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Two weeks out, where are we?


Silvio Dante

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An interesting view on the upcoming player situ at the club. I would hope for a better season this year but not by much. Still think a good defensive midfielder, 20 goal striker and another central defender would be a must weather signed or loaned . And be good timing to have before the start of the season. Might be interesting who the premier clubs release and loans available there. As long as we don't go down I always happy. Been watching for to long now to have those promotion hopes every season ?

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I think we'll see progress this season. I think the key (an obvious one!) is reducing the amount of goals conceded. For the first time in many seasons we have good cover at right back or wing back. We've signed a really good player in Naismith. Klose has re signed. So the defence is looking better already. My concerns is the lack of a dynamic midfield player and we're a bit one dimensional up front with Chris Martin, this is despite him having a wonderful last season.  I don't think Bell and Conway are at the right level as yet.

Perhaps the current view would be different with Semenyo, Scott & Kalas still to come back. It will be interesting to see how NP incorporates the WSM strike force as he is favouring a three at the back so something will have to give.

Looking at the squad numbering I don't expect any more incomings. 

I think we still need to try to move on one or two though.

 

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20 minutes ago, Swede said:

I think we'll see progress this season. I think the key (an obvious one!) is reducing the amount of goals conceded. For the first time in many seasons we have good cover at right back or wing back. We've signed a really good player in Naismith. Klose has re signed. So the defence is looking better already. My concerns is the lack of a dynamic midfield player and we're a bit one dimensional up front with Chris Martin, this is despite him having a wonderful last season.  I don't think Bell and Conway are at the right level as yet.

Perhaps the current view would be different with Semenyo, Scott & Kalas still to come back. It will be interesting to see how NP incorporates the WSM strike force as he is favouring a three at the back so something will have to give.

Looking at the squad numbering I don't expect any more incomings. 

I think we still need to try to move on one or two though.

 

Well Palmer, Bakinson and Benarous are gone as options and I feel we need at least one more in. The Massengo situation needs sorting asap IMO because it could be hindering potential transfers. 

Regarding Bell and Conway, I believe it was mentioned during the Portsmouth friendly that those two overall were top in the fitness aspects of the pre season camp. This could help their chances of sticking around the squad unless we get more in but would be good to see them get first team football in league 1 or 2.

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Honestly think we can make top 10 and even the back of my mind says play offs. We proved in some games last season we can play well, we can grind our performances and even excel. Good recruitment this summer and a manager who has spent time in this league languishing only to turn things round eventually. Have the faith. 

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We have some good players but are far from a good team. We lack midfield dominance which puts our defence under constant pressure and from which it cannot constantly repel. The lack of midfield dominance also breaks the link from defence to attack.

So unless we improve that area we will be same old same old, maybe even worse if we dont hang on to our best.

There are some strong teams in this division see us bottom half at best and struggling to avoid bottom six most of the time.

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9 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

If a side, at this level, had:

- A 20 goal championship striker last season who had the season of his life last season and is pretty unlikely to repeat those heroics.

- A central midfielder who is worth £20m assuming this is Scott, he's not going for £20m anytime soon.

- A beast of a CF who can win games by himself Semenyo? Improved last season, but he's a way from doing this consistently.

- The L2 POTY - from bloody right back! L2 to Champ is a big step up.

- The best performer from a top 6 side last year Sure 

- A proven international CB Sure

- A CM who when he’s in the team increases points by 50% Sure 

- A gk proven at this level Sure

Of the 8 things you list, we had 6 of them last season. We finished 17th and no one can really argue that that was a false position. So it's logical that all improvement is predicated on the other 2 things - being an older CB from a team that failed to get promoted, and a RB from L2.

Last season was easy to call. This one is much much harder. If we are going to get top 6, then we pretty much need to play as we did towards the end of last season, but for the whole term.

I still have major concerns over the number of players in the prime of their physical fitness and ability. We've not got a single player who is 26, 27, or 28 years old. The 3 that are 25 are O'Leary, Williams and Vyner. The 2 that are 29 are Bentley and Kalas. So realistically we've got two first choice outfield players who are between the ages of 24 and 29.

That's not a good sign.

I'm hopeful that the players brought in will be better for us than those that have left. However I don't think any are of the type or calibre to turn a team that was fairly 17th into a top 6 team.

