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The Pearson Debate - Something Not Mentioned Yet…


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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Yeah, we should move on from LJ, but you know he lives in all of our heads!!! ???

My view was he did good things and bad things.

With all these things it’s rarely black or white.

What is important for me going forward is:

- a coherent recruitment strategy (imho it should be low cost and focussed (not purely though) on younger players)

- a style of play aligned to the above and vice-versa

Until this summer’s window is over it’s really difficult to judge how far into that journey we are.  My gut feel is that the foundations will be firm enough to build on post-summer, not pre-summer.  That might sound like further behind than we would like (it probably is) but we can’t really know until we know what is happening with Massengo, Semenyo and Scott, nor until we know about Palmer, Wells, Kalas, O’Dowda etc either.  I’m gonna enjoy the comings and goings.

 

Yes, good and bad. Definitely. But not to be reviled.

I have a question for you, Dave, re:16-19. I deduce from your figures that we lost about £39m in those three years (£104m minus £65m income on transfers). If so, is that really so bad if you have a rich owner? Isn’t that the luxury a rich owner affords you. It allows you to take risks and make mistakes without the consequences being too great (until something unforeseen like Covid knocks you off course, of course).
 

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1 hour ago, firstdivision said:

Yes, good and bad. Definitely. But not to be reviled.

I have a question for you, Dave, re:16-19. I deduce from your figures that we lost about £39m in those three years (£104m minus £65m income on transfers). If so, is that really so bad if you have a rich owner? Isn’t that the luxury a rich owner affords you. It allows you to take risks and make mistakes without the consequences being too great (until something unforeseen like Covid knocks you off course, of course).
 

In isolation, no it’s not bad, but it was the trend of having to sell more and more each year, whilst paying larger fees and wages (and committing us to those costs in future years) to replace them that concerned me.  And it came home to roost.

I started seriously looking at the finances in 17-18 when everyone was “moaning” we didn’t go for it / gamble in that Jan 18 window.  We signed Diony, Walsh and Kent.  My argument was that we did sort of gamble, by keeping Reid, Bryan (allegedly we turned down a bid) and Flint, but adding too with the 3 players mentioned.  I wasn’t sure whether a sustainable strategy would lead to promotion.  On reflection I think it can, but no surprise it relies on excellent recruitment, but also Academy players coming through.

Over a period of time I thought we used the money we made to buy quantity rather than quality, we didn’t really put any money made from Kelly and Webster “behind us”, we just spent it.  That worried me to

Although I didn’t expect Covid, I always feared a tv deal collapse or something like that, and worried we’d end up with expensive players worth less than we paid for them.  Maybe I should’ve just worried less! ?

This was coupled with nothing really coming through the academy…the source of Bryan £6m, Kelly £15m and Reid £10m (or whatever their amounts really were).  We only really had two big successes of players bought by LJ / MA and that was Brownhill and Webster.  So I had little faith in relying on “buy cheap, sell big”.

As it stands today, the big positives are that we have Scott and Semenyo coming through, and I really want to keep them.  I don’t really count Massengo, but lump the three in together.  We’ve possibly got Pring (and Benarous - hopefully in time) to add to that in the group below of slightly less valuable “home grown”.  We could do with Conway or Bell joining that group too.  That would really set us up.

I see clubs like Luton and Coventry doing what we should’ve been the trailblazers for.  We blew it.  Until we get our costs down (which we are under Pearson) we can’t reset our course for progress.

Thats how I see it anyway.

 

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5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

In isolation, no it’s not bad, but it was the trend of having to sell more and more each year, whilst paying larger fees and wages (and committing us to those costs in future years) to replace them that concerned me.  And it came home to roost.

I started seriously looking at the finances in 17-18 when everyone was “moaning” we didn’t go for it / gamble in that Jan 18 window.  We signed Diony, Walsh and Kent.  My argument was that we did sort of gamble, by keeping Reid, Bryan (allegedly we turned down a bid) and Flint, but adding too with the 3 players mentioned.  I wasn’t sure whether a sustainable strategy would lead to promotion.  On reflection I think it can, but no surprise it relies on excellent recruitment, but also Academy players coming through.

