The Pearson effect - is it happening?

[steviestevieneville]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Same v Forest, Scott gets brought down, no pen given…should’ve been 2-0.

Even though NP said there no negative affect , the last minute equaliser by Blackpool could possibly have set us back. Easy I know to go back over games , every club can do it. We could quite easily have 5-6 more points with the late goals we’ve conceded . 

[ontariored]

Bit like watching paint dry........

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, Simon bristol said:

Yes, me too,, its not chris martins fault hes been flogged for 5 months, but having semenyo back suddenly gives us energy going forwards that can almost match weimanns, and must be a nightmare to play against! Shame about joe williams, and the money pissed up the wall by previous regimes, but relying on youth players has enabled us to stumble across some energy and passion… now if we could just get some defensive organisation going….

 

Which is why I’d not bother with a striker this window, keeping them out is more important at this point in the season.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Interesting. I have some different figures though. From this it looks like you are counting the West Brom game on 23 October as the final game "with Simpson and Downing". I think that's correct. The OS press release for Dowing leaving is 27 October https://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/downing-leaves-city/ meaning that Barnsley at home on 30 October was the first game for which neither Simpson nor Downing were on our staff.

I disagree with your goals against figures though. I have us conceding 20 in the first 14 games, and 19 in the subsequent 11. That's 39 in total, which is what we have conceded...you have us conceding only 37 overall? Goals for is 15 in each set as you say.

It doesn't really affect the conclusion though. We've improved, and actually the biggest improvements are in reducing the effectiveness of our opponents.  In the last 11 games goals against, shots against, shots on target against, and xG against are all about 15-20% better than in the first 14. In contrast shots taken and goals for are up.

All moving in the right direction.

Realised I said goals against was better. Its not. 19 in 11 is a fair bit worse than 20 in 14...but the rest is better.

[Simon bristol]

Just now, Davefevs said:

Which is why I’d not bother with a striker this window, keeping them out is more important at this point in the season.

Yep, we all wish him well, but some idea of what bakers long term prospects would be ideal,,, though im sure the club knows more than we do.

[Ian M]

I feel like a watershed moment happened around the time of Pearson's return from his recent illness. My memory is of (hitherto bit-part player) COD coming out to the press in effusive fashion, citing that the players needed to do more and Pearson seeming more determined to freeze out high-earners who had delivered little, more than ever. What's our record from that point? Or is that the same moment?

 

[ExiledAjax]

48 minutes ago, cityexile said:

One of the interesting things from that is we are conceding more (1.7 v 1.4), although the xG against has dropped (1.5v 1.8).

Kind of tallies with the gut feel many had from the end of last season that we were getting ‘lucky’ results, with the other team missing a fair number of chances, supported by some very good saves. Currently it seems to have turned around with the other sides scoring more of their good chances, with it being much rare that I recall they miss a hat full.

Not sure what it means, but results at the moment are less dependent on the other side forgetting their shooting boots. 

What it means to me is that our defence doesn't need to drastically change in order to concede fewer goals. Essentially yes, we've conceded a few more than you might expect. Keep doing the same and the number conceded should regress near to the 1.5 per game figure that xG shows.

1.5 goals per game would still be pretty poor (it would be 17 goals conceded in 11 games not 19) so let's not get carried away. 

We're slowly, slowly improving. I have the numbers v Holden's final ten games as well (roughly 1 year ago). It's so different. Our average xG for has nearly doubled.

[RedEyez]

3 hours ago, steveybadger said:

There’s definitely an improvement in how dangerous we look at home now, since we got the monkey off the back. That to my mind is also down to Semenyo playing up front - he still lacks composure but he pulls defenders out of place with his pace. Martin has attributes but he is easier to defend against I think.

As for Pearson I think he’s probably realistically doing as well as he can, given the squad he has and our financial situation. I certainly think progress has been made since last season, especially given the younger players developing with more game time. He still doesn’t know his first choice side (or formation) but he’s becoming clearer on who he doesn’t want, which is arguably half the battle. I suspect we’ll finish where most thought we would, bottom third (but safe), and that’s ok for now.