Top half would be a huge success IMO. Anything above 8th and the whole squad can be knighted.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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8 hours ago, AshtonGreat said:

Potentially in the future. The poster mentioned a centre mid though?

Scott. Not a RWB this season thankfully but a CM. I expect us to eventually see a Scott/Williams axis in the middle

8 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Wow - a very detailed and analytical post SD - fair play to you. One quick point though - you dismissed Hull City as being ‘unused to this division’ - yet Hull City has been in the championship for four out of the last five seasons and eleven out of the last seventeen seasons ... wouldn’t that track record make them very ‘used to this division’ ?!

Good point - I was more going for the angle of with Arveladze the signings are players unused to this division. They’ve lost Lewis-Potter and have brought in some Turkish super lig players. May be great, but likely to be some bedding in time

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Still short in the centre of midfield for me. Im still not fully convinced James is the answer and as we all know as great a player as William is his injury record is still very hit and miss.

If we can get in a real hardworking nasty and proven centre mid then i will have a bit more hope but as things stand i cant see us finishing anywhere above lower mid-table. 
 

Such an unpredictable division though anything can happen. I’ve got full faith in Pearson to get us to where we all want to be though if given time but I think next season will be a step to far to mount a serious promotion challenge.

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8 hours ago, Lrrr said:

I'm not saying its 'wrong' as such, but just shining a light on it for awareness so its not taken as Ross County/Shrewsbury probably paying a bigger chunk for each player for example. 

Maybe I didn’t make it clear, but that’s not what I meant.

The big savings this summer have been moving Palmer & O’Dowda on, losing Cundy, Janneh & Britton also helps & I’m assuming the 2 clubs that have our players on loan are making some sort of contribution, which also reduces costs.

I doubt Sykes, Wilson or Bajic are on much, when compared to Palmer or O’Dowda so that’s why I think overall it is a smaller figure at present.

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10 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I think finishing 12th or above would be progress.

This. Top half of the table would be fine. Sort out the remaining high earners and blood some more youngsters. Give some of the young lads a season at L1/L2 level to blossom, then go again the season after.

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Don’t think I’ve seen any mention of starting on a points deduction ??‍♂️
 

Not worth getting too excited or being too ambitious yet.

This goes for a few other teams in the same league as well. 
 

Just depends if the EFL can pull their finger out on the matter as it has gone a bit quiet.

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10 hours ago, BLRed said:

I have faith in Nige, jury is out on Gould however imo. We haven’t addressed the biggest issues in the squad, the high wages, unwanted players and contractual issues.

massengo contract or sale

kalas contract or sale

Bentley contract or sale

wells contract or sale

bakinson sale

vyner sale

all the above listed purely from our fragile financial standing. Surely should all be priority?

 

 

 

This. Nail on head.

Let’s not forget Dasilva who is also on final year of contract.

Things are happening behind the scenes thou, you don’t hear everything in the press…..

Edited by brad blit
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I think that our strongest starting 11 that features Semenyo, Scott, Kalas  & a fit Williams is definitely capable of a top half finish.  My reservations about this season come from our strength in depth beyond the best 11. Currently, if Klose, Naismith or Atkinson get injured we have to go with Vyner, Towler or Idenhen with the latter 2 unproven and the first not good enough imo.  I think we lack a really energetic midfielder with pace as King, Williams and James are not dynamic enough to play together.  That leaves Scott & HNM who actually did very well when played together.  But again beyond that who is there? Owers, Kadji whilst having potential, they won’t play so need to go out on loan. 
 

Attack is another issue & who can play the Chris Martin role as let’s face it he’s not going to play 46 games or if he is then we are in trouble.  I rate Martin but he needs to have his workload reduced.  Also, in the absence of Semenyo we lose the fear factor of pace and whilst both Conway and Bell are going to be good players are they ready for the now?
 

Long winded way of saying we will be fine if injuries and suspensions are minimised but I do not believe we have the quality in sufficient numbers in our squad if we encounter problems. A CB, CM & CF coming in over the next few weeks would leave me feeling more confident.   To give context, we named a 31 man squad which includes 4 GKs, Benarous who is out until Xmas, Kadji, Owers, Pearson, Towler, Idenhen, Bell & Conway. I hope a couple of these could have a breakthrough season but to me we lack depth.  

