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Lack of Penalty Decisions


barney999

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10 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Have we had an ordinary or expected number of incidents that could (or should) reasonably have been given as a penalty in that same period? Does the data show that at all? It's kind of important if we're checking to see whether we are getting our fair share.

@Ian M same question.

To partially answer the question I detailed them for last season;

So, just from memory, Scott was brought down in the box at home v Stoke & Forest.

Coventry away (the game we actually got the penalty!), Martin was taken out by their keeper in the first few minutes.

Dasilva was brought down at Fulham when the score was 2-2 in the 6-2 defeat.

Semenyo had a good shout & HNM did too at Preston.

I’m sure there are others that someone else can recall.

This season Atkinson both at Hull & last night were stonewall, Conway looked to have a case at Wigan.

I accept there have been spells latterly under Holden & Pearson’s time after in that same season when we were offensively weak, but not all of the last 4 years & certainly not since Semenyo got back in the side.

Edited by GrahamC
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5 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I detailed them last season;

So, just from memory, Scott was brought down in the box at home v Stoke & Forest.

Coventry away (the game we actually got the penalty!), Martin was taken out by their keeper in the first few minutes.

Dasilva was brought down at Fulham when the score was 2-2 in the 6-2 defeat.

Semenyo had a good shout & HNM did too at Preston.

I’m sure there are others that someone else can recall.

This season Atkinson both at Hull & last night were stonewall, Conway looked to have a case at Wigan.

Bournemouth away rings a bell too- or was that a bad one against, back in April?

Although on the flip side, some of the top sides in the division last season relative to their dominance didn't get as many as expected probably.,

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yes.

But over the past four seasons have we attacked and entered the box at the rate of an average Championship side?

If you check out the link from higher up the page of 31 European leagues from 17/18 season until 10/01/2022 (the point the list was published) you can sort by minutes per penalty or "big chances" per penalty which I guess would satisfy the question of attacking intent?

We are bottom of both. From 600 teams. And by a considerable margin at that.

We have played a further 25 Championship matches without a penalty since that data was published.

This is the bottom 10 sorted by big chances per penalty.

image.png

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Bournemouth away rings a bell too- or was that a bad one against, back in April?

Although on the flip side, some of the top sides last season relative to their dominance didn't get as many as expected probably.,

Yep, clear foul by Lloyd Kelly on Chris Martin.

There are so many I had forgotten some.

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3 minutes ago, Ian M said:

If you check out the link from higher up the page of 31 European leagues from 17/18 season until 10/01/2022 (the point the list was published) you can sort by minutes per penalty or "big chances" per penalty which I guess would satisfy the question of attacking intent?

We are bottom of both. From 600 teams. And by a considerable margin at that.

We have played a further 25 Championship matches without a penalty since that data was published.

This is the bottom 10 sorted by big chances per penalty.

image.png

We need 33 more big chances than 591st place Birmingham to get a penalty.

The same 33 big chance margin covers the top 572 teams in that list of 600 ?

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9 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I detailed them last season;

So, just from memory, Scott was brought down in the box at home v Stoke & Forest.

Coventry away (the game we actually got the penalty!), Martin was taken out by their keeper in the first few minutes.

Dasilva was brought down at Fulham when the score was 2-2 in the 6-2 defeat.

Semenyo had a good shout & HNM did too at Preston.

I’m sure there are others that someone else can recall.

This season Atkinson both at Hull & last night were stonewall, Conway looked to have a case at Wigan.

Right..but other teams will also have a number of claims denied. If we are going to use the fixed number of penalties awarded on a ratio basis to games played to prove that we are unjustly receiving no penalties, then it needs to be set in the context of potential claims. I'm sure every club could come up with a list of stonewall penalties they were denied.

What's every club's ratio of claims to awards?

9 minutes ago, Super said:

I'm guessing no as we struggled to have an effort on goal in some games.

Exactly. For the entirety of the 2020/21 season we averaged fewer than 8 shots per game, and fewer than 3 shots on target. That was the season where we broke the record for having the fewest number of shots of any Championship team on record. That leads me to believe, although I cannot be certain, that we have not attacked at the rate of an average Championship team over the past 4 seasons.

In fact at no point over the past four seasons have we averaged more than 11 shots per game. We've been shit at attacking, so you'd expect us to get relatively few penalties.

3 minutes ago, Ian M said:

If you check out the link from higher up the page of 31 European leagues from 17/18 season until 10/01/2022 (the point the list was published) you can sort by minutes per penalty or "big chances" per penalty which I guess would satisfy the question of attacking intent?

We are bottom of both. From 600 teams. And by a considerable margin at that.

We have played a further 25 Championship matches without a penalty since that data was published.

This is the bottom 10 sorted by big chances per penalty.

image.png

Ok. That is useful. No definition of what a "big chance" is but yeh that seems to suggest that even adjusted for attacking intent (as it were) we've been given few penalties. Which we know is true anyway.

Interesting as well to note that the Championship generally has the lowest number of penalties awarded per game.

3 minutes ago, Ian M said:

We need 33 more big chances than 591st place Birmingham to get a penalty.

The same 33 big chance margin covers the top 572 teams in that list of 600 ?

Small number bias? When dealing with tiny figures a difference of 1 will cause a huge change. For example if a team that creates 100 chances and gets 1 penalty then gets awarded just 1 extra penalty. Well they shoot up the table of "penalties per chance". They go from 1 per 100 chances to 1 per 50.

