Winless Sequences…

[Davefevs]

It appears that asking for back to back wins is a bit much (), but how long between wins do we wait for the next “bus” (no pun) comes along.

(home games in caps)

The worst sequence is 3 games:

• after Peterborough
• after Barnsley
• after Derby
• after Cardiff

Only one of those was 3 defeats, the one after Peterborough.

Weve generally been able to pick up a win to keep us ticking over / head above water.  Only once have we avoided a loss between one win and the next (red dotted after Cardiff (a).  Only twice have we followed up a win with a draw.

We are inconsistent.  Do I see us going on a big winless run?  No.

Its a bit disappointing that we’ve not really been able to build any momentum this season…although we have won our last 3 at home.

So, I rarely buy into the concept of “we need to get x points from our next 2/3 games”, especially when x > 3, because it’s proved the less likely outcome this season.  Boring old “one game at a time for me”.

Thoughts?

[Show Me The Money!]

[Clint]

I’m with you Dave - take each game as it comes as you never know what to expect in this league. Looking at our remaining futures my head says I can only see us getting something against Coventry, Birmingham, Peterborough and Hull. I can’t even see us getting anything away at Barnsley either but hey ho it’s the hope that kills us 

[Show Me The Money!]

I can see the current winless streak lasting for another 3 games at least with Middlesbrough, Coventry and Forest coming up

[ExiledAjax]

57 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It appears that asking for back to back wins is a bit much (), but how long between wins do we wait for the next “bus” (no pun) comes along.

(home games in caps)

The worst sequence is 3 games:

• after Peterborough
• after Barnsley
• after Derby
• after Cardiff

Only one of those was 3 defeats, the one after Peterborough.

Weve generally been able to pick up a win to keep us ticking over / head above water.  Only once have we avoided a loss between one win and the next (red dotted after Cardiff (a).  Only twice have we followed up a win with a draw.

We are inconsistent.  Do I see us going on a big winless run?  No.

Its a bit disappointing that we’ve not really been able to build any momentum this season…although we have won our last 3 at home.

So, I rarely buy into the concept of “we need to get x points from our next 2/3 games”, especially when x > 3, because it’s proved the less likely outcome this season.  Boring old “one game at a time for me”.

Thoughts?

Noticed this inconsistency a few months back. 

In addition to wins, we've only had back-to-back draws once this season - the two inbetween the wins against Cardiff and QPR.

However, we've also only suffered multiple losses 3 times this season, and our longest run of losses is 3, and that's happened just once.

Our rolling ten games points haul has pretty much been 11 or 12 for most of the season. It dipped below that when Nige was ill, and it was above that after that 5 game run without loss, but broadly, despite the lurches between winning and losing, we've ticked along at about 1.1 - 1.2 points per game for the whole season. 

We need something from the next two games to maintain that though. The draws have largely dried up in recent months and we are currently on 10 from the last 10, so have dropped below our relative seasonal form. It's a rough patch certainly.

16 minutes ago, Clint said:

I can only see us getting something against Coventry, Birmingham, Peterborough and Hull

We could get some thing against WBA as well, they are far away from the team we played earlier this season. We'll be confirmed as mathematically safe some time around the Peterborough or Stoke game as well, so should have 5 or 6 dead rubbers at the end, and anything can happen in that kind of game.

We will get points when we might not expect it, and may lose some when we think we should take all 3. It's that kind of horrible rollercoaster type season. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Just felt tips these days!

[Show Me The Money!]

7 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just felt tips these days!

 

I’m living the abacus dream!

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

So that's W 10  D 7  L 15 this season.

Last season's 14 league games with NP were

W2  D3  L9

So that's a total record of W12  D10  L24- 46 matches. There hasn't been a back to back victory since NP took charge and despite some players going, some new ones coming it still remains the fault of the players etc. My thoughts are that despite the rare occasion when we look really good which gives us all hope for the future- the reality is that we are a bottom feeder and that it is not unreasonable for fans to be asking some serious questions of the Manager as well as players and owners.

My additional thoughts are that NP should see out the season but if I was SL ,I'd be very nervous to allow NP to "get rid" of all the players he doesnt like , aquire new ones ( he hasn't really convinced me he can get the best out of players including the ones he's brought in) whilst  he's achieved naff all so far. That is my opinion.

 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

So that's W 10  D 7  L 15 this season.

Last season's 14 league games with NP were

W2  D3  L9

So that's a total record of W12  D10  L24- 46 matches. There hasn't been a back to back victory since NP took charge and despite some players going, some new ones coming it still remains the fault of the players etc. My thoughts are that despite the rare occasion when we look really good which gives us all hope for the future- the reality is that we are a bottom feeder and that it is not unreasonable for fans to be asking some serious questions of the Manager as well as players and owners.

