Operation let's avoid Failing FFP

[dREDful]

1 hour ago, gl2 said:

As said on another thread we SHOULD be matching/competeing with most of the teams in the play offs atm even with our current squad and at least a couple more just outside.

Really there is no reason why we shouldnt be, apart from WBA there is no-one to fear up there, even they (WBA) are not unbeatable; poor team selection and management is keeping us where we are.

Whatever you do today, don't check yesterday's score. 

[daored]

10 hours ago, Supersonic Robin said:

We should be fine. There are definitely 3 worse teams than us this year, probably more.

I don't get the impression that the club are actively trying to sell Massengo or Bentley (perhaps quite the opposite in Massengo's case).

On FBC last night it was said we declined an offer from Massengo in the summer from Watford. If we were desperate for funds we would have sold.  
 

 

 

[WarksRobin]

10 minutes ago, daored said:

On FBC last night it was said we declined an offer from Massengo in the summer from Watford. If we were desperate for funds we would have sold.  
 

 

 

Depends what they offered. Maybe it was £1m plus add ons rather than our valuation. There’s no need to sell out of desperation yet

[Fuber]

12 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I like the fact that Gould is challenging the EFL and prefers à points deduction to selling the family jewels.

 

What family jewels?

I'd argue we could replace anybody we sell currently, there a huge market this summer.

12 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Maybe I'm overstating the risk- well it wouldn't be the first time. 

Think we'll be fine to 2021/22 but the trouble if it arises is likely to be to be the season. Owing to monitoring of the future as well as the past and importantly the present, what I can see as possible is EFL and club sitting down in the summer, Gould even alluded to it.

If we are on track to fail to 2023, we will be expected to fill the hole. To remain at or below £39m (adjusted for allowances and Covid costs).

Unfortunately for us and I assume a range of clubs, the Covid number that had been mooted is £5m!!

I have a few ideas on how to fill that hole though some are fairly unpalatable. The contract extensions subject to wage limits can also pose an issue.

Bentley- Sell

Kalas- Seek to extend, even by 1 year but maybe longer.

Massengo- Extend or sell.

Purpose of extension for these 2 was mentioned by @Davefevs a while back was to smooth the amortisation. Obviously they're 2 of our better players too

What of the out of contract? Simpson, Cundy, King, O'Dowda and Martin. Simpson can probably go but what about the rest? Decisions to be made.

Now for some of the more unpalatable bits. Subject to fees and possibly sell on clauses we use part of them to restructure.

Eg a bit of a windfall and perhaps we look to loan out Wells or pay him off and accelerate the Impairment hit.

Palmer. Wasn't there a link with Dean? Perhaps we trade and accept the amortisation hit- Dean we can maybe use due to fears over Baker's long term fitness or we look to flip- he would join at zero Book Value, that could be pure profit.

Some of these options are less than desirable but trying to think outside the box a bit- over to you lot.

On the other side, naming rights for AG, individual stands and so on? All suggestions welcome :laugh:.

Forgot to add, Moore- to Hearts again, permanent deal there or perhaps elsewhere owing to his good form there perhaps.

We've done some of the heavy lifting granted.

Realistically the coming summer is the big one.

We may have to suck up naming right for AG, no matter how much I/we may despise the idea.

We (for FFP) would need to sell pretty much all the high earners. To that regard, we'd basically almost be forced to sell Kalas (the only one whom I think we need to keep), and Bentley (for whom we have adequate cover). We would need to find a way to then also offload Wells, Palmer, DaSilva, with Moore (where viable) permanently going to Hearts.

Massengo would need to be sold if no agreement forthcoming on the contract negotiations.

Realistically (nor would I think) any of those expiring will be offered further deals on a cost versus performance basis. O'Dowda possibly the exception, but also on the highest wage.

That would leave a squad of;

O'Leary, Wiles-Richards.

Tanner, Vyner, (Kalas), Baker(?), Atkinson, Pring, Towler(Loan?).

James, Scott, Benarous, Williams, Bakinson.

Semenyo, Conway, Weimann, Janneh.

Would leave us in the need to conduct smart business in the summer. Would basically need one player for every position across the pitch aside from Keeper, near all where possible would need to be free, loans, or reinvestment of a portion of funds received depending on how much we were to actually receive.

On the likes, where applicable, of examples such as Kabongo Tshimanga, Festy Ebosele, Elliot Moore, Harry Darling, Josh Martin, Matt O'Riley, or players of that ilk.

