Only one place left.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, pongo88 said:

Yes - this season we’re helped by Derby and Reading’s points deductions. Without them things would look a lot worse. There’s got to be an improvement next season or it’s going to be a bit dodgy 

Without points deductions we’d be 5 points clear of Cardiff in 22nd and 4 points ahead of Hull in 21st.  Barnsley and Peterborough below them. So still a fair bit of light. 

[pongo88]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Without points deductions we’d be 5 points clear of Cardiff in 22nd and 4 points ahead of Hull in 21st.  Barnsley and Peterborough below them. So still a fair bit of light. 

It depends if you’re a glass half full or half empty person. Sometimes, when watching City, I feel as though I don’t even have a glass. Five points would be far to close to feel comfortable. City lose one match and both Hull and Cardiff win on the same day and it’s only a two point gap to 22nd. Then it’s squeaking bum time 

[marmite]

I think things could change for us with a little luck. Just a goal going in off Martins backside, or Wells shoulder, or even  Semenyo closing down their keeper, could suddenly lift the spirits of that player. Surely sometime this season someone, other than Weimann,  will score 2 in a game.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

Peterborough have a terrible away record- think they'll do alright at home but won't do much on the road so that likely would be the 3rd relegation spot.

[GrahamC]

4 hours ago, pongo88 said:

It depends if you’re a glass half full or half empty person. Sometimes, when watching City, I feel as though I don’t even have a glass. Five points would be far to close to feel comfortable. City lose one match and both Hull and Cardiff win on the same day and it’s only a two point gap to 22nd. Then it’s squeaking bum time 

No it isn’t.

Peterborough are 22nd, they are 8 points adrift of us with a far worse goal difference.

For us to be 2 points from 22nd they need to pick up 6 more points than us, which seeing as they have lost every away game bar one & have to play half of them away, seems unlikely.

Edited December 30, 2021 by GrahamC

[pongo88]

7 hours ago, pongo88 said:

Yes - this season we’re helped by Derby and Reading’s points deductions. Without them things would look a lot worse. There’s got to be an improvement next season or it’s going to be a bit dodgy 

 

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just on the Reading and Derby points deductions. Without the deductions they'd be 19th and 18th respectively, so pushing us 2 places lower to 20th. We'd still be 5 points clear of Cardiff in 21st. (Cardiff would actually be in 22nd position)

Derby would be a point above us on 28, and Reading would have 27 like us but be ahead on goal difference. Admittedly they both have a game in hand on us.

The deductions help us, but they don't  change things quite as drastically as you might assume.

 

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Without points deductions we’d be 5 points clear of Cardiff in 22nd and 4 points ahead of Hull in 21st.  Barnsley and Peterborough below them. So still a fair bit of light. 

 

4 hours ago, pongo88 said:

It depends if you’re a glass half full or half empty person. Sometimes, when watching City, I feel as though I don’t even have a glass. Five points would be far to close to feel comfortable. City lose one match and both Hull and Cardiff win on the same day and it’s only a two point gap to 22nd. Then it’s squeaking bum time 

 

18 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

No it isn’t.

Peterborough are 22nd, they are 8 points adrift of us with a far worse goal difference.

For us to be 2 points from 22nd they need to pick up 6 more points than us, which seeing as they have lost every away game bar one & have to play half of them away, seems unlikely.

Oh yes it is (sorry for the panto mode). Peterborough are irrelevant.  

My comments were based on the situation if Reading and Derby didn’t have their points deductions ( see posts above)?  If both clubs hadn’t received their points deductions, Cardiff would be in 22nd position on 22 points  - 5 less than City. The point I made to @Davefevs was  5 points is not very good because City could lose and both Cardiff and Hull win on the same day reducing to gap to Cardiff to 2 points. 

[ExiledAjax]

36 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

 

 

 

 

Oh yes it is (sorry for the panto mode). Peterborough are irrelevant.  

My comments were based on the situation if Reading and Derby didn’t have their points deductions ( see posts above)?  If both clubs hadn’t received their points deductions, Cardiff would be in 22nd position on 22 points  - 5 less than City. The point I made to @Davefevs was  5 points is not very good because City could lose and both Cardiff and Hull win on the same day reducing to gap to Cardiff to 2 points. 

Yeh I forgot about Hull. Surely I'm not the first to commit that error.

[Red Billy]

Our form in the last six games puts us at 14 in form table and as stated in an earlier post we are looking better since NP came back from Covid.  If we can maintain our current form of picking up a couple of wins a couple of draws with the odd defeat here and there we will be ok.  I’ve seen enough overall to suggest we will stay up and feel that as we continue we will get more momentum. I’m not too fazed if we don’t buy anyone in January as believe we will be ok although if we could trade a couple in then great. If KP, JD and NW all start performing like we all know they are capable that would be like getting three good signings. 

[bcfc01]

20 minutes ago, Red Billy said:

Our form in the last six games puts us at 14 in form table and as stated in an earlier post we are looking better since NP came back from Covid.  If we can maintain our current form of picking up a couple of wins a couple of draws with the odd defeat here and there we will be ok.  I’ve seen enough overall to suggest we will stay up and feel that as we continue we will get more momentum. I’m not too fazed if we don’t buy anyone in January as believe we will be ok although if we could trade a couple in then great. If KP, JD and NW all start performing like we all know they are capable that would be like getting three good signings. 

Agreed, there are some teams around us who are in worse form than us, notably Barnsley and Peterborough.

I'll go one step further than the OP, put my chopper on the block, and say the bottom three will be as it is now, but Derby will probably make a fist of it and end up 22nd, they're in relatively decent form at the moment (along with Cardiff and Hull).

We are on course for a modest 54 points, but we could get a bit less than that and still be ok, although I think we'll get at least 54 points.

Absolutely no reason to assume that Barnsley will find 40 points or Peterborough will find 35 points in the second half of the season given they've only got 14 & 19 respectively at this time. Derby are averaging 1.22 points per game which puts them on target for 38 points, they could get a few more - but not enough.

Current form tables;

https://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2