James54De Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Pretty much as above. There is no way any study can “show” that any new manager bounce is “generally not much to do with the manager”. Absolutely no way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 I am so pleased I thought with title another fan had gone , don't give a flying about other clubs mangers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 53 minutes ago, James54De said: There is no way any study can “show” that any new manager bounce is “generally not much to do with the manager”. Absolutely no way. Fair enough. Better wording is perhaps: Studies have concluded that due to tendencies to regress to a statistical mean most bounces enjoyed by new managers would likely have occurred without that managerial change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 Dean Holden being linked with it this morning, blimey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redland Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 12 hours ago, And Its Smith said: Sacking a manager isn’t necessarily just something a board do to ‘look busy’. Sometimes it can have a revolutionary effect on a season. If WBA and Boro boards hadn’t made the changes it is unlikely they’d have dramatically improved their form And look at Nottingham Forest last season. In the bottom three when they sacked Houghton and under the new manager they ended up being promoted to the Premier League. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFCGav Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 The team will never be the same after this. SDE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Watts Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 12 hours ago, And Its Smith said: Personally I think if they’d kept Bruce they would have had a fair fewer points than they do now but it’s all about opinions Like you say, it's about opinions, but from speaking to a Newcastle fan who had to endure "Bruceball" for far longer than any of them wanted, even ignoring his past club allegiance, he was not surprised that WBA tanked. Bear in mind that (I think) they were in the hunt for automatic promotion when he joined and they finished mid table, with the slump continuing into this season I struggle to see how you think he'd have turned it around and got them winning more points than they now have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 hours ago, Percy Pig said: A quote from Simon Kuper, author of soccernomics- a book I read as part of my dissertation on this topic. Sacking a manager is just an expensive way for a board to "look busy". Here's some more stats for the statistically minded: three clubs will be relegated this season. Fact! "Regress to the mean," is all well and good, but three clubs will be relegated. And Huddersfield don't want to be one of them. But that’s where they are, in the bottom three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackofromSanJavier Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 14 hours ago, Tinmans Love Child said: 3 managers in a season spells relegation for me! 3 managers in a season (according to my anagram generator) spells 'Amie Anna snog 3 arses' for me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfcredandwhite Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 14 hours ago, pongo88 said: We’re only making plans for Nigel .... as quoted by a certain band from Swindon who were very popular back in the day. I have enjoyed a beer and music chat with Mr. Partridge a couple of times in our local Spanish Tapas bar! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Redland said: And look at Nottingham Forest last season. In the bottom three when they sacked Houghton and under the new manager they ended up being promoted to the Premier League. But the discussion dismissing the "new manager bounce" isn't saying "don't change manager", it's saying "don't expect every change in manager to result in an immediate short-term boost in results". Changing manager may well sometimes lead to a long term improvement in results. However, that is very different to assuming that a change will inevitably give an immediate short-term (most articles/studies look at a new manager's first five games) boost to results. Our own manager is one who, when he joined us, didn't generate a "bounce". However after two years of tough decisions we've improved immeasurably and results are coming. Thomas Frank is another nice example. Lost his first three matches, plus a further 5 of his next seven. Yet he's then led Brentford to promotion and stability in the Prem. For every "proof" of a short-term bounce there's examples that demonstrate it is bollocks. Edited February 9, 2023 by ExiledAjax 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Percy Pig said: I don't really understand where you think that's either been denied or ignored? Thanks for the contribution though. Thank you for yours. Not on this thread but very often people scoff at owners hiring and firing. What else can an owner do, when the transfer window yields no improvement? Just sit there and do nothing as the weeks pass and you're still in the bottom three, and the ruin of relegation looms large, and your post includes delightful thoughts such as: "Hope you get cancer" etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TammyAB Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 hours ago, GrahamC said: Dean Holden being linked with it this morning, blimey. God I hope so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 hours ago, GrahamC said: Dean Holden being linked with it this morning, blimey. If this happens I can see Huddersfield getting relegated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 18 hours ago, IAmNick said: They may well have fewer than they do now, I think you're probably right there - but statistically it's still likely their trajectory would have improved, that's all. If your 20 goal per season striker doesn't score for 10 games, then starts scoring again is it down to him wearing new boots? Or just him regressing back to his normal form? Same principle happens