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15 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

I think that our strongest starting 11 that features Semenyo, Scott, Kalas  & a fit Williams is definitely capable of a top half finish.  My reservations about this season come from our strength in depth beyond the best 11. Currently, if Klose, Naismith or Atkinson get injured we have to go with Vyner, Towler or Idenhen with the latter 2 unproven and the first not good enough imo.  I think we lack a really energetic midfielder with pace as King, Williams and James are not dynamic enough to play together.  That leaves Scott & HNM who actually did very well when played together.  But again beyond that who is there? Owers, Kadji whilst having potential, they won’t play so need to go out on loan. 
 

Attack is another issue & who can play the Chris Martin role as let’s face it he’s not going to play 46 games or if he is then we are in trouble.  I rate Martin but he needs to have his workload reduced.  Also, in the absence of Semenyo we lose the fear factor of pace and whilst both Conway and Bell are going to be good players are they ready for the now?
 

Long winded way of saying we will be fine if injuries and suspensions are minimised but I do not believe we have the quality in sufficient numbers in our squad if we encounter problems. A CB, CM & CF coming in over the next few weeks would leave me feeling more confident.   To give context, we named a 31 man squad which includes 4 GKs, Benarous who is out until Xmas, Kadji, Owers, Pearson, Towler, Idenhen, Bell & Conway. I hope a couple of these could have a breakthrough season but to me we lack depth.  

Not long winded at all- a very fair assessment and pretty much how I see it. 
A fully fit City starting eleven is a match for any team in the league but as you say that is unlikely to be the case.

I am thinking we will finish somewhere between 10th-15th but with hopefully some more positive signs for the future, in respect to more work to ease our financial situation, more of the younger players getting the chance to show what they can do, and continued good work in scouting the free transfer and bargain market.

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34 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

I think that our strongest starting 11 that features Semenyo, Scott, Kalas  & a fit Williams is definitely capable of a top half finish.  My reservations about this season come from our strength in depth beyond the best 11. Currently, if Klose, Naismith or Atkinson get injured we have to go with Vyner, Towler or Idenhen with the latter 2 unproven and the first not good enough imo.  I think we lack a really energetic midfielder with pace as King, Williams and James are not dynamic enough to play together.  That leaves Scott & HNM who actually did very well when played together.  But again beyond that who is there? Owers, Kadji whilst having potential, they won’t play so need to go out on loan. 
 

Attack is another issue & who can play the Chris Martin role as let’s face it he’s not going to play 46 games or if he is then we are in trouble.  I rate Martin but he needs to have his workload reduced.  Also, in the absence of Semenyo we lose the fear factor of pace and whilst both Conway and Bell are going to be good players are they ready for the now?
 

Long winded way of saying we will be fine if injuries and suspensions are minimised but I do not believe we have the quality in sufficient numbers in our squad if we encounter problems. A CB, CM & CF coming in over the next few weeks would leave me feeling more confident.   To give context, we named a 31 man squad which includes 4 GKs, Benarous who is out until Xmas, Kadji, Owers, Pearson, Towler, Idenhen, Bell & Conway. I hope a couple of these could have a breakthrough season but to me we lack depth.  

Yep, when fully fit we essentially run a pretty old first XI. Scott, Wilson, and Semenyo bring it down, but you've got Bentley, Klose, Naismith, Kalas, Weimann, Martin, James, all 29 or older. Williams and Dasilva are a good age but still relatively youthful.

Any injuries or suspensions and it's 19, 20, 21 year olds coming in. It's poorly balanced. I accept it will take years and windows to address, but I think a lot of fans are blinded to this fundamental structural weakness of our squad.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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1 hour ago, ashton_fan said:

I think we'll be in the top 10 on results but may be lower due to a points deduction which we may get if we don't manage to sell one of our big players. There is the potential to get in the play-offs if we have luck with injuries and don't get penalised by the EFL.

I honestly do not think we will get a points deduction.  The way the EFL work, they’ll have seen our 22/23 projections and had they been of concern we’d know about it.

Completely prepared to eat my hat on this, but we’ve signed four players (Bajic, Wilson, Sykes and Naismith, plus re-signed Klose), and I don’t think we’d have done that with a points deduction looming.

The cost base for this year will be lower than last too.  We are moving the finances in the right direction.

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12 hours ago, GrahamC said:

This is such a Football Manager response.

