Ten games in

[CyderInACan]

15 hours ago, Grey Fox said:

Massive improvement on last season, however we still concede too many soft goals  and chances. This , in my opinion, is a season to enjoy without the pressures of expectancy or fear of failure. Next season may well be the one that takes us to the promised land , subject to strengthening the squad and retaining what we have.

This is arguably harder than recruiting. There are bound to be offers for Scott, Semenyo and Conway if they carry on their current form. 

[Port Said Red]

1 hour ago, redkev said:

Personally I would take a point against qpr as long as we get the 3 against Coventry. Think Alex Scott will be a big miss ( suspension) thought we struggled yesterday after he went off missed his guile on the ball 

Watching on the stream I think he was lucky the Burnley players didn't make more of that challenge and get the referee to pull a red. He was late and very high, not nice at all.

[Port Said Red]

5 hours ago, The Bard said:

I feel we're a good 3 points short of what we should have got given how the games have gone.   The games v Hull and Blackpool spring to mind.  

A measure I like is to compare like for like results from last year to this.  I make it that we're level, having got better results vs teams we played last year but struggled against the promoted sides.  There is a danger in getting carried away as we are on target for about 63 points. We could do with getting back to our habit of scoring first.  

If Norwich had been our tenth game instead of Burnley, I am confident we would have had 17pts from our 1st 10, and who knows we may have taken even more momentum into the Norwich game. That would have made a us all even happier.

[Nogbad the Bad]

15 hours ago, Grey Fox said:

This , in my opinion, is a season to enjoy without the pressures of expectancy or fear of failure. 

Exactly this.

I'm going to relish watching an attacking and entertaining City team firing in the goals to secure a place in upper mid table.

Not looking for, or expecting, anything more than that.

Very unusual and exciting prospect for us City fans, and as you say, a season to enjoy.

[Jerseybean]

Bristol Live version….

So we're 10 games into the season and as the old adage goes, that is when the table starts to take shape. As of Sunday morning, the Robins sit in ninth on point adrift of the playoffs. 

There won't be many people who wouldn't have taken that before the season got underway and City have navigated their way through a series of tricky tests. There's also the reminder that six of those games have come away from home. 

Arguably, City could and probably should be higher in the league. The referee cost them against Hull and individual errors have proved costly in games against Sunderland, Norwich and Blackpool. 

There is no doubt that will remain a concern and it proves there is still plenty of work to do from a defensive perspective but that is counteracted by the fact there remains progress all over the pitch, emphasised by the performances of the last two matches. 

At the moment, it seems those days of last season where City concede first and collapse are long behind them. They're drilled, organised and most importantly, showing the same levels of dedication and commitment in each fixture to succeed.

[redkev]

56 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Watching on the stream I think he was lucky the Burnley players didn't make more of that challenge and get the referee to pull a red. He was late and very high, not nice at all.

He does live life on the edge , needs to reign it in just a tad 

[Port Said Red]

1 minute ago, redkev said:

He does live life on the edge , needs to reign it in just a tad 

It's rein, don't worry I got an admonishment from a couple of posters for exactly the same mistake.

[Negan]

Yeah I think if the season continues as it has so far where we are playing good football, sometimes it doesn’t go out way but you can see the lads have tried, we’ll definitely be top half. I’ll take anything from 10th-14th right now. Like others have said it’ll be next season where I think expectation levels will rise for a top 6 finish 

[PHILINFRANCE]

6 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

It's rein, don't worry I got an admonishment from a couple of posters for exactly the same mistake.

Of course it is, but such a mistake is quite understandable at the present time.

[Garland-sweden]

We are playing good creative football, seen all games in Robins TV, Cardiff live.  We have shown we can take points or beat any team in this leauge. Every season I hope for top six, this season think we can make it. Early days but so far so good. 

[Tinmans Love Child]

On 18/09/2022 at 15:59, Port Said Red said:

It's rein, don't worry I got an admonishment from a couple of posters for exactly the same mistake.

Personally I blame the people who invented the English language and their utter laziness by using the same words for different things just spelled differently, they should have worked harder to find unique words for everything, very poor.

[Port Said Red]

46 minutes ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

Personally I blame the people who invented the English language and their utter laziness by using the same words for different things just spelled differently, they should have worked harder to find unique words for everything, very poor.

Like this?

 

[Jerseybean]

BP data-based version: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/bristol-city-naismith-conway-season-7607231

 

[pillred]

On 20/09/2022 at 05:53, Tinmans Love Child said:

Personally I blame the people who invented the English language and their utter laziness by using the same words for different things just spelled differently, they should have worked harder to find unique words for everything, very poor.

This reminds me of a joke I heard once, what's so special about Shakespeare anyway half of what he came out with is just a lot of everyday quotes and phrases.

[The Journalist]

This might seem weirdly vague, but I just hope that, whatever potential is in this group, as a fanbase we feel like we've fulfilled it by the end of May.

For me, at this stage I'm not really sure across a 46-game season what our ceiling is... but after 10 matches I do feel like we deserve to be higher than ninth. Instinctively I feel like we're better than that - how much better, I'm not sure.

