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Is this a relegation season?


Marina's Rolls Royce
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Thanks Mr P, Fevs etc. for continued insight into FFP. 

Last night was woeful, not only is the squad lacking in quality, but it is evidently far too light. With injuries as they are, and with some players evidently not trusted by Nige, the lack of options off the bench was scary really. For all the talk of the ineffectiveness of loan options, Nige has to try and get at least 2 in January - it might be a bit punty, but needs must I think. We lack in a lot of areas currently, but one thing that I believe can be easier to find in young loan players is pace, and it is something we seem to lack in spades. 

Edited by underhanded
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2 hours ago, YGBjammy said:

It's a rebuild year, for a club that was in proper relegation form last season.

We've just had a summer with much reduced spending capacity, in fact the main thing we had to do was reduce the spending on wages.

As fevs said, I'd much rather do a rebuild as a weak team in the championship than as a strong/okay team in league one.

I think we'll stay up, but might be closer than we would have liked. Hopefully see some reinforcements in January; maybe some loans working those contacts of Nige's!

That’s my view of the latest trend.  But I’m not panicking.  Get through Saturday, two week break.  Semenyo, Williams, Conway back hopefully, Baker this weekend hopefully.  A few players rested up.

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1 hour ago, Tomo said:

I was expecting the worst when I clicked on that link. We are on a terrible run yet Cardiff, Peterborough, Barnsley still below us. Derby one point better over 6 games but 14 points behind with a further deduction likely. Extrapolate that over the last 30 games and we’re fine. 👍

Think we’ll be a different proposition with Baker, Williams and Semenyo available.

Hold your nerve!!

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Quite simply the current squad are not Championship standard, especially in midfield, Our only hope of staying up is for Williams to actually remain fit for  more than ten minutes and bring in at least two quality midfielders and replacement experienced full backs In January.

If we don,t, League One next season.

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We cannot rely on Williams suddenly becoming fit enough to play 90% of the time.

Semenyo is still unproven as a striker or provider. James and King are experienced but don't impose themselves on the opposition.

I respect Martin's record at this level but every game he plays, his influence diminishes.

We are fortunate to be ten points away from the drop zone but it's still too early in the season to rely on that for our safety.

Recruitment in January will decide whether we stay up or not.

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It may come down to what magic the medical team can weave. I don't think we have mid table strength in depth, and we're too close to that dashed line, too early. Yes some players will come back from injury, but then we'll lose some to injury over the winter. If this form carries on, the pressure will become so great I can see something breaking around February time. Maybe a fresh face will get us a few wins to stay above the line. It's not like we haven't seen that pattern before. 

I would much rather have seen a top manager and money to spend at the same time. Maybe one day we'll get it right.

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Looking in from the outside I would say your a long way off from being relegation fodder but things change so quick in football and lose a couple more on the trot and the rot could easily set in.

i do wonder why nobody else wanted Pearson when he was out of work as he hasn't been without his controversy over the years even though he had succeeded periods. Maybe his old style management has run its course and you need a younger manager with different ideas but also one who has shown progression throughout his career.

I can't believe you've lacked funds in the transfer windows but I would question who is choosing the payers you sign plus the ones that have been there a while as they also have to take the blame

Clearly things aren't right behind the scenes as Pearson wouldn't have got rid of his backroom staff if they were all rosey.

To me you're going backwards even compared to when Johnson was in charge as he had you in and around the play offs and gave you a great cup run.

Big decisions for Lansdown if things don't turn around soon as he will be aware the natives are becoming restless.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Shaun Taylor said:

I can't believe you've lacked funds in the transfer windows 

This is the great anomaly / frustration in that we probably do have funds available, courtesy of Mr Lansdown, but we cannot spend anything of note due to FFP, even if he made those funds available.

Extremely frustrating but it's where we are after too much spent on players / wages over the last few years.

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16 minutes ago, Shaun Taylor said:

Looking in from the outside I would say your a long way off from being relegation fodder but things change so quick in football and lose a couple more on the trot and the rot could easily set in.

i do wonder why nobody else wanted Pearson when he was out of work as he hasn't been without his controversy over the years even though he had succeeded periods. Maybe his old style management has run its course and you need a younger manager with different ideas but also one who has shown progression throughout his career.

