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Any Good Bets Collected, Now The Season is Over?


maxjak

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As I do,  every pre-season, I wager a season long bet on the various divisions.   This season I did an accumulator of Fulham Champs, Wigan Champs, Burnley relegation.................and Bradford Top  7 finish!  My £6 bet would have realised nearly £500, if I had not been dumb enough to pick Bradford as my 2nd Division good thing?  ( Not even to get promoted, but Top 7!!) they finished 14th.   Still, as frustrating as it is, It is always the case of a chain only  being as strong as it's weakest link?  I wondered if any forum members cleaned up, or like   me, came close, but have a  similar tale of...............if only?  

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16 minutes ago, TomF said:

Anyone see that scouse lass who had Liverpool to win the quadruple and turned down £95k cash out when Man C were 2-0.. ouch 

Yep..........just found the story, brave decision, but ultimately misguided, as Man City have a history of stunning comebacks?  Even so, in her position, i do not know what i would have done?               

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22 minutes ago, TomF said:

Anyone see that scouse lass who had Liverpool to win the quadruple and turned down £95k cash out when Man C were 2-0.. ouch 

Bookie cashouts are the biggest con going, how they are allowed to basically rip people off legally is beyond me. They must be making an absolute fortune from them.

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2 minutes ago, TomF said:

Follow the thread!  But at 5.35pm yesterday she was offered £95k and turned it down.  Some people questioning if it was a complete stunt by Betfair thou.. 

I understand your scepticism............but as a long term Betfair user, I would say that it is the the sort of situation that arises......and seems credible.

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8 minutes ago, TheReds said:

Bookie cashouts are the biggest con going, how they are allowed to basically rip people off legally is beyond me. They must be making an absolute fortune from them.

I don't understand your POV.........why is it a con ,  If it allows individuals to take out their bet early?       Some years back the option did not exist, and It is a facility that i have often used.  So I end up winning 70% of the bet, instead of losing everything. Please explain?

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44 minutes ago, maxjak said:

As I do,  every pre-season, I wager a season long bet on the various divisions.   This season I did an accumulator of Fulham Champs, Wigan Champs, Burnley relegation.................and Bradford Top  7 finish!  My £6 bet would have realised nearly £500, if I had not been dumb enough to pick Bradford as my 2nd Division good thing?  ( Not even to get promoted, but Top 7!!) they finished 14th.   Still, as frustrating as it is, It is always the case of a chain only  being as strong as it's weakest link?  I wondered if any forum members cleaned up, or like   me, came close, but have a  similar tale of...............if only?  

Pretty similar to mine! I had £20 on Norwich relegation with Fulham, Rotherham and Bradford to go up - returned about £3000! I remember listening to podcasts and hearing Bradford were a great shout as Derek Adams had taken Morecambe up etc! 

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6 minutes ago, maxjak said:

I don't understand your POV.........why is it a con ,  If it allows individuals to take out their bet early?       Some years back the option did not exist, and It is a facility that i have often used.  So I end up winning 70% of the bet, instead of losing everything. Please explain?

If i put a fiver on a 10/1 shot but then cash out for £20 I’ve effectively taken a 10/1 shot for odds of 4/1. With no cash out option I walk out with £50 but I don’t have the nerve and instead the bookie has saved £30

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1 minute ago, !james said:

Pretty similar to mine! I had £20 on Norwich relegation with Fulham, Rotherham and Bradford to go up - returned about £3000! I remember listening to podcasts and hearing Bradford were a great shout as Derek Adams had taken Morecambe up etc! 

I also did my research........and Bradford looked a good thing.....Doh!!

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13 minutes ago, maxjak said:

I don't understand your POV.........why is it a con ,  If it allows individuals to take out their bet early?       Some years back the option did not exist, and It is a facility that i have often used.  So I end up winning 70% of the bet, instead of losing everything. Please explain?

Because they pay you a price for the bet, and they pay you way under the actual price it should be. A huge con.

 

For instance if you now had an accumulator running onto Liverpool for the Champs Leagues for £1100, and Liverpool are 4/7 (effectively you have £700 running at 4/7 to get back £1100), the true value of the cashout would be where your bet is now so it would be £700. The actual cashout would probably be £550.

As for all of the cashouts you have taken where a selection has lost (so you have won), it comes down to turnover/amount of bets etc. Longterm you would be far better off by letting every bet run its' course rather than taking a bookies cashout, as you are not giving back money at a reduced price. Everything is in the bookies favour.

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2 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

If i put a fiver on a 10/1 shot but then cash out for £20 I’ve effectively taken a 10/1 shot for odds of 4/1. With no cash out option I walk out with £50 but I don’t have the nerve and instead the bookie has saved £30

In that situation, don't cash out?   If you use your noggin, then cashing out is to the punter's advantage, like anything, you need to use judgement.  Eg. If you have a four bet accumulator, and the first three have won, then you have an option to cash out if you are not confident about the fourth selection.......it is to the punters advantage IMHO.

