So much better.

[ExiledAjax]

3 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

An improvement on NP's results last season. A clear indication of gradual improvement.

I think that many either forget, or did not full appreciate, just how absolutely utterly godawful we were at the point that Holden was sacked.

The below table compares a few key metrics across Holden's final 10 games, Pearson's games at the end of last season, and his games so far this season. It shows the raw numbers, the numbers adjusted for a per game basis, and also the % differences between the per game numbers across the three data sets.

Our attacking output has improved massively under Pearson. We've nearly doubled our average xG per game versus where we were when Holden left, and it's increased by nearly 60% this season compared to Pearson's games last season. We've gone from being almost certain not to score in any given game, to having a healthy, if not spectacular, 1.2 xG per match.

That is reflected in goals scored, up from less than 1 per game during the dying light of Holden's time, to a round 1 per game in Pearson's initial tenure, to more than 1 per game this season. That's a 23% rise, and if it stays like that gives us just over 50 goals for the season, which would be more than the total managed last season. This rise in goals scored is in part due to the 57% increase in the number of shots on target we are creating. Again, Pearson increased that figure once last season, and has then improved upon it again this season.

Defensively we allow about as many shots, and shots on target, now as we did under Holden. There's no doubt that this is a key area that could be improved. However, Pearson has corrected the small rise we saw in that metric at the end of last season. Also, despite this, we have actually seen our goals per game conceded reduce by more than 20%, down from a truly appalling 2 per game (thanks Watford) in the final 10 Holden games, to a better 1.6 per game this season. This is still less than ideal, especially when balanced against only scoring 1.1 per game, but it represents improvement against Holden, and also against Pearson's 1.8 per game at the end of last season.

We have not been transformed into a free flowing attacking side with a rock wall of a defence. However, all of the above adds up to Pearson currently bringing in 1.1 points per game this season, a 23% improvement on Holden's sunset days, and a vast 73% improvement on the final 14 games of last season. The numbers are moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction.

All of the above represents "An improvement on NP's results last season." as well as "A clear indication of gradual improvement."

I'd also add that aesthetically speaking I was entertained by today's game. I also enjoyed 89 minutes of the Forest game, plus the Fulham, Swansea and Blackpool games, and even at times the Barnsley match. Small matter maybe, but a big increase in the amount of actual pleasure I take in watching City when compared to almost any point in the 2020/21 season.

[Alessandro]

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think that many either forget, or did not full appreciate, just how absolutely utterly godawful we were at the point that Holden was sacked.

The below table compares a few key metrics across Holden's final 10 games, Pearson's games at the end of last season, and his games so far this season. It shows the raw numbers, the numbers adjusted for a per game basis, and also the % differences between the per game numbers across the three data sets.

Our attacking output has improved massively under Pearson. We've nearly doubled our average xG per game versus where we were when Holden left, and it's increased by nearly 60% this season compared to Pearson's games last season. We've gone from being almost certain not to score in any given game, to having a healthy, if not spectacular, 1.2 xG per match.

That is reflected in goals scored, up from less than 1 per game during the dying light of Holden's time, to a round 1 per game in Pearson's initial tenure, to more than 1 per game this season. That's a 23% rise, and if it stays like that gives us just over 50 goals for the season, which would be more than the total managed last season. This rise in goals scored is in part due to the 57% increase in the number of shots on target we are creating. Again, Pearson increased that figure once last season, and has then improved upon it again this season.

Defensively we allow about as many shots, and shots on target, now as we did under Holden. There's no doubt that this is a key area that could be improved. However, Pearson has corrected the small rise we saw in that metric at the end of last season. Also, despite this, we have actually seen our goals per game conceded reduce by more than 20%, down from a truly appalling 2 per game (thanks Watford) in the final 10 Holden games, to a better 1.6 per game this season. This is still less than ideal, especially when balanced against only scoring 1.1 per game, but it represents improvement against Holden, and also against Pearson's 1.8 per game at the end of last season.

We have not been transformed into a free flowing attacking side with a rock wall of a defence. However, all of the above adds up to Pearson currently bringing in 1.1 points per game this season, a 23% improvement on Holden's sunset days, and a vast 73% improvement on the final 14 games of last season. The numbers are moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction.

All of the above represents "An improvement on NP's results last season." as well as "A clear indication of gradual improvement."

I'd also add that aesthetically speaking I was entertained by today's game. I also enjoyed 89 minutes of the Forest game, plus the Fulham, Swansea and Blackpool games, and even at times the Barnsley match. Small matter maybe, but a big increase in the amount of actual pleasure I take in watching City when compared to almost any point in the 2020/21 season.

R.E Goals scored - worth adding also that we've lost and not really replaced our top goal scorer for the last 3 seasons in Famara.

[Southport Red]

10 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

You do realise we drew?  Good first half then same old same old. A swallow during a snow storm does not make a summer.

I have and the answer is money.IMO.

Money?. Are you kidding?  He has spent money on a CH from Oxford and a FB from Carlisle. Sure James, King etc have come in but NP has been given pocket change compared to LJ. 

[Tin Soldier]

10 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

33 games and 7 wins. 

Never in the history of BCFC has a manager been given such latitude for such appallingly consistent performances combined with actual results.IMO.

You obviously know nothing about the mess NP was left to clear up. What a rediculous Post. 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

24 minutes ago, Southport Red said:

Money?. Are you kidding?  He has spent money on a CH from Oxford and a FB from Carlisle. Sure James, King etc have come in but NP has been given pocket change compared to LJ. 

In your hurry to join the band wagon of "how very dare you criticise Pearson" you tripped over yourself.

In an answer to Davefevs, I said money was the reason NP had been given latitude- i.e. to change him would cost SL another small fortune which he clearly doesnt want to spend on anything atm- he's looking for investment not expenditure.

[Globe Trotter]

I wasn’t there yesterday but certainly sounds like an improvement all round. 
 

I’d be much happier watching City with the likes of Scott and Benarous given their chance rather than recycling the same old players who have obviously been part of the problem. 

Key could be getting Williams to play 15-20 games in a row rather than in for a couple out for a couple with injuries, looks very good from the little I’ve seen and we should be looking to build the midfield around him. 

[Waconda]

1 minute ago, Globe Trotter said:

I wasn’t there yesterday but certainly sounds like an improvement all round. 
 

I’d be much happier watching City with the likes of Scott and Benarous given their chance rather than recycling the same old players who have obviously been part of the problem. 

Key could be getting Williams to play 15-20 games in a row rather than in for a couple out for a couple with injuries, looks very good from the little I’ve seen and we should be looking to build the midfield around him. 

I agree and Williams was outstanding yesterday and perhaps the catalyst we needed.

But the biggest improvement for me was that there actually looked like we had a plan, had been working hard on the training ground and were organised.

All things that should be a given before you start to analyse individuals performances.

Just one game but encouraging that it looks like the "penny has dropped" that we couldn't go on like before.

[Bodiesaffer]

Sometimes you need to go backwards before you go forwards.  I had different felling yesterday.
It’s work in progress.  I left the ground yesterday thinking, could Semenyo and Wells be the two to form a partnership?  

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

9 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Bristol City FC - 29th October 2016 to 7th March 2017 - played 22 - won 2 - lost 14 - drew 6 ... that was pretty dismal and included a run of 8 straight defeats - and it also included surrendering promising leads eg a 3 goal lead and a 2 goal lead - the head coach kept his job - he was shown plenty of ‘latitude’ don’t you think? 

and what specifically were the the results of the next 11 games after 7th March? Total after 33? I have chosen to quote the results from the whole of NP's tenure whilst you have chosen the worst period of a previous manager using less matches. If you want to make a valid point then do so using like for like.

8 hours ago, Pezo said:

I think he has another year of understanding as long as we see effort from players (keep playing like we did against Cov and he's got months, play like we did today and he will get time), after that he would have had plenty of time to shift players on, get some in and implement his ideas.

I can see the second half of next season being a little rough for him.

I see the second half of matches being a bit rough on us all

8 hours ago, The Horse With No Name said:

You sound as though you have made up your mind on NP, and are willing him to fail now, and that equates to hoping City lose to prove your point.

There speaks someone who cannot be a true supporter if that's really how your mind works- Anyone who would like to City lose matches to prove some point on an anonymous forum cannot be a supporter. I have formed an opinion on NP and if results change then so will my opinion.

 

8 hours ago, KeepUpLino said:

For such a seasoned poster it amazes me the shit you’re are giving to NP, when was the last time a manager took over in such dire circumstances with no finances and a totally shite team… Christ I’ve been a negative poster in my time but even I can see that he’s up the river without a paddle!

Have a ******* word with yourself!

From you, the master of vitriol  ??? Hahaha!

9 hours ago, Alessandro said:

If you employ a builder to repair a fire damaged house, and all he has to work with is recycling and renovating undamaged or slightly damaged structure without the budget to buy the new materials, you don't blame him when progress is slow or hits a few snags....