Tell me, what do you if no one wants to buy any of these players & they are unwilling to sign new contracts or we don’t want to give them a new one?

So far we have moved on big wage earners in Palmer & O’Dowda plus lower earners in Cundy, Janneh & Britton.

Presumably Shrewsbury & Ross County are making contributions to Taylor Moore & Owura Edwards’ wages too.

By my estimate therefore our wage bill has decreased, not by much, but it is going in the right direction.

Do you honestly think we have turned down bids for the players you list?

Saying “sell” is so much easier than achieving it.

You are right but I think you can excuse the logic. Pre covid they would have been valid points imo. A lot of the players mentioned come in for high fees so while letting them go for nothing would help, it would still leave us unable to recruit replacements most likely as we’d still be paying towards the fees. Think most regulars on here get that but probably not everyone

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5 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

You are right but I think you can excuse the logic. Pre covid they would have been valid points imo. A lot of the players mentioned come in for high fees so while letting them go for nothing would help, it would still leave us unable to recruit replacements most likely as we’d still be paying towards the fees. Think most regulars on here get that but probably not everyone

Just adding a subtlety, Palmer and Nagy are the only players we’ve let go in recent times that have resulted in a “transfer loss”, all others value in the books was £0, e.g. Diedhiou, Walsh, O’Dowda, etc when they left us.  Okay, Rory Holden might’ve cost is “pence” but that’s it.

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Without going into the merits and demerits of the squad which has been done to death in the thread, and with the caveat that business is not finished in terms of transfers in or out, I see us as a lower mid-table team.

If we take the 24 teams and split them into three groups of eight, I would see us in the middle eight towards the middle or just below - 12th - 14th.

I think there are teams much stronger than us who will fill the top eight places with WBA and Norwich leading the way.

If we end up 12th or thereabouts with some decent football along the way it'll be progress and good enough for me.

 

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4 hours ago, Shuffle said:

I think that our strongest starting 11 that features Semenyo, Scott, Kalas  & a fit Williams is definitely capable of a top half finish.  My reservations about this season come from our strength in depth beyond the best 11. Currently, if Klose, Naismith or Atkinson get injured we have to go with Vyner, Towler or Idenhen with the latter 2 unproven and the first not good enough imo.  I think we lack a really energetic midfielder with pace as King, Williams and James are not dynamic enough to play together.  That leaves Scott & HNM who actually did very well when played together.  But again beyond that who is there? Owers, Kadji whilst having potential, they won’t play so need to go out on loan. 
 

Attack is another issue & who can play the Chris Martin role as let’s face it he’s not going to play 46 games or if he is then we are in trouble.  I rate Martin but he needs to have his workload reduced.  Also, in the absence of Semenyo we lose the fear factor of pace and whilst both Conway and Bell are going to be good players are they ready for the now?
 

Long winded way of saying we will be fine if injuries and suspensions are minimised but I do not believe we have the quality in sufficient numbers in our squad if we encounter problems. A CB, CM & CF coming in over the next few weeks would leave me feeling more confident.   To give context, we named a 31 man squad which includes 4 GKs, Benarous who is out until Xmas, Kadji, Owers, Pearson, Towler, Idenhen, Bell & Conway. I hope a couple of these could have a breakthrough season but to me we lack depth.  

I think all that is fair, but we are paying the price for an imbalanced squad, both in terms of age & wage rates.

At the back most people think we’ll start with Naismith, Klose & Atkinson but presumably Kalas will be fit enough to start the season as a sub? Re Vyner I honestly think we are keeping him around until Kalas is back, then he’ll move on & we’ll bring a further CB in.

In midfield I wonder if Bakinson’s departure would free up the funds for a loan? We do have 2 senior central midfielders & 2 young but relatively experienced ones, plus King in an emergency but I do wonder if we’ll look to add one now.

Up top I share your concern re Martin & if Semenyo does stay I can see him having to play more of the CF role at times because Martin isn’t going to replicate last season’s 45 appearances.

Wells will probably get more opportunities as a result, assuming he’s still here in September, of course.

I can see Conway being a squad player but expect Bell to go out on loan.

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23 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

Preamble: I said last season that I thought this year we’d mount a promotion challenge. So there is confirmation bias here.