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4 minutes ago, TheReds said:

Because they pay you a price for the bet, and they pay you way under the actual price it should be. A huge con.

 

For instance if you now had an accumulator running onto Liverpool for the Champs Leagues for £1100, and Liverpool are 4/7 (effectively you have £700 running at 4/7 to get back £1100), the true value of the cashout would be where your bet is now so it would be £700. The actual cashout would probably be £550.

As for all of the cashouts you have taken where a selection has lost (so you have won), it comes down to turnover/amount of bets etc. Longterm you would be far better off by letting every bet run its' course rather than taking a bookies cashout, as you are not giving back money at a reduced price. Everything is in the bookies favour.

Sorry, we will have to agree to disagree.  Bookies are not a charity, it is up to the individual to take advantage of any situation, if they see fit, and have the intelligence.  You do not HAVE to cash out....it is an option.  I have used cashing out many times to my advantage, it is far from a con.  I managed a bookies for 7 years..........and their are many ways bookies take advantage of the punters naivety .........IMHO cashing out is not one of them.

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5 minutes ago, maxjak said:

In that situation, don't cash out?   If you use your noggin, then cashing out is to the punter's advantage, like anything, you need to use judgement.  Eg. If you have a four bet accumulator, and the first three have won, then you have an option to cash out if you are not confident about the fourth selection.......it is to the punters advantage IMHO.

A lot of people don’t have the nerve though. In the same way I know plenty of people who will cash out pennies on their stake just to have another bet. 
 

As said above, a good cash out choice feels great at the time but over the course of time it will always favour the bookies 

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9 minutes ago, TheReds said:

. Everything is in the bookies favour.

Well not everything.  If the girl yesterday had taken the £93,000 the bookies would have been that amount down.  Obviously a cash out is to the bookies advantage if the bet would have gone on to win, but not if the bet would go on to lose.  So in the case of the individual, it’s swings and roundabouts.  Of course the bookies will expect to come out on top overall, but that’s the betting game for you.

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2 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

A lot of people don’t have the nerve though. In the same way I know plenty of people who will cash out pennies on their stake just to have another bet. 
 

As said above, a good cash out choice feels great at the time but over the course of time it will always favour the bookies 

In bookie's parlance.........if a person does that..........they are not using their wit's, and they are a Mug Punter. The option is there...........and.i will say it again......you do not HAVE to use it.

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2 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Sorry, we will have to agree to disagree.  Bookies are not a charity, it is up to the individual to take advantage of any situation, if they see fit, and have the intelligence.  You do not HAVE to cash out....it is an option.  I have used cashing out many times to my advantage, it is far from a con.  I managed a bookies for 7 years..........and their are many ways bookies take advantage of the punters naivety .........IMHO cashing out is not one of them.

I never said they were a charity. I never said it wasn't up to any individual whether they use a cashout facility or not, or whether you HAVE to cashout, and it isn't just an option. I have told you exactly why they are a con, you are getting paid way under the true odds - that is a fact, not made up, an actual fact.

If cashing out is not taking advantage, then why don't they pay out a cashout at the price you actually have whether your other selection wins or loses, or even with a small takeout rather than taking a huge slice from it?

Maybe con is strong word, but they are only offering a cashout because it makes THEM money and not the customer. Bookies are after mug/losing punters, they don't want people who can beat them, cashout is a prime example of free money for them week in, week out.

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23 minutes ago, maxjak said:

In that situation, don't cash out?   If you use your noggin, then cashing out is to the punter's advantage, like anything, you need to use judgement.  Eg. If you have a four bet accumulator, and the first three have won, then you have an option to cash out if you are not confident about the fourth selection.......it is to the punters advantage IMHO.

Emotionally you might be right, but mathematically over time you are wrong.

If you cash out you are losing value on the bet, and put very simplistically that's how bookies operate - not on whether you win or lose.

 

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8 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Well not everything.  If the girl yesterday had taken the £93,000 the bookies would have been that amount down.  Obviously a cash out is to the bookies advantage if the bet would have gone on to win, but not if the bet would go on to lose.  So in the case of the individual, it’s swings and roundabouts.  Of course the bookies will expect to come out on top overall, but that’s the betting game for you.

I would doubt that bet in the first place due to its "related contingency" angle. In a few weeks time try adding that same bet (or with man city/United etc) to a betslip and see what price you get, then try and place it. You will not be allowed to place the bet, you maybe able to get a "special" price for a quadruple/treble etc, but you won't get the prices advertised as singles and then all multiplied up as that bet is showing.

Of course it is in the bookies favour, they know by giving a cashout (whatever the amount) they will be making a huge amount of money from them because they are basically betting the punter below the actual odds (which they have already taken a percentage out of). No different than Casinos with their edge due to percentages of the true odds, it is all about turnover, whether that be high rollers or small fish, they will not, and cannot lose longterm (not including cheats/card counters etc). It's all about the Maths.