I think he knows his strongest 11. It’s just getting them all fit at the same time to play together.

[Bar BS3]

5 hours ago, mightyreds89 said:

There was a post yesterday that for me thinking about Nige & his influence for me it feels like there are signs it’s on the up he seems more relaxed and confident in interviews, the players over the last 5/6 weeks seem to have improved desire, commitment and understand the expectation bar Sheff Utd away. I do feel like there are some green shoots of small steps forward. 

I then started to think why might this be? Initially I thought maybe Nige is and hopefully feeling better following his illness he has more energy and passion for the role which led me into thinking what else has changed… the coaching staff there are fewer with Downing & Simpson now gone maybe he’s starting to become his own man, more involved in the coaching?! He has to be surely? Less voices for the players to hear one constant and steady view. He’s also now fully in control of managing upwards. I thought I’d look at the stats with and without the now departed coaches and as expected some positive signs especially when you consider it’s early days without them the main highlights are below, 

With Simpson & Downing,

P 14 W4 D4 L6 - points 16 ave Pts per game = 1.14 

Win rate 28% 

Goals for 15 average goals for per game 1.07.

Goals against 22 ave per game 1.57 

 

Without Simpson & Downing 

P11 W4 D2 L5 points 14 ave pts per game 1.27

win rate 38%

Goals for 15 ave per game = 1.36 

Goals against 15 ave per game = 1.54 

Overall,

We’ve found a way of increasing our ave pts per game, our average goals scored and slightly improved our ave goals against so certainly and improved balance of not conceding any more than before but scoring and creating more. In essence we’ve turned what may have been a few draws previously into wins since their departure and draw on average less. Over a season that’s an extra 12 -14 points. 

Whilst in recent games we’ve also had improved possession stats (from memory) I haven’t gone through this game by game but have noticed post game that shots and possession are improved certainly feels like progress. Hopefully this momentum continues over as perusing of games and we can secure a position of 12th-14th by end of the season which for me would be a decent effort give the circumstances. 

Haven't our last 11 games been against teams generally placed lower (certainly not including the top teams) than some of those in the previous 14 games...? 

I'm certainly not cracking open any bubbly in celebration at the stats that NP has to show for any period of his tenure..! 

 

[Fuber]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Which is why I’d not bother with a striker this window, keeping them out is more important at this point in the season.

With the (speculated) scenario ingoing with Bakes, possible Long Covid with Atkinson, and Towler needing more league experience before the step up to first team duty (Imo).

Assuming (big if), we get rid of Palmer, loan out JD, possibly offload Moore...

Should we expect a CB in on loan, perhaps? Or RB, shifting Vyner as necessary?

All hearsay obviously. My point being Fevs, based on your current feelings, what position if any would be your immediate concern?

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Haven't our last 11 games been against teams generally placed lower (certainly not including the top teams) than some of those in the previous 14 games...? 

I'm certainly not cracking open any bubbly in celebration at the stats that NP has to show for any period of his tenure..! 

Last 11:

opposition position in brackets.

4 from top 8

4 from middle 8

3 from bottom 8

Individual averages out at at 12th/13th.

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, Fuber said:

With the (speculated) scenario ingoing with Bakes, possible Long Covid with Atkinson, and Towler needing more league experience before the step up to first team duty (Imo).

Assuming (big if), we get rid of Palmer, loan out JD, possibly offload Moore...

Should we expect a CB in on loan, perhaps? Or RB, shifting Vyner as necessary?

All hearsay obviously. My point being Fevs, based on your current feelings, what position if any would be your immediate concern?

We have gaps across defence whether we play a back 4 or back 5, so I’d target that…assumes Cundy not gonna make an impact, Dasilva off.  Probably a CB if truth be told.