 

It's all about opinions and I look at BCFC and its owners and historic investment combined with the facilities and don't see the same mess you do- I see it at Reading and Derby. I look at the squad and see enough potential and current ability to stay well clear of relegation. I do hold a Manager responsible if his team is capable of delivering but consistently don't. I dont dislike NP, I dont find him too short or too fat or whatever the often used terms on this forum are when someone is not performing or are a scape goat. 

 

 

 

On a forum we are all entitled to opinions. Mine is different to yours and  ongoing results will no doubt be the proof of the pudding either way. If NP turns it all around then I'll certainly change my opinion which is usual in the fickle world of football.

Meanwhile, I'll carry on going to matches and vocally supporting this team and manager saving my frustrations for this anonymous forum.

 

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Alessandro said:

R.E Goals scored - worth adding also that we've lost and not really replaced our top goal scorer for the last 3 seasons in Famara.

Wells was top scorer last season

@JonDolmanjust a quick Q re Holden and players available….subjectively, do you think Pearson has had a better squad to pick from than Holden, as he’s had injuries too?  Without diving back through games, he played Towler a couple of times.  Because he had a bigger squad to start from, the injuries didn’t help, but they didn’t hamper him as much.  Yes he had key players out, but Nige has too.  Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t “Dean had it easy” question, because he didn’t, but I think he was lucky in some respects to have a big squad to start with, able to loan out Palmer, even thinking the same with Massengo.

[Waconda]

21 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Wells was top scorer last season

@JonDolmanjust a quick Q re Holden and players available….subjectively, do you think Pearson has had a better squad to pick from than Holden, as he’s had injuries too?  Without diving back through games, he played Towler a couple of times.  Because he had a bigger squad to start from, the injuries didn’t help, but they didn’t hamper him as much.  Yes he had key players out, but Nige has too.  Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t “Dean had it easy” question, because he didn’t, but I think he was lucky in some respects to have a big squad to start with, able to loan out Palmer, even thinking the same with Massengo.

I think it is fair to say that NP has had a superior "fit and available" squad than Holden did.

When Holden had his first eleven available, we were top of the league I believe ? (admittedly after 5 games).

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, VT05763 said:

I think it is fair to say that NP has had a superior "fit and available" squad than Holden did.

When Holden had his first eleven available, we were top of the league I believe ? (admittedly after 5 games).

For info, this was the line-up for Holden’s final game….at the height of his injury troubles (v Reading)

For context I also chose the sub v Huddersfield.

I’m not convinced Dean had it tougher to be honest.  

Same here, a bench with Hint, Nagy, Massengo and Nartin.

What I’m saying is he had injuries, but he still had a big squad.  Who he chose to play and in what system was still open to choice.

Do you stand by your comment having seen these two line-ups?  Fine if you do, but it’s nowhere near as black and white as you’d think is it?

 

[Waconda]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

For info, this was the line-up for Holden’s final game….at the height of his injury troubles (v Reading)

For context I also chose the sub v Huddersfield.

I’m not convinced Dean had it tougher to be honest.  

Same here, a bench with Hint, Nagy, Massengo and Nartin.

What I’m saying is he had injuries, but he still had a big squad.  Who he chose to play and in what system was still open to choice.

Do you stand by your comment having seen these two line-ups?  Fine if you do, but it’s nowhere near as black and white as you’d think is it?

 

But those teams are full of "deadwood" and players deemed not good enough to wear the shirt currently - Can't have it both ways.

I am confident in my opinion that NP has had a better squad of players available to him to pick from

but others opinion may differ.

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by VT05763

[Son of Fred]

2 hours ago, VT05763 said:

Just one game but encouraging that it looks like the "penny has dropped" that we couldn't go on like before.

We'll see on Wednesday night against a tough & very physical Stoke outfit ..

Second from top in the 'fair play' league v second from bottom..

Will be interesting!

 

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, VT05763 said:

But those teams are full of "deadwood" and players deemed not good enough to wear the shirt currently - Can't have it both ways.

I am confident in my opinion that NP has had a better squad of players available for him to pick from but others may differ.

I 

That is fair, although only a few were bad eggs….and some only became bad eggs after the Jan window closed because of the re-contracting situation / debacle..

[Waconda]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That is fair, although only a few were bad eggs….and some only became bad eggs after the Jan window closed because of the re-contracting situation / debacle..

Agreed.

[ExiledAjax]

4 hours ago, JonDolman said:

It would be almost impossible to not improve on last season though, wouldn't it?

