30 points from 25 games.

[Lanterne Rouge]

I don`t for one minute think we`re going down this year so can any of you stattos out there say whether any side has ever been relegated from the Championship having that number of points at that stage of the season?

My guess would be no.

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

3 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

I don`t for one minute think we`re going down this year so can any of you stattos out there say whether any side has ever been relegated from the Championship having that number of points at that stage of the season?

My guess would be no.

Hull a couple of seasons back.

Just had a look, they were on 36 points after 25 games.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan

[Lanterne Rouge]

1 minute ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

Hull a couple of seasons back.

Thanks. That was the season they sold Bowen & Grosicki in January and didn`t replace them wasn`t it? They dropped like a stone as a result.

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

3 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Thanks. That was the season they sold Bowen & Grosicki in January and didn`t replace them wasn`t it? They dropped like a stone as a result.

They were 12th after 25 games having just beaten QPR.

They only picked up a further 9 points that season, 3 of those points in the very next game.

Yes, that was the season they sold Bowen and Grosicki.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan

[samo II]

12 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

They were 12th after 25 games having just beaten QPR.

They only picked up a further 9 points that season, 3 of those points in the very next game.

Yes, that was the season they sold Bowen and Grosicki.

Only six points in 20 games is almost so incredible looks like an achievement.

That’s a minimum of 14 losses over those games; hard to argue anyone deserves not to go down with form like that.

[Lanterne Rouge]

Hull seem to be very much an outlier with obvious reasons for their implosion then. I doubt there are many others though.

[Alex_BCFC]

We won’t go down from here. Probably need about 12 points for safety. 

[Slippin cider]

Anything is possible unfortunately 

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

10 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said:

We won’t go down from here. Probably need about 12 points for safety. 

Coincidentally the same number of points we picked up from our final 20 games last season.

Might be considerably more nerve racking if we repeat that this season.

[pillred]

13 minutes ago, samo II said:

Only six points in 20 games is almost so incredible looks like an achievement.

That’s a minimum of 14 losses over those games; hard to argue anyone deserves not to go down with form like that.

Weren't the gas on course for promotion once with 12 games to go and never even made the playoffs losing almost every game?

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

Just now, pillred said:

Weren't the gas on course for promotion once with 12 games to go and never even made the playoffs losing almost every game?

Yes.

They did lose ‘almost’ every game.

...let’s just leave it at that though 

[77 punk]

barnsley have won two games all season how many are they going to win ? peterborough have won five and only one away. derbys form is mid table ,they would be above us.you would think that derby would sell some players this month

Edited January 3, 2022 by 77 punk
spell

[Waconda]

Didn't Posh go down with over 50 points once ?

[DaveF]

3 minutes ago, VT05763 said:

Didn't Posh go down with over 50 points once ?

54, the highest ever.

47 is the average for survival, we should be fine.

[77 punk]

yes 54 points which is incredible 

[Waconda]

Just now, DaveF said:

54, the highest ever.

47 is the average for survival, we should be fine.

If we continue as we are then 1.5 points per game average is very doable.

[Merrick's Marvels]

10 minutes ago, 77 punk said:

barnsley have won two games all season how many are they going to win ? peterborough have won five and only one away. derbys form is mid table ,they would be above us.you would think that derby would sell some players this month

Cheering for Derby today though. Would love tinpot Reading to get relegated too. 

[LondonBristolian]

There was the famous Millwall season in 1995-1996.

They were top of the table in early December with 34 points from 21 games and then got 18 points from their last 21 and dropped into the relegation zone on the last day. 

I think our form in the second half of the season will be relatively similar to the first - maybe a bit better or worse depending on injuries. I don't think we're about to go come world beaters but reckon we can keep up an average of 1.2 points a game and finish on around 55 points. 

[Davefevs]

13 minutes ago, DaveF said:

54, the highest ever.

47 is the average for survival, we should be fine.

