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Will bottom half mean the end of Pearson?


Top Robin

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1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

If we finish 13th or 21st both are bottom half but they will quite different seasons. Just asking about ‘bottom half’ is an odd one 

Spot on.

I think we can finish slightly higher than 13th but also would understand an argument that saw us finishing there this season as making progress.

Next summer will see us at the end of the contract cycle of virtually the entire squad, so whether it is Pearson or someone else, the scope for change then is greater.

OP is an obvious troll, though.

Edited by GrahamC
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9 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Spot on.

I think we can finish slightly higher than 13th but also would understand an argument that saw us finishing there this season as making progress.

Next summer will see us at the end of the contract cycle of virtually the entire squad, so whether it is Pearson or someone else, the scope for change then is greater.

OP is an obvious troll, though.

When you're in a development phase (which we very much still are, IMO) I don't think it's as simple as judging on league position, either.

If we're being hypothetical about it, with no Semenyo and a relatively new-look defence (Naismith and Wilson in, Cundy out, Kalas injured) the first couple of months could be tough.

But then, post-World Cup, we could end up building some momentum, really tighten up at the back, see one or two more academy graduates come through and still end up finishing 14th - but feel like we've laid a platform for a genuine promotion push in 2023-24.

It's just never as black and white as people think/want it to be!

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3 hours ago, Top Robin said:

Just wondering 

Think it’ll depend on the context. I remember comments from JL and RG that implied they thought we should be doing better relative to wage budget.

I think, like Cotterill, Pearson probably isn’t the easiest for the likes of JL to work with. I could imagine difficult conversations happen fairly regularly.

I think if we do similarly to last season or there appears to be no improvement.. it wouldn’t surprise me if they get rid.

I think we’ve recruited well and (so far) have kept our exciting young players.. so I’m cautiously optimistic about this season.

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Ignoring league position for a moment.

I think if we were to continue to concede goals in the last minute, I think some fans will put pressure on Pearson early on.

We need to progress in terms of league positions but we also need to crack not letting in late goals.

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27 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Think it’ll depend on the context. I remember comments from JL and RG that implied they thought we should be doing better relative to wage budget.

This is still true. The Club - ie the Board - expect/hope for a play off "challenge", whatever that exactly means. Gould wants the pounds to be on the pitch, and believes that by structuring wages properly, and then making sure the biggest earners are playing, we can reasonably expect a top half finish and a decent tilt at the top 6.

Personally I don't agree with that method of determining 'success', and think this is an overly optimistic aim that doesn't fully appreciate where we are starting from.

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4 hours ago, Monkeh said:

Why? We were in a mess, with over paid players on big contracts that doesnt get sorted in 1,2 or even 3 seasons, it gets sorted only when those players leave, sadly that's at the end of the contract because they are generally overpaid

I’m sure we were told by Pearson himself it would take 3 years. 
 

I agree we have been in a mess, but there are no players on 5 year contracts so just don’t understand why people think it could take that long . We have seen a number of times where clubs in dire positions have improved rapidly when they have the right coaching staff in place (Barnsley, Huddersfield, Coventry, Forest to name a couple) 

We have to be aiming for top half this year, and we have to be aiming for top 6 in year 3 

Jury is still out for me on Pearson. This is a huge season for him we have to say an improvement on a number of things 

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1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Think it’ll depend on the context. I remember comments from JL and RG that implied they thought we should be doing better relative to wage budget.

I think, like Cotterill, Pearson probably isn’t the easiest for the likes of JL to work with. I could imagine difficult conversations happen fairly regularly.

I think if we do similarly to last season or there appears to be no improvement.. it wouldn’t surprise me if they get rid.

I think we’ve recruited well and (so far) have kept our exciting young players.. so I’m cautiously optimistic about this season.

On the flip side, can you imagine having to work with JL. The man is an idiot.

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No, we have the best man in charge since Cotts. 

SL landed on his feet when a manager of Nige's calibre accepted the challenge, and the owner should be grateful for that.

It should be obvious to all Nige needed plenty of time to clear up the dreadful mess left by Johnson and Ashton, and he's making great strides.

Hopefully SL holds his nerve this time and backs a good man to the hilt.

For the first time in years we have real competence at the helm and we can be confident we're not only going to hold our own but it's actually going to be enjoyable watching and supporting this club again.

Keep up the good work Nige.

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5 hours ago, Sweeneys Penalties said:

It was never an "instant fix". I hope for improvement on last season. I expect improvement. I hope for top half. My mood wont dip if we fail to achieve as I believe treading water (ish) is about as we're going to get right now. Not Nigels fault - just the state of Football finances generally

Surely  finances affect the other clubs just as much ( well the ones without parachute payments).

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23 minutes ago, Andy082005 said:

I’m sure we were told by Pearson himself it would take 3 years. 
 

