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Facing newly promoted sides early doors


Major Isewater
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I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning.

I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst.

So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start.

 

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1 minute ago, Major Isewater said:

I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning.

I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst.

So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start.

 

I don’t think there’s any supposedly ‘easy’ fixtures in the Championship next season. 

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I've long held the theory that promoted sides are a tough way to start the season. They finished the previous year on a high, all their fans are up for it and there will be plenty of good will and encouragement around.
All games are tough in the Championship, but that added buzz for a promoted side gives another thing to get over

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Whenever we play Sunderland it will be tough.

They have a very good manager with a decent track record at this level, are probably going to spend a fair bit & will have the highest attendances in the division.

I see them as finishing top half easily & to be honest don’t think it makes a bit of difference when we play them.

The other 2 promoted sides are going to have a completely different priority next season & in one case staying up would be a huge achievement.

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It's getting annoying that EFL keep putting us against newly promoted sides in our first home game.

Sunderland 2022/23

Blackpool  2021/22

Coventry 2020/21

Wigan 2016/17

Millwall 2010/11

Not only that in most cases as well we always seem to play other promoted sides 3 or 4 games in. 

 

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32 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Whenever we play Sunderland it will be tough.

They have a very good manager with a decent track record at this level, are probably going to spend a fair bit & will have the highest attendances in the division.

I see them as finishing top half easily & to be honest don’t think it makes a bit of difference when we play them.

The other 2 promoted sides are going to have a completely different priority next season & in one case staying up would be a huge achievement.

Is this perhaps a bit of an overreaction to them being a 'big club'?

Finishing "top half easily" would be an absolutely incredible achievement for any promoted team. I don't follow League 1 closely at all, but I gather that their promotion was far from comfortable - bear in mind they only finished 5th.

I appreciate Sunderland have good long term potential, but in the short term they're really not a team we should be fearing IMO.

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2 minutes ago, 2015 said:

It's getting annoying that EFL keep putting us against newly promoted sides in our first home game.

Sunderland 2022/23

Blackpool  2021/22

Coventry 2020/21

Wigan 2016/17

Millwall 2010/11

Not only that in most cases as well we always seem to play other promoted sides 3 or 4 games in. 

 

Agreed. i would much rather play one of the ‘parachute’ teams first game. better to play them before they get into their stride. 

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Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win?

I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them?

I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks.

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6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win?

I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them?

I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks.

:yawn:

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24 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win?

I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them?

I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks.

It didn't seem to bother Sheffield Wednesday too much when they played the runaway League One champions in the opening game of 2015-16...

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3 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning.

I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst.

So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start.

 

Don't remember it doing us much good when we came up from League one last time, most times I left the gate shell shocked at yet another defeat as with every attack the opposition seemed to score and every mistake was punished, it really showed to me the gulf between League one and the Championship we will be fine next season would not be surprised if we shocked a few so called experts. 

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Right, I couldn't find any articles or data online, so I did it myself over lunch. Just looking at the results of the newly promoted sides over the first 6 games of the season for the past 7 seasons - i.e. from our own promotion until now. A small sample but I'm not exactly operating with state funding here.

So, across the 126 games that I looked at the newly promoted sides accumulated, between them, a grand total of 132 points, at an average of 6.29 points each (mode of 5). Barely more than 1 point per game on average. 16 of these 132 points were gained in matches played between newly promoted sides (6 games). So, out of 120 matches against teams in either the Championship or Premier League in the prior season, newly promoted sides have accumulated 116 points, or fewer than 1 per game. Essentially, the most likely result in an early game between an 'old' team and a newly promoted side, is that the 'old' team wins.

"But City are classic City, we always lose to them!" I hear you cry. Bollocks. Over that same period we've played a newly promoted side 6 times. We won 4 and drew 2 of those. That includes 2 wins and 1 draw in opening day fixtures.

There is the odd outlier of course. In 2019/20 Charlton Athletic went unbeaten across their first 6, winning 4 and drawing 2 games to have a huge 14 points from their first 6 matches. They finished 22nd and went down.

The past two seasons have been particularly brutal starts for the new boys. In those 36 matches newly promoted teams have won only 4 games, and in 2020/21 Wycombe managed to lose all of their first 6 games.

So bring on the new boys. Bring us some points early doors and let's get the party started.