That 1 penalty has a much smaller effect in a team that creates 100 chances and gets 4 penalties. For them an extra penalty takes them from 1 penalty for every 25 chances to 1 for every 20. A much smaller improvement in the "penalty per chance" table, but exactly the same improvement in the raw number of penalties awarded.

Look, in general I know that we've had very few penalties awarded. That's indisputable. However, we have to be careful when using stats to prove something beyond bad luck.

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2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

 

Small number bias? When dealing with tiny figures a difference of 1 will cause a huge change. For example if a team that creates 100 chances and gets 1 penalty then gets awarded just 1 extra penalty. Well they shoot up the table of "penalties per chance". They go from 1 per 100 chances to 1 per 50.

That 1 penalty has a much smaller effect in a team that creates 100 chances and gets 4 penalties. For them an extra penalty takes them from 1 penalty for every 25 chances to 1 for every 20. A much smaller improvement in the "penalty per chance" table, but exactly the same improvement in the raw number of penalties awarded.

Look, in general I know that we've had very few penalties awarded. That's indisputable. However, we have to be careful when using stats to prove something beyond bad luck.

Yeah I figured that when I worked out we need just 3 penalties to put us level with 2nd bottom on the list minutes wise. I imagine it would be similar chances wise. But I am looking forward to things evening themselves out over the next 4 seasons :D

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2 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Yeah I figured that when I worked out we need just 3 penalties to put us level with 2nd bottom on the list minutes wise. I imagine it would be similar chances wise. But I am looking forward to things evening themselves out over the next 4 seasons :D

Yeh. A penalty every game. It's going to be dreamy.

Personally I think we should be given a credit for those two non-awarded penalties against Hull. Pearson can then at any time deploy the "penalty credit", in any game, and we immediately get a penalty.

Alternatively we start the home fixture v Hull 2-0 up.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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Law of averages, plus the undoubted improvement last season post Semenyo return should yield a better return than we have had.

I agree that you're not going to et all of those that were turned down- but to get none of the turned down claims over 21 and a half months??

When we were in our handful of shots combined with less possession phase totally get it, but and I'm not fully sold on any we've had turned down this season fwiw but last season a good few were- then the other side of the coin how many against in that period.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh. A penalty every game. It's going to be dreamy.

Personally I think we should be given a credit for those two non-awarded penalties against Hull. Pearson can then at any time deploy the "penalty credit", in any game, and we immediately get a penalty.

Alternatively we start the home fixture v Hull 2-0 up.

Like the Monopoly get out of jail free card, I like it! 

Can we get some cards for "opponent should have been sent off" and at any moment play that card against our opponents?

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6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Law of averages, plus the undoubted improvement last season post Semenyo return should yield a better return than we have had.

I agree that you're not going to et all of those that were turned down- but to get none of the turned down claims over 21 and a half months??

When we were in our handful of shots combined with less possession phase totally get it, but and I'm not fully sold on any we've had turned down this season fwiw but last season a good few were- then the other side of the coin how many against in that period.

Last season our feeling mistreated by refs was compounded by not only being awarded the least but conceding the most as well ?

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3 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Like the Monopoly get out of jail free card, I like it! 

Can we get some cards for "opponent should have been sent off" and at any moment play that card against our opponents?

Yes. Yes that as well. Has to be a player in the same position though. Can't turn a left back red into a goalie red.

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2 hours ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Off the top of my head, the only penalties I can remember us having in recent years are:

- Martin v Coventry

- Wells v Norwich

- Diedhiou v QPR

Other than that, I don't recall any others. 

I was going to ask how many penalties have we had since NP was appointed? I can remember the one last season. Any in the 10-12 games in the season he took over? 

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It’s daft to think that there’s some kind of conspiracy against BCFC and NP and that referees are deliberately trying to not give us penalties. Why us? And why Pearson? There are far more controversial clubs/managers out there.

It sounds like something Joey Barton or one of the blue few would come up with. “The refereeing association are all teds funded by pantsdown to stop the ascent of the mighty gas” or some nonsense. 
 

I agree that it’s simply down to us having very little attacking threat in the last few years. At the back end of 2020-21, we went several games without even mustering an attempt on goal. So naturally we weren’t going to get awarded any penalties. We’re slowly improving so hopefully they will come.

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11 hours ago, Ian M said:

If you check out the link from higher up the page of 31 European leagues from 17/18 season until 10/01/2022 (the point the list was published) you can sort by minutes per penalty or "big chances" per penalty which I guess would satisfy the question of attacking intent?

We are bottom of both. From 600 teams. And by a considerable margin at that.

We have played a further 25 Championship matches without a penalty since that data was published.

This is the bottom 10 sorted by big chances per penalty.

image.png

If people will put these sort of things together, then someone has to be bottom. 

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8 hours ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Off the top of my head, the only penalties I can remember us having in recent years are:

- Martin v Coventry

- Wells v Norwich

- Diedhiou v QPR

Other than that, I don't recall any others. 

Diedhiou missed one at Swansea.

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3 minutes ago, downendcity said:

While we might have had fewest penalties awarded and the most conceded, we are top of the table in apology letters from the referees association!

Last week I was trying to think of a gag about that…

”we’re the only club still signed up to paper statements instead of on pitch decisions” or something like that. I’m sure @Major Isewater can come up with something!

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