[PHILINFRANCE]

1 hour ago, steviestevieneville said:

Even though NP said there no negative affect , the last minute equaliser by Blackpool could possibly have set us back. Easy I know to go back over games , every club can do it. We could quite easily have 5-6 more points with the late goals we’ve conceded . 

5 or 6?!

And the rest.

I reckon it’s in double figures, plus the Swansea match!

[Garland-sweden]

Slowly we are getting better. COD Playing better, James and Semenyo in the team makes us also better. We had lots of injured players now it looks more hopeful. NP have been ill, the sun is rising again. Have faith in NP and thinks he knows what he is doing. For me this season was, is, avoid relegation battle. Last two games shows that we can play football and we are in progress. Still misstakes in defence, the confidence in that area is not there yet. If we can get a solid defence we will be hard to beat. Optimistic for the second half of the season.

[RedM]

11 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

Have you considered the possible fact that Atkinson had a dose of Covid and is taking time to recover? I don't have any inside info but just think that a very promising and relatively inexperienced centre back has not lost it completely in a few weeks. Even if it's just a loss of confidence because of the pressure that other teams have hit us with, surely it's temporary?

I think it must be something like that, or even something in this personal life eg difficulty settling as he doesn’t strike me as lacking in confidence particularly.

For example, both home and away he is often the first player to applaud fans after a game, even those shocking displays from the team. He could so easily slink away like some of his team mates but he always fronts up and acknowledges the crowd. 

His time will come. Baker and Kalas was meant to be our centre back pairing but unfortunately this hasn’t happened too many times and Atkinson has been perhaps thrown in before Championship ready.

[steviestevieneville]

6 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

5 or 6?!

And the rest.

I reckon it’s in double figures, plus the Swansea match!

Don’t count Swansea game & you can’t do it for all games. I’m looking at the late goals. Blackpool 2 points dropped , Luton , 2 forest 3 , QPR 1 . That’s a realistic 8 points imo 

[2015]

I don't think fans quite understood the mess the club was left in by the time NP took over, and when you see the accounts it certainly shows that.

Our Home performances have massively improved since beating Barnsley, infact we have played better at home this season than we have since 17/18 to be honest. We've had some enjoyable wins (Cardiff, QPR, Reading, Millwall). Where we are in the table is probably about right for the squad we have and I recently am seeing performances improve - we look quicker, play with intent and look much more dangerous than we have done for quite a while at AG.

Ok Pearson's record wasn't the best up until October and it has taken a while for him to get some sort of consistent performances out of the side, but we really were in such a downward spiral last season it was going to always take a while. The last 3 months of Holden's reign was absolutely woeful, could barely get a shot on target at AG most games, the players had lost confidence completely and the injury list was shambolic.

We will benefit massively from Pearson's time here as an experienced Manager and we are lucky when looking at our accounts that he is in charge with Richard Gould as CEO who also has bags of experience. We're in safe hands, no one should be expecting playoff form or a playoff push too soon, but I certainly can see signs of recovery from City.

[Northern Red]

9 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

Haven't our last 11 games been against teams generally placed lower (certainly not including the top teams) than some of those in the previous 14 games...? 

I'm certainly not cracking open any bubbly in celebration at the stats that NP has to show for any period of his tenure..! 

 

And who is doing that? People can see positive signs, that's all anyone is saying.

[Olé]

16 hours ago, mightyreds89 said:

bar Sheff Utd away. I do feel like there are some green shoots of small steps forward

I don't disagree with the spirit of your post, and I hope you're right - I expected us to struggle and like @Alessandro I will be happy to survive, but I'm probably a bit closer to @JoeAman08on this, I am not even starting to get carried away yet - in being resigned to a struggle, I just wanted to see a positive impact on performances and that really hasn't happened at all until the two over New Year.

Maybe it's schlepping across the country for this stuff, but I don't accept "bar Sheff Utd away" as a way of measuring improvement - which is one of the most feeble & disorganised City performances I've witnessed in my lifetime, and we turned up for the next away fixture (Hull) against a poor side and were just as bad for at least 45, which makes me more sceptical about "recent improvements".