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4 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning.

I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst.

So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start.

 

Definitely. Play relegated sides in your opening games and promoted sides after about 8 weeks (ideal world).
And while I’m here: how can an equitable fixture computer come up with Norwich (a) on Wednesday and Burnley (a) on Saturday? 

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27 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Right, I couldn't find any articles or data online, so I did it myself over lunch. Just looking at the results of the newly promoted sides over the first 6 games of the season for the past 7 seasons - i.e. from our own promotion until now. A small sample but I'm not exactly operating with state funding here.

So, across the 126 games that I looked at the newly promoted sides accumulated, between them, a grand total of 132 points, at an average of 6.29 points each (mode of 5). Barely more than 1 point per game on average. 16 of these 132 points were gained in matches played between newly promoted sides (6 games). So, out of 120 matches against teams in either the Championship or Premier League in the prior season, newly promoted sides have accumulated 116 points, or fewer than 1 per game. Essentially, the most likely result in an early game between an 'old' team and a newly promoted side, is that the 'old' team wins.

"But City are classic City, we always lose to them!" I hear you cry. Bollocks. Over that same period we've played a newly promoted side 6 times. We won 4 and drew 2 of those. That includes 2 wins and 1 draw in opening day fixtures.

There is the odd outlier of course. In 2019/20 Charlton Athletic went unbeaten across their first 6, winning 4 and drawing 2 games to have a huge 14 points from their first 6 matches. They finished 22nd and went down.

The past two seasons have been particularly brutal starts for the new boys. In those 36 matches newly promoted teams have won only 4 games, and in 2020/21 Wycombe managed to lose all of their first 6 games.

So bring on the new boys. Bring us some points early doors and let's get the party started.

Good work Mr Ajax, thank you.

My feeling from watching these types of match are that they resemble cup matches where either the energy and motivation overcome the skill of the established team or the ‘ underdogs ‘ are undone by a moment of superior skill which decides the affair. 
I think it is a big test of attitude for the team that is expected to win. 
As you say bring it on.

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45 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

Good work Mr Ajax, thank you.

My feeling from watching these types of match are that they resemble cup matches where either the energy and motivation overcome the skill of the established team or the ‘ underdogs ‘ are undone by a moment of superior skill which decides the affair. 
I think it is a big test of attitude for the team that is expected to win. 
As you say bring it on.

Cheers, out of interest I just did a quick comparison of the same thing but looking at the sides that come down from the Prem. 

They're (unsurprisingly) quite a bit better. On average they take 9.24 points from all of their opening 6 games. They took 194 points from the equivalent 126 games. There were again 6 games between them, and that accounted for 17 of those points, so it is 177 from 120 games against 'old' and newly promoted teams in the Champ. An average of 1.48 points per game, compare that to the average 0.97 that the promoted teams take. It's a huge difference. Again, of course you've got teams like Huddersfield in 2019/20 who came down and could only take 1 point form their first half dozen games, but generally these teams are good for double figures from the first 6.

Again, how do City do? Well one thing we can say is that we've played relegated sides less frequently over the past 7 seasons. Only the 5 games, 3 of which were in the 2016/17 season. We've won 2 and lost 3 of those, so it's about even. We've fared much, much better against promoted sides than against relegated sides.

One interesting thing that does jump out though is the very first fixture. Over the past 7 seasons (so in 21 games), relegated Premier League sides have won 6 , drawn 5, and lost 10 of their opening games. In the next round of fixtures that switches to won to won 9, drawn 11, lost 1. The next four rounds are much more like that second round than the first. So perhaps there's something to be said for playing a relegated side on the very first day. Also of note is that in the past 7 seasons we've never seen two relegated sides play each other on either opening day or in the second round of games.

So, perhaps next season we should remember this and hope for a relegated side on the opening day, then 3 games against the promoted teams, and then two others?

Alternatively we can say that past performance by ancient teams cannot possibly predict future gains, and I've wasted two hours of my day.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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8 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning.

I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst.

So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start.

 

I agree with major and even liked this thread.I would prefer to play clubs at our level so to speak early doors.

However remember us romping the league and Mickey Mouse cup under Mr C.
We struggled big time the next season.We were used to winning  and suddenly we looked very ordinary.mMomentum/ confidence is huge imho.

Anyhow whoever we play cmon u reds 

 

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