I agree we have been in a mess, but there are no players on 5 year contracts so just don’t understand why people think it could take that long . We have seen a number of times where clubs in dire positions have improved rapidly when they have the right coaching staff in place (Barnsley, Huddersfield, Coventry, Forest to name a couple) 

We have to be aiming for top half this year, and we have to be aiming for top 6 in year 3 

Jury is still out for me on Pearson. This is a huge season for him we have to say an improvement on a number of things 

The problem is measuring improvement.  Some posters “winked” themselves into a frenzy over year on year league position improvement, but failed to see the bigger picture of financial doom through paying over the odds in fees and wages.  That’s not a dig at LJ, it’s just a more rounded view that looking at league position alone.  And look where it ended…a downward spiral, with no investment.  That needed a huge turnaround.

Contract length doesn’t dictate the time in takes to turn a club around.  But when you have to get rid of 10-12 players for zilch because they were OOC, and you can’t really replace them, that takes a period of time going backwards, then stabilising to then go forward.  I’d say we are starting the upwards trend now, but it won’t be fast, because we are trying to keep hold of the likes of Alex and Antoine.  We could cash in, completely sort FFP and put ourselves back into a situation of chasing players for over the odds sums, and have a couple of relatively better seasons, only to be back to square one in three years time.

This summer we’ve finally look like we’ve recruited to a plan.  A CB, a wingback and an attacking midfielder to fit a game plan.  But this has been done on a strict budget, hence the free transfers, players on low / moderate wages at their previous clubs, who we can sell a lovely training ground with a bit better wage than they were on.  We’ve done some succession planning with the French keeper too.  A potentially fantastic pick-up as many clubs might’ve looked elsewhere because they didn’t invest time looking at the finer details of work permit rules.

We are getting our act together.

We are embarking on another 2016/17 to 2017/18 period I reckon…but will end this season on a surer business and football plan than we ended the previous attempt.  That strategy was wrong.  In fairness to LJ he kept results going, even though performances were quite a bit worse for a long period.

I find it a struggle reading stuff talking about improvement without reference to the improvement we made from end of 20/21 to end of 21/22.  Yes, Nige was in charge for the last 3 months of 20/21, but look where we were then, look where we are now.

So what is improvement?

Just now, pillred said:

Surely the financial finances affect the other clubs just as much ( well the ones without parachute payments).

Not every club misspent like we did!

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2 hours ago, Henry said:

Ignoring league position for a moment.

I think if we were to continue to concede goals in the last minute, I think some fans will put pressure on Pearson early on.

We need to progress in terms of league positions but we also need to crack not letting in late goals.

Agreed, those defensive lapses were embarrassing. If you concede from a worldie or great bit of skill that can happen, but the frequency of goals going in from weak defending was crazy. That has to be improved on, especially for an old school disciplined centre back like pearson. If that is reduced then by default we should get more points, and things will look better

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24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The problem is measuring improvement.  Some posters “winked” themselves into a frenzy over year on year league position improvement, but failed to see the bigger picture of financial doom through paying over the odds in fees and wages.  That’s not a dig at LJ, it’s just a more rounded view that looking at league position alone.  And look where it ended…a downward spiral, with no investment.  That needed a huge turnaround.

Contract length doesn’t dictate the time in takes to turn a club around.  But when you have to get rid of 10-12 players for zilch because they were OOC, and you can’t really replace them, that takes a period of time going backwards, then stabilising to then go forward.  I’d say we are starting the upwards trend now, but it won’t be fast, because we are trying to keep hold of the likes of Alex and Antoine.  We could cash in, completely sort FFP and put ourselves back into a situation of chasing players for over the odds sums, and have a couple of relatively better seasons, only to be back to square one in three years time.

This summer we’ve finally look like we’ve recruited to a plan.  A CB, a wingback and an attacking midfielder to fit a game plan.  But this has been done on a strict budget, hence the free transfers, players on low / moderate wages at their previous clubs, who we can sell a lovely training ground with a bit better wage than they were on.  We’ve done some succession planning with the French keeper too.  A potentially fantastic pick-up as many clubs might’ve looked elsewhere because they didn’t invest time looking at the finer details of work permit rules.

We are getting our act together.

We are embarking on another 2016/17 to 2017/18 period I reckon…but will end this season on a surer business and football plan than we ended the previous attempt.  That strategy was wrong.  In fairness to LJ he kept results going, even though performances were quite a bit worse for a long period.

I find it a struggle reading stuff talking about improvement without reference to the improvement we made from end of 20/21 to end of 21/22.  Yes, Nige was in charge for the last 3 months of 20/21, but look where we were then, look where we are now.

So what is improvement?

Not every club misspent like we did!

A bit like my youth then :laugh:.

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I'd say no- total disastrous one maybe but I'd say most likely not.

I like what we are doing and how we are trying to rebuild the squad on a low budget- while retaining as many key players as possible but it is still a big ship to turn around from when he took us over, plus the risk of an FFP breach with a points deduction and we don't know how many other clubs would join us in the dock...Stoke signing Gayle suggests they would not!

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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The problem is measuring improvement.  Some posters “winked” themselves into a frenzy over year on year league position improvement, but failed to see the bigger picture of financial doom through paying over the odds in fees and wages.  That’s not a dig at LJ, it’s just a more rounded view that looking at league position alone.  And look where it ended…a downward spiral, with no investment.  That needed a huge turnaround.

 

Isn't hindsight wonderful.

