Points Deduction - When will we know?

[BCFCGav]

Is there a hard and fast rule on when the EFL can dish out points deductions? Or can they strike whenever they feel like it? I’d imagine whether we face one or not depends on this summer window, so will we not know until early September when the widow closes? Any help appreciated!

[slartibartfast]

18 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

Is there a hard and fast rule on when the EFL can dish out points deductions? Or can they strike whenever they feel like it? I’d imagine whether we face one or not depends on this summer window, so will we not know until early September when the widow closes? Any help appreciated!

Two weeks before the end of next season, just to **** us up !

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, BCFCGav said:

Is there a hard and fast rule on when the EFL can dish out points deductions? Or can they strike whenever they feel like it? I’d imagine whether we face one or not depends on this summer window, so will we not know until early September when the widow closes? Any help appreciated!

In theory, we may not get one at all. Sorry I can't give a definitive answer but there are a range of scenarios, with variables also in between. The breach itself is forecast to be to 2022/23.

1) If all goes as we have seen then the earliest we can get one in would be Spring 2023. We will in effect have the Summer 2022 and January 2023 window to put things right.

2) Or it might be next summer where we fall into Embargo ie after our accounts made up to May 2023. Either we would agree a Settlement ie points and Business Plan or we would contest and it would go to an Independent Disciplinary Commission.

Of course we would be embargoed on some level for the duration and maybe under an Imposed Business Plan pertaining to 2023/24 and maybe beyond with the aim of keeping us in line.

Big Variable

The charges used to be after the season although in theory can take place in the Spring of the existing season but a major change is that the EFL can step in to impose an Embargo, a Business Plan ahead of an anticipated breach in order to prevent.

If that happened this summer perhaps no deduction at all! Likewise if we make good the shortfall and spend within limits thereafter off our own back.

3) This has never yet happened but in theory I don't suppose there is anything to stop us this summer offering to the EFL the points deduction and appropriate Embargo as the settlement to take place in 2022/23. In which case it'd kick in once signed off and ratified by an IDC which could be fairly swift.

I suppose too if a Business Plan was imposed this summer it would be logical for an automatic deduction to kick in next Spring when clubs submit their Projections if we fell short.

Disputing the issue can lead to very severe embargoes with no guarantees of winning a case.

Edited April 27, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Waconda]

We will not be getting a points deduction.

[SecretSam]

8 hours ago, slartibartfast said:

Two weeks before the end of next season, just to **** us up !

Yeah, we'll have to settle for second place 

[1960maaan]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

1) If all goes as we have seen then the earliest we can get one in would be Spring 2023. We will in effect have the Summer 2022 and January 2023 window to put things right.

That's what I assumed . 
It would give us time for many things to happen.

B'muff miss promotion, Kelly goes and we get sell on.
Burnley get relegated, or just take an offer for Brownhill, we get sell on.
Webster gets his "big move" we get sell on.
HNM doesn't sign, we sell.

All these would be handy. But another thing to consider , if Steve decides not to just write off debts he could instead "sell the naming rights" to the Gate to himself, one of his companies or some NFT/Bitcoin third party. It could see us clear of FFP.

There are a lot of moving parts in this still. I don't envy you trying to keep up with it all Mr P.

[Davefevs]

18 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

That's what I assumed . 
It would give us time for many things to happen.

B'muff miss promotion, Kelly goes and we get sell on.
Burnley get relegated, or just take an offer for Brownhill, we get sell on.
Webster gets his "big move" we get sell on.
HNM doesn't sign, we sell.

All these would be handy. But another thing to consider , if Steve decides not to just write off debts he could instead "sell the naming rights" to the Gate to himself, one of his companies or some NFT/Bitcoin third party. It could see us clear of FFP.

There are a lot of moving parts in this still. I don't envy you trying to keep up with it all Mr P.

Plus we still don’t know:

• how much lost revenue during Covid we’ve been able to exclude in P&S
• how quickly the EFL will adopt the new FFP rules

My gut feel is that we will use the summer window to bring us within the £39m allowance over the reporting period, we won’t suffer a points penalty, nor embargo…but will just be under monitoring only.

[And Its Smith]

I’d be surprised if we had a points deduction. Considering the value in our squad, it would be complete mismanagement of the situation to get to that point 

[Simon bristol]

3 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I’d be surprised if we had a points deduction. Considering the value in our squad, it would be complete mismanagement of the situation to get to that point 

It was complete mismanagement thatgot us in this position!

