Championship Statistics So Far

[SteelCityRobin]

There are some very interesting charts on here...

On 3 of the charts we are in the best quadrant, amongst the teams that are in the top half (AT LEAST) of the table.. The other we are faring quite similarly to Middlesbrough.

It’s reading through this that makes me so frustrated, how on Earth are we not top half at least?!

Also makes our loss at home to Wednesday look like a MASSIVE loss of 3 points.

 

https://experimental361.com/2018/11/12/scatter-graphics-championship-12-nov-2018/

[Mr Popodopolous]

Funny, can't say I am surprised at that.

Energetically wasteful I can well believe and as for defence, not much above 1 goal a game conceded to date (on average).

This line helped stand out...some complain about 9 goals in 9 home games but this bit certainly plays its part:

Quote

West Brom have been scoring for fun this season – not only have the Baggies created plenty of chances but they’ve also been the sharpest finishers by a decent margin. Both Middlesbrough and Bristol City have fared far worse from a similar number of chances, having needed around two more shots than the average team to find the net.

Draw your own conclusions.

[ExiledAjax]

Yeh, and it is a serious reason or argument for sticking with the current set up for a bit longer.  The underlying statistics are there and they show that despite results going against us there is the potential for a half-decent mid-table team to emerge.*  I'm sure there will be number of people who will pour scorn on the stats.  However, generally if you look at the historical stuff that E361 does it shows that over a season the stats tend to prove a good indicator of a team's level.

As for how are we not top half at least? Energetically wasteful is one reason.  Essentially we create a large number of poor quality chances that our strikers are not capable of converting. Basically Fam, Taylor and Weimann don't have the quality to compensate for the crap being served up to them by the midfield, and our midfielders don't have the quality to consistently score goals.  Last season IIRC we were far more clinical, I think we were hitting one goal for every 8 or 9 shots. This season we are up at nearly 12, so we are almost 50% harder for our goals. Not only do we seem to have lost Reid's raw goal scoring, we also seem to have lost a chunk of efficiency in front of goal (perhaps Flinty also provided a huge amount of efficiency, taking very few shots but scoring a fair chunk of them).

I hear that on Saturday we were guilty of lumping crosses into Fammy, but that he then doesn't have the quality to turn that cross into a quality chance, let alone a goal. That is borne out in the stats. A cross with some sort of shot is deemed a chance, but you can smack a hundred of them in and if your strikers can't convert then what's the point. 

My hope (and it may be forlorn) is that Eisa and perhaps Adelakun can come in and start to either a) convert the poor chances or b) provide some higher quality opportunities that Fammy and Taylor are actually able to convert.  Forgoing that minor miracle we will need someone to be brought in in January who can feed off scraps, someone who scores regularly in a team that creates poor chances.

*I am fully aware that this is not a lofty nor ambitious target, but it seems to be the target.

[Mr Popodopolous]

22 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh, and it is a serious reason or argument for sticking with the current set up for a bit longer.  The underlying statistics are there and they show that despite results going against us there is the potential for a half-decent mid-table team to emerge.*  I'm sure there will be number of people who will pour scorn on the stats.  However, generally if you look at the historical stuff that E361 does it shows that over a season the stats tend to prove a good indicator of a team's level.

As for how are we not top half at least? Energetically wasteful is one reason.  Essentially we create a large number of poor quality chances that our strikers are not capable of converting. Basically Fam, Taylor and Weimann don't have the quality to compensate for the crap being served up to them by the midfield, and our midfielders don't have the quality to consistently score goals.  Last season IIRC we were far more clinical, I think we were hitting one goal for every 8 or 9 shots. This season we are up at nearly 12, so we are almost 50% harder for our goals. Not only do we seem to have lost Reid's raw goal scoring, we also seem to have lost a chunk of efficiency in front of goal (perhaps Flinty also provided a huge amount of efficiency, taking very few shots but scoring a fair chunk of them).

I hear that on Saturday we were guilty of lumping crosses into Fammy, but that he then doesn't have the quality to turn that cross into a quality chance, let alone a goal. That is borne out in the stats. A cross with some sort of shot is deemed a chance, but you can smack a hundred of them in and if your strikers can't convert then what's the point. 