Supplemented by free transfers. Yoann Barbet or Bidwell for left back as examples who will be aware all clubs are cutting cloth.

Worth noting there are also players who qualify for WP abroad with expiring contracts also, i.e. Anos Pieper, among others. 

Edited January 16, 2022 by Fuber

[daored]

18 minutes ago, WarksRobin said:

Depends what they offered. Maybe it was £1m plus add ons rather than our valuation. There’s no need to sell out of desperation yet

Was said they offered more than £6milliom in the summer. Lee Johnson talk the person we paid £4 million for him

Edited January 16, 2022 by daored

[Fuber]

8 minutes ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Sadly that squad has League 1 written all over it. 

If we did business in that way, next season would be very difficult providing we actually stay up this year. 

Smtp would work in our favour a little bit but the hit on fimances at that point may prove too much 

It's the same way in which we did business under Cotts, even under LJ we didn't spend bucket loads that first January. 

What choice do we have?

It was the players we stuck with and developed that earned us funds that Ashton then all but burned in a furnace.

Our best players the last few years, i.e. those that were sold on for the most part, were all lower league signings, academy players, or free agents, I.e. Flint, . The only exception was Webster. Even Eisa, Szmodics, and Adelakun we just broke even on and they didn't work.

There's enough free agents to provide a base, I.e. Barbet, Bidwell, for example, alongside Kalas, Atkinson, Tanner, Pring. Sign a right back and I'd consider that a marked improvement over Vyner and DaSilva.

You mention in bold as if spending bucket loads on wages and fees and signed established Championship players and EPL youngsters has worked. For the large majority it hasn't. The wages at the top tier, even for academy players as per JD and Palmer are simply unsustainable for us, we need to soak up releases and avoid amortisation costs on such risks going forward - Brownhill being the big example for us in this model.

[BCFCGav]

Maybe an unpopular opinion but I really think we should be selling an asset this month to improve the books. We could probably get a decent enough keeper for free or a minimal fee to compete with Max and cash in on Bents? I’d rather we keep our best of course but it feels like the wolf is at our door. 

[Davefevs]

9 hours ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Fwiw and as posted in the other thread, it was down to clubs to effectively set their own Covid losses and accounts for the year just published and the next have special dispensations 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/2020/jun/18/uefa-agree-to-suspend-financial-fair-play-rules-due-to-pandemic

 

And

https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/financial-fair-play-rule-change-covid-19-efl-transfer-value-800073

 

Amongst others

 

Ditto here 

 

Where 4 years instead of 3

 

I'm seeing little to alter that I think we will be fine and that will continue to be so as long as the next years accounts arent a mess, which they should not be. 

Efl guidance quite straight forward too

https://www.efl.com/-more/governance/efl-rules--regulations/efl-regulations/appendix-5-financial-fair-play-regulations/

I'm honestly not getting the 'panic' 

However that's just mr me 

 

 

The Swiss Ramble tweet and EFL website seem to imply that covid losses are lost revenues from 2019 baseline.  I totally get player sales not included, but wonder if PPs count…the decrease each year would not be affected by covid so assume that doesn’t count.

Therefore City’s losses are £2.4m in 19/20 and £12.4m in 20/21.  What I wonder is whether there are reduced costs for that lost income and therefore the numbers (certainly in 20/21) should be lower than I suggest.

@Mr Popodopolous thoughts?

[Midred]

With all the known shenanigans going off at various clubs over the last few years would we be beyond unlucky to get "done" at the first offence?

[Major Isewater]

5 hours ago, Fuber said:

What family jewels?

Bentley, Massengo, Scott, Semenyo, Kalas, Pring, Weimann, Atkinson, Benarous… 

[Fuber]

4 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

Bentley, Massengo, Scott, Semenyo, Kalas, Pring, Weimann, Atkinson, Benarous… 

Of those the only ones I would consider Jewels are Scott, Pring, Benarous, young - and long contracts, two of whom are in decent form - that we can build a core around, arguably Atkinson also.

To be sustainable we can't afford 30+ on over £10kpw going forward (especially paying fees for said individual), nor those running down contracts (Massengo, Kalas) as stands.

We also need to know when to maximise profit and when to hold onto a player. I.e. Bentley, for whom we have seemingly an adequate deputy in Max.

All players have a price, what we need is a strategy in how to mitigate and improve on said individuals going forward.

[Ska Junkie]

9 hours ago, VT05763 said:

8 - 10 would be a decent guess I would think.

Some sort of COVID "right off" will come into play, I would think.