[1960maaan]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Plus we still don’t know:

• how much lost revenue during Covid we’ve been able to exclude in P&S
• how quickly the EFL will adopt the new FFP rules

My gut feel is that we will use the summer window to bring us within the £39m allowance over the reporting period, we won’t suffer a points penalty, nor embargo…but will just be under monitoring only.

To me, this is the interesting part. Only guessing, but I imagine a higher percentage of our off pitch income relied on the Stadium than many other teams. A big part of building the new stadium was the conferencing, events and Concerts. All of which have been decimated by COVID just as our income had hit record levels. 

Perfect Word has us getting £20m from sell ons, enough leeway from FFP to keep us out of trouble, all the young kids staying and Pearson given money to spend . There is a worse case scenario , but let's not go there just yet. 

[And Its Smith]

12 minutes ago, Simon bristol said:

It was complete mismanagement thatgot us in this position!

And it would be further mismanagement if we had points deducted 

[GrahamC]

26 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

And it would be further mismanagement if we had points deducted 

How?

This is all retrospective so far.

We significantly cut our wage bill last summer, with 15 out, only 3 completely new players in, & still stayed up with something to spare, but we aren’t masters of our destiny to move on the likes of Palmer, Wells, Kalas or sell promising youngsters to now stay within it.

I know you are desperate to paint this as Pearson’s doing but it has Mark Ashton’s & to a lesser extent, LJ’s fingerprints all over it.

Edited April 28, 2022 by GrahamC

[Davefevs]

24 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

To me, this is the interesting part. Only guessing, but I imagine a higher percentage of our off pitch income relied on the Stadium than many other teams. A big part of building the new stadium was the conferencing, events and Concerts. All of which have been decimated by COVID just as our income had hit record levels. 

Perfect Word has us getting £20m from sell ons, enough leeway from FFP to keep us out of trouble, all the young kids staying and Pearson given money to spend . There is a worse case scenario , but let's not go there just yet. 

At a really basic level:

Income fell from £30.300m in 18/19 (the last year not impacted by Covid) to £18.258m, so £12m lost.  EFL recent rules say £5m allowed.  I still think this might be “£5m without having to prove it”, so if you want to set-off more you can, but you’ll have to provide the proof.

[1960maaan]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

At a really basic level:

Income fell from £30.300m in 18/19 (the last year not impacted by Covid) to £18.258m, so £12m lost.  EFL recent rules say £5m allowed.  I still think this might be “£5m without having to prove it”, so if you want to set-off more you can, but you’ll have to provide the proof.

That extra £7m worth of allowances could make a massive difference.

I have the feeling, and absolutely no proof, but I think this year the EFL could be at it's most lenient . There are lots of mitigating circumstances  for all teams, it would take a lot of work and investigating to prove teams are trying to pull a fast one. To give basic allowances and have to prove more makes sense. 

I wonder if , if the announcement came early that we would be free of any punishment it would boost ticket sales. A few are expecting a deduction , if that's not on the table , and maybe even having a small 'war chest' might encourage the doubters to buy their season tickets. 
Not everyone is as easy as me .

Edited April 28, 2022 by 1960maaan

[And Its Smith]

19 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

How?

This is all retrospective so far.

We significantly cut our wage bill last summer, with 15 out, only 3 completely new players in, & still stayed up with something to spare, but we aren’t masters of our destiny to move on the likes of Palmer, Wells, Kalas or sell promising youngsters to now stay within it.

I know you are desperate to paint this as Pearson’s doing but it has Mark Ashton’s & to a lesser extent, LJ’s fingerprints all over it.

I’m not desperate for anything other than not to lose points.  I don’t think we will lose points because of the steps we have taken, which you so eloquently list.  And if we do still look like losing points then I’d expect us to sell players to avoid that. If we didn’t it would be mismanagement. 
 

We have done very well to cut the wage bill. I never said otherwise. As for your last paragraph, I’m not desperate to paint it as Pearsons fault and not sure where you have got that from. The only thing that Pearson has disappointed me in so far is taking 50 games to make us look defensively okay. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by And Its Smith

[City oz]

1 minute ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m not desperate for anything other than not to lose points.  I don’t think we will lose points because of the steps we have taken, which you so eloquently list.  And if we do still look like losing points then I’d expect us to sell players to avoid that. If we didn’t it would be mismanagement. 
 

We have done very well to cut the wage bill. I never said otherwise 

I have just googled points deductions Bristol City. It potentially does not look good and there are also other Championship clubs listed as well.

[And Its Smith]

4 minutes ago, City oz said:

I have just googled points deductions Bristol City. It potentially does not look good and there are also other Championship clubs listed as well.