I also thought Huddersfield outplayed us too in the following game, as a performance the scoreline in that fixture flattered us. Yes the QPR and Millwall games have showed a LOT more organisation and I'm excited about that - as others have said, a fully fit Semenyo really helps - but it's literally two games in a week where I've seen anything resembling green shoots, we've been here before under NP.

[GrahamC]

I think there are some on here & elsewhere who are not going to give Pearson any credit no matter what.

For me our “success” (which if you recall last year, is all about being outside the bottom six) is improving the abysmal home form.

Since we finally got that home win against Barnsley (& yes, I know it was undeserved, but we should have won several games before, so who cares?) we have played 7 at home, won 4 of them & drawn 1. 
The draw was against Blackburn (2nd) who won the other 7 games around it & the wins included Stoke & Derby, who if it wasn’t for the points deduction, would be above us.

Looks like progress to me, though probably not to Ian Gay..

[Davefevs]

@GrahamCits progress, albeit slow progress.  It’s what I expected.

But I also think Nige’s “tactics” (term for multiple things) has been dependent on who has been available.  And selection has meant inconsistency, so we might not reach the heights of the last 2 performances consistently for the rest of the season, but on the flip, let’s hope we don’t plumb the depths of Sheff Utd either, or at least not very often.

Despite the shocking financial results, I’m slightly less worried longer-term now that @Hxjhas shown that our FFP allowances are probably more like £5m p.a. Not £3m p.a.  That £6m difference in a 3 year cycle is quite useful.  Buys us a bit of time.

 

[2015]

1 hour ago, Olé said:

I also thought Huddersfield outplayed us too in the following game, as a performance the scoreline in that fixture flattered us. Yes the QPR and Millwall games have showed a LOT more organisation and I'm excited about that - as others have said, a fully fit Semenyo really helps - but it's literally two games in a week where I've seen anything resembling green shoots, we've been here before under NP.

I just think Huddersfield were a better side. They actually played really good football, they were too quick for us that day, I don't think we were particularly bad (we were at defending) just that we got beat by a side who are better than us currently, it wasn't through a lack of effort which was what I saw at Sheffield United.

The Blackburn game, who have now gone on to be 2nd in the table is also a game we played well in and should have won. 

[Davefevs]

21 minutes ago, 2015 said:

I just think Huddersfield were a better side. They actually played really good football, they were too quick for us that day, I don't think we were particularly bad (we were at defending) just that we got beat by a side who are better than us currently, it wasn't through a lack of effort which was what I saw at Sheffield United.

The Blackburn game, who have now gone on to be 2nd in the table is also a game we played well in and should have won. 

They are 12 months further down the line than us in terms of their project.  A good team to benchmark  ourselves against as time goes on.

[Alessandro]

2 hours ago, Olé said:

I don't disagree with the spirit of your post, and I hope you're right - I expected us to struggle and like @Alessandro I will be happy to survive, but I'm probably a bit closer to @JoeAman08on this, I am not even starting to get carried away yet - in being resigned to a struggle, I just wanted to see a positive impact on performances and that really hasn't happened at all until the two over New Year.

Maybe it's schlepping across the country for this stuff, but I don't accept "bar Sheff Utd away" as a way of measuring improvement - which is one of the most feeble & disorganised City performances I've witnessed in my lifetime, and we turned up for the next away fixture (Hull) against a poor side and were just as bad for at least 45, which makes me more sceptical about "recent improvements".

I also thought Huddersfield outplayed us too in the following game, as a performance the scoreline in that fixture flattered us. Yes the QPR and Millwall games have showed a LOT more organisation and I'm excited about that - as others have said, a fully fit Semenyo really helps - but it's literally two games in a week where I've seen anything resembling green shoots, we've been here before under NP.

