Remember, Remember, The 1st of November

[robinforlife2]

Between now and November 1st, we have 6 games, of which 4 of them are at home.

I think pre season, many fans would look at the games and have felt we would have said 9pts from these 6 fixtures would be achievable and not unrealistic. 

The position we find ourselves in, is that the next 6 games will mean we will have played 19 games and therefore we would be near enough at the mid point of the season. 
To not be in a relegation dogfight, you would hope that you would have at least 22pts on the board, anything below that is relegation form.

Our goal difference of -1 is better than all bar one of the teams below us, and level with the other, so in many ways if we sure up our defence, we should have some advantage over the teams below us.

That said we are 4pts ahead of West Brom and Huddersfield, who many will have argued should or would not likely find themselves in this position. With new managers and maybe a bit of form, you would fancy them to turn their season's around, and not be relegation candidates.

I personally feel the next 6 games will define our season.

We face only West Brom who are below us, and play 8th, 13th, 5th, 6th and 1st in that order in the other games.

Whilst pre season, it could have been expected to draw 9pts or thereabouts from these 6 fixtures, any less than 7pts would likely leave us in a position where a relegation battle is upon us.

For me Wednesday is crucial, we have to stop the rot, a 0-0 draw would actually be a good result but Preston will be full of confidence. Millwall are never easy, and West Brom away will be tough. The next three after this, will be extremely tough.

Being optimistic I would say a draw against Preston, and Millwall, before a loss to West Brom, a draw at Reading (a team we often do well against), before defeats to Swansea and Sheffield United. The way we are playing, this is all I can see us getting at best, which means after 19 games, we may only have 18pts.

This isn't meant to come across all doom and gloom, but the fact is, we have looked poor in our last three games, the defence is held together by a shoe-string. Weimann has gone missing, and our midfield is very ineffective at times. It comes to something when we are missing Matty James, a player who overall has been very poor for us, except on the odd occasion.

I hope we can turn this around and get the 7-9pts we realistically need from these fixtures, but I think that most fans will agree, that any less than 7pts from the next 6, and we are in a relegation battle.

[And Its Smith]

“Being optimistic I would say a draw against Preston, and Millwall, before a loss to West Brom, a draw at Reading (a team we often do well against), before defeats to Swansea and Sheffield United. The way we are playing, this is all I can see us getting at best, which means after 19 games, we may only have 18pts.”

Think you need to look up what optimistic means!

Edited October 10, 2022 by And Its Smith

[Davefevs]

Anywhere between 0 and 18 points (inclusive) is achievable.  I know fans love doing mini-game-chunk points predictions, I find them a bit futile, but each to their own.

FWIW 9 points from 6 games is 1.5 ppg and extrapolates to 69 pts over a season which would be top 8/9 most seasons.  We’ve only achieved that many points once since our return to the champ (70 pts in 18/19)!

Whether that is realistic is anyone’s guess, but 5 of the 6 games are against teams higher than us (according to OP) which makes me wonder why you’d set 9 pts from 6 games which would equate to 18/19 average???

Boringly, every game in the Championship is tough, especially for a team like us, so I’ll take each game as it comes and every point is likely to be well earned.

Sorry to be a killjoy. 

[robinforlife2]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Anywhere between 0 and 18 points (inclusive) is achievable.  I know fans love doing mini-game-chunk points predictions, I find them a bit futile, but each to their own.

FWIW 9 points from 6 games is 1.5 ppg and extrapolates to 69 pts over a season which would be top 8/9 most seasons.  We’ve only achieved that many points once since our return to the champ (70 pts in 18/19)!

Whether that is realistic is anyone’s guess, but 5 of the 6 games are against teams higher than us (according to OP) which makes me wonder why you’d set 9 pts from 6 games which would equate to 18/19 average???

Boringly, every game in the Championship is tough, especially for a team like us, so I’ll take each game as it comes and every point is likely to be well earned.

Sorry to be a killjoy. 

I said at the start of the season. Meaning not looking at the table now, but at the start of the season I suspect most fans would have expected 2 wins and 3 draws, or 3 wins from the next six. Right now, I would struggle to see us winning any of them. 

[daored]

19 minutes ago, robinforlife2 said:

I said at the start of the season. Meaning not looking at the table now, but at the start of the season I suspect most fans would have expected 2 wins and 3 draws, or 3 wins from the next six. Right now, I would struggle to see us winning any of them. 

I can’t see many points this week, Preston we always struggle against, ideally we would have played them when the fixture was originally due to be played as we were in form them and playing with confidence. Milwall, Rowett will set them up to expose our weakness and in the recent past has been quite successful at doing so. Can’t see either game being pretty on the eye , and if we’re to get anything we’ll going to have to fight and battle for every ball and deal with crosses better than we did Saturday 

[Davefevs]

56 minutes ago, robinforlife2 said:

I said at the start of the season. Meaning not looking at the table now, but at the start of the season I suspect most fans would have expected 2 wins and 3 draws, or 3 wins from the next six. Right now, I would struggle to see us winning any of them. 

That’s kinda my point, at the start of the season hardly any fans would be expecting a points return that would extrapolate to a point less than our best since returning to this division.

Of course there will be sequences during a season where we achieve 9 or better, we’ve already had one, but there will be periods where we don’t too. We average circa 7 points from 6 games in Nige’s rein / reign / rain!

Heres a pic of 6 game rolling average.

I like even number sequences because most of the time it will have even home and away.

Overall ppg over Nige’s time here is 1.15 (6.90 for 6 games).  It is generally trending up from season one.

The positive thing is that Nige normally gets a win (from somewhere!).

