SimplyRed Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Few stats to start with:- Under Millen (wiggles for 2 games) 6 pts from 12 league games = 0.5 pts per game Under Del 25 pts from 19 league games = 1.31 pts per game if we continue with that form we will accumulate a further 19 pts from the remaining 15 games giving us a total haul of 50 pts. Question: Is that enough? Stats can be manipulated to support any side of an argument. If you compare like for like and compare Millen's 12 league games at the start of the season with McInnes' last 12 league games (or our current form, if you prefer), the results are much closer: Millen W1 D3 L8 6pts from 12 = 0.5/game McInnes W3 D2 L7 11pts from 12 = 0.92/game Projecting our current form over the 15 games remaining gives a return of 13.75pts (let's be generous and say 14 points) That's only a total of 45 points and while I think that may probably be enough, I'm still of the opinion it will go to the wire. I think a lot depends on whether McManus can improve our form and patch the defence to concede less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan Tansley Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Stats can be manipulated to support any side of an argument. If you compare like for like and compare Millen's 12 league games at the start of the season with McInnes' last 12 league games (or our current form, if you prefer), the results are much closer: Millen W1 D3 L8 6pts from 12 = 0.5/game McInnes W3 D2 L7 11pts from 12 = 0.92/game Projecting our current form over the 15 games remaining gives a return of 13.75pts (let's be generous and say 14 points) That's only a total of 45 points and while I think that may probably be enough, I'm still of the opinion it will go to the wire. I think a lot depends on whether McManus can improve our form and patch the defence to concede less. Closer? It's just under double!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riaz Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Closer? It's just under double!! !!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimplyRed Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Closer? It's just under double!! And? I was merely trying to point out that the original stats can be made to look less impressive, and the points projection less favourable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riaz Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 And? I was merely trying to point out that the original stats can be made to look less impressive, and the points projection less favourable... But even looking at it from a negative point of view (1 point per game) - we should survive. No matter, how you look at the stats, they tell you that McInnes has done a terrific job so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agreed. But our stats are only part of the equation, other teams are performing worse and some have a definite downward trend. That can all change with a couple of wins of course, but after all these games I doubt we can expect any team at the bottom (indluding us) to put together a sustained winning run now. In fairness, of all the teams in and around the bottom of the table, there ARE usually 1 or 2 that DO put together a decent run of form at some stage. Sometimes that can come too late, ala Sheff Utd, but I would almost certainly expect that over the last 10 games or so there will be at least 1 or 2 of the bottom 6 sides that dramatically improve their points per game ratio over that period, just as there are often other teams that get dragged into it by hitting a bad run of form. It will certainly be interesting. Oh to have a little run of results now and settle for a boring end to the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arpaul Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 And yet we are 14th (or equal 12th) in the championship form table for the last 8 games. Others are doing worse and a win at Peterborough would pull a couple more teams into it. Pompey are 19th in the form table and about to lose 10 points - they may be in big trouble now. If we can maintain just over 1 point average per game, we will be ok. I appreciate your upbeat post Cynic, but............... it is City we're talking about. They've broken my heart more times than any woman ever could. I concern myself that Forest, Millwall are sure to hit some kind of form (however temporary it may be) and, apart form the last 20 minutes on Tuesday we seem to be sliding towards the bottom three. Our goal difference which was probably worth an additional point a few weeks back, is now on a par with the teams below us. I'm buoyed by yours and Riaz's confidence boosting posts, but having been following City since 1968 I'm sure you can appreciate my concerns. I really want to believe.................................................................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just taking a more detailed look at the NPC league table - it is hard to believe just how woeful Forests home record is this season, especially after being best part of unbeaten at home for about 2 seasons, prior to this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted February 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 And? I was merely trying to point out that the original stats can be made to look less impressive, and the points projection less favourable... The original stats are as they are and not an attempt, in any way, to shine a certain better light with Del than Millen. if you want to lump the entire season together and forget about the manager for a minute then we are currently on exactly 1 pt per game. At a cursory glance most people who have responded to my thread seem to think 46 points will be sufficient. My view is that it will not. Will we get more? Yes. So I think we will survive and we can thank Millen for 6pts of that if you like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 The original stats are as they are and not an attempt, in any way, to shine a certain better light with Del than Millen. if you want to lump the entire season together and forget about the manager for a minute then we are currently on exactly 1 pt per game. At a cursory glance most people who have responded to my thread seem to think 46 points will be sufficient. My view is that it will not. Will we get more? Yes. So I think we will survive and we can thank Millen for 6pts of that if you like. Looking at it in that way, you are right. We do not need anything to dramatic really to ensure safety, but of course we do still have work to do. Certainly, the sooner we can get the points on the board, the sooner we can all relax and beging to rebuild for next season - in which mid table needs to be our realistic target. If we are unable to secure an average of 1 point per game between now and the end of the season, then we will deserve to be relegated and it will have been a dreadfull season. Just as important as getting that 1 point per game total, will be to make sure we do not lose the "6 pointers" against the likes of Forest, Coventry - otherwise that final total needed to be safe could end up being higher than the 45/46 that it looks like should be the case at the current time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Rollason Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 This has to be one of the most grown up discussions i've ever seen on here, apart from one poster, all very reasonable and rational. Carry on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 The key is going to be winning away against our fellow strugglers and winning at home against the mid table teams. Top 8 - 3 Home - (W Ham, Cardiff, BPool) 2 Away (Boro, Brum) Middle 8 - 4 Home (Leics, Derby, Watford, Barnsley), 1 away (Burnley) Bottom 7 - 1 Home (Cov), 4 Away (Pboro, Ports, Ipswich, Forest) Let's say top teams W1, D1, L3 - 4 points Middle teams W2, D1, L2 - 7 points Bottom teams W2, D1, L2 - 7 points That would give us 18 points and take us to 49 in total and should be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Squirrel Kingdom Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 A couple of things to keep an eye on at the bottom of the table - I'm going to assume Pompey have at least ten points deducted on Friday, but this is what the situation looks like now: * We're at the top of the mini league (home and away) of the bottom six clubs but we also have the fewest games left against other teams in the bottom six (Cov at home, Peterbrough & Forest away). We've only lost twice to teams in the current bottom six (Peterborough at AG and Cov at the Ricoh), so I'd say that Saturday's game is a 'mustn't lose'. * All but one of Forest's five games against other teams in the bottom six have been away from home - they've still got to play us, Coventry, Donny & Millwall at the City Ground. * Millwall have played against all the other clubs in the bottom six at The New Den but still have to go to Coventry, Donny, Forest & Peterborough. That could be a real problem for them. * This is the first time that Peterborough have been in the bottom six all season. They've been in decline since Firework Night and haven't won since Boxing Day: they could be the team that gets dragged into the relegation battle. IMO anything greater than 46 points and we'll be OK. Only three of the last 21 clubs to have been relegated from the Championship won more than 46 points. Alex Deacon's latest projection in the Racing & Football Outlook puts us on 49.78. A simple mathematical projection puts us on 47.53 However...if we don't go down this season, we'll be amongst the favourites to go down next season. To further confuse matters, we're still not mathematically out of the playoffs ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cockneydave Posted February 16, 2012 Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 15 nil nil's will do me. Wont want any sleeping tablets then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.