I can't believe you've lacked funds in the transfer windows but I would question who is choosing the payers you sign plus the ones that have been there a while as they also have to take the blame

Clearly things aren't right behind the scenes as Pearson wouldn't have got rid of his backroom staff if they were all rosey.

To me you're going backwards even compared to when Johnson was in charge as he had you in and around the play offs and gave you a great cup run.

Big decisions for Lansdown if things don't turn around soon as he will be aware the natives are becoming restless.

 

 

These sort of posts irritate me as the clear impact of rules around finance are dismissed as being made up.

 

By a Swindon fan!

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9 minutes ago, The Bard said:

We're 10 points clear of Hull Barnsley and Derby. Just beaten 1 of them with Derby 14 points behind with a further points deduction likely.

It doesn't look likely. It does look disappointing though.

Barnsley at home to Derby tonight

Cardiff at home to QPR

West Brom at home to Hull

 

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15 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Enough of the Ashton Johnson Lansdown blame triangle.

I've been supporting City long enough to get the feel- and the feel is that we are fodder. NP has been a top manager in his day but his day has gone- just look at the stats.

Is it Nige's fault? Probably not but , imo, a different solution is needed sooner than later. It was much much better with Lee but that's not part of the NP messiah narrative.

We will go down unless SL/JL take financial and coaching action now.

At this moment in time? Yes, it's 100% a relegation season IMO.

Very little quality in depth, just look at our bench last night.

Flogging our half decent players to the point of injury - Massengo, James, Martin (was once a half decent player!) - King, Williams, Baker already out

We now go into Saturday with a scarily weak looking team, not just in experience but in presence and ability.

What's most worrying about last night is even the fight appeared to be gone. Heads dropped and people stopped running.

I'm not Pearson out, because I don't think anyone else will get anything out of these players. We can only hope for some incoming players in January IMO

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So I've said a few times over the past few seasons that xG gives a decent indication of where we might be heading. It's yet to let me down significantly, although last season's bumper first ten games gave us enough of a cushion that we never fully caught up - pointswise at least - with the indication.

Well right now if I look at the data that hasn't failed me for 5 seasons...we are right down in the relegation mix in most tables I see. Bottom three in some, others have us 18th or 19th.

So, on that basis we still have time. It's not a dead cert right now, with a little luck, a little more nous, and a big effort from everyone, we can pull clear and finish one or to places safe. 

It's what I expected tbh, a tricky season, a dip into the bottom three at some point, but ultimately just having enough to get 50 - 55 points and landing 17th - 19th.

Derby's points deduction is one hell of a boon for us as well it has to be said.

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4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

So I've said a few times over the past few seasons that xG gives a decent indication of where we might be heading. It's yet to let me down significantly, although last season's bumper first ten games gave us enough of a cushion that we never fully caught up - pointswise at least - with the indication.

Well right now if I look at the data that hasn't failed me for 5 seasons...we are right down in the relegation mix in most tables I see. Bottom three in some, others have us 18th or 19th.

So, on that basis we still have time. It's not a dead cert right now, with a little luck, a little more nous, and a big effort from everyone, we can pull clear and finish one or to places safe. 

It's what I expected tbh, a tricky season, a dip into the bottom three at some point, but ultimately just having enough to get 50 - 55 points and landing 17th - 19th.

Derby's points deduction is one hell of a boon for us as well it has to be said.

Very optimistic outlook. Hope you are right.

My fear is that we are regressing as a team and that the players look totally bereft of confidence, belief or organisation. 

Can't suddenly pull out of a "tail spin" like that.

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50 minutes ago, The Bard said:

We're 10 points clear of Hull Barnsley and Derby. Just beaten 1 of them with Derby 14 points behind with a further points deduction likely.

It doesn't look likely. It does look disappointing though.

I agree, all these claims of "we're in a relegation scrap" are way too premature right now. 

However, I suspect the reason some are anticipating one is due to the fact that for the past three seasons we have started well/ok, and steadily got worse as the season goes on. 