This is true. This is also why I'm not going to defend Pearson until the bitter end. He wasn't my first choice upon appointment, and I suspect there are better managers out there as well. 

However, @Marina's Rolls Royce was looking for an indication of improvement, and the numbers show this is happening, even if their eyes cannot see it. 

It needs to keep happening, and it needs to happen evenly across the team and squad. Attack has improved, but defensively we are much the same. We still allow far too many shots on our goal. We've had 1 clean sheet, and are on course to concede something like 74 goals. If we score the 50 I mentioned then that's a goal difference of -24...which is bottom 6 standard. It will likely not shake out exactly like that, but improvement is needed in the defensive third.

Defensively, yesterday was a vast improvement. Just 8 shots allowed (typically we permit 15 or 16), and just one on target. That one was of course the very preventable shot that scored their goal. Right now yesterday is an anomaly, but if repeated over the next 28 matches, we should see goals conceded come down further. 

Of course these are just the numbers that measure output. They are the symptoms that we can see. The actual causes lie deeper and are things like passing patterns, movement speeds and directions, positioning etc. These are beyond my statistical analysis, however, if the output is improving then one fair conclusion is that the underlying stuff is as well.

Edited November 21, 2021 by ExiledAjax

[Merrick's Marvels]

5 hours ago, JonDolman said:

Pearson has a much better squad available to him than Holden had for much of the season

"A much better squad"???

I'd take a different view.

Defence

Holden had Mariappa and Sessegnon

Pearson has Atkinson and Tanner

Midfield

Holden had Nagy, Paterson, Lansbury, Rowe

Pearson has James and King

Forwards

Holden had Diedhiou

Pearson hasn't been given a replacement.

Holden also had the safety net of a large squad to pick from. Pearson is running with a smaller one, one that is regularly diminished further by the usual sick notes. His decision to do that, of course, and maybe one dictated by circumstances to an extent. Nevertheless it means he has virtually no safety net against injuries, rather the stop - he's being asked to perform a high wire act i.e. get results with precious little margin for error. 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Merrick's Marvels

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

@ExiledAjax

Very good post. You are right to mention that I judge what I see . I tend to look at the overall numbers ( i.e. 7 in 33) than the underlying ones to assess my personal perception of progress or lack of it.  I think part of my issue is the fact I go to most home games and I've just been deeply disappointed in virtually every match I've been to since the stadium re-opened after lock down.

Even after the euphoria I felt at the end of the Barnsley game and after I had calmed down with no voice left- I just figured we were very very fortunate to come away with a win. The Coventry match ( I wasn't there fortunately) just pretty much finished off what little faith I had in the current coaching staff. If results and performances change then no doubt my opinion will too.

[Davefevs]

17 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Pearson also has Baker. Holden didn't have him for one game.

Yep could probably do with Diedhiou. But other than that Id much rather have the squad available to us this season rather than when we had all those injuries last season. 

And Diedhiou had by far his worst season so not like I would want that version here now.

But that’s not comparing fairly…that was the point I was attempting to make.  Nige has had injuries to contend with too.  Versus Coventry he had Baker, Atkinson, King, James, Williams, Semenyo out….all match day 18 picks, probably playing a good chunk of minutes too.

All I’m saying is that if you take BOTH squads with the injured players missing it’s definitely not black and white.

[ExiledAjax]

32 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

@ExiledAjax

Very good post. You are right to mention that I judge what I see . I tend to look at the overall numbers ( i.e. 7 in 33) than the underlying ones to assess my personal perception of progress or lack of it.  I think part of my issue is the fact I go to most home games and I've just been deeply disappointed in virtually every match I've been to since the stadium re-opened after lock down.

Even after the euphoria I felt at the end of the Barnsley game and after I had calmed down with no voice left- I just figured we were very very fortunate to come away with a win. The Coventry match ( I wasn't there fortunately) just pretty much finished off what little faith I had in the current coaching staff. If results and performances change then no doubt my opinion will too.

And likewise this is a very good post. As I have said before, I try and judge us using a balance between what I watch/feel during a game, what the end result is, and what the stats say. 

Analysing Bristol City over the last 33 games, and going solely by results, sight, and emotion, especially if predominately filtered through the lens of home form, will fairly and naturally lead one to the conclusion you have arrived at.

My post was an attempt to introduce that third limb, one which in this case tells us to be critical of what we perceive and feel. Thanks for taking it on board with good grace. 

