Christmas Comes Again for Mr P

[Kid in the Riot]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

What are we there then 10th/11th? 

[BTRFTG]

7 hours ago, Olé said:

Cut to the chase: 

As per yesterday’s demolition of a poor side, through the optimism much remains rotten in the State of Denmark.

BCH’s Operational losses were £22.4m (with little in the academy to offset those next period.)

The accounts cover the football clubs (men and women) and stadium, yet breakdown of the sizeable increase in Commercial income isn’t transparent. Events aside, one presumes ‘stadium rugby related income’ ( rent (?) advertising, food/drink sales,) are included (as might be ‘stadium rugby related costs’,) whilst ‘direct rugby income’ is excluded. If so, be thankful ‘Egg Chasers’ quaff a fair few quarts.

SL’s critics to note before next venting their spleens that were it not for his £220m+ beneficence this forum would be discussing nothing but memories. That figure includes a present net book value of £52m for land and buildings, so for those claiming he’s looking to ‘sell at a profit’, he’d need to achieve a sell price presently quoted for long-established, secure EPL outfits (and as we all appreciate City ain’t one of them.)

For those who badger on about ‘parachute payments’, consolidated income (£10m) sourced from fans of other clubs who watch their footy on TV again exceeded revenue through AG’s turnstiles.

Plus Ca Change….

 

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

What are we there then 10th/11th? 

Depends if you include Stadium wages.

[Davefevs]

Oooooh, ‘ell o @BTRFTG, not seen you on here for a while.  Merry Xmas.

[BTRFTG]

7 hours ago, Olé said:

I'd like to know who didn't pay us £275k! 

Don't exclude the possibility of an 'offset' - City's 'liability' to such party may have been reduced by an equivalent amount.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Welcome back @BTRFTG

Merry Christmas.

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

As per yesterday’s demolition of a poor side, through the optimism much remains rotten in the State of Denmark.

BCH’s Operational losses were £22.4m (with little in the academy to offset those next period.)

The accounts cover the football clubs (men and women) and stadium, yet breakdown of the sizeable increase in Commercial income isn’t transparent. Events aside, one presumes ‘stadium rugby related income’ ( rent (?) advertising, food/drink sales,) are included (as might be ‘stadium rugby related costs’,) whilst ‘direct rugby income’ is excluded. If so, be thankful ‘Egg Chasers’ quaff a fair few quarts.

SL’s critics to note before next venting their spleens that were it not for his £220m+ beneficence this forum would be discussing nothing but memories. That figure includes a present net book value of £52m for land and buildings, so for those claiming he’s looking to ‘sell at a profit’, he’d need to achieve a sell price presently quoted for long-established, secure EPL outfits (and as we all appreciate City ain’t one of them.)

For those who badger on about ‘parachute payments’, consolidated income (£10m) sourced from fans of other clubs who watch their footy on TV again exceeded revenue through AG’s turnstiles.

Plus Ca Change….

 

£280mish it could also be, Kieran Maguire added up Loans and amounts converts to equity and came to this.

£220m- no chance?? IMO top end as a decent Championship Club with infrastructure is £40-60m, Could have a heavily incentivised deal to go well beyond this, many options.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

What are we there then 10th/11th? 

Looking at what Dave excellently published, albeit only briefly..the Club expressly was £30m and Club and AGL £35m

Brentford included Promotion Bonuses so their base wage maybe was below £30m. Stated as £12m in this case.

8th or 9th I reckon based on a quick look at that.

*Bournemouth, Cardiff, Norwich, Nottingham Forest Reading, Stoke, Watford seem to have been definitively ahead

**Birmingham may or may not have been. Similarish iirc. We seem to have been £0.1m ahead of them for Club only!

***Brentford at £12m, similar basic probably..£12m Bonuses conditional on Promotion. Says £41-42m Total Wage Bill and presumably the £12m Promotion is a factor. 

Derby seem to have been lower than us but we can't be sure as they didn't publish for several years! Wycombe will have been lower because, well they're Wycombe.

[BTRFTG]

41 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

£280mish it could also be, Kieran Maguire added up Loans and amounts converts to equity and came to this.

£220m- no chance?? IMO top end as a decent Championship Club with infrastructure is £40-60m, Could have a heavily incentivised deal to go well beyond this, many options.

Exactly. So P&L is presently listed just over -£220m (plus since accounts ended we've still likely been losing £400k a week,) plus the £52m infrastructure included is up near your £280m, plus whatever profit SL's critics think he'll demand. For all the risks he's taken I'd expect at least a 20% premium, hence we're in a third of a billion territory. 

Ain't happening.

[Red Cyril 2]

10 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well done the Club, getting them out by January!

£0-5m Loss was my Forecast, fell within this.

So do we now have the money for Robins, a decent striker and keeper in the new year sales bonanza. And a serious go at the top 6 ?