My additional thoughts are that NP should see out the season but if I was SL ,I'd be very nervous to allow NP to "get rid" of all the players he doesnt like , aquire new ones ( he hasn't really convinced me he can get the best out of players including the ones he's brought in) whilst  he's achieved naff all so far. That is my opinion.

 

Just a hypothetical question back:

do you think if the many players out of contract last summer had still been under contract, do you think we’d be in the situation we are now (squad-wise)?

[Fordy62]

Our football can be good enough to give us hope. This doesn’t feel like last season at all. 

[Offside]

Yep, one game at a time for me as well. We are far too inconsistent to hope for a run of games without defeat. But equally we are picking up wins, so a long losing streak isn’t something I’m too concerned about either. Our football is better than it was (it’d be hard for it not to be) but our defending is so soft. Our away form is appalling - even a draw would be progress. 

[BrizzleRed]

16 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Our football can be good enough to give us hope. This doesn’t feel like last season at all. 

Completely with you on that.  

The progress has been slower than hoped, but still think we’re gradually moving in the right direction.  

I think some people are still fixated on our previous few seasons, where we’ve had brief flirtations with the play-off places, but as we approached the business end of the season, we’d invariably revert to the stagnated, mid, lower-mid table side that we actually were.

We were going nowhere, but at least we now have the nucleus of a young, talented, though inexperienced side to build on.

[Slippin cider]

27 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Our football can be good enough to give us hope. This doesn’t feel like last season at all. 

I think ‘can be’ is the key , we have seen a few times this season that we can be an excellent side playing some great stuff but it’s the inconsistency that kills us . 

[GrahamC]

57 minutes ago, Clint said:

I’m with you Dave - take each game as it comes as you never know what to expect in this league. Looking at our remaining futures my head says I can only see us getting something against Coventry, Birmingham, Peterborough and Hull. I can’t even see us getting anything away at Barnsley either but hey ho it’s the hope that kills us 

How many points did you expect us to get from the 3 home games against Fulham, Blackburn & Stoke?

Our away form is really poor at present but it is almost impossible to predict with any certainty in this league, though I doubt very much we’ll lose 10 of the last 14, as you’re suggesting.

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just a hypothetical question back:

do you think if the many players out of contract last summer had still been under contract, do you think we’d be in the situation we are now (squad-wise)?

I genuinely cant answer that any more than if we had appointed a different Manager- would we be in the same situation (WLD wise)? Could a different boss get a different tune from the same players? The recent starting line ups are all the same players as Holden had at his disposal except Klose. Atkinson, Tanner, Simpson, James and King  are all Nige's signings and all injured (except Simpson who has excluded) which is a bit worrying in itself. 

So hypotheticals are another matter because we are where we are. 

On another matter, Dave, would you have available stats that show if there's a Manager in the EFL who has a record to date over the last 45-50 matches that is as poor as Nige? I'd be really interested to see whether there's another owner/chairman as patient as SL and a set of fans who have been as supportive.

[Fordy62]

12 minutes ago, Slippin cider said:

I think ‘can be’ is the key , we have seen a few times this season that we can be an excellent side playing some great stuff but it’s the inconsistency that kills us . 

Yeh. It is and it will be. Turning a great big tanker round takes time. If we continue on this trajectory we won’t be far off come season after next. 

[ExiledAjax]

14 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

On another matter, Dave, would you have available stats that show if there's a Manager in the EFL who has a record to date over the last 45-50 matches that is as poor as Nige? I'd be really interested to see whether there's another owner/chairman as patient as SL and a set of fans who have been as supportive.

You've got a full 92 club table that covers the whole of 2021 available here. https://experimental361.com/2021/12/30/2021-league-table/

Doesn't quite answer your question but Pearson was in charge of us for all but the first 8 or 9 league games of that year so it almost covers the 45 - 50 games you ask about. It also doesn't include our record for 2022 so far, which is W3, D1, L5 - so 10 points from 10 games, 1 point per game, which is above the 0.94 ppg we registered over 48 games in 2021. Also, obviously many of the teams in this extract will have changed manager, but I'd guess Dyche at Burnley is still doing worse than Pearson, and I've heard no cries for him to be handed a sack. But it might give you a steer towards the answer you're after.

Edited February 14, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Red-Robbo]

16 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

How many points did you expect us to get from the 3 home games against Fulham, Blackburn & Stoke?

Our away form is really poor at present but it is almost impossible to predict with any certainty in this league, though I doubt very much we’ll lose 10 of the last 14, as you’re suggesting.