Hopefully my post, and the stats, can give you some warm comfort in these cold winter games ahead. Perhaps they can provide some small glimmer of light at the end of this particular tunnel.

Believe me I share your frustrations. I don't attend as many matches as you do, but I was sat in the South Stand for the Forest game. Never have I left AG feeling so bereft.

[Merrick's Marvels]

1 hour ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

 

I've just been deeply disappointed in virtually every match I've been to since the stadium re-opened after lock down.

Even after the euphoria I felt at the end of the Barnsley game and after I had calmed down with no voice left- I just figured we were very very fortunate to come away with a win. 

Can't disagree with that. 

[Rocking Red Cyril]

13 hours ago, bcfc ry said:

Mid week BCFC 0-3 Stoke back to the usual shite after a glimmer of hope. Don’t be fooled by a 1-1 draw after the international break 

Yrs that's my feelings for Wednesday too. But I dare to hope the improvements will continue instead 

[Kid in the Riot]

20 hours ago, VT05763 said:

Organised, good team shape, playing through the lines (attempting to at least), COD out wide and stretching play, lots of tackles and energy from all.

There actually looked like there was a plan.

Massive improvement for me.

All the more impressive given the changing room is "split", eh? 

Or maybe you were chatting bollox.  

[Kid in the Riot]

4 hours ago, JonDolman said:

Pearson also has Baker. Holden didn't have him for one game.

Yep could probably do with Diedhiou. But other than that Id much rather have the squad available to us this season rather than when we had all those injuries last season. 

And Diedhiou had by far his worst season so not like I would want that version here now.

Doesn't Pearson deserve some credit for achieving better squad availability thus far, by appointing Rennie, a guy who is one of the best in his field? 

[GrahamC]

 

"A much better squad"???

I'd take a different view.

Defence

Holden had Mariappa and Sessegnon

Pearson has Atkinson and Tanner

Midfield

Holden had Nagy, Paterson, Lansbury, Rowe

Pearson has James and King

Forwards

Holden had Diedhiou

Pearson hasn't been given a replacement.

Holden also had the safety net of a large squad to pick from. Pearson is running with a smaller one, one that is regularly diminished further by the usual sick notes. His decision to do that, of course, and maybe one dictated by circumstances to an extent. Nevertheless it means he has virtually no safety net against injuries, rather the stop - he's being asked to perform a high wire act i.e. get results with precious little margin for error. 

Mawson too & before anyone says he got injured, with his track record that was no surprise but he was a significant factor in Holden’s only decent run (September).

[Southport Red]

 

In your hurry to join the band wagon of "how very dare you criticise Pearson" you tripped over yourself.

In an answer to Davefevs, I said money was the reason NP had been given latitude- i.e. to change him would cost SL another small fortune which he clearly doesnt want to spend on anything atm- he's looking for investment not expenditure.

I apologise for misunderstanding your post. However, if I may, try to keep things friendly huh?  

[Red-Robbo]

 

First half was great. Think I am right in saying Blackburn didn't have a shot?

2nd half was more frustration for me, but was good to see us actually make a couple of chances near the end.

Signs of improvement and that was with plenty of youth on the pitch!

 

The main improvement for me was I didn't spend the last 15 minutes terrified. We stopped dropping too deep after Wells came on - you could see a visible lift in the side after he had his very good chance on goal. 

Some of this I think was Blackburn happy to settle for an away point, but there was definitely more intent shown by us.

[GrahamC]

 

 

The main improvement for me was I didn't spend the last 15 minutes terrified. We stopped dropping too deep after Wells came on - you could see a visible lift in the side after he had his very good chance on goal. 

Some of this I think was Blackburn happy to settle for an away point, but there was definitely more intent shown by us.

Absolutely, the only time I was concerned was after Bakinson lost out in the air in their box (how can that happen so often when he’s 6ft 3?) & they broke quickly, but otherwise it was an unusually calm last quarter of an hour.

[Alessandro]

 

Wells was top scorer last season

@JonDolmanjust a quick Q re Holden and players available….subjectively, do you think Pearson has had a better squad to pick from than Holden, as he’s had injuries too?  Without diving back through games, he played Towler a couple of times.  Because he had a bigger squad to start from, the injuries didn’t help, but they didn’t hamper him as much.  Yes he had key players out, but Nige has too.  Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t “Dean had it easy” question, because he didn’t, but I think he was lucky in some respects to have a big squad to start with, able to loan out Palmer, even thinking the same with Massengo.

Sorry you're right, Wells 11 in all comps and Fam 10 in all comps.