The Guardian Championship 2022-23 preview

[chinapig]

1 minute ago, maxjak said:

Hasn't SL written off 15.3 mill by converting into shares?,  also very good sponsorship deal, plus major cost cutting efforts, and dumping most of the big earners at least made a dent in the 38.4 mill debt?  Or am i reading the wrong articles? 

Though it is prudent to reduce debt from a business point of view the conversion into shares doesn't impact the FFP calculations unfortunately.

FFP is essentially concerned with losses over the relevant 3 year period rather than cumulative debt. So we need to reduce costs and/or increase income to stay within the limits. No doubt we have shared the figures with the EFL to assure them we will do so.

[SecretSam]

3 hours ago, Nuno Gomes said:

Maybe I am reading the article wrongly but I thought the writer implies we are playoff hopefuls?

Sorry, didn't mean to suggest we are

[TV Tom]

2 hours ago, slartibartfast said:

You mean, like Viv Fear was supposed to be much better than Kieth ?

And Steve Ritchie who was better than Tom ?

[Bar BS3]

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

Really..? 

I'm not expecting us to finish in the top 6, but I'll be disappointed if we don't stay within touching distance of it for the majority of the season. 

As was said - we were the top scorers outside the top 6 last season and (hopefully) we've addressed the defensive lapses that hampered us so much. 

We've retained everyone we'd have wanted to (so far) - so why I cam see exactly where the article is seeing us. 

Granted, Kalas & Semenyo's enforced absence will be a hot to us. 

If we struggle, NP has to go. 

If we improve (mid table) that's OK. 

If we can hit a bit of form and get some momentum, then there's no reason that top 10 can't be possible - and from there, the top 6 is always possible. 

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

Really..? 

I'm not expecting us to finish in the top 6, but I'll be disappointed if we don't stay within touching distance of it for the majority of the season. 

As was said - we were the top scorers outside the top 6 last season and (hopefully) we've addressed the defensive lapses that hampered us so much. 

We've retained everyone we'd have wanted to (so far) - so why I cam see exactly where the article is seeing us. 

Granted, Kalas & Semenyo's enforced absence will be a hot to us. 

If we struggle, NP has to go. 

If we improve (mid table) that's OK. 

If we can hit a bit of form and get some momentum, then there's no reason that top 10 can't be possible - and from there, the top 6 is always possible. 

[Tinmans Love Child]

3 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

I would agree with it, I think it’s fair, come back in 8 months and we shall see who was right and who was wrong

[SouthS22]

I quite like that assessment.  I don't think its saying we're contenders, more that there is reason for positivity and optimism for the season.  If things go exceptionally well, we could be somewhere within touching distance of 6th but of course the greater likelihood is that they won't and we won't be.   

The criticism I would make is of the statement that we are a few players short, which seems like a rose tinted view of our squad depth.  Our first choice 11 now looks competitive as a consequence of the excellent signings made this summer, and we do have more options than last year, but there is still pretty limited scope to change games from the bench and we could be left threadbare by injuries.  It will take time to build that depth due to our financial position and lack of options for offloading more players. so to be in the top 10 come March it seems likely that we'll need  a record breaking season in terms of minmal injury numbers and of course for Semenyo to be back fully fit asap. 

More realistically, I hope that we can achieve comfortable mid table, but like NPs ambitions to be better and still within shouting distance of the playoffs by March.      

[RobArnold10]

Most predictions I’ve seen have us 12th - 16th. I think we’ll be in the middle third as well. We’re no way near the complete package but we’ve improved on the weaker areas and if we keep the momentum going that we started to build in places towards the end of last season then none of that’s out of the question.

[Nogbad the Bad]

12 hours ago, billywedlock said:

I think we will trouble the top 6 , so speak for yourself.

I remain delusional

 

I've seen your prediction (1st - top 4) and while I agree with the journalist that the additions of Naismith, Wilson & Sykes should improve us I can't see they will improve us enough to advance at least the 11 places required to take a play off place.

While we'd all like to see that, being realistic an improvement to 12th-13th could be seen as a good season, and 9th -10th a very good one.

Such progression would set us up nicely for a genuine push in 23/24, but both you & the City supporting journalist are letting your heart rule your head if you believe the play offs are a real prospect next season imo.

[Port Said Red]

14 hours ago, harrys said:

And Steve Ritchie who was better than Tom ?

And don't get me started on the Plummer's.

[And Its Smith]

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

[Nogbad the Bad]

13 hours ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

I would agree with it, I think it’s fair, come back in 8 months and we shall see who was right and who was wrong

Indeed we will, and of course anything can happen and this is exactly the time to be optimistic- up to a point anyway.

In the perfect world of pre season we can dream that none of our important players get injured, we are awarded (and thump home) 10 penalties, there are no last minute winners against us, and the vast majority of controversial match changing decisions go our way etc.

Sounds wonderful - it doesn't sound like BCFC though!

Far from it, realistically it's going to be another brutal Championship season, with many set backs, disappointments, and injuries to stretch our limited resources, and an improvement of 4/5 places would be hard earned and very welcome imo.