I can't disagree with this post and you watch more City football live than the average City fan, so of course your opinion is rightfully effected by what you see on the pitch.

For me, i'm focussing less on that right now and more on the 'bigger' picture, the context, as I see it. (Rest of post isn't aimed at you specifically, more my thoughts)

That is, long story short, we now know the 'heights' under LJ were unsustainable, we know the wage bill was probably pushed beyond our limits and we know the squad recruitment/management over the last 3-4 years wasn't good enough for the SL/LJ/MA strategy - the result simply has slowly left us weaker on the pitch and poorer off it.

I believe we were seeing the reality of that under Holden, who had he stayed, may well have taken us down.

So, for me, Pearson has come into a near relegation threatened club and steadied the ship, whilst working with a smaller budget than the previous 2 managers and still the core of their squad, their players.

He's been afforded, what 5 signings(?), 2 of which you could argue were lower league one's for the future. So it's not 'his' team by any sense of the imagination.

Another result of all this is he's had to blood more academy players than any manager we've had in our recent history and suffer the on-pitch consequences of that (see first half vs Millwall for first example to come to mind).

All this combined means, frankly for me, how we get to safety, I don't mind, as long as we do. Pearson is doing that. He can only work with the tools he has and he was handed a pretty incomplete toolbox.

Yes we can discuss how we're in this position again, but ultimately it's not Pearson's fault we're in a bit of a reset as a club - but the way in which he is approaching the difficult task deserves credit, and patience, IMO.

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Alessandro

[Bar BS3]

14 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Last 11:

opposition position in brackets.

4 from top 8

4 from middle 8

3 from bottom 8

Individual averages out at at 12th/13th.

Yeah and the previous 14 games included 3 of the current top 4, arguably by far the harder games so far this season. In which we conceded 7 and scored 1, which unbalance the comparative stats somewhat. 

[Bar BS3]

5 hours ago, Northern Red said:

And who is doing that? People can see positive signs, that's all anyone is saying.

Some positives in the last 2 games, yes. 

I remember posting earlier in the season, after the West Brom debacle I think, let's see how the next 10 games, against largely average teams, pan out. 

The return has been very underwhelming from those (now 11 games) 

14 points from those 11 games is less that I'd been hoping for (11 points from the initial 10 game view) 

It's just very hard to look any stats from any period of NP's tenure (so far) and gain much optimism from them.

[Davefevs]

52 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Some positives in the last 2 games, yes. 

I remember posting earlier in the season, after the West Brom debacle I think, let's see how the next 10 games, against largely average teams, pan out. 

The return has been very underwhelming from those (now 11 games) 

14 points from those 11 games is less that I'd been hoping for (11 points from the initial 10 game view) 

It's just very hard to look any stats from any period of NP's tenure (so far) and gain much optimism from them.

Less than you were hoping for but perfectly acceptable amount for me….we all have different levels of expectation at this point.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Less than you were hoping for but perfectly acceptable amount for me….we all have different levels of expectation at this point.

Presumably we all "hoped" for 33 points?

Personally, given the context of the whole season, I agree that 1.27 ppg is an acceptable return over these 11 games.

W3 D2 L6 is ok. 

Over the final 21 games that same return lands us another 27 points. Gives a final total of 57, which would keep us well safe and would be 4 more than I thought we'd get in August.

I'd be content. Not happy, but content.

[Galley is our king]

18 hours ago, ontariored said:

Bit like watching paint dry........

Not been down recently then? 

[bcfc01]

2 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

Some positives in the last 2 games, yes. 

I remember posting earlier in the season, after the West Brom debacle I think, let's see how the next 10 games, against largely average teams, pan out. 

The return has been very underwhelming from those (now 11 games) 

14 points from those 11 games is less that I'd been hoping for (11 points from the initial 10 game view) 

It's just very hard to look any stats from any period of NP's tenure (so far) and gain much optimism from them.

I think the team has toughened up since that WBA game, we were a bit soft ;