Over a period of time I thought we used the money we made to buy quantity rather than quality, we didn’t really put any money made from Kelly and Webster “behind us”, we just spent it.  That worried me to

Although I didn’t expect Covid, I always feared a tv deal collapse or something like that, and worried we’d end up with expensive players worth less than we paid for them.  Maybe I should’ve just worried less! ?

This was coupled with nothing really coming through the academy…the source of Bryan £6m, Kelly £15m and Reid £10m (or whatever their amounts really were).  We only really had two big successes of players bought by LJ / MA and that was Brownhill and Webster.  So I had little faith in relying on “buy cheap, sell big”.

As it stands today, the big positives are that we have Scott and Semenyo coming through, and I really want to keep them.  I don’t really count Massengo, but lump the three in together.  We’ve possibly got Pring (and Benarous - hopefully in time) to add to that in the group below of slightly less valuable “home grown”.  We could do with Conway or Bell joining that group too.  That would really set us up.

I see clubs like Luton and Coventry doing what we should’ve been the trailblazers for.  We blew it.  Until we get our costs down (which we are under Pearson) we can’t reset our course for progress.

Thats how I see it anyway.

 

You mention clubs like Luton/Coventry and there are no doubt others, lets get down to the nitty gritty here, what are they doing so well that we arent? i.mo. it has to be they are and have been better managed by managers selected by their chairman/board.

So bottom line is SL`s poor selection of managers/etc over the years has cost us/him, you could go back to the premature sacking of SC being the first of poor choices by SL and Dawe. We have not moved forward since then in fact have slowly regressed, yes we can blame players/managers etc but they didnt bring themselves here....step forward Steve nice stad/dream but some really poor choices of yours have got us here where we are today.

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5 hours ago, gl2 said:

You mention clubs like Luton/Coventry and there are no doubt others, lets get down to the nitty gritty here, what are they doing so well that we arent? i.mo. it has to be they are and have been better managed by managers selected by their chairman/board.

Quite simply (imho) they have a clear strategy,and they stick to it. That strategy is develop academy, buy players to polish, recruit to a system, keep costs down as a result, sell when player’s outgrow them. Something like that anyway!!!

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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Quite simply (imho) they have a clear strategy,and they stick to it. That strategy is develop academy, buy players to polish, recruit to a system, keep costs down as a result, sell when player’s outgrow them. Something like that anyway!!!

Is that not the same as SL`s 5 pillars, I believe we have had some good players in most areas of the pitch however we seem to sell/cash in on developing players too soon and dont replace them with players that are as good as those sold.

This is akin in my eyes to building something then knocking it down and then starting again and again, Developing players is pointless if we cant keep them, we are just helping others and paying for a long list of players that dont make the grade.

The only reason we are not matching the likes of Coventry/Luton and others that pass us by, is Steves past selections for management of this club.

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41 minutes ago, gl2 said:

Is that not the same as SL`s 5 pillars, I believe we have had some good players in most areas of the pitch however we seem to sell/cash in on developing players too soon and dont replace them with players that are as good as those sold.

This is akin in my eyes to building something then knocking it down and then starting again and again, Developing players is pointless if we cant keep them, we are just helping others and paying for a long list of players that dont make the grade.

The only reason we are not matching the likes of Coventry/Luton and others that pass us by, is Steves past selections for management of this club.

The 5 pillars model was effectively replaced by the bonkers (as Nigel put it) idea of continually increasing the wage bill well beyond what is sustainable or justifiable and gambling that we could keep bringing in big fees to fund it.

Not only did it not work it seemed to have no connection with any actual football strategy. Not surprising given Ashton had control over all day to day football activity (the club's words) while having little or no football expertise.

As an aside, when interviewed on the Price of Football podcast recently the Luton CEO reckoned their budget was in the bottom 3.

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4 hours ago, gl2 said:

Is that not the same as SL`s 5 pillars, I believe we have had some good players in most areas of the pitch however we seem to sell/cash in on developing players too soon and dont replace them with players that are as good as those sold.

