway). There should be more than enough to get me to golf and back on Friday, Posh and back Saturday (50 miles in total) and also  Heathrow and back in 10 days time for holiday in Corfu!

I remember seeing us at Posh during Cotterill’s title winning season. It was the first time I’d seen us  since Cotts took over and remember being impressed with the marked improvement since the last time I’d seen us during  SOD’s time. Fingers crossed I will have a similar impression on Saturday, although my recent views of the time have been through the TV screen.

 

[ExiledAjax]

23 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Did you read my “Placebo” post from a few years back?  LJ (the good and bad before I get flamed) never used a period of stable team selection / system choice to evaluate what was working, what wasn’t.  Before I get jumped on, I’d say the stable teams of Autumn 2017, and again in 18/19 season that produced excellent results were not used to identify why, just like the runs of poor results weren’t used the other way.  Basically LJ winged it (being very harsh) and he got boom and bust as a result.  It’s a real shame, a wasted period in many respects. 

If I did read it then then sorry but I don't recall it specifically. But I agree with the summary and my view was that LJ was, as a generalisation, reactive rather than proactive. He reacted to wins by keeping the same team, and to losses by changing everything. That was what I saw when you say he 'winged it'. However one describes it, it was a nightmare and would only ever lead to what you describe.

Honestly my favourite bit of Pearson so far is the changes he made pre-Cardiff, getting the win, and then reverting to his preferred overall method, but keeping a little bit of Baker at LB that worked so well in that game. He was proactive before the game, then analysed what particularly worked, but didn't get carried away with his own genius, and recognised that the squad needs consistency. That's how I saw it anyway.

23 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The clues were there….He wanted 2 CBs and 2 CMs (and a striker), but most fans were talking full-backs and wingers (and a striker).

Every team wants a striker, all the time.

[bcfcredandwhite]

17 hours ago, downendcity said:

It’s scary reading for sure!

This gave me nightmares when I was a little kid.....

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj_zfmq66HzAhUKTsAKHRsdDqYQwqsBegQIDRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DQSHd2rnkRTE&usg=AOvVaw2m56fvwQk3dnr2j2kYdJ-x

[downendcity]

15 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

So, are you a Flat Earther?

In Fenland there’s no other option!

 

[Bazooka Joe]

38 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

So, are you a Flat Earther?

2 minutes ago, downendcity said:

In Fenland there’s no other option!

Not surprised that as a City fan living there you're constantly on edge.

(or should I say a City fen?)

[downendcity]

7 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

Not surprised that as a City fan living there you're constantly on edge.

(or should I say a City fen?)

Yes, constantly on edge - that’s the edge of the early 20th century, which is  only a few miles away.  

[Bar BS3]

8 hours ago, Steve Watts said:

But got more points than any other team in the bottom 15. So swings and roundabouts eh?

Absolutely!

Im not criticising. I was just pointing out that those who were saying the biggest difference is the amount of goals we are scoring, probably aren't right. 

Or, if they are, then there's certainly room for improvement on that front. 

[Judda]

21 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I’ve really noticed how much less we pass the ball backwards. Incredible compared to LJ/DH. 

True but lots of long hopefull ones

[Fordy62]

24 minutes ago, Judda said:

True but lots of long hopefull ones

We’ve been long ball experts for the past 4 years!

[Judda]

20 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

We’ve been long ball experts for the past 4 years!

Or backwards passing experts!

[Davefevs]

City’s passing this season:

Green - forward

Light grey - lateral > 12metres

Dark grey - lateral < 12 metres

Red - backwards