There are two weeks to go to the new season. Day one I expect us to line up Bentley-Wilson-DaSilva-Klose-Atkinson-Naismith-Williams-James-Weimann-Wells-Martin

That’s at least a mid table side.

We have a (projected) £20m striker and midfielder to come in and an international centre back, together with HNM. Depth is also there that wasn’t at RB (Tanner), CF (Conway with the extra year), MF (Sykes).

So, again, I ask why we can’t do it? And I look at the competition…

Rotherham - lost players, fall into too good for L1/not good enough for champ

Birmingham - In crisis

Reading - Building a great side for 2014-15

Wigan - Untried

Sunderland - Will be typical Neil side - nasty, hard to beat, but mid table 

Blackpool - Appleton shows budget cuts - in trouble 

Luton - can argue decent signings but from relegated side. Overachieved, unlikely to do so again

Burnley - Massive transition, both players and style

Millwall - lost best player. Mid table at best

Hull - untried team, unused to division. Shit keeper.

Watford - who the hell knows

Boro - expect to be up there. Solid and decent manager

Sheff Utd - transition again. Poor manager, coming to end of cycle

Norwich - Yeah, they might be good

WBA - two strong signings at this level, experienced manager, Dike fit - should be good

Swansea - if in 2022 Joe Allen is your hope, you give up

Stoke - see Joe Allen and read Aden Flint

Cardiff - lots of quantity, questionable quality. Rookie manager to knit it together.

Huddersfield - see Luton. Lost manager, overachieved and unlikely to hit again

Coventry - should be solid and playoff contenders 

Blackburn - lost Lenihan, likely to lose Brereton - transition

Preston - a whole heap of nothing. Signings reflect that

QPR - meh

 

So, I reckon with two weeks out I’m seeing nothing to change my opinion. I’d ask this. If a side, at this level, had:

- A 20 goal championship striker last season

- A central midfielder who is worth £20m

- A beast of a CF who can win games by himself

- The L2 POTY - from bloody right back!

- The best performer from a top 6 side last year

- A proven international CB

- A CM who when he’s in the team increases points by 50%
 

- A gk proven at this level

 Then I’d want that.

So, why not?

Well now I'm all.hyped for the new season I've been trying so hard to ignore till it literally starts 

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I believe we will be a lower mid-table team with the emphasis on lower.

The reasons being:

  • Pearson isn't a very good manager.  I'm always surprised by how many think he's good looking at his record from 10 years ago whilst overlooking what is directly in front of them.
  • Our defence isn't very good.  People talk about the international Kalas but he has been responsible for some awful defending. Plus, if you think Dasilva is the answer... ?
  • Our midfield isn't very good.  We've got some good midfielders.  However, they are normally injured and will be injured again for much of this season.
  • Our forward line isn't very good.  Weimann had a fantastic season but I'm not convinced he can repeat that. Plus, Martin doesn't have the legs to test defences, and Wells is average.  Semenyo is the real-deal but the season momentum will be gone by the time he is back

Let's look back next May and see who gets this right. I hope the team is 10 places above where I think we will finish.

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19 minutes ago, Chivs said:

I believe we will be a lower mid-table team with the emphasis on lower.

The reasons being:

  • Pearson isn't a very good manager.  I'm always surprised by how many think he's good looking at his record from 10 years ago whilst overlooking what is directly in front of them.
  • Our defence isn't very good.  People talk about the international Kalas but he has been responsible for some awful defending. Plus, if you think Dasilva is the answer... ?
  • Our midfield isn't very good.  We've got some good midfielders.  However, they are normally injured and will be injured again for much of this season.
  • Our forward line isn't very good.  Weimann had a fantastic season but I'm not convinced he can repeat that. Plus, Martin doesn't have the legs to test defences, and Wells is average.  Semenyo is the real-deal but the season momentum will be gone by the time he is back

Let's look back next May and see who gets this right. I hope the team is 10 places above where I think we will finish.

OK, that’s fair enough.

But, apart from having a rubbish defence, midfield and attack, all managed by someone who is only a patch on what he used to be 10 years ago, why are you so pessimistic about the upcoming season?

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1 minute ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

OK, that’s fair enough.

But, apart from having a rubbish defence, midfield and attack, all managed by someone who is only a patch on what he used to be 10 years ago, why are you so pessimistic about the upcoming season?

I'm a City fan.  It's the hope that kills me...so I'm giving up on hope.

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