This is akin in my eyes to building something then knocking it down and then starting again and again, Developing players is pointless if we cant keep them, we are just helping others and paying for a long list of players that dont make the grade.

The only reason we are not matching the likes of Coventry/Luton and others that pass us by, is Steves past selections for management of this club.

There’s defining the strategy and there’s executing the strategy.  5 pillars all sensible stuff.  We deviated from it.

China sums up what we did nicely below.  I still can’t believe that the expert accountant couldn’t see what was happening.  Was it a case of “Son, I’m stepping back, you’re in control now”?  Jon’s recent media comments (although not as bad as the reaction on here…by me too) came across as the comments of a fan, not the Chairman.  That’s disappointing!!!

3 hours ago, chinapig said:

The 5 pillars model was effectively replaced by the bonkers (as Nigel put it) idea of continually increasing the wage bill well beyond what is sustainable or justifiable and gambling that we could keep bringing in big fees to fund it.

Not only did it not work it seemed to have no connection with any actual football strategy. Not surprising given Ashton had control over all day to day football activity (the club's words) while having little or no football expertise.

As an aside, when interviewed on the Price of Football podcast recently the Luton CEO reckoned their budget was in the bottom 3.

I fully expect Luton are bottom 5 budget…and might possibly be bottom 3.

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On 23/03/2022 at 07:29, firstdivision said:

‘We no longer win a few and lose 12 on the bounce like we did under Johnson and Holden.’ A bit of fact checking wouldn’t go amiss here. 
Lee Johnson W84 D54 L79

Dean Holden W19 D5 L19

Nigel Pearson W14 D12 L29

There was a season when we lost six in a row under LJ and we also lost six in a row under DH before he was sacked.

NP lost four in a row in a run of two points from nine matches. 

I'll hold my hands up that I didn't fact check, but I do know we had a losing streak under LJ that was the worst in the clubs history. The specific point that I was making was that it isn't boom or bust under Nigel Pearson, just indifferent.

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On 23/03/2022 at 16:49, italian dave said:

Good post, and loads there that I agree with completely.

Just a couple of comments though:

Why the need to bring a dig at LJ into it? I just don't understand why so many of the debates on mangers on here descend into completely pointless and irrelevant comparisons between manager a and manager b. Whether you intended that or not, it's what's happened (see the posts subsequent to yours) and I don't get what relevance it has to the rest of what you're saying. Every manager is different, working in different circumstances, at different times, with different objectives and different staff around them. They (pretty much) all do the best job they can for Bristol City. Why does expressing support for one seem to require having a dig at another?

NP doesn't have a squad that's entirely his own -true - but very few managers do, especially given the average length of tenure. It's part of any manager's job (in football as elsewhere) to work with what you've got. And whilst I agree that motivation is just part of the jigsaw, it is a significant part.

Which leads to the points you make about objectives and about agents. The objective has certainly changed from the 'buy cheap, sell high' strategy that MA ran and LJ had to work with. I was encouraged that NP suggested recently the new strategy might focus not just on the academy (rather than buying in) but also on retaining our best players. I think, in retrospect, that the previous strategy had two flaws. One, we ended up with a focus that was entirely on the 'sell high' without any thought of having replacements etc lined up - and that's what broke LJ in the end. Secondly, it must be an agents dream because it establishes absolutely no buy in to Bristol City for any player - they know that they are being bought in order to be sold. I hope NP is right, but iy will be a big part of his job to get those good young players to buy into a future with Bristol City.

Lastly, I agree NP rarely talks bollocks, but that's because he rarely says anything at all! I have to admit that I've stopped listening to his pre and post match interviews for the most part - so maybe I'm being unfair - because I find them pretty inane. He just states the obvious - I can hear most of what he says post match from the people sitting around me during the game! It's the way he is, I guess. Like any City manager I'll support him because he's the City manager - and I sincerely hope you're right. he's clearly got strengths - but I don't see his interview technique as one!!