I do think Nigel's done a fantastic job and we look as good a side currently as we have in years. It's really fun to watch.

All that said, I also think there's every chance the core of this squad could be ripped apart next summer, hence my opening comment - I just hope we have no regrets by the time that happens.

(No idea if any of the above will make sense to anyone other than me).

[The Journalist]

On 18/09/2022 at 16:08, Negan said:

Yeah I think if the season continues as it has so far where we are playing good football, sometimes it doesn’t go out way but you can see the lads have tried, we’ll definitely be top half. I’ll take anything from 10th-14th right now. Like others have said it’ll be next season where I think expectation levels will rise for a top 6 finish 

I'm looking at it slightly differently - I wonder whether this season may actually be our best chance of sneaking into the play-offs.

If we finish 11th, for example, but Alex Scott, Antoine Semenyo and Tommy Conway all continue to impress, how likely is it we lose at least two of those three? And then there are others - including our goalkeeper - out of contract too?

I'm not sure, with our FFP situation as it is, with the way we're playing currently and the way this season is already panning out, it's going to be as simple as just seeing an upward trajectory/year-on-year improvement.

The next block of games before the World Cup will obviously give us a clearer idea, but instinctively my feeling is we're ahead of schedule and an opportunity to go and get in that top six could present itself sooner than we expected. If it pans out that way, we may need to grasp it now rather than expecting it to happen again.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, The Journalist said:

This might seem weirdly vague, but I just hope that, whatever potential is in this group, as a fanbase we feel like we've fulfilled it by the end of May.

For me, at this stage I'm not really sure across a 46-game season what our ceiling is... but after 10 matches I do feel like we deserve to be higher than ninth. Instinctively I feel like we're better than that - how much better, I'm not sure.

I do think Nigel's done a fantastic job and we look as good a side currently as we have in years. It's really fun to watch.

All that said, I also think there's every chance the core of this squad could be ripped apart next summer, hence my opening comment - I just hope we have no regrets by the time that happens.

(No idea if any of the above will make sense to anyone other than me).

As it stands, having played a good mix of teams, I think we are rightly in the top half.  What I’m not convinced about is our ability to break into the top when it matters, at game 46.  But it can be very fine lines.  Even after 10 games the table is still a bit immature.

We are blessed in the forward line, even with an injury or two.

In midfield we are in a good situation being able to perm 2 from 4, plus King.  But that would become strained by injury, especially if 2 out at the same time, as fixtures will mean many many weeks of Saturday, Tuesday.

Defence, we are relying on Kalas to improve our depth / options.

Should we stay injury clear, then maybe we can push.  But that’s a big ask in a congested season because of the WC.

You are right about next summer…one big unknown at the mo’.  Would be good to get an update from Richard Gould at some point.

[mozo]

I think the general rule is that 16 points from a block of ten games is playoff form so we're doing pretty well with 14 points.

Looking at the fixtures you could see us managing another 14 points in block #2.

Good to see Nige with a 40% win record in the league so far too.

All very promising.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Defence, we are relying on Kalas to improve our depth / options.

This is bugging me. Had a look at your tableau the other day. Am I right that Kalas ranks pretty low in your points gained/lost whilst on the pitch vis? If I've misinterpreted it then tell me, but I'm not sure that he will improve our defence on his return.

I am also always haunted by a comment he once said whilst on co-comms on RobinsTV. "Blocking shots is our bread and butter". He said it proudly and as though it was as the correct manner of defending. I'd be interested in your view on that. For me I want our CBs to be about positioning, teamwork and interceptions rather than last ditch heroic blocks. Stop the shot, don't block it?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Kalas and last ditch blocks, heroic defence etc.

Think that's a bit of a waste myself. He can do that but while he's no Webster or Naismith, he has the pace or recovery speed to play a higher line, in his loan spell he scored high interceptions wise v Norwich in the mid December draw.

Not bad technically but more conservative...can carry it a bit but could he be the most conservative in a back 3 with Naismith and Atkinson.

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Kalas and last ditch blocks, heroic defence etc.

Think that's a bit of a waste myself. He can do that but while he's no Webster or Naismith, he has the pace or recovery speed to play a higher line, in his loan spell he scored high interceptions wise v Norwich in the mid December draw.

Not bad technically but more conservative...can carry it a bit but could he be the most conservative in a back 3 with Naismith and Atkinson.

I agree with this, and I'm not trying to paint him as a bad defender at all. 

He's played a fair bit with Atkinson and Vyner last season but obviously not at all with Naismith, so when he returns it will be a fairly distinct back 3 whatever particular manner they are set up in. With Sykes (or Wilson or Tanner) he'll also have a new foil in the RWB position. He could therefore perform quite differently in that set up than as part of the group that performed relatively poorly last season.

I've been asking myself this question though: Assume we don't have Kalas in the squad, and we are able to buy a defender to fit and fix our current defensive issues. Is Kalas that player? Is he the type of player we would look for in this situation?