We have enough value in our squad to sell players and avoid a points deduction.  For me, avoiding it is very important. Gould seemed to suggest we may just take a deduction on purpose.  That may well have been bravado.  If the club is trying to sign players on one hand and presumably talking about the club potential whilst also suffering a points deduction, it’s an awful look 

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m not desperate for anything other than not to lose points.  I don’t think we will lose points because of the steps we have taken, which you so eloquently list.  And if we do still look like losing points then I’d expect us to sell players to avoid that. If we didn’t it would be mismanagement. 
 

We have done very well to cut the wage bill. I never said otherwise. As for your last paragraph, I’m not desperate to paint it as Pearsons fault and not sure where you have got that from. The only thing that Pearson has disappointed me in so far is taking 50 games to make us look defensively okay. 

So how would it be mismanagement for us to do so now?

We can only sell if someone wants to buy, are you suggesting that we would therefore refuse a deal knowing the alternative would be a points deduction? 

I’m confused as to how you think we have done “very well” to cut the wage bill but it would be mismanagement if we get a deduction?

[And Its Smith]

5 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

So how would it be mismanagement for us to do so now?

We can only sell if someone wants to buy, are you suggesting that we would therefore refuse a deal knowing the alternative would be a points deduction? 

I’m confused as to how you think we have done “very well” to cut the wage bill but it would be mismanagement if we get a deduction?

Because we have players that we can sell to avoid it.  We have players that other clubs want. 

[City oz]

13 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

We have enough value in our squad to sell players and avoid a points deduction.  For me, avoiding it is very important. Gould seemed to suggest we may just take a deduction on purpose.  That may well have been bravado.  If the club is trying to sign players on one hand and presumably talking about the club potential whilst also suffering a points deduction, it’s an awful look 

Something like a deduction of 6 to 12 points next season could result in a possible play off spot but then drop us back down to where we are about now this season. The Championship is a very close league when you take on points as a perspective.

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

We have enough value in our squad to sell players and avoid a points deduction.  For me, avoiding it is very important. Gould seemed to suggest we may just take a deduction on purpose.  That may well have been bravado.  If the club is trying to sign players on one hand and presumably talking about the club potential whilst also suffering a points deduction, it’s an awful look 

Yep, posturing for support from other Champ clubs so that cost-cutting not quite as heavy.

Just now, City oz said:

Something like a deduction of 6 to 12 points next season could result in a possible play off spot but then drop us back down to where we are about now this season. The Championship is a very close league when you take on points as a perspective.

We won’t be anywhere near 6-12 points.

If we were to fail to make the necessary cost cuts, we are likely to be in the 0-3 pts range.

[City oz]

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, posturing for support from other Champ clubs so that cost-cutting not quite as heavy.

We won’t be anywhere near 6-12 points.

If we were to fail to make the necessary cost cuts, we are likely to be in the 0-3 pts range.

Thanks Dave, News like that gave me bloody pains in me chest so I took an extra aspirine . Now I might have a Creatures Pale Ale and be happy

[bcfcredandwhite]

I don't know how these things work - can't Steve just raise the rent for Ashton Gate and the other training facilities that the Bears and the Flyers pay to a few more £million (and then subsidise them accordingly)?

[And Its Smith]

35 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Because we have players that we can sell to avoid it.  We have players that other clubs want. 

@GrahamC I can name them if it helps

Massengo, Scott and Semenyo are sought after for sure.  Kalas would attract interest no doubt about it.  Depending on opinion of current market values that is anywhere between £20m to £35m worth of talent. 

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

@GrahamC I can name them if it helps

Massengo, Scott and Semenyo are sought after for sure.  Kalas would attract interest no doubt about it.  Depending on opinion of current market values that is anywhere between £20m to £35m worth of talent. 

Selling is a short term solution. We've sold £20m(ish) of talent a few times in recent years. Bryan + Reid + Flint in 2018, Webster in 2019, and Kelly in 2020 (iirc). And yet here we are discussing points deductions and saying we need to yet again flog our bright young things to the highest paying Premier League vulture.

It is an unsustainable, hand to mouth type model that no club can hope to sustain for season after season after season. It also, and I speak personally now, is depressing for fans to see young exciting players ply their trade at AG for just one or two seasons. I hate it.

The long term, necessary solution, is to wean ourselves off of relying on big sales to stay ahead of FFP. That means cutting wages, costs, and finding creative alternative income streams. We are doing that, but we need to do more. Because doing that is the only way that we can reach true sustainability.

