MyBrotherErnie

7 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I disagree that Goodhart's Law is applicable, because xG can't be gamed in that way you're implying can it? It's an objective measure, so it's not like possession or shots on target - where you could play it around the back or shoot from 30 yards out to game the stats.

I think it does matter if something like an xG rolling average improves, because even if results don't match then it's an indication of where we're headed - and you'd expect in the majority of cases results to eventually converge with it. So it can be a leading indicator of improvement and can show an increase in performance that isn't yet paying dividends, but should be continued with, right?

Completely agree that xG is harder to game than the other stats you mention (both of which are also objective), but I would still say Goodhart's law applies. xG still incentivises certain things, especially getting shots away, that aren't always the best course of action. 

On the second point I don't think we fundamentally disagree. It definitely matters if performances are improving even if results aren't yet. My point was just that the statistic doesn't matter in itself, but what it measures does. 

A huge problem in football media is that too many people use statistics without referring back to why they matter.

xG, in itself, obviously doesn't matter (at all). But it does measure something that does matter -- the quality of chances a team is creating. Too often journalists (and sometimes managers) get confused on this, and start to speak as if it is the statistic itself that matters (see this). The statistic is not useful unless it is good for measuring something meaningful!

In this case, of course it doesn't matter that our 6-game rolling average xG has improved, but this is good evidence to support the intuition that our quality of play has improved in the last month (beyond results), which does matter. 

I always think about this graphic with VAR. Seems pretty intuitive that the system shouldn't be used for decisions that are closer than the margin of error inherent to the technology. If the call is too close for the system to be certain that the player is offside, then surely it isn't a clear and obvious error by the lino/referee. 

My bigger problem with VAR is that it's part of a culture making football more like a science, rather than something entertaining. I guess ultimately the only way to escape that is to reduce the sums of money invested in the game (which I can't see happening any time soon). 

4 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

That's quite the statement...

I don't believe more people know Frank Lampard than Bristol City at all

One metric, Lampard 8m google results, City 446m google results

Bristol is a city, so presumably most of those results are about the place not us (however massive we may be).

2 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

he could've done the BT role though. 

Exactly! If they want someone more visible on the training ground, hire someone for that role under Pearson. There's no way on earth Tinnion is better placed than Pearson to make judgements about team selection, style of play and recruitment. 

Tinnion is a club legend but the longer this goes on the more he becomes one of 'them', rather than one of 'us'. 

At least he's wearing the training kit, so he's ready to be "out on the grass"...

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Tony Thorpe.

Midtable side although weakest Championship in years is an interesting shout.

Midtableish yes, but he neglects to mention the injuries and in particular some who haven't kicked a ball this season which is a bit of a mitigating factor.

I keep coming back to our team on Saturday -- starting Joseph James, 4 players on the bench who have never played in the league, a 17 year old, and 2 goalkeepers. 

Expecting us to be doing any better than we are is just fantasy; there's a huge difference between introducing some academy players into a team of experienced pros, and fielding lots of teenagers and expecting them to be promotion contenders immediately.

I do wonder if recent successes with academy players has made Lansdown and Tinnion think that youth can be relied upon more than is actually realistic. 

Just posted his goodbye message on Twitter. Noticeable (but unsurprising!) who doesn't receive any thanks...

The rest just reinforces to me all the more that everyone bar the board and ownership were fully committed to NP's project and the new team identity. 

https://twitter.com/jasoneuell/status/1719009755094483396

Just now, Rob said:

Managers come, managers go. This is the way of the world. The club goes on.

But what does it stand for? It's so much easier to support a club who embody values I agree with.

7 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

This is such a generic comment from any board, simply insert a name. I am so effing angry with them, i hope it’s toxic next game, not like they will care.

Protest at the next rugby game and then maybe one of them will be there to hear it!

27 minutes ago, petehinton said:

The signings points (namely those two) that i’ve people making are real head scratches to me. Two signings out of however many brilliant successes, along with the academy players coming through - so are we saying we expect literally every single signing to be a roaring success? Not gonna happen, to any club in the world let alone to us. 

Pearson's record with signings is so much better than the previous administration. Clear why each signing was made, low expenditure so low risk, and mostly very successful (even the 'failures' you mention haven't performed that badly and could still come good). 

Compare that to the dozens of expensive players LJ brought in with no real idea of how to use them, ultimately making huge losses with 0 impact (Szmodics, Eisa, Engvall, Palmer, Watkins to name a few). 

Recruitment is just one of several areas where Pearson has transformed the club culture for the better. 

Pearson is more than right to be angry. He got brought in to do a job (with clear expectations and constraints) and has performed very well. Now those above him in the hierarchy won't even respect him enough to have a proper conversation about the future. Embarrassing from the Lansdowns, and we'd fully deserve the chaos that would ensue if we got rid of Pearson and his approach now. 

Seems crazy to me that Oliver is allowed to work in the UAE and then a few days later ref a game with a club owned by them.

An obvious conflict of interest, and something that can only weaken trust in refereeing further.

54 minutes ago, iamalagerdrinker said:

 

All relevant to us, but especially interesting from 37:40. Clearly if the usual process for new kits takes 18 months, judging O'Neills too harshly on a timetable much much shorter than that seems a bit unfair. The real proof will be in less rushed kits, starting with the away kit. 

Just now, Selred said:

Can play CB, RB, CDM. £2 mil isn’t much in the scheme of things, only 25 so should improve and has captained a few times so a leader. 

Imagine him, Palace CB, Currie and CM to come in. 

Also depends if £2m is the initial fee, or the total value of the package, of course. Similar to reports of us paying £8m for Massengo, when in reality the amount we will actually end up having paid will be much lower than that. 

Not a pretty picture for us!

3 minutes ago, marcofisher said:

One of the worst signings in City history for me. Seemed lightweight and ineffective when he first came in, not ready for a number of years because of that. By the time he is able to put a few decent performances is, he is into the last two years of his contract and then enters a contract stalemate. And then is shown to be completely inferior to another even younger midfielder who comes through our academy.

Complete exemplification of the MA/LJ disaster era of signings, big exciting signings which very much resulted in wasted wages and will end up leaving for peanuts if not free after insignificant contribution. 

Is this serious? He's played over 100 games, mostly quite well with a few excellent games and a few weak games. In a weak and inexperienced squad as a young player. Would have been good to have recouped at least some of the investment but not a bad signing overall, let alone one of the worst in our history. 

11 minutes ago, Malago said:

Andi has started all 44 games and as long as he avoids injury next week he should complete the season.  As a matter of interest anyone know who was the last City player to do this.  I know some of the team of the 70s did it, Brian Drysdale etc but there must a more recent player who’s started every league game.

I feel like Flint had an incredibly long run of successive games, including every minute in 16.17?

The facts show that Semenyo's this season is already 'there', and that he is contributing to lots of goals, especially for a 22 year old. Can't understand the refusal to see this and to enjoy watching an academy player starting to flourish...

                             Fielding
       Wright             Flint               Baker
O'Dowda                                                Bryan
                  Smith           Brownhill
Reid                  Diedheou               Leko

Would be my guess. Odd nonetheless.

Kodjia sent off for an altercation with Fredericks...

19 minutes ago, BS15_RED said:

Also regarding the atmosphere, I found the guy on the PA constantly trying to whip the crowd up cringeworthy.

"Give us a cheer South Stand!" got a bit tedious the 2nd or 3rd time before kick off. I thought we had it bad with Downsy... 

Took up the same deal, very similar feelings after the game. Players and the crowd showed no passion, the game was slow and far too stop-start. Safe to say I won't be switching to a dual season ticket next year. 

9 minutes ago, mozo said:

Average  age?!

According to Paterson, it's 2.