To be honest, I can't remember anybody saying "hang on a minute, I think we are spending too much money"

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13 minutes ago, ooRya said:

Isn't hindsight wonderful.

To be honest, I can't remember anybody saying "hang on a minute, I think we are spending too much money"

Sorry, no, not hindsight from me one iota.  I was on the case 4 or so seasons ago….and others were too, some not right back then. I kept asking what are we gonna do when we no longer have any players to sell or the transfer market gravy train stops (I was thinking more a tv deal collapse than covid per se). What are we gonna do when we’ve sweated the Ashton Gate asset, but wages and other costs keep climbing?  You don’t think my dislike of our CEO’s running of City was a recent thing do you?

My first spreadsheets on each club started from the accounts published for each club relating to 16/17, after someone asked me whether we could get to the PL with the “sustainable model”.  Our spending relative to our income was out of control, so yes, I did say (many times) “hang on a minute….”

???

 

 

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18 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Sorry, no, not hindsight from me one iota.  I was on the case 4 or so seasons ago….and others were too, some not right back then. I kept asking what are we gonna do when we no longer have any players to sell or the transfer market gravy train stops (I was thinking more a tv deal collapse than covid per se). What are we gonna do when we’ve sweated the Ashton Gate asset, but wages and other costs keep climbing?  You don’t think my dislike of our CEO’s running of City was a recent thing do you?

My first spreadsheets on each club started from the accounts published for each club relating to 16/17, after someone asked me whether we could get to the PL with the “sustainable model”.  Our spending relative to our income was out of control, so yes, I did say (many times) “hang on a minute….”

???

 

 

OK fair enough.

But I would suggest that you would have been in the tiniest of minorities at that time.

The vibe I was getting in that period was, it was a question of "when" not "if" City achieved promotion.

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Considering the abject state of the club post Ashton when he took over then any improvement is a step in the right direction.

Additional factors such as FFP, the lack of finances through Covid & Jon Lansdown seemingly stepping back from his role have added to his problems but I actually think he relishes the job even more because of it.

With SL's history of supporting managers through thick and thin I just can't see it happening and considering the wonderful job he's done so far, highly unlikely.

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30 minutes ago, ooRya said:

OK fair enough.

But I would suggest that you would have been in the tiniest of minorities at that time.

The vibe I was getting in that period was, it was a question of "when" not "if" City achieved promotion.

Don’t think so.

Pretty sure there was a fair bit of bemusement at the whole Palmer/Szmodics/Paterson nonsense, replacing Pack with Nagy & bulk signings of the likes of Marley Watkins & Adelakun.

Obviously there are always the “why aren’t we signing more players?” crowd, but I don’t think the ratio was anything like you implied & plenty weren’t convinced it was a matter of when we got promoted.

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I’m still on board with the three-year project as we enter into the second year. I think there’s been progress on the pitch. It’s the first time in my three decades of following City that we’ve been able to rebuild in the second tier and that’s a positive IMO.

I think it’s clear we’re recruiting to a plan, while slowly getting rid of those costing us a fortune and offering nothing in return. Again, that’s another huge stride forward after the scattergun recruitment of the past. 

Right now, I think we’ll finish in the middle eight — anywhere from 9th to 17th — but there are so many variables in there. If Semenyo, Williams, Scott, Weimann stay fit all season, who knows. If injuries bite again, survival will be again the goal. 

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23 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Don’t think so.

Pretty sure there was a fair bit of bemusement at the whole Palmer/Szmodics/Paterson nonsense, replacing Pack with Nagy & bulk signings of the likes of Marley Watkins & Adelakun.

Obviously there are always the “why aren’t we signing more players?” crowd, but I don’t think the ratio was anything like you implied & plenty weren’t convinced it was a matter of when we got promoted.

Gullible me then I guess.

I was a strong supporter of LJ, and for a long period thought that he would lead us to the Prem.

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1 hour ago, ooRya said:

OK fair enough.

But I would suggest that you would have been in the tiniest of minorities at that time.

The vibe I was getting in that period was, it was a question of "when" not "if" City achieved promotion.

You can add me to that tiny minority. Certainly never thought promotion was anywhere near when not if.

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6 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

Then you didn’t look very far . I and others were calling out the crazy random spending years ago . Nothing to do with hindsight it was blatantly obvious it was flawed in concept and application . We were shot down in flames by others , like you I guess , who were going giddy with excitement at the numbers being spent . The majority did not scratch the surface . Our escalating wage bill was discussed many many times , but again , was shot down in flames . So you are quite wrong about hindsight . It was staring us in the face it was just too many did not care or want to understand . The basics were being ignored , the reason why we got promoted from L1 ignored , the squad building process from other promotions ignored . 

Not sure about this bit.

IMO we bought ourselves out of league 1

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For a thread that was criticised when it started, it’s now onto a third page.

I think it’s a perfectly valid and interesting question. Bottom half of the bottom half and he will be in trouble, I would think. 

I don’t want us finishing lower than 15th. I would be reasonably happy with that as long as there are no relegation worries.

As ever, a Championship season is tricky to predict accurately. That’s what makes it make it fun. 

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