This season likely to be lower than average too, due to Derby’s 21 and Reading’s 6 point deduction, might drag that 47 down a tad too.

1. I don’t think we are going down

2. I don’t even think we will be part of a relegation battle either.

[nickolas]

40 is the number this year imo for safety. May even be 38. All the teams down there need a huge jump in form to get past 40 i reckon, so we dont need many to get past that. 

[Ska Junkie]

44 minutes ago, 77 punk said:

barnsley have won two games all season how many are they going to win ? peterborough have won five and only one away. derbys form is mid table ,they would be above us.you would think that derby would sell some players this month

Should probably have beaten us to be fair 77P. 

[Ska Junkie]

33 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Cheering for Derby today though. Would love tinpot Reading to get relegated too. 

Some finish by Hoilett though, just as I uttered 'greedy ba5tard' as there was a man free to his right. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Ska Junkie

[77 punk]

barnsley were far better than us in the game , but they have scored 16 goals and peterborough 20 so it would take a big improvement of form to finish above us

[Merrick's Marvels]

2 minutes ago, Ska Junkie said:

Some finish by Hoilett though, just as I uttered 'greedy ba5tard' as there was a man free to his right. 

Didn't realise he was there - exactly how many expensive ex-Prem players they can't afford do they actually have??

[Ska Junkie]

Just now, Merrick's Marvels said:

Didn't realise he was there - exactly how many expensive ex-Prem players they can't afford do they actually have??

All on £8K a week max, yeah right! 

[JoeAman08]

Way too early to be comfortable. We have played 2-3 more than most below us. Depending on those games in hand we could be as low as 19th and 5 points above Peterborough. Obviously very unlikely but that is how close it could be after only 2 games and us not playing. 
 

I think Barnsley are probably doomed. Derby doing well but still a tough ask to pick up 30-35 points in 20 games for them. Peterborough I think could catch some form and make that last spot interesting. I disagree with people saying 40 or even less! I have 45 in my mind as being probably good enough. 48 almost 100% at this point. So 18 points from 21 games. Very achievable but I still feel like this team has a fragility and it could go south quickly. 
 

I think we are likely to be alright. It is just too early for me to relax is all. Our defence concerns me. We are surprisingly ok at scoring goals but not sure I trust they’ll continue enough to keep us up on their own. Fulham away, a derby at home and Luton away next 3. If we could get 3-4 points from them to pretty much end the month it would go a long way. 

[Dolman_Stand]

Season is going pretty much as most expected it to with us bumbling our way through it and not troubling either end of the table. Now the home form seems to be more normal we should pick up enough points to be comfortably safe, my hope is we sign a couple of players in January and finish strongly to give us some optimism for next season.

[Harry]

As others have alluded, the average used to be around 48-50 for survival. 
I had a look the other week and this average has dramatically reduced in the last 8-10 years, with 45 generally being the average for survival. Given Derbys reduction, we’re essentially looking historically at finishing higher than the 23rd placed team, rather than the 22nd placed team, so that average will reduce again. 
Low 40’s easily for survival this year. 
4 more wins basically. 

[22A]

Since our promotion in 2015, the highest placed relegated team has been; 

Charlton - 40, Blackburn - 51, Barnsley - 41, Rotherham - 40, Charlton (again) - 48 and Wycombe - 43.

[Maltshoveller]

1 hour ago, LondonBristolian said:

There was the famous Millwall season in 1995-1996.

They were top of the table in early December with 34 points from 21 games and then got 18 points from their last 21 and dropped into the relegation zone on the last day. 

I think our form in the second half of the season will be relatively similar to the first - maybe a bit better or worse depending on injuries. I don't think we're about to go come world beaters but reckon we can keep up an average of 1.2 points a game and finish on around 55 points. 

Always thought they were top at xmas  and went down but as you say it was early Dec

I will keep telling everyone they were top at xmas and still went down as it sounds better!!!

Give it a few more years and the story will be top at Easter