 

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1 minute ago, MarcusX said:

Emotionally you might be right, but mathematically over time you are wrong.

If you cash out you are losing value on the bet, and put very simplistically that's how bookies operate - not on whether you win or lose.

Mathematically over time for the bookies maybe, as they have millions of bets placed, but not necessarily for the punter.

It'll take the woman above a LOT of her £100 bets to make up that £93k cash out she turned down. In exceptional circumstances like that she'd be up, even if she "lost value" on the bet. People aren't betting out to infinity here!

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17 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Well not everything.  If the girl yesterday had taken the £93,000 the bookies would have been that amount down.  Obviously a cash out is to the bookies advantage if the bet would have gone on to win, but not if the bet would go on to lose.  So in the case of the individual, it’s swings and roundabouts.  Of course the bookies will expect to come out on top overall, but that’s the betting game for you.

Yes but at the time, the value of that bet was (very likely) worth much more than £93k (if you'd been able to bet on the outcome in the moment). The bookies would have balanced their books on a much larger risk, that's why their able to entice you into a cash out

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1 minute ago, IAmNick said:

Mathematically over time for the bookies maybe, as they have millions of bets placed, but not necessarily for the punter.

It'll take the woman above a LOT of her £100 bets to make up that £93k cash out she turned down. In exceptional circumstances like that she'd be up, even if she "lost value" on the bet. People aren't betting out to infinity here!

Yes fair point, especially in this extreme case! I was trying to make the point though that mathematically it's not in your interest to cash out - but in circumstances like this it's very much a personal situation. I'd have definitely cashed out on this bet especially as I don't think Liverpool were even winning when City were losing. Me and my mate both said about putting money on City at 2-0 down, was a bit tipsy though and before you knew it they'd turned it around!

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3 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Mathematically over time for the bookies maybe, as they have millions of bets placed, but not necessarily for the punter.

It'll take the woman above a LOT of her £100 bets to make up that £93k cash out she turned down. In exceptional circumstances like that she'd be up, even if she "lost value" on the bet. People aren't betting out to infinity here!

She is still being ripped off whether it wins or loses. This is also one extreme case - if it is even actually true.

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5 minutes ago, TheReds said:

She is still being ripped off whether it wins or loses. This is also one extreme case - if it is even actually true.

It's not a ripoff though. The bookies are in it to make a profit, they're not a charity.

By saying to the customer "you can cash out for a little under market value if you're not so confident on your remaining bets" then they are merely providing an option that, in the long run, would work out best for them but may also be appreciated by the customer in an individual situation.

It's no more of a ripoff than the fact that they would never offer you evens on a 50/50 bet. The odds are always stacked in the bookies favour.

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1 minute ago, richwwtk said:

It's not a ripoff though. The bookies are in it to make a profit, they're not a charity.

By saying to the customer "you can cash out for a little under market value if you're not so confident on your remaining bets" then they are merely providing an option that, in the long run, would work out best for them but may also be appreciated by the customer in an individual situation.

It's no more of a ripoff than the fact that they would never offer you evens on a 50/50 bet. The odds are always stacked in the bookies favour.

Sorry but that is wrong. 

A 50:50 bet would/should be priced up at 10/11 each of 2. That is fair enough as they do have to make money, pay staff, shops etc etc. If you think they are having the same takeout of cashout bets then i'm afraid you are completely wrong, as they certainly don't offer a "little under market value". 

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Had too many 98th minute equalisers when not cashing out, all depends how many of your teams are only 1 goal up going into the 90th minute, I’m not greedy so I’m happy to win anything 

Had a £5 free bet and did Fulham, Stockport & Sunderland for £1200, I hate Lee Johnson

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51 minutes ago, richwwtk said:

It's not a ripoff though. The bookies are in it to make a profit, they're not a charity.

By saying to the customer "you can cash out for a little under market value if you're not so confident on your remaining bets" then they are merely providing an option that, in the long run, would work out best for them but may also be appreciated by the customer in an individual situation.

It's no more of a ripoff than the fact that they would never offer you evens on a 50/50 bet. The odds are always stacked in the bookies favour.

Just went on PP and placed 4 random horses in a yankee. Staked £11, cashout within a second of placing it a whopping, humungous £5.71 (and no price changes which would effect the cashout). That definitely isn't a little bit under market value.

Assume this screenshot will work:

PP.jpg

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2 hours ago, TomF said:

Follow the thread!  But at 5.35pm yesterday she was offered £95k and turned it down.  Some people questioning if it was a complete stunt by Betfair thou.. 

no way would you not accept £95k, even when I heard Man City were 2-0 down I still thought it wasn’t over, and I was right!  If they did turn it down then it’s pure greed

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