in medicine a lot. People get ill, start using some psuedoscience thing like homeopathy, and then assume that's what made them get better (when they're obviously going to shortly after getting ill in 99% of cases). Managers have an actual effect on the outcome of course so those examples above are a bit silly, but it's the same principle at heart. If you do worse at something than usual/expected for a while, high chances are you'll go back to your usual performance before too long. Same thing happens the other way around too of course! Gillian McKeith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 9 hours ago, GrahamC said: Dean Holden being linked with it this morning, blimey. He's only on a contract until the end of the season at Charlton, and I have a feeling this might be a move to put pressure on them to get him signed up for longer. Their fans are liking him a lot so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 49 minutes ago, Northern Red said: He's only on a contract until the end of the season at Charlton, and I have a feeling this might be a move to put pressure on them to get him signed up for longer. Their fans are liking him a lot so far. Charlton being spoken about in terms of a new owner as well. 99% of the time that means a change in manager. Holden may be looking to jump rather than be pushed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 9, 2023 Report Share Posted February 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Charlton being spoken about in terms of a new owner as well. 99% of the time that means a change in manager. Holden may be looking to jump rather than be pushed. Much, much closer to home, too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Watts Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 23 hours ago, Percy Pig said: I mean, he's achieved quite a few promotions from this division. Statistics suggest he would have. Statistics don't ever tell the full story, there are anomalies. But its the best and most logical evidence available. Certainly less likely to lie than the "eye test" or gut feeling. I'm not suggesting managers have no impact, I'm not suggesting that there aren't good and bad ones either, but the main impact is the ability (usually reflected in the wage bill) of a squad. Invariably bad form will be followed by good form, whether the manager is sacked or retained. It's why I never got too high on an LJ winning run or too low on a losing run. If that had been spread evenly across a season we'd have been far less bothered by it. The only consistency in football is the inconsistencies. Although, as you say, he's achieved a few promotions from this division, he's been on a decline for many years. 2016 was his last promotion and that was aided by parachute payments and a Premier League squad. Since then he's done nothing of note. I know they say form is temporary, class is permanent, but 7 years is an awful long temporary period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Watts Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Percy Pig said: Meh, I wasn't defending Bruce by the way, more making the point that their squad would have improved results eventually and under Coberan, unless they invest significantly in the summer, there results will drop to the average for their ability eventually. Statistics show that only 10% of all the managers since the 70's have overachieved compared to wage bill, quote below. Slightly outdated data, to be fair. But best available. Just referring to the quote, my guess is that the Liverpool and Man Utd quote is down to the youth systems at both clubs. The Liverpool Boot Room and the United class of 92 would have been comparatively lower earners is my guess. Certainly an interesting take for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Warnock until the end of the season. **** me, will he never retire? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Dante Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, GrahamC said: Warnock until the end of the season. **** me, will he never retire? It’s incredible. He’s based in the South West, for money has a lucrative media career including an “evening with” series which has visited several clubs and is clearly devoted to his wife. Yet he’s buggering off the other end of the country for another six months. Part of me respects how much he clearly loves football. But then I remember the football he plays, and realise he can’t love the game that much. I can only conclude that Ronnie Jepson has fallen on hard times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ska Junkie Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, GrahamC said: Warnock until the end of the season. **** me, will he never retire? You're joking? Where? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Huddersfield's last game is 8 May. 85 days away. Wonder how much he'll be paid for 85 days work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Huddersfield's last game is 8 May. 85 days away. Wonder how much he'll be paid for 85 days work. He'll be 124 years old by then wont he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 7th March Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 The good news: Cardiff more likely to be relegated with this appointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said: It’s incredible. He’s based in the South West, for money has a lucrative media career including an “evening with” series which has visited several clubs and is clearly devoted to his wife. Yet he’s buggering off the other end of the country for another six months. Part of me respects how much he clearly loves football. But then I remember the football he plays, and realise he can’t love the game that much. I can only conclude that Ronnie Jepson has fallen on hard times. Think I saw Kevin Blackwell with a little dog on a piece of string in Broadmead, the only explanation I can make of it. As for those who think he’ll keep them up, he was shite at Boro with money to spend, don’t bet on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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