[Mr Popodopolous]

23 minutes ago, Red Cyril 2 said:

So do we now have the money for Robins, a decent striker and keeper in the new year sales bonanza. And a serious go at the top 6 ?

It is a bit of a non-answer but it depends.

For one the Scott sale masked a whopping great loss of £23-24mish despite a Record Revenue.

What do you call a go exactly? How far..I reckon we can make an FFP loss of £29m this season probably..what sort of Fees, Wages and compensation for changing Manager are you thinking.

Maybe some one-off costs in there too that won't be replicated. Give me some ballpark ideas.

If we really wanted to I don't see why we couldn't go for broke but fail to get up and the loopholes of old don't exist.

We can spend some but yeah how much? Depends.

Edited December 31, 2024 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Ran out of time to edit but that is all IMO of course and could well be wrong @Red Cyril 2

[Davefevs]

Mr P - just looking at the £6m revenue uplift, are we making enough “profit” on that increased revenue?  Some of that was increased football pool and Solidarity payments (£0.8m), ie not our own doing.

Costs are down slightly, good….but £4m of that is by way of reduced amortisation, ie less investment in players last season.

To my mind, our “operation” is still way too costly.  We aren’t creating the extra £s efficiently enough.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Mr P - just looking at the £6m revenue uplift, are we making enough “profit” on that increased revenue?  Some of that was increased football pool and Solidarity payments (£0.8m), ie not our own doing.

Costs are down slightly, good….but £4m of that is by way of reduced amortisation, ie less investment in players last season.

To my mind, our “operation” is still way too costly.  We aren’t creating the extra £s efficiently enough.

Yes agreed Dave. Wages for AGL were 25% of Total Wage Bill in 2022-23 and usually fall in 20-25% bracket but some Other Costs remain stubbornly high.

I've mentioned it before but Agency Fees for Security must be ruinous..We seem to have a mix iof f the 2 but that could just be tinkering at the edges a bit...

Other Operating Expenses, comparable Stadia if there are many would be interesting to know. I remember in 2017-18, Derby had Wages and Amortisation of £51-52m...but a total Cost Base of £76mish- on an Income of £30m?? 

Do we hire the wrong Providers from a Cost v Delivery perspective..Sponsorship probably has less £ in vs out if that makes sense so more of that could reduce the cost of that extra Revenue. I'd love, sure you would and loads on here probably would, a chance to see the *Internal Books.

*If SL converted his total Debt to Equity that would assist but it isn't I think a true Gamechanger.

[TV Tom]

11 hours ago, redkev said:

Fair play to the posters who understand and analyse all this type of thing and understand it

But for me

WHHHHHOOOOOSSSHHH , straight over my head 

Same here but i love reading it, very impressed with the knowledge of some on this forum

[TV Tom]

11 hours ago, ashton_fan said:

Mehmeti's scored the same number of goals as TC this season

To be fair TC has had a lot less minutes on the pitch, his actual minutes per goals is one of the best in the division, that's not knocking Mehmeti's excellent achievement though 

[BTRFTG]

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yes agreed Dave. Wages for AGL were 25% of Total Wage Bill in 2022-23 and usually fall in 20-25% bracket but some Other Costs remain stubbornly high.

I've mentioned it before but Agency Fees for Security must be ruinous..We seem to have a mix iof f the 2 but that could just be tinkering at the edges a bit...

Other Operating Expenses, comparable Stadia if there are many would be interesting to know. I remember in 2017-18, Derby had Wages and Amortisation of £51-52m...but a total Cost Base of £76mish- on an Income of £30m?? 

Do we hire the wrong Providers from a Cost v Delivery perspective..Sponsorship probably has less £ in vs out if that makes sense so more of that could reduce the cost of that extra Revenue. I'd love, sure you would and loads on here probably would, a chance to see the *Internal Books.

*If SL converted his total Debt to Equity that would assist but it isn't I think a true Gamechanger.

Bristol Rugby Club's accounts are due soon and it will be interesting to see what they look like, it being impossible to deduce any of these accounts without transparency across the whole group. To note their last published accounts (to June 23) showed a £5m annual loss on £15m Turnover (unhelpfully no breakdown) with the group (SL) sitting on an amassed liability of £35m. Its impossible to ignore that  when considering at what price SL might dispose of City?

There's also little transparency into how income and costs from events staged at AG are accounted? Who promotes, takes revenue, pays whatever needs paying and (most importantly) pays when? I've heard first hand from somebody involved with one of the world's largest and most successful rock groups how, through creative accounting, they would bank and pay forward monies to ensure they were forever turning in losses around sectors of the globe until, that is, their monies arrived back in their minimal-tax advantaged homeland. It would be useful to see how much of the short term debt/credit is non-football related or how and when events staged impact 'football assessed' accounts?