 

You can't have everything in life. It's win home games or win away games, you can't have both!

 

(In fairness to Nigel Pearson, I'll concede that my comment references what was the only genuinely crappy question I think he was asked at that testy Q&A)

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

I genuinely cant answer that any more than if we had appointed a different Manager- would we be in the same situation (WLD wise)? Could a different boss get a different tune from the same players? The recent starting line ups are all the same players as Holden had at his disposal except Klose. Atkinson, Tanner, Simpson, James and King  are all Nige's signings and all injured (except Simpson who has excluded) which is a bit worrying in itself. 

So hypotheticals are another matter because we are where we are. 

On another matter, Dave, would you have available stats that show if there's a Manager in the EFL who has a record to date over the last 45-50 matches that is as poor as Nige? I'd be really interested to see whether there's another owner/chairman as patient as SL and a set of fans who have been as supportive.

Wayne Rooney is averaging 1.17 ppm in his time at Derby.  Nige averaging 1.16 ppm this season (1.00 ppm in his time here).

There are other managers who you can include.

- Paul Warne 0.89 ppm (currently in Lg1)

- Gareth Ainsworth 0.89 ppm (currently in Lg1 46/54 were with Wycombe)

- Lee Bowyer 1.15 ppm (42 of his games are Brum)

 

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Wayne Rooney is averaging 1.17 ppm in his time at Derby.  Nige averaging 1.16 ppm this season (1.00 ppm in his time here).

And Wayne's getting a ******* statue at PP 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

You've got a full 92 club table that covers the whole of 2021 available here. https://experimental361.com/2021/12/30/2021-league-table/

Doesn't quite answer your question but Pearson was in charge of us for all but the first 8 or 9 league games of that year so it almost covers the 45 - 50 games you ask about. Obviously many of the teams in this extract will have changed manager, but I'd guess Dyche at Burnley is still doing worse than Pearson, and I've heard no cries for him to be handed a sack. 

Thanks for this . You're right in that it doesn't answer the question which I'm genuinely interested in.

As far as Sean Dyche goes- it's not even comparable because what he's already achieved at little Burnley is nothing short of a miracle which is why they actually named a Pub after him. Any club as small as Burnley that has managed to stay in the Prem as long as they have is amazing- like Howe and Bournemouth. The point being that those are exceptional circumstances because the Manager has achieved the remarkable with the improbable.

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Thanks for this . You're right in that it doesn't answer the question which I'm genuinely interested in.

As far as Sean Dyche goes- it's not even comparable because what he's already achieved at little Burnley is nothing short of a miracle which is why they actually named a Pub after him. Any club as small as Burnley that has managed to stay in the Prem as long as they have is amazing- like Howe and Bournemouth. The point being that those are exceptional circumstances because the Manager has achieved the remarkable with the improbable.

Are our circumstances exceptional? Is keeping us in the Championship this season remarkable given that it looked improbable this time last year? I think there is a strong argument that the answer to both those questions is 'Yes'.

[Numero Uno]

27 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

I genuinely cant answer that any more than if we had appointed a different Manager- would we be in the same situation (WLD wise)? Could a different boss get a different tune from the same players? The recent starting line ups are all the same players as Holden had at his disposal except Klose. Atkinson, Tanner, Simpson, James and King  are all Nige's signings and all injured (except Simpson who has excluded) which is a bit worrying in itself. 

So hypotheticals are another matter because we are where we are. 

On another matter, Dave, would you have available stats that show if there's a Manager in the EFL who has a record to date over the last 45-50 matches that is as poor as Nige? I'd be really interested to see whether there's another owner/chairman as patient as SL and a set of fans who have been as supportive.

I can answer that without even looking. Not many there isn't.

There is a realisation amongst many fans, the majority in fact, that however bumpy the road gets the club needed a huge reset after the stockpiling of mediocre players on wages they will never better in their careers in the Ashton/Johnson era and that it is going to take time to see through and we are therefore left with not much choice other than support the Manager that Steve appointed to do it (which is why he chucked a three year contract at him when there was really no need - he certainly didn't do it to increase the pay out if he fired him).

Many of us realise that with £38m losses announced this reset that the club has to undergo to ever be competitive at this level and try and push on again cannot be undertaken in one transfer window. It's absolutely impossible. The Manager himself said it would take three and on what I've seen to date he's not wrong. We realise that the Owner and Manager are singing from an identical hymn sheet, there's no evidence whatsoever that Pearson is pulling in an alternative direction....absolutely none even if you go out of your way to try and find it.