That was my point VT, better put by your good self.

On the 'jewels' bit, a couple of Prem supporters at work have been talking about Scott. If supporters have noticed him you can be pretty certain the Prem scouts have.

Edited January 16, 2022 by Ska Junkie

[Waconda]

2 hours ago, Ska Junkie said:

That was my point VT, better put by your good self.

On the 'jewels' bit, a couple of Prem supporters at work have been talking about Scott. If supporters have noticed him you can be pretty certain the Prem scouts have.

Was watching the game via the Fulham live feed yesterday and their commentators were raving about both Scott and Semenyo (before kick off and based on the Cup game) and during the game they also noted Pring.

Very impressed with our young players in general.

It is not all doom and gloom.

[Mr Popodopolous]

23 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The Swiss Ramble tweet and EFL website seem to imply that covid losses are lost revenues from 2019 baseline.  I totally get player sales not included, but wonder if PPs count…the decrease each year would not be affected by covid so assume that doesn’t count.

Therefore City’s losses are £2.4m in 19/20 and £12.4m in 20/21.  What I wonder is whether there are reduced costs for that lost income and therefore the numbers (certainly in 20/21) should be lower than I suggest.

@Mr Popodopolous thoughts?

Ah I've been using the BCFC Holdings accounts, was that our specific club losses?

There would have been some sort of rebate from Parachute Payments by those clubs in receipt but I doubt any of significance.

My main concern is if it is only £5m as some reports say, that totally disregards commercial revenue foregone. If it is as SwissRamble says then what was it, £16-18m in Covid costs then this issue becomes significantly less pressing.

£48m

-£10m in FFP allowances

-£16m say in Covid losses

Halved as per the impact of Covid.

Suddenly things look less urgent. Plenty of clubs still to release but we seem to be the hardest hit thusfar of those who have.

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 hours ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Exactly. Cutting through the bluster it would appear we're fine based on that by some distance. 

However trying to get anything reliable is a nightmare. I've still not seen anything to suggest we're in the trouble that many are predicting though. 

 

 

Your link to the UEFA stuff in another post is timely and handy but I think the benchmark comes when we see what Derby and Reading were allowed to exclude as Covid losses.

Because if they were only allowed to exclude say Gate receipts and Matchday revenue when calculating losses to 2021 when their Settlements were signed off, how could we and other clubs demand much more leeway?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Although on the flipside, Stoke whose FFP position must surely be questionable have just signed Lewis Baker! Jagielka the other day too.

That's:

Wilmott

Jagielka

Vrancic

Baker

Surridge

Loan for Ostigard, out to be replaced by Harwood-Bellis.

A very different profile of player?

Nottingham Forest who frequently make big losses fired Lamouchi, hired Hughton, fired Hughton and paid compensation for Cooper.

They don't yet seem unduly concerned although Worrall and Johnson represent a major insurance policy.

Middlesbrough are in a similar profile to us, if they stay down next season could be the big issue although they appear to be spending relatively freely.

[Davefevs]

50 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Ah I've been using the BCFC Holdings accounts, was that our specific club losses?

There would have been some sort of rebate from Parachute Payments by those clubs in receipt but I doubt any of significance.

My main concern is if it is only £5m as some reports say, that totally disregards commercial revenue foregone. If it is as SwissRamble says then what was it, £16-18m in Covid costs then this issue becomes significantly less pressing.

£48m

-£10m in FFP allowances

-£16m say in Covid losses

Halved as per the impact of Covid.

Suddenly things look less urgent. Plenty of clubs still to release but we seem to be the hardest hit thusfar of those who have.

Sorry, I’m confusing you.  The £2.4m and £12.4m figures are “lost revenues” from the £30.3m peak in 18/19, not losses per se, e.g. £27.9m revenue in 19/20 and £18.9m in 20/21.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Davefevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

Forgot to add Stoke wise, season long loan for Romaine Sawyers also.

Signed Bonham on a free and Fielding on a short term deal also on a free but these are pretty low cost.

Perhaps some of the other clubs are gambling on FFP being significantly loosened. Yet of the 6 Championship clubs to release to date we are the worst by a reasonable amount.

Birmingham granted via football segments over at HKSE, Blackburn was actually the March-March Venkys London Limited. Millwall seem similar year on year. 

Of the sides to leave the division. Norwich with a combination of Parachute Payments, big player sales and their usual wage flexing made a profit and I believe Wycombe did too, albeit on the way down. The bump in Solidarity and TV payments at this level combined with a naturally low cost base.