I can't see where I singled out LJ for criticism. I included LJ and DH as they were NP's predecessors. I do think that had NP been at the helm when there was money around that we might not have choked and missed out on the playoffs....but we'll never know. How we went from top of the league and semi-finalists in the Carabao Cup to missing out on even a playoff spot following the Wolves game is something I have never been able to work out. We certainly had the talent to compete, but something went wrong mentally with the players and LJ was unable to put that right.

LJ certainly talked utter drivel during his post match interviews. I did switch those off. DH was doomed from day one and thrown under the bus and that was down to MA. I think Nigel calls it out like it is and doesn't hide behind smoke and mirrors. You can't legislate for individual errors no matter how much you work on it in training. I like his interviews personally.

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On 23/03/2022 at 23:21, Davefevs said:

I see clubs like Luton and Coventry doing what we should’ve been the trailblazers for.

What is it that Luton do well, like specifically rather than generically? I'm actually just interested cos I don't follow it too closely and am impressed by their league position and results. It'd be an interesting one to see go up, don't expect they'd survive but we need something interesting to make up for Fulham's next dismal effort. 

That being said, are they just another Barnsley and they're having their moment? Every time I've watched Luton, got to be 5 or 6 times this season, they've been an awful watch, clearly lack actual quality but bang the results in. 

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On 23/03/2022 at 17:52, firstdivision said:

Can you always replace players with ones of similar quality or similar attributes though? Webster and Brownhill, for example. 
Plus, a manager can be hampered by selling players he doesn’t want to sell. As NP will probably experience this summer.

The other thing is that NP - and most other EFL clubs - are/will be operating in a market that has changed radically, one in which the bottom has fallen out. There could/should be some relative bargains compared to LJ’s time. So not easy to compare like for like. 
We were spend happy in the ‘good times’ before COVID-19 changed quite a bit and when MA was ‘in control’. 
I guess my overall point is that I find the constant and general snide remarks about LJ a bit tedious. Let’s move on. Face reality now. It’s reasonable to question NP as we discussed recently about comparative squad strength between the first half of last season and this season. 

 

Here is my sixpenneth on LJ.

I shuddered with total disappointment when he was appointed Head Coach. And I was proved correct.

A few highlights but mostly dismal tactics, measuring the height of grass, narrowing the pitch and dull boring football.

I know it's easy to be smart after the event but I had the same feelings with the arrivals of Pulis, Tinnion, Lumsden and Osman.

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55 minutes ago, Ostrich said:

What is it that Luton do well, like specifically rather than generically? I'm actually just interested cos I don't follow it too closely and am impressed by their league position and results. It'd be an interesting one to see go up, don't expect they'd survive but we need something interesting to make up for Fulham's next dismal effort. 

That being said, are they just another Barnsley and they're having their moment? Every time I've watched Luton, got to be 5 or 6 times this season, they've been an awful watch, clearly lack actual quality but bang the results in. 

Gradually building, sticking to their ethos, great recruitment (that matches playing style), etc.  I don’t like Nathan Jones per se, but he knows how he wants to play and between him, Phil Chapple / Mick Harford (the football men on the recruitment side) and Jay Socik (the data man in recruitment) they go and get players to fit that.

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2 hours ago, Gert Mare said:

I can't see where I singled out LJ for criticism. I included LJ and DH as they were NP's predecessors. I do think that had NP been at the helm when there was money around that we might not have choked and missed out on the playoffs....but we'll never know. How we went from top of the league and semi-finalists in the Carabao Cup to missing out on even a playoff spot following the Wolves game is something I have never been able to work out. We certainly had the talent to compete, but something went wrong mentally with the players and LJ was unable to put that right.

LJ certainly talked utter drivel during his post match interviews. I did switch those off. DH was doomed from day one and thrown under the bus and that was down to MA. I think Nigel calls it out like it is and doesn't hide behind smoke and mirrors. You can't legislate for individual errors no matter how much you work on it in training. I like his interviews personally.

