XG When Ahead and Behind

[Silvio Dante]

Now there’s a title for a thread!

Heres a couple of interesting tables showing xG. When we’re ahead we are more likely to concede “better quality” chances (either individually or volume of chances) than have those chances ourselves - and we are one of the worst teams in the division on that metric. That suggests we may have an issue “managing” games out when in the lead.

We do have a better ability to create higher xG than opponents when we are behind, but interestingly it’s not markedly different from opponents - and we also have a better xG when ahead. That suggests a weakness in breaking teams down once they set up against us to protect a lead.

The other things that are interesting is just look at the top sides numbers when ahead - Leicester and Leeds numbers of capitalising when ahead are huge! And Ipswich when behind - they tend to concede early when they do, but this evidences the ability to come back.

Normal disclaimer: I hate xG as a measure of individual chances but as a collective data point, I do think it’s useful.

 

[Derek]

XG is meaningless rubbish made up by someone who thinks they are clever.

[Davefevs]

 

Silvio - the missing bit from FoxPunter is xG whilst drawing.  In the above you can see that we spend 59% of the game in a drawing game-state.  And some of those draws will be 0-0, ie all 90 mins.

Also here’s how many minutes in each game, but WDL - see right hand columns.

[RedRoss]

51 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Now there’s a title for a thread!

Heres a couple of interesting tables showing xG. When we’re ahead we are more likely to concede “better quality” chances (either individually or volume of chances) than have those chances ourselves - and we are one of the worst teams in the division on that metric. That suggests we may have an issue “managing” games out when in the lead.

We do have a better ability to create higher xG than opponents when we are behind, but interestingly it’s not markedly different from opponents - and we also have a better xG when ahead. That suggests a weakness in breaking teams down once they set up against us to protect a lead.

The other things that are interesting is just look at the top sides numbers when ahead - Leicester and Leeds numbers of capitalising when ahead are huge! And Ipswich when behind - they tend to concede early when they do, but this evidences the ability to come back.

Normal disclaimer: I hate xG as a measure of individual chances but as a collective data point, I do think it’s useful.

 

Think this is the issue. I see this not only when we score. We also struggle to cope initially after the restart from half time. I sort of dread that 5/10 minutes post goal or half time.