If that reoccurs this season, then given our points tally to date, we could yet find ourselves in a scrap.

If we contrive to finish below the likes of Barnsley and Derby though, then rest assured we'll have fully deserved to have gone down. 

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21 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

So I've said a few times over the past few seasons that xG gives a decent indication of where we might be heading. It's yet to let me down significantly, although last season's bumper first ten games gave us enough of a cushion that we never fully caught up - pointswise at least - with the indication.

Well right now if I look at the data that hasn't failed me for 5 seasons...we are right down in the relegation mix in most tables I see. Bottom three in some, others have us 18th or 19th.

So, on that basis we still have time. It's not a dead cert right now, with a little luck, a little more nous, and a big effort from everyone, we can pull clear and finish one or to places safe. 

It's what I expected tbh, a tricky season, a dip into the bottom three at some point, but ultimately just having enough to get 50 - 55 points and landing 17th - 19th.

Derby's points deduction is one hell of a boon for us as well it has to be said.

I like your optimism and i hope your right.

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8 minutes ago, VT05763 said:

Very optimistic outlook. Hope you are right.

My fear is that we are regressing as a team and that the players look totally bereft of confidence, belief or organisation. 

Can't suddenly pull out of a "tail spin" like that.

Regressing from what though? From where we were when NP took over? I don't think so. We're fractionally better in terms of output than we were then. We're taking more shots, more on target, scoring more, conceding fewer etc. We're not brilliant, and it started from a very low place, but we're better than we were.

Have we regressed from where we were after 6 games this season, perhaps yes, but in my opinion there is still time to get back closer to that early season stuff if we make a few changes and get one or two back to their fitness or full potential. Doing that would hopefully reconstruct the confidence, belief and organisation that you rightly point out is missing.

There's no doubt we are in trouble, but it remains possible to get out of it with what we currently have.

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3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Regressing from what though? From where we were when NP took over? I don't think so. We're fractionally better in terms of output than we were then. We're taking more shots, more on target, scoring more, conceding fewer etc. We're not brilliant, and it started from a very low place, but we're better than we were.

Have we regressed from where we were after 6 games this season, perhaps yes, but in my opinion there is still time to get back closer to that early season stuff if we make a few changes and get one or two back to their fitness or full potential. Doing that would hopefully reconstruct the confidence, belief and organisation that you rightly point out is missing.

There's no doubt we are in trouble, but it remains possible to get out of it with what we currently have.

You may well be right, I'm not convinced but as you say get Williams, Baker and Semenyo in the team and they should improve us to the level of staying up,

in theory anyway.

 

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16 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Enough of the Ashton Johnson Lansdown blame triangle.

We may well get relegated (though I think we'll just survive,) but our predicament falls squarely at the feet of those mentioned. To discuss our failings without reference to them is meaningless.

Lansdown fault extends only as far as it's his money that's been flushed down the pan. He shouldn't have listened to Johnson & Ashton and should have better questioned their motives, but it is they and they alone who've brought this club low.

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9 minutes ago, VT05763 said:

You may well be right, I'm not convinced but as you say get Williams, Baker and Semenyo in the team and they should improve us to the level of staying up,

in theory anyway.

 

Yep, it is just a theory.

Equally possible is that Weimann gets crocked next week, Bentley gets Covid, and we're utterly buggered.

I'm just saying, I'm not writing us off just yet.

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Barnsley at home to Derby tonight

Cardiff at home to QPR

West Brom at home to Hull

 

Can’t believe we are having to look at results already 🙈 but it was always going to be a bumpy ride this season.  Think we have enough because of others deficiencies but fear it could be closer than is comfortable. Just need to get through it by hook or by crook. 

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9 minutes ago, Swede said:

Keep posting ST, you're very welcome on here [you'd be banned on slagchat as being "one of them gurt teds"]

Cheers Swede, including yourself there's some decent posters on here who have been more than welcoming over the years. 

I do follow your club closely and wish you well but I'm also mypthed why you can't get it right on them pitch considering everyting is in place to be successful.

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