I was a LJ fan, and felt you could see what he was trying to do in the season before the cup run. You could see the beginning of a playing style that season, despite results not always going well and many fans calling for his head (some similarities to now with NP actually). I think the cup run stopped LJ coaching and he got more and more obsessed with the one v one battle with the other coach. I think the fact he got one over on Mourihnio went to his head and he started adapting out playing style almost weekly. That nice high press football disappeared and players didn't know where they were. 

I think you can see something similar with NP at the moment. You can see how he wants us playing and every now and then it really comes together. It's a young inexperienced squad and if the summer goes well (not to many key players out and a few in the tanner/Atkinson mold come in) I think there are good reasons to think we can kick on. At the very least I'm confident that style of play will be more embedded. 

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2 hours ago, Gert Mare said:

I can't see where I singled out LJ for criticism. I included LJ and DH as they were NP's predecessors. I do think that had NP been at the helm when there was money around that we might not have choked and missed out on the playoffs....but we'll never know. How we went from top of the league and semi-finalists in the Carabao Cup to missing out on even a playoff spot following the Wolves game is something I have never been able to work out. We certainly had the talent to compete, but something went wrong mentally with the players and LJ was unable to put that right.

LJ certainly talked utter drivel during his post match interviews. I did switch those off. DH was doomed from day one and thrown under the bus and that was down to MA. I think Nigel calls it out like it is and doesn't hide behind smoke and mirrors. You can't legislate for individual errors no matter how much you work on it in training. I like his interviews personally.

On LJ, I think it was just the way you phrased it. “Win a few then lose 12 on the bounce” is a slightly provocative, and a little unbalanced, way of putting it - particularly in respect of a manager who had more wins than defeats. In my view!

And as I said, I didn’t feel you were necessarily trying to make a big issue if that, but it seems to be like a red rag to a bull, and you’ve only got to look at the posts that followed….

Every manager has good spells and bad, good runs and poor runs. NP has just come out of a shocking run of, what, 13 away games without a win. 

Im as puzzled as you what happened after that Wolves game, although we still got close. I think the following season it was starting to lose key players suddenly and without any replacement ready to go that was what unsettled LJ. 

I guess the post match stuff is really just personal preference. I just found LJ, for all the crap he’d come out with sometimes, more insightful. For me, NP doesn’t so much tell it like it is as state the bleeding obvious! But perhaps that’s just me.

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On 24/03/2022 at 15:23, chinapig said:

 

As an aside, when interviewed on the Price of Football podcast recently the Luton CEO reckoned their budget was in the bottom 3.

 

On 24/03/2022 at 19:16, Davefevs said:

 

I fully expect Luton are bottom 5 budget…and might possibly be bottom 3.

This is simultaneously demoralising and encouraging. Depressing and inspiring. To think they were in the Conference in 2014!

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20 hours ago, italian dave said:

On LJ, I think it was just the way you phrased it. “Win a few then lose 12 on the bounce” is a slightly provocative, and a little unbalanced, way of putting it - particularly in respect of a manager who had more wins than defeats. In my view!

And as I said, I didn’t feel you were necessarily trying to make a big issue if that, but it seems to be like a red rag to a bull, and you’ve only got to look at the posts that followed….

Every manager has good spells and bad, good runs and poor runs. NP has just come out of a shocking run of, what, 13 away games without a win. 

Im as puzzled as you what happened after that Wolves game, although we still got close. I think the following season it was starting to lose key players suddenly and without any replacement ready to go that was what unsettled LJ. 

I guess the post match stuff is really just personal preference. I just found LJ, for all the crap he’d come out with sometimes, more insightful. For me, NP doesn’t so much tell it like it is as state the bleeding obvious! But perhaps that’s just me.

Fair play. Football is all about opinions. LJ was forced to sell key players, but if my memory serves me right it wasn’t in the cup run season, although we also failed to strengthen in the January transfer window that year which was barmy considering that we were in the top 6 at the time.

I think LJ’s biggest mistake was trying to over complicate football and in the end it seemed to be more about possession than end product and the amount of sideways passing during some games almost sent me into a coma.

At least now we try and have a go in games. We lack creativity at times, but we appear fitter under NP. 

LJ did well to keep us up when he was first appointed and when we played Man U I felt we could have kicked on and reached the Premier League. I suppose that there will always be pluses and minuses during any managers tenure? 