Still time to put your predictions here btw. 

 

[The Bard]

58 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

[maxjak]

4 minutes ago, The Bard said:

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

I think Burnley might lose one or two more ?  Hopefully one of them being Josh B.

[And Its Smith]

9 minutes ago, The Bard said:

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

When I looked at incomings and outgoings they are obviously worse off than at the end of last season but have recruited well. Also I think they’ve potentially got a good manager there who might do well. 
 

Hull is very hard to gauge and I found Swansea very hard as well. Could easily be wrong there. Huddersfield have had a nightmare summer so can see them going back to where they were 2 seasons ago.

One thing to add though is that I think it’s so hard this season to predict. Even more so than normal.  Positions 8-16th was split by just 9 points last season….3 wins.  Could be even less this season. 

[Port Said Red]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

Yes they will, as long as we win every game. 

[firstdivision]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

I would definitely take 10th. My feeling is that it's extremely optimistic. 

Seasons can take different routes: I can see a relegation scrap (key injuries, loss of confidence) or a season better than last (few injuries, improved defending in tough situations) but my hunch is that 10th is right at the upper end of what we can achieve.

[Midred]

18 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Yes they will, as long as we win every game. 

I think 138 points might just scrape 10th!

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

And don't get me started on the Plummer's.

Mario and Luigi?

[Bar BS3]

2 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

When you actually look through that league table, it's only the 3 relegated prem sides plus West Brom, that we are highly likely to be some way behind - other than them, everyone else looks like we could/should be competitive with. 

Of course, that means nothing until the season is in full flow - but everyone saying we've got no chance of top 6, is off the mark IMHO. 

Do we expect it..? NO

Could we challenge the top 6..? Yes, absolutely - but I'd agree that we'd need good fortune with injuries & key players keeping up good levels of form. 

I think everyone would be satisfied with a 10th-14th finish, but there's no reason we shouldn't be going into the season hoping for a 5th-10th finish being our initial goal. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

3 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

 

Could we challenge the top 6..? Yes, absolutely

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

[Bar BS3]

Just now, Nogbad the Bad said:

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

I'm basing my "insistence" that we "COULD" challenge the top 6 (not will) on the already stated facts that we were top scorers outside the top 6 last season, that we've (hopefully) improved our defensive options & that our many youngsters now have more experience than they did at this stage last season. 

Nigel has regularly stated that there were a few he wanted rid of (disruptive?) and they've been moved on. 

Name the 6 clubs (at least) that you'd say were guaranteed to finish above us..? 

As I've already said - I can only see 4 that I'd put into that bracket, at this stage, so, with that in mind - why couldn't an improved season see us finish around 6th place..? 

There's also the stat of how many points we lost in injury time goals conceded last season. If that can be addressed, with the new personnel, then that's another reason for hope at this stage. 

As I've said already 1st-6th = outstanding! Give NP the freedom of the city! 

7-10th = good. Give NP a contract extension. 

11th-15th =what I'd expect. Hope for progress the next season. 

Below 15th = poor, with very little/if any progress & I'd be disappointed & not prepared to give NP any more time in charge. 

[Fuber]

21 hours ago, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

Basically - Yes, they are that tight.

End of Story.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

I like to look at the GD as a way of seeing how far a team needs to improve. Naturally having a better GD tends towards having more points (there are exceptions, but in general this holds true). There are rough levels of GD that tend to tally with the main areas of the table in which teams finish.

Generally speaking a play-off team will have a GD of somewhere between +10 and +20, with the top 2 having nearer +30 or above. Last season we had -15. So, based on that, we need a swing of about +30 goals in our favour in order to have a good chance of finishing somewhere in that top 6. There are different ways to do that of course. You can tighten the defiance, concede 15 and score just 45, or you can launch attack after attack, scoring bucketloads but conceding a hefty number as well.

Either method requires a big improvement from us. We had the most room to improve in defence last season, so realistically that is where we should expect to recoup most of that +30 improvement. Do the signings we have made, and the manner we've played in pre-season, point towards reducing goals conceded by 20 or so? 

Alternatively do we look capable of scoring an extra 20 or so?

Can we achieve that kind of swing given what we have done this season and given the look of the rest of the division?

The answers will decide where we finish.

[And Its Smith]

17 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

Why can’t both happen? 

[Super]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I like to look at the GD as a way of seeing how far a team needs to improve. Naturally having a better GD tends towards having more points (there are exceptions, but in general this holds true). There are rough levels of GD that tend to tally with the main areas of the table in which teams finish.

Generally speaking a play-off team will have a GD of somewhere between +10 and +20, with the top 2 having nearer +30 or above. Last season we had -15. So, based on that, we need a swing of about +30 goals in our favour in order to have a good chance of finishing somewhere in that top 6. There are different ways to do that of course. You can tighten the defiance, concede 15 and score just 45, or you can launch attack after attack, scoring bucketloads but conceding a hefty number as well.

Either method requires a big improvement from us. We had the most room to improve in defence last season, so realistically that is where we should expect to recoup most of that +30 improvement. Do the signings we have made, and the manner we've played in pre-season, point towards reducing goals conceded by 20 or so? 