What acceptance of the above DOES NOT mean, contrary to the opinion of a few on here, is that the supporters going along with the "plan" are happy to see capitulations like yesterday, are happy to have the worst back line/goalkeeper combination in the league, are happy to see kids making mistakes and learning on the job but costing us points whilst doing it, are happy seeing us hanging on for dear life when we do get three points, are happy when we do put in a cracking performance and throw 3 points down the shitter like we did at Preston, are happy to see the likes of COD and Vyner anywhere near a Bristol City squad let alone a starting eleven...............all it means is that we ACCEPT IT FOR NOW, that's all it means but quite a few have real issues getting to grips with it.

If you don't that's your prerogative, that same as it's ours to go along with it at the moment.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Numero Uno

[HappyClapper]

21 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

I genuinely cant answer that any more than if we had appointed a different Manager- would we be in the same situation (WLD wise)? Could a different boss get a different tune from the same players? The recent starting line ups are all the same players as Holden had at his disposal except Klose. 

Would you accept MRR, that they are the same players who were absolutely abysmal at the end of Holden’s tenure. I’m thinking Watford, Reading and Barnsley. There are a few exceptions, due to injuries, and the emergence of Scott etc, but a core of players have shown themselves not to be up to championship football on a consistent basis.

[Davefevs]

Last night I posted on twitter in response to someone:

@Numero Unoto add to your post…I don’t expect it City to remain at this level, I expect Nige to improve things, through changing the personnel and coaching.

 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

2 minutes ago, HappyClapper said:

Would you accept MRR, that they are the same players who were absolutely abysmal at the end of Holden’s tenure. I’m thinking Watford, Reading and Barnsley. There are a few exceptions, due to injuries, and the emergence of Scott etc, but a core of players have shown themselves not to be up to championship football on a consistent basis.

Yes I'd accept they were abysmal some of the time and pretty good on occasion pretty much the same as now. What I cant accept is that the core of our first team are not up to Championship standard on a regular basis or at least any more so than almost half all the teams in the Championship.. We will not get relegated, I believe, and were't last season either so we are clearly Championship standard.

The question is should we be doing better with the players we have and I believe the answer is yes.

[Davefevs]

Just now, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

The question is should we be doing better with the players we have and I believe the answer is yes.

I agree…..I just don’t think we should be doing much better.  Maybe 4/5 points better, enough to be a bit higher in the table.  I do think injuries are a part of the reason we aren’t higher.

[Numero Uno]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Last night I posted on twitter in response to someone:

@Numero Unoto add to your post…I don’t expect it City to remain at this level, I expect Nige to improve things, through changing the personnel and coaching.

 

He has to change the personnel........otherwise we will remain at the level we are now as a team. You can see the improvements that coaching has made to our attacking play. The movement we show now compared to the beginning of the season is like chalk and cheese, we have gone from having no goal threat to having more than enough to earn points in Championship matches. Unfortunately the same amount of coaching cannot stop certain players making the same mistakes defensively game after game. They aren't good enough at the level and no amount of coaching those particular players will change it. We are just as much a defensive calamity as we always have been over the last 18 months.

If you want to put it down to coaching then you have to ask WHY the attacking side of things has improved and the defensive side hasn't. It won't be because Managers/Coaches with the UEFA Pro License and with hundreds of league games under their belt know less than the fan who writes in the Evening Post or the self appointed font of all football knowledge who rings Radio Bristol every week, that's for sure.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Numero Uno

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I agree…..I just don’t think we should be doing much better.  Maybe 4/5 points better, enough to be a bit higher in the table.  I do think injuries are a part of the reason we aren’t higher.

Hmmm- I'm really not sure about the 4-5 points. When we look at those last minute shockers we've suffered then add +6 minimum ( I think!) and also the truly shocking nailed on penalties we have been denied add may be another 3 ?

My point is ( and made above to @HappyClapper)is that we are pretty much a bang average Champ team but playing like bottom feeders due to a terrible defence which , surely, is for the manager to manage?

[TonyTonyTony]

35 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

You've got a full 92 club table that covers the whole of 2021 available here. https://experimental361.com/2021/12/30/2021-league-table/

Doesn't quite answer your question but Pearson was in charge of us for all but the first 8 or 9 league games of that year so it almost covers the 45 - 50 games you ask about. It also doesn't include our record for 2022 so far, which is W3, D1, L5 - so 10 points from 10 games, 1 point per game, which is above the 0.94 ppg we registered over 48 games in 2021. Also, obviously many of the teams in this extract will have changed manager, but I'd guess Dyche at Burnley is still doing worse than Pearson, and I've heard no cries for him to be handed a sack. But it might give you a steer towards the answer you're after.

Christ that makes grim reading. 

 

On the plus side, we are still above the Tesco baggers.