Personally I am not sure he is. Personally I think we currently lack a "keep it tight" kind of CB. Someone rigid, disciplined, and able to hold and organise a line when partnered with guys like Naismith, Vyner and Atkinson who are all prone to a swashbuckling rampage forward. Is that Kalas? I hope it is but I am not sure that is his natural game.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

This is bugging me. Had a look at your tableau the other day. Am I right that Kalas ranks pretty low in your points gained/lost whilst on the pitch vis? If I've misinterpreted it then tell me, but I'm not sure that he will improve our defence on his return.

I am also always haunted by a comment he once said whilst on co-comms on RobinsTV. "Blocking shots is our bread and butter". He said it proudly and as though it was as the correct manner of defending. I'd be interested in your view on that. For me I want our CBs to be about positioning, teamwork and interceptions rather than last ditch heroic blocks. Stop the shot, don't block it?

Haha, yes, but he’s in the sane ball-park as most of his fellow CBs, just some benefitting from being around in the last 10 games when we put together a decent set of results.

Was that because Cundy was in / Kalas was out, or Klose playing central, etc, etc?  A classic scenario to test correlation or causation.

FWIW I’d like to think a back three of Kalas / Naismith / Atkinson is stronger than the current three.  Would like to see Kalas alongside a “talker / leader” like Naismith.

Hopefully we will get to see this at some point and judge accordingly.  Kalas ought to improve us aerially too.  Has a prodigious leap (if a bit clumsy) and with Naismith as the cover, TK ought to be able to attack the ball aggressively.

Re blocking, I think that’s just a reality of having to at points in a game.  I’m sure he doesn’t want to have to do it so much.

[chinapig]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Re blocking, I think that’s just a reality of having to at points in a game.  I’m sure he doesn’t want to have to do it so much.

Also I would guess a function of the number of shots we were allowing the opposition at the time, which is not just down to the defenders.

Prevention is better than cure.

[Curr Avon]

Goals scored + 8

Goals conceded + 5

Points + 1

[HappyClapper]

34 minutes ago, Curr Avon said:

Goals scored + 8

Goals conceded + 5

Points + 1

Interestingly (to me anyway) the 21/22 table at the end of September to the end of the season shows it taking shape at the top and bottom. Two of the top 3 going up automatically and 3 of the bottom four going down. Play off teams spread throughout.

 I wonder if the current table shows similar?

Sheff Utd and Norwich to go up?

Relegation 3 from the current 6/8? You would imagine West Brom and Middlesbrough will climb the table. The others I’m not so sure.

 

[Curr Avon]

2 hours ago, HappyClapper said:

Interestingly (to me anyway) the 21/22 table at the end of September to the end of the season shows it taking shape at the top and bottom. Two of the top 3 going up automatically and 3 of the bottom four going down. Play off teams spread throughout.

 I wonder if the current table shows similar?

Sheff Utd and Norwich to go up?

Relegation 3 from the current 6/8? You would imagine West Brom and Middlesbrough will climb the table. The others I’m not so sure.

 

Forest transformed their fortunes from 20th with 8 points after 10 games, to 4th with 80 at the season's end, taking 72 points from 36 games.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Curr Avon

[ExiledAjax]

2 hours ago, HappyClapper said:

Interestingly (to me anyway) the 21/22 table at the end of September to the end of the season shows it taking shape at the top and bottom. Two of the top 3 going up automatically and 3 of the bottom four going down. Play off teams spread throughout.

 I wonder if the current table shows similar?

Sheff Utd and Norwich to go up?

Relegation 3 from the current 6/8? You would imagine West Brom and Middlesbrough will climb the table. The others I’m not so sure.

Yeh, the table settles quite quickly in general. There are normally one or two outliers - Forest last season for example - who go on a big climb or slide but they are the exception not the rule. 

By the time you're at game 20ish - ie around Christmas - you're unlikely to see a team move more than 3 places in either direction. 

[HappyClapper]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh, the table settles quite quickly in general. There are normally one or two outliers - Forest last season for example - who go on a big climb or slide but they are the exception not the rule. 

By the time you're at game 20ish - ie around Christmas - you're unlikely to see a team move more than 3 places in either direction. 

So by the break for the World Cup we will likely have a good handle on how the table will finish and if we are playoff contenders. FWIW unless we are destabilised by the Jan window or have an horrific run of injuries I don’t think we will have a post Christmas collapse.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, HappyClapper said:

a post Christmas collapse

This is always the threat. You need to be careful of taking history as a definitive predictor of the future.

But, if we are settled in the top 10 at Christmas, and that position appears to be achieved on merit (ie we've not been really lucky in a load of games, are performing in line with expectations - as we just about are right now) then yes you'd have a case to be fairly confident of a top ten finish and with a fair wind and a bit of luck perhaps a charge into the top 6.

fivethrityeight crunch all sorts of numbers after every round of games to maintain a rolling prediction league. Currently they reckon we're on for 8th place, with an 18% chance of getting into the play-offs. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

As has been extensively discussed we've got a top 6 attack and a bottom 6 defence, so it all really depends on which of those fortunes changes first.

[Jerseybean]

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/we-finally-look-like-team-7626304?utm_source=bristol_live_newsletter&utm_campaign=bristol_city_fc_newsletter2&utm_medium=email