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20 hours ago, BCFC Richard said:

I was a LJ fan, and felt you could see what he was trying to do in the season before the cup run. You could see the beginning of a playing style that season, despite results not always going well and many fans calling for his head (some similarities to now with NP actually). I think the cup run stopped LJ coaching and he got more and more obsessed with the one v one battle with the other coach. I think the fact he got one over on Mourihnio went to his head and he started adapting out playing style almost weekly. That nice high press football disappeared and players didn't know where they were. 

I think you can see something similar with NP at the moment. You can see how he wants us playing and every now and then it really comes together. It's a young inexperienced squad and if the summer goes well (not to many key players out and a few in the tanner/Atkinson mold come in) I think there are good reasons to think we can kick on. At the very least I'm confident that style of play will be more embedded. 

I agree that winning against Mourihnio went to LJ’s head in terms of his ego.

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23 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

Here is my sixpenneth on LJ.

I shuddered with total disappointment when he was appointed Head Coach. And I was proved correct.

A few highlights but mostly dismal tactics, measuring the height of grass, narrowing the pitch and dull boring football.

I know it's easy to be smart after the event but I had the same feelings with the arrivals of Pulis, Tinnion, Lumsden and Osman.

IMO he was never ever going to change your opinion as it was already formed - don’t worry we have all been there so not a dig 

2 hours ago, Gert Mare said:

I agree that winning against Mourihnio went to LJ’s head in terms of his ego.

Let’s have an example? 

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55 minutes ago, Rob k said:

IMO he was never ever going to change your opinion as it was already formed - don’t worry we have all been there so not a dig 

Let’s have an example? 

His style of play. Plenty of matches where we were happy to knock it across the back four without trying to attack. It was an absolute bore fest. 

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1 hour ago, Rob k said:

IMO he was never ever going to change your opinion as it was already formed - don’t worry we have all been there so not a dig 

Let’s have an example? 

To answer that form my perspective - I would say that the point I was making was very much my opinion - I'm not claiming it as fact. However after that the Man U game I felt that he often referred to himself and the team separately and talked a lot about relishing the individual duals with other managers (admittedly more so with higher profile managers) and highlighted what he had got right. We often tweaked tactics notably in those games against high profile managers (trying to out Warnock, Warnock for example). I tired to find some quotes, but searches are swamped with media surrounding his time at sunderand - below are a few examples I could find quickly.

On Guardiola  - never had the opportunity to  play in the Premier League and I  think I’m a better manager than I was a footballer. We scored a good goal against them and nearly scored another from a  set-piece free-kick routine against  their high line.And that was one of the funny things me and Pep shared because I told him had we scored from that, I would have retired there and then! We were having a good laugh about it and I told him, ‘Watch out next time — we will have a new one for you. Whether we had won, lost or drawn on the night, it was a great experience for me and my players.

On Bielsa - "I knew of his disciples [before he came], if you like: (Mauricio) Pochettino and (Pep) Guardiola and I have a huge amount of respect for him, and his reputation precedes him. I think it shows what a fantastic league this is that the likes of me, a 37-year-old head coach with a good club that's in sixth position going up against an internationally-renowned manager. Obviously, that's not the main story - that's the 11 lads playing against a Leeds XI. But, of course, I always want to personally challenge myself and this is a game where we can do that."

Wolves 2019 (FA Cup game) - "I know Nuno well because I did my coaching badges with him so I was the one hitting the diags [diagnonal passes] in the coaching in his sessions in the coaching badges, so I know exactly how he likes to play. The goal was a good example. So I changed to a five - a positive five in terms of a 3-5-2 - and got another man up-front closer to Famara and three in the middle and went toe-to-toe with their three and it worked pretty well."

Nothing awful, just a lot of his comments pre and post game started to be about tactics and when we one, he was increasingly quick to highlight his part in that. 

Again, I supported LJ I think he is a great coach, overall I enjoyed his time here and think he'll have a good career as a manager - this is just my personal opinion of where he went wrong. 

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