Edited April 28, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[And Its Smith]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Selling is a short term solution. We've sold £20m(ish) of talent a few times in recent years. Bryan + Reid + Flint in 2018, Webster in 2019, and Kelly in 2020 (iirc). And yet here we are discussing points deductions and saying we need to yet again flog our bright young things to the highest paying Premier League vulture.

It is an unsustainable, hand to mouth type model that no club can hope to sustain for season after season after season. It also, and u speak personally now, is depressing for fans to see young exciting players py their trade at AG for just one or two seasons. I hate it.

The long term, necessary solution, is to wean ourselves off of relying on big sales to stay ahead of FFP. That means cutting wages, costs, and finding creative alternative income streams. We are doing that, but we need to do more. Because doing that is the only way that we can reach true sustainability.

Completely agree.  However it’s a short term solution that is open to us and should be used.  Longer term we are already showing that we are cutting our cloth better nowadays.  

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Completely agree.  However it’s a short term solution that is open to us and should be used.  Longer term we are already showing that we are cutting our cloth better nowadays.  

I agree. And I understand that we may need the temporary sticking plaster of a £10m sale now, in order to allow us to do the necessary surgery that is the long-term solution. 

I just wanted to set the point that we need to hope that this is the last season where we rely on selling a player. 

Let Massengo be sold so that Benarous may stay?

[1960maaan]

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Selling is a short term solution. We've sold £20m(ish) of talent a few times in recent years. Bryan + Reid + Flint in 2018, Webster in 2019, and Kelly in 2020 (iirc). And yet here we are discussing points deductions and saying we need to yet again flog our bright young things to the highest paying Premier League vulture.

It is an unsustainable, hand to mouth type model that no club can hope to sustain for season after season after season. It also, and I speak personally now, is depressing for fans to see young exciting players ply their trade at AG for just one or two seasons. I hate it.

The long term, necessary solution, is to wean ourselves off of relying on big sales to stay ahead of FFP. That means cutting wages, costs, and finding creative alternative income streams. We are doing that, but we need to do more. Because doing that is the only way that we can reach true sustainability.

Totally agree, the way we were doing it was unsustainable. A few hits and lots of scattergun signings that we hoped would work.
As has been said over and over, recruitment, recruitment, recruitment. We need the academy, we need to sign good young talent, and inevitably there will be interest. I think where we went wrong was, sign a real prospect (Webster) and think that's it job done. Then panic when he actually gets head hunted. Like the ongoing work of the Academy, natural progression that a player either grows out of the age group and moves on, or moves up. There is always the next year and you work to replace good ones with better ones. That's how the recruitment should work. We've heard it said that we have 4/5 targets for every position, yet all the time under Ashton/Johnson you never saw a plan or direction, just more players. 
Southampton are the best example I can think of. Over several years they spotted and signed players that eventually went to bigger clubs, yet they always seemed to be able to replace them.  EVERYONE is a selling Club when more money/ambition/power enters the equation , it's how you deal with the loss of a player. Southampton have done that brilliantly . 

The plan should never be buy to sell, which was our mantra for a while. It should be buy to be the best, the rest will fall into place. This summer will show if the recruitment, targeting and planning have improved since Ashton has left the building.

[Davefevs]

18 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I agree. And I understand that we may need the temporary sticking plaster of a £10m sale now, in order to allow us to do the necessary surgery that is the long-term solution. 

I just wanted to set the point that we need to hope that this is the last season where we rely on selling a player. 

Let Massengo be sold so that Benarous may stay?

Yep, Amortisation levels of £14m p.a. was ridiculous imho.  Pearson / Gould has cut this in half(ish) this season and next…and as it currently stands could be down to £2m by 23/24….let alone wage bill reduction too.

Clubs like Millwall and Luton and Coventry all run with minimal amortisation cost profiles, therefore haven’t had to react to a depressed transfer market.

We went mad in reality….certainly want sustainable.  The reason we aren’t suffering as badly is thanks to Academy players bailing out the finances.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

But another thing to consider , if Steve decides not to just write off debts he could instead "sell the naming rights" to the Gate to himself, one of his companies or some NFT/Bitcoin third party. It could see us clear of FFP.

RPT Fair Value regs can kick in if it's to SL or one of his companies or a Related Party. Benchmarking and comparable will form a part so it should help but no magic bullet IMO.

If there is a third party that is arms length, the question is how much would we get. Could the fact that Bristol Rugby play there too enhance it when set against pure football? Because naming rights for clubs at this level aren't so much or haven't been.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous