Jump to content
IGNORED

How “safe” are we


fanjita

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

We play our worst against shit teams. Proved that on the weekend. 

Not sure that’s true.

We have beaten all of the bottom 4 so far every single time we have played them, Cardiff twice, too.

Not beaten any of the current top six & the win over QPR away looks even more flukey now than it did at the time.

Decent efforts against Fulham & Blackburn to pick up draws now seem very much the exception.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Not sure that’s true.

We have beaten all of the bottom 4 so far every single time we have played them, Cardiff twice, too.

Not beaten any of the current top six & the win over QPR away looks even more flukey now than it did at the time.

Decent efforts against Fulham & Blackburn to pick up draws now seem very much the exception.

 

Historically, it often is.  The other thing is, the bottom 4 (not just 3 if Reading are still in the mire) will start fighting for their lives the nearer we get to season's end. Faced with the prospect of earning a lot less money, underperforming players tend to wake up and start doubling their efforts.

At any rate, I don't think it's a given that we'll beat Peterborough. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both Reading and Barnsley have winnable games in hand (H vs Stoke and Blackpool, both to be played next month), and I would not be surprised to see us beaten at Barnsley...so virtually these two teams could be respectively -8 and -10 from us.

IMO, we need to beat at least one team (maybe one of those below/near us, like Peterborough or Hull?) and get two/three draws. Hopefully the return of some players (James, Tanner, Atkinson, others) can give us a boost.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As others have said if we end up losing 15 of our last 16 matches we deserve everything we get and even then it might not be enough to see us get relegated. That's how bad points deductions and a couple of terrible sides at the bottom have made it this year.

3 points from 48 won't happen but if it did we would be better off in League 1 starting again anyway with a new Manager, Owner, CEO, players the lot. I can see us scraping another 10-11 points with maybe a couple of consecutive wins when the pressure finally lifts nearer the end of the season. People always say "can't see where our next win is coming from", well of course you can't when the team is in shit form but we always pick up a win somewhere and it's rinse and repeat. Things need to change next season though, not dramatically but losing two goals a game every sodding game and getting bullied twice by Birmingham will not bring back the fans we are no doubt going to lose next season. 10K tops on season tickets imo, TOPS. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Red-Robbo said:

Faced with the prospect of earning a lot less money, underperforming players tend to wake up and start doubling their efforts.

Well, by that logic, most of the wasters here who that will also apply to should be putting themselves in the shop window. I'm sure there are conversations had with players about their futures for next season (NP has a reputation for being honest and forthright) so anyone who's in the slightest bit worried as to their future should get their fingers out.
I doubt they will though. Players have poor seasons at clubs, get released and nearly always seem to pick up a new club. Maybe not on the same money, but wages going forward are something of an unknown quantity anyway. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Dan Robin said:

Both Reading and Barnsley have winnable games in hand (H vs Stoke and Blackpool, both to be played next month), and I would not be surprised to see us beaten at Barnsley...so virtually these two teams could be respectively -8 and -10 from us.

IMO, we need to beat at least one team (maybe one of those below/near us, like Peterborough or Hull?) and get two/three draws. Hopefully the return of some players (James, Tanner, Atkinson, others) can give us a boost.

You worry far too much imo.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Philly The Kid said:

Well, by that logic, most of the wasters here who that will also apply to should be putting themselves in the shop window. I'm sure there are conversations had with players about their futures for next season (NP has a reputation for being honest and forthright) so anyone who's in the slightest bit worried as to their future should get their fingers out.
I doubt they will though. Players have poor seasons at clubs, get released and nearly always seem to pick up a new club. Maybe not on the same money, but wages going forward are something of an unknown quantity anyway. 

 

I actually don't think there are too many "wasters" on the field. You get the feeling "wasters" would be Pearson's #1 hate and be sidelined quite sharpish (as indeed at least one has).

The reasons for our failure this season are a lot more complex than just players not trying. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've been looking like staying up since October/November time. Probably around the Barnsley home win was when we could start to say with some confidence that we were going to be drifting to a lower mid-table finish this season. We've 10 games remaining and are likely to get another 1 to 1.2 ppg (ie 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses or equivalent), so landing us in the low 50's at the end of the season.

The most likely outcome is that Peterborough, Derby and Barnsley go down. It's not 100% certain, but it's the most likely outcome - regardless of who wins or loses on any particular matchday.

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m behind NP and have said all along that this season is a free hit for him aslong as we stay up. 
However, he’s got a big summer ahead for me in regards to recruitment as there has to be some progress next season, i think out of the 3 young assets we have,  keeping AS next season is the most important 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To suggest 2 of the bottom 4 will overtake us by season's end seems improbable to me.

That's not to be complacent, merely realistic. 

Not that I expect us to get 50 points either, mind you. I predict us finishing 20th, 19th at best, which means a painful end to the season that gives more ammo to the anti NP brigade. 

Edited by Merrick's Marvels
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Rob k said:

I’m behind NP and have said all along that this season is a free hit for him aslong as we stay up. 
However, he’s got a big summer ahead for me in regards to recruitment as there has to be some progress next season, i think out of the 3 young assets we have,  keeping AS next season is the most important 

Which one AS or AS or both?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 05/03/2022 at 20:26, fanjita said:

If we assume Peterborough and Derby are all but down, Derby 16 points behind on same number of games, Peterborough 19 points behind having 2 games in hand on us, Barnsley look like the only worry.

leaving out their result today they had found a bit of form lately, with 2 games in hand on us and we still have to play them it may not be as comfortable as some may think.

I will be happy when we are mathematically safe.

Despite points deductions etc we are still comfortable and probably already safe. 35 points is probably enough to be safe this season. Our form is poor but in 2022 only a point worse than Derby and 5 points better than Reading, 10 points better than Peterborough and 3 points better than Barnsley (despite their more recent form). It would be nice to catch West Brom, but we will probably finish 19th.

FORM 2022
image.png.ea56c528d2b778c60b0ccb993ca22c06.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, TomF said:

Avoid defeat on Tuesday and reckon we’ll be safe. 

Belt and braces eh Tom? If any of the three bottom clubs hit the form required to overtake us and Hull and Reading get a few points, then they will deserve to stay up. I will put my neck on the line here and say we were safe even before todays results. We look at the table after 46 games to see if I was right.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Safe as houses, For us to go down if we lost every one of our nine remaining games two of the following need to happen:

Posh win seven out of ten

WRDC win six and draw one out of nine

Barnsley win six out of ten

Reading win five out of ten

I doubt bookies are even offering odds.

 

Copycat, ? I did that post last week! 

And we are now three points safer.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Safe as houses, For us to go down if we lost every one of our nine remaining games two of the following need to happen:

Posh win seven out of ten

WRDC win six and draw one out of nine

Barnsley win six out of ten

Reading win five out of ten

I doubt bookies are even offering odds.

 

125/1 to be relegated on Paddypower.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...