The Guardian Championship 2022-23 preview

[The Bard]

People tend to focus on position but I feel in our situation points tally is more an indication of progress as it is just about our performance.  We got 55 points last season.

Anything up to 55 would be really disappointing and would cause a load of issues in terms of pressure on the manager etc.

56 to 60 Acceptable, though a tad disappointing.

61 to 65 Good

66 to 70 Very good

71 to 75 Excellent

76 to 80 Outstanding

81+ Miraculous

[ExiledAjax]

12 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Good preview here if anoyone's not seen it;

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/58060

Probably the best summary of the collapse of the sales market that I've read. Spot on for me.

No idea who that "local knowledge" guy is though.

[Bar BS3]

4 minutes ago, The Bard said:

People tend to focus on position but I feel in our situation points tally is more an indication of progress as it is just about our performance.  We got 55 points last season.

Anything up to 55 would be really disappointing and would cause a load of issues in terms of pressure on the manager etc.

56 to 60 Acceptable, though a tad disappointing.

61 to 65 Good

66 to 70 Very good

71 to 75 Excellent

76 to 80 Outstanding

81+ Miraculous

Very true. 

Points are a better indicator that position - although obviously final position can be critical. 

I'd pretty much agree with the targets & views on them - although I feel. We have to progress, even just a bit - so anything less than 60 would be poor imo.

1.5 pts per game should be a minimum hope really = 69pts (probably falling a bit short of the top 6)

1.7pts per game gives you a likely play off place. 

2pts per game & you'd expect to be automatically promoted. 

55pts was a poor return last season & I expect better than that. 

So I'd say 60-69pts was a realistic aim & beyond that we'd be very close to the top 6, which would be excellent. 

 

[Davefevs]

I’m with @ExiledAjax, goal difference has a big correlation to where you finish, and City improving that will make a big difference.

[ExiledAjax]

54 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m with @ExiledAjax, goal difference has a big correlation to where you finish, and City improving that will make a big difference.

It's an indirect causation surely? Positive GD means in general you're not losing games, so you're therefore gaining points, therefore you're moving up the table. The greater the positive difference, the more points you're likely to have. The inverse holds true as well. It's not 1:1, but it's more than just correlation I think.

My GCSE in statistics really coming into its own here.

Edited July 27, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[sh1t_ref_again]

On 26/07/2022 at 16:32, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

Could also be the difference to failing FFP and a point deduction 

[ExiledAjax]

A few audio podcast previews out as well now.

I wouldn't normally recommend Not The Top 20 due to their sponsorship choices, but they do give a good preview, and mention every team as they go through their 1-24 predictions. There's intelligent predictions like Huddersfield in 18th and Sunderland in 17th, which I think is far more realistic than the mid-table that many have them at.  Bristol City come in at at about 40 minutes as we are put in 12th position. The guys think it will be a "much better vibe" at City this season. Scott gets first mention as the "best young talent in the Championship". Wilson and Naismith are picked as great free signings and they anticipate plenty of marauding runs from him and Atkinson. As we all know they should, they identify defence as where we need to improve https://soundcloud.com/ntt20pod/championship-1-24-predictions-202223 O'Dowda gets briefly mentioned as being one with "speed and athleticism" added by Cardiff.

Fisher does the audio version of the article in the OP on Guardian Football Weekly - skip to about 31 minutes if you want to avoid Women's Euros and PL chat https://www.theguardian.com/football/audio/2022/jul/28/euro-2022-germany-efl-championship-football-weekly-extra. We aren't mentioned at all, but it's an interesting chat on Burnley, Sunderland, and a few other clubs. To be fair to them, they do apologise for the brevity of their preview.

Totally Football have also looked at it, this one starts at 19 minutes in https://play.acast.com/s/totallyfootballshow/c08e2b74-e72c-11ec-9301-0f848b077516. Again, are we mentioned? Are we ****. More of a focus on Watford, Burnley, WBA (who by the way have recruited very well) and the other usual suspects. Boro are tipped again to do well, and be the ones to challenge the relegated PL teams.