Alternatively do we look capable of scoring an extra 20 or so?

Can we achieve that kind of swing given what we have done this season and given the look of the rest of the division?

The answers will decide where we finish.

I would say no. AW had a fantastic scoring season but asking a lot for him to hit those numbers again. Martin will prob hit around double figures and the same with Semenyo. Add in some goals from Scott that's about it.

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Super said:

I would say no. AW had a fantastic scoring season but asking a lot for him to hit those numbers again. Martin will prob hit around double figures and the same with Semenyo. Add in some goals from Scott that's about it.

Agree, I think that getting goals conceded down from the almost abusive number of 77 is more realistic. We should  be able to get that down to about 60. Should. 

If that can be achieved then you are only asking for an extra dozen or so goals scored. Putting these numbers onto last season's figures would give us goals forced of 74, conceded 60, so a GD of +14 which is very much a realistic top 6 total.

Give us an average number of penalties rather than the one we had last season, and score them and that's maybe four or five of that extra dozen required?

So are we really just asking for an extra 7 or 8 goals from open play, corners, and free kicks from our attacking players? Maybe. Sounds more possible doesn't it.

God I'm even getting optimistic myself now.

[Super]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Agree, I think that getting goals conceded down from the almost abusive number of 77 is more realistic. We should  be able to get that down to about 60. Should. 

If that can be achieved then you are only asking for an extra dozen or so goals scored. Putting these numbers onto last season's figures would give us goals forced of 74, conceded 60, so a GD of +14 which is very much a realistic top 6 total.

Give us an average number of penalties rather than the one we had last season, and score them and that's maybe four or five of that extra dozen required?

So are we really just asking for an extra 7 or 8 goals from open play, corners, and free kicks from our attacking players? Maybe. Sounds more possible doesn't it.

God I'm even getting optimistic myself now.

We will certainly concede less so hopeful of a better points tally.

[The Swan and Cemetery]

My natural instincts are towards somewhat excess optimism, SkyBet gives us a 3 in 10 chance of being top half (accepting odds include lots of things beyond an objective forecast, including the need to be over round). That feels plausible but maybe marginally harsh to me. Whilst interesting to see what other teams are doing and lots of unknowns, don’t think wildly unrealistic to think that if we’ve improved we’ll do better vs last season and vice versa!

Think we’ve improved the squad, but most critical will be shape and attitude. Likely that finishing 16th or 9th will be depend on a number of (probably dull) gnarly situations where we hang on for a win, scrape a draw etc rather than Mitrovic 2.0 emerging from the Avonmouth mist. I don’t think we’ll be thrashed every week and can’t see us thrashing others, therefore fine margins here and there will be the key.

Critical injuries would definitely be concerning, but sometimes they provide opportunities, eg maybe Tommy with a bit more width in the team to supply a more traditional poacher, will turn out to be Championship ready… but maybe he won’t; season on season development also as important as many things: maybe Antoine/Alex have less impactful seasons, but maybe they’re even better, maybe Andi’s 21/22 season was the outlier in his career, or maybe he builds on it, etc etc. 

A lot of this is stating the obvious, overall expect it to be tight and for prosaic things to be more important that high profile signings etc. I’m voting for 12th, accepting a light drizzling of confirmation bias optimism, unsurprised between 7th and 18th, surprised if top or bottom 6. 

[And Its Smith]

48 minutes ago, The Swan and Cemetery said:

My natural instincts are towards somewhat excess optimism, SkyBet gives us a 3 in 10 chance of being top half (accepting odds include lots of things beyond an objective forecast, including the need to be over round). That feels plausible but maybe marginally harsh to me. Whilst interesting to see what other teams are doing and lots of unknowns, don’t think wildly unrealistic to think that if we’ve improved we’ll do better vs last season and vice versa!

Think we’ve improved the squad, but most critical will be shape and attitude. Likely that finishing 16th or 9th will be depend on a number of (probably dull) gnarly situations where we hang on for a win, scrape a draw etc rather than Mitrovic 2.0 emerging from the Avonmouth mist. I don’t think we’ll be thrashed every week and can’t see us thrashing others, therefore fine margins here and there will be the key.

Critical injuries would definitely be concerning, but sometimes they provide opportunities, eg maybe Tommy with a bit more width in the team to supply a more traditional poacher, will turn out to be Championship ready… but maybe he won’t; season on season development also as important as many things: maybe Antoine/Alex have less impactful seasons, but maybe they’re even better, maybe Andi’s 21/22 season was the outlier in his career, or maybe he builds on it, etc etc. 

A lot of this is stating the obvious, overall expect it to be tight and for prosaic things to be more important that high profile signings etc. I’m voting for 12th, accepting a light drizzling of confirmation bias optimism, unsurprised between 7th and 18th, surprised if top or bottom 6. 

Looking at the bookies we are the best value in the league by a country mile. 20/1 to get promoted.  I usually bet on one team from each division to either go up or down but my championship part of that accumulator this season may well be city top half finish 9/4 

[bcfc01]

Good preview here if anoyone's not seen it;

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/58060