My hope (and it may be forlorn) is that Eisa and perhaps Adelakun can come in and start to either a) convert the poor chances or b) provide some higher quality opportunities that Fammy and Taylor are actually able to convert.  Forgoing that minor miracle we will need someone to be brought in in January who can feed off scraps, someone who scores regularly in a team that creates poor chances.

*I am fully aware that this is not a lofty nor ambitious target, but it seems to be the target.

Tend to agree with a lot of this, would also throw in poor tactics but we now see how we are missing Reid for his goals, technical ability and all round game.

The flipside of this- if this site is right which it may or may not be, we have had the 2nd highest Shots on Target this season and the third highest shots, so it is that a) We are getting bad chances or b) That our strikers are missing decent ones? or c) Both- I tend to think c. Because hitting the woodwork 11 times in the first 17 games, can't all be down to an abundance of poor chances.

We were definitely more clinical last season, yeah.

The other interesting thing I looked up is we have the joint 3rd best record (that site again) in shots on target per game conceded.

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=league_shots

[Harry]

On 12/11/2018 at 17:51, Mr Popodopolous said:

Funny, can't say I am surprised at that.

Energetically wasteful I can well believe and as for defence, not much above 1 goal a game conceded to date (on average).

This line helped stand out...some complain about 9 goals in 9 home games but this bit certainly plays its part:

Draw your own conclusions.

Some do indeed complain about 9 goals from 9 homes games. Don’t forget, 4 of those were in 1 game. 

The stats can stack up whatever way you want to play them. Fact is, Blackburn game aside, we’ve scored 5 goals in 8 home games. We’re not very entertaining. 

The stats can tell us that we’ve had loads of shots on target, but they’ll include a dolly of a header from a corner that is easily picked up by a keeper, a weak shot from 25 yards that troubles no one, etc etc. Just because we’ve had a few shots does not make us entertaining. We’ve seen hardly any attacking quality from us - at home - this season. 

I actually think it’s a different story away from home. We’ve been a bit brighter going forward. But the home games this season have certainly not dished up a wholesome spectacle. 5 goals in 8 games. It’s poor. It’s boring. It’s turgid. It’s slow. It’s lacking intent, lacking a plan, lacking impetus, lacking quality, lacking passion.

Stats won’t tell you these things. How fans ‘feel’. People have been bored by our home performances. Lee needs to whip up some enthusiasm from somewhere.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

Some do indeed complain about 9 goals from 9 homes games. Don’t forget, 4 of those were in 1 game. 

The stats can stack up whatever way you want to play them. Fact is, Blackburn game aside, we’ve scored 5 goals in 8 home games. We’re not very entertaining. 

The stats can tell us that we’ve had loads of shots on target, but they’ll include a dolly of a header from a corner that is easily picked up by a keeper, a weak shot from 25 yards that troubles no one, etc etc. Just because we’ve had a few shots does not make us entertaining. We’ve seen hardly any attacking quality from us - at home - this season. 

I actually think it’s a different story away from home. We’ve been a bit brighter going forward. But the home games this season have certainly not dished up a wholesome spectacle. 5 goals in 8 games. It’s poor. It’s boring. It’s turgid. It’s slow. It’s lacking intent, lacking a plan, lacking impetus, lacking quality, lacking passion.

Stats won’t tell you these things. How fans ‘feel’. People have been bored by our home performances. Lee needs to whip up some enthusiasm from somewhere.  

Entertainment is subjective though- some find winning entertaining, some find tikitaka entertaining, some find goal fests to be their choice, some find big margins and some maybe even long ball football in the sense there's a lot of goalmouth action. Traditional wing play too of course, lots of people seem to appreciate that.

You can't always go out gungho- Sheffield United at home for example at that time? Would argue a tactical game was fairly necessary. Stoke- particularly 2nd half, what else did we have to do, come on.

I agree about elements of what you say, tactics have not been the best but at the same time if you cannot see a possible problem with finishing then I'm surprised.

You talk about types of chances. 'Big' chances is a good metric- 3-1 or 3-0 v Stoke had only the 'big' chances gone in. Similar at Reading- by the same token we would have drawn with Brentford and Hull by that metric, but Wigan also.

My main conclusion from this is that with better finishing we would have hit the woodwork a few less times and have a few more goals, 3 or 4 something like that.