I'm assuming there will very shortly be a Totally Football League Show episode that does a full preview, but for some reason it's not out yet?

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[maxjak]

The Racing  Posts  "Big Kick Off" in depth pre seaspn supplement is always my go to publication, and has been for the last 15 years.  Great in depth amalysis of all the UK's leagues,transfers and best bets,  has seen me mainly in profit.    They don't always get in right with predictions, but all the stats and info are invaluable IMHO.

[E.G.Red]

On 26/07/2022 at 16:50, pongo88 said:

It’s a good summary IMO. At least City aren’t listed as relegation favourites though not too sure about being playoff hopefuls 

Well we always hope.(It's the hope that kills you)

Edited July 28, 2022 by E.G.Red

[Kodjias Wrist]

Was just reading the preview from sky and none of our players feature. They mention Piroe and Brereton but not Weimann who scored the same yet assisted more. Also in the best 25 players under the age of 25 there is no mention of Scott or Semenyo. 

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12660650/championship-2022-23-vincent-kompany-set-for-burnley-bow-and-a-wide-open-promotion-race

[CiderJar]

I do like that the pundits all mention Naismith and Wilson but fail to mention Sykes who arguably has impressed the most in pre-season.

[TV Tom]

8 hours ago, maxjak said:

The Racing  Posts  "Big Kick Off" in depth pre seaspn supplement is always my go to publication, and has been for the last 15 years.  Great in depth amalysis of all the UK's leagues,transfers and best bets,  has seen me mainly in profit.    They don't always get in right with predictions, but all the stats and info are invaluable IMHO.

Tipped City to finish above Swansea & Cardiff at 4/1

[Simon79]

9 hours ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

Was just reading the preview from sky and none of our players feature. They mention Piroe and Brereton but not Weimann who scored the same yet assisted more. Also in the best 25 players under the age of 25 there is no mention of Scott or Semenyo. 

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12660650/championship-2022-23-vincent-kompany-set-for-burnley-bow-and-a-wide-open-promotion-race

Scott & Semenyo both get a mention, scroll down, they are near the bottom! COYR 

[Ian M]

On 27/07/2022 at 13:29, Nogbad the Bad said:

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

Over a season I agree that 17th was where we deserved to finish but I feel our team wasn't the same team over that season.

For me the season falls into 3 periods of varying lengths. We started off reasonably well in terms of points return but I'd say performances weren't up there and we were struggling a little for goals, although our defence was quite tight. We then had a pretty unsettled period that lasted the majority of the season where the coaching team struggled with players "not being on the bus" and our manager caught covid a second time and we looked pretty terrible. Finally, they found a team and system and players who would play to that system (some of which had come around from being rumoured to have not previously been on that bus) and spent the final 2 months of the season playing the best we had all year.

It's that final two months that inspires me to believe we have a puncher's chance of getting involved in the play-off mix.

During those final 2 months this was our record: 

Those 10 games were broadly representative of a season as 3 were against teams in the top 6 of that table, half were against teams in the top half and the remaining 5 against teams in the bottom half.

During those games we conceded goals at a rate of 55 a season. The majority of the players featuring in the team then are still here and appear to have belief in how Pearson wants to play. If the new arrivals simply allow us to continue conceding at around 55 goals per season with no improvement, and our goalscoring doesn't go into decline, I believe that allows us to finish in a window of 5th to 12th. If they do help us improve on that rate of conceding then we can look towards the higher end of that window.

I am always minded of the saying "goals win matches, defences win titles". Whilst I don't think we are gonna be crowned Champions at the end of the season, I am encouraged by the progress we made on the defensive side at the end of last season and that our signings may help on that aspect too.

[Kodjias Wrist]

2 hours ago, Simon79 said:

Scott & Semenyo both get a mention, scroll down, they are near the bottom! COYR 

D'oh