Not looking forward to Saturday

[Davefevs]

Just now, GrahamC said:

Agree it will be tough & Rooney has done a decent job of getting a competitive side on the pitch from the many out of contract players that trained with them pre season but the lack of perspective on here at times is baffling.

I genuinely can’t see Barnsley or Peterborough overtaking us & have seen far worse sides (& football) than the current one but feel like I enter a parallel universe on here sometimes.

….and yet Pearson is the spawn of Satan () for what he’s done.

I take a look at Derby’s squad and think people give them too much sympathy.  Is it a worse squad than ours?  You could argue it’s better, more players in the prime age group (25-30), youngsters further into their development curve than ours (Knight, Sibley, Bird, Buchanan).  It highlights how weak our “squad” has become.

[ExiledAjax]

Baker, Williams, James and King all still out (the latter two "joined in team warm-ups this week" but won't be in the 18 tomorrow). 4 senior players, 3 of whom would be in the starting XI every week when fit, plus King who I thought was pretty good in the early season and would certainly be in the 18 every week. Going to be a tough game tomorrow.

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

more players in the prime age group (25-30)

I said in pre-season I was concerned over the very small number of players we have in this age bracket. It's poor of us to have planned a squad that would so clearly be defective in this area. Nagy and Fam leaving in the summer hurt us here, although obviously both had reasons for leaving beyond just "City want them out". It's more that we didn't/couldn't replace them with players of the same age/experience. Both are doing ok at their new clubs. Fam has his standard 1 in 3 goals per game (4 in 12), and Nagy has played in 12 of the 14 Serie B games he's been eligible for. I'm not saying we should not have let them go, but it's the lack of replacements that is disappointing.

Is Derby's squad better than ours? Looking at the ages on transfermarkt, it's actually pretty similar.

They have 7 players over 30, 4 of whom are 35 or over. We have 4, all below 35.

In the 25 - 30 bracket they have 6, and we have 8, and for both clubs two of these are goalkeepers, so about equal in terms of outfield potential, and you could even argue we actually edge it.

Then we have 12 under 25, and they have 12. They've got 6 20 year olds and two teenagers, we have one 20 year old, two teenagers, and 4 23 year olds.

So really, I kind of contest your claim that they have more players in that prime age range. I think both clubs are deficient there, and both have more players than is ideal in the early 20's and 30's 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

youngsters further into their development curve than ours (Knight, Sibley, Bird, Buchanan).

I don't know enough here really, but from a quick check on transfermarkt I can see that all four  of these named lads have a substantial number of Championship minutes over the past three seasons. Knight and Bird in particular have racked up 6,000 and 5,000 respectively, which for guys who are 20 and 21, is a lot, and it's 30 - 40% more than players of similar ages that we have such as HNM (4,000 mins) and Semenyo (3,000 mins). You have to look at our 23/24 year olds like Dasilva, Bakinson and Williams to find players with similar numbers.

So I guess here they do have an advantage, although their young players are generally a couple of years younger than ours, they tend to actually have more league minutes under their belts.

It's an intriguing match up tomorrow, two reasonably similar squads, drawn along similar lines IMO. I think that on our day and with a fair wind behind us, we can get the win, but it's not going to be comfortable.

 

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Baker, Williams, James and King all still out (the latter two "joined in team warm-ups this week" but won't be in the 18 tomorrow). 4 senior players, 3 of whom would be in the starting XI every week when fit, plus King who I thought was pretty good in the early season and would certainly be in the 18 every week. Going to be a tough game tomorrow.

I said in pre-season I was concerned over the very small number of players we have in this age bracket. It's poor of us to have planned a squad that would so clearly be defective in this area. Nagy and Fam leaving in the summer hurt us here, although obviously both had reasons for leaving beyond just "City want them out". It's more that we didn't/couldn't replace them with players of the same age/experience. Both are doing ok at their new clubs. Fam has his standard 1 in 3 goals per game (4 in 12), and Nagy has played in 12 of the 14 Serie B games he's been eligible for. I'm not saying we should not have let them go, but it's the lack of replacements that is disappointing.

Is Derby's squad better than ours? Looking at the ages on transfermarkt, it's actually pretty similar.

They have 7 players over 30, 4 of whom are 35 or over. We have 4, all below 35.

In the 25 - 30 bracket they have 6, and we have 8, and for both clubs two of these are goalkeepers, so about equal in terms of outfield potential, and you could even argue we actually edge it.

Then we have 12 under 25, and they have 12. They've got 6 20 year olds and two teenagers, we have one 20 year old, two teenagers, and 4 23 year olds.

So really, I kind of contest your claim that they have more players in that prime age range. I think both clubs are deficient there, and both have more players than is ideal in the early 20's and 30's 

I don't know enough here really, but from a quick check on transfermarkt I can see that all four  of these named lads have a substantial number of Championship minutes over the past three seasons. Knight and Bird in particular have racked up 6,000 and 5,000 respectively, which for guys who are 20 and 21, is a lot, and it's 30 - 40% more than players of similar ages that we have such as HNM (4,000 mins) and Semenyo (3,000 mins). You have to look at our 23/24 year olds like Dasilva, Bakinson and Williams to find players with similar numbers.

So I guess here they do have an advantage, although their young players are generally a couple of years younger than ours, they tend to actually have more league minutes under their belts.

It's an intriguing match up tomorrow, two reasonably similar squads, drawn along similar lines IMO. I think that on our day and with a fair wind behind us, we can get the win, but it's not going to be comfortable.

 

Yeah, I sorted the Derby squad on matches started to kinda show that their starting eleven is usually better balanced across the experience range than ours.  If Palmer, Williams, O’Dowda started every games our age “profile” this season would’ve looked different.

As above, not very scientific from me, but definitely not a squad where we should feel sorry for them, or think they are doing amazingly well with the resources.

I quickly knocked this up.

 

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

If Palmer, Williams, O’Dowda started every games our age “profile” this season would’ve looked different.

Sure, and each has their reasons for not starting every game. No idea what Derby's injury situation has been over the season - transfermarkt says they have a single injury atm, Bielik with a torn knee

6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

As above, not very scientific from me, but definitely not a squad where we should feel sorry for them, or think they are doing amazingly well with the resources.

God no, no way do I feel sorry for them. Like us the Club/ownership have got them into this situation where they have an unbalanced squad and lack the resources - or more accurately the leeway to spend the resources needed - to correct it. They of course differ from us as they are under transfer restrictions, an agreed EFL Budget, and have the relegation-shaped sword of Damocles hanging above them - but again, that's all Derby County/Mel Morris' fault and so they can go and swivel on that very same sword once it inevitably falls.

Dear god I hope we win tomorrow.

[mozo]

8 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Escaping? 

They are currently 19 points adrift of 4th bottom having gained 22 points from 20 games.

If they continue with their current form they will end up with 51 points, 21 of which are already deducted.

Absolutely ******* delusional, they will need to get around 70 points to stay up, so need 49 more from 26 games. That’s top 3 form, they have only won 4 games all season.

The big question though is...if we beat Derby, are we certain to not finish bottom?! It's 50/50, no?