If you take the fact it took Nige 6 games to get to a 6 game rolling average, he’s had 68 of them (game 6-73 inc)…he’s had 12 sequences of 9 pts or more, 19 of 8 or more.

Apologies for some boring maths!!!  But perhaps is changes expectations that 9 points on average from 6 games is not the norm for Bristol City on average over 7 and a bit seasons. 9 points is “peak City”!!
 

edit: here’s the yellow graph drawn with the axis at 8 points per 6 game rolling average:

 

you can see how infrequently we achieve 9 points or more.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Davefevs

[ExiledAjax]

58 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Overall ppg over Nige’s time here is 1.15 (6.90 for 6 games).  It is generally trending up from season one.

The positive thing is that Nige normally gets a win (from somewhere!).

Ooh new graphics.

It's almost as if we are slowly but surely improving.

[italian dave]

21 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ooh new graphics.

It's almost as if we are slowly but surely improving.

 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

That’s kinda my point, at the start of the season hardly any fans would be expecting a points return that would extrapolate to a point less than our best since returning to this division.

Of course there will be sequences during a season where we achieve 9 or better, we’ve already had one, but there will be periods where we don’t too. We average circa 7 points from 6 games in Nige’s rein / reign / rain!

Heres a pic of 6 game rolling average.

I like even number sequences because most of the time it will have even home and away.

Overall ppg over Nige’s time here is 1.15 (6.90 for 6 games).  It is generally trending up from season one.

The positive thing is that Nige normally gets a win (from somewhere!).

If you take the fact it took Nige 6 games to get to a 6 game rolling average, he’s had 68 of them (game 6-73 inc)…he’s had 12 sequences of 9 pts or more, 19 of 8 or more.

Apologies for some boring maths!!!  But perhaps is changes expectations that 9 points on average from 6 games is not the norm for Bristol City on average over 7 and a bit seasons. 9 points is “peak City”!!
 

edit: here’s the yellow graph drawn with the axis at 8 points per 6 game rolling average:

 

you can see how infrequently we achieve 9 points or more.

The only table that matters is the league table. 

As I’m sure someone once famously said…

[A Horse With No Name]

3 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

“Being optimistic I would say a draw against Preston, and Millwall, before a loss to West Brom, a draw at Reading (a team we often do well against), before defeats to Swansea and Sheffield United. The way we are playing, this is all I can see us getting at best, which means after 19 games, we may only have 18pts.”

Think you need to look up what optimistic means!

That IS being optimistic. Can't see too many points coming from that batch of games.

[pongo88]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Anywhere between 0 and 18 points (inclusive) is achievable.  

Have you got any graphs to back up this rather bold statement?

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

Have you got any graphs to back up this rather bold statement?

I need to slap my own wrist….I should’ve said “0-18 inclusive, except 17”.

I found a 0, 2, 16 and 18

 

 

 

[The turtle]

4 hours ago, robinforlife2 said:

Between now and November 1st, we have 6 games, of which 4 of them are at home.

I think pre season, many fans would look at the games and have felt we would have said 9pts from these 6 fixtures would be achievable and not unrealistic. 

The position we find ourselves in, is that the next 6 games will mean we will have played 19 games and therefore we would be near enough at the mid point of the season. 
To not be in a relegation dogfight, you would hope that you would have at least 22pts on the board, anything below that is relegation form.

Our goal difference of -1 is better than all bar one of the teams below us, and level with the other, so in many ways if we sure up our defence, we should have some advantage over the teams below us.

That said we are 4pts ahead of West Brom and Huddersfield, who many will have argued should or would not likely find themselves in this position. With new managers and maybe a bit of form, you would fancy them to turn their season's around, and not be relegation candidates.

I personally feel the next 6 games will define our season.

We face only West Brom who are below us, and play 8th, 13th, 5th, 6th and 1st in that order in the other games.

Whilst pre season, it could have been expected to draw 9pts or thereabouts from these 6 fixtures, any less than 7pts would likely leave us in a position where a relegation battle is upon us.

For me Wednesday is crucial, we have to stop the rot, a 0-0 draw would actually be a good result but Preston will be full of confidence. Millwall are never easy, and West Brom away will be tough. The next three after this, will be extremely tough.

Being optimistic I would say a draw against Preston, and Millwall, before a loss to West Brom, a draw at Reading (a team we often do well against), before defeats to Swansea and Sheffield United. The way we are playing, this is all I can see us getting at best, which means after 19 games, we may only have 18pts.

This isn't meant to come across all doom and gloom, but the fact is, we have looked poor in our last three games, the defence is held together by a shoe-string. Weimann has gone missing, and our midfield is very ineffective at times. It comes to something when we are missing Matty James, a player who overall has been very poor for us, except on the odd occasion.

I hope we can turn this around and get the 7-9pts we realistically need from these fixtures, but I think that most fans will agree, that any less than 7pts from the next 6, and we are in a relegation battle.

That's being optimistic . Jeez.

Edited October 10, 2022 by The turtle

[aa_bcfc]

In my opinion Preston and Millwall are pivotal to our season. The confidence must be low after 1 point in the last 5 games. Positive results in the next 2 games will obviously improve it (and out points total) but poor performances and defeats and confidence will be rock bottom. 

[And Its Smith]

4 hours ago, CrackingCheeseGromit said:

That IS being optimistic. Can't see too many points coming from that batch of games.

3 games ago you’d have said different no doubt. So many times I’ve seen fans say we won’t get more than X points from next X games and been proved totally wrong.  Things can change so quickly as proved from going on a good run to a bad run recently.  If I’d said before norwich game we would get one point from next 5 you’d have probably called me a name !