[Phantom]

Interesting numbers 

 

[Hxj]

20 hours ago, Olé said:

I'd like to know who didn't pay us £275k! 

That was a company expense not a group expense, my best guess is costs of Women's Football

[cidercity1987]

2 hours ago, Phantom said:

Interesting numbers 

 

City generate more revenue than any other non parachute payments club. That's incredible.

I would like to say well done to SL for that aspect.

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

City generate more revenue than any other non parachute payments club. That's incredible.

I would like to say well done to SL for that aspect.

We did in 2022-23 as well, £36m or so.

Although Birmingham fans have been crowing in unrelated matters that they were Top last season..don't get me started on them. (HKSE numbers indicate £23-24m).

Well done to SL, it stands us in good stead.

Edited December 31, 2024 by Mr Popodopolous

[Olé]

35 minutes ago, Hxj said:

That was a company expense not a group expense, my best guess is costs of Women's Football

Written off as bad debt? Why would they not book it as an explicit loan and debt in BCWFC, the same as BCFC has against Pula or whoever the overall entity is!

[Bristol Rob]

I don't follow the numbers like some of you, but my thinking is...

Despite cost cutting under NP we still generate a loss of over 20mil a season that can only be offset by selling players.

[Spike]

21 hours ago, Mendip City said:

And also shows the importance of signing the right players at the right price…. Right now it looks as though £4m+ on Armstrong and Mayulu is dead money and is more money than we can afford to take punts on. They’ve neutralised the Conway money. I wonder whether their combined salary would have been enough to persuade TC to stay…

I don't think TC staying was an option, even had we taken the route of using those wages to give him what he wanted we'd then have a player on a much bigger wage than the other players at which point they'd probably all start looking for a payrise too. 

Ultimately the club couldn't offer TC the wages without potentially causing unrest amongst the rest of the squad which is probably why the club refuses to over pay players these days and sticks to its structure. 

I think losing TC was a huge blow, especially for the money he was on and I think when we have those kinds of talents we should be locking them down on longer contracts at an earlier point in development. Of course it's easy to say that and a whole other thing to identify it early and get them committed for a longer period but once that offer of bigger money from a club who can compete for a top 6 spot comes in its going to get out of control. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I reckon our baseline loss with the improved TV deal and hopefully no one-off costs again could be moving towards £15-20m prior to Player Sales..but we shall see.

[Hxj]

20 minutes ago, Olé said:

Why would they not book it as an explicit loan and debt in BCWFC

Probably because the prospect of getting the money back is far too remote to justify keeping the debt on the balance sheet.

[Mendip City]

11 minutes ago, Spike said:

I don't think TC staying was an option, even had we taken the route of using those wages to give him what he wanted we'd then have a player on a much bigger wage than the other players at which point they'd probably all start looking for a payrise too. 

Ultimately the club couldn't offer TC the wages without potentially causing unrest amongst the rest of the squad which is probably why the club refuses to over pay players these days and sticks to its structure. 

I think losing TC was a huge blow, especially for the money he was on and I think when we have those kinds of talents we should be locking them down on longer contracts at an earlier point in development. Of course it's easy to say that and a whole other thing to identify it early and get them committed for a longer period but once that offer of bigger money from a club who can compete for a top 6 spot comes in its going to get out of control. 

I get 100% what you’re saying. 

I do wonder whether strategies such as very restrictive salaries hold us back and perpetuate the cosy club. Why shouldn’t the top scorer earn more than the keeper or centre half - that’s just the way football is, isn’t it?
 

Conway is still on a Championship salary at a non-parachute payment (well run) club.  I think he left due to the lack of ambition here and ability to further his international career rather than money. 

The bottom line is we’ve lost a championship quality player and replaced with 2 players with no sell-on value, so we’ve, effectively thrown away the Conway money. We over paid for Armstrong who is turning out to be exactly the player he was at QPR. Mayulu is just an odd one. Recruitment needs to be better than this or not happen. Are we any better than if we’d relied on Wells, Cornick, Palmer-H and the returning Bell?  Probably not. 

 

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Spike said:

I don't think TC staying was an option, even had we taken the route of using those wages to give him what he wanted we'd then have a player on a much bigger wage than the other players at which point they'd probably all start looking for a payrise too. 

Ultimately the club couldn't offer TC the wages without potentially causing unrest amongst the rest of the squad which is probably why the club refuses to over pay players these days and sticks to its structure. 

I think losing TC was a huge blow, especially for the money he was on and I think when we have those kinds of talents we should be locking them down on longer contracts at an earlier point in development. Of course it's easy to say that and a whole other thing to identify it early and get them committed for a longer period but once that offer of bigger money from a club who can compete for a top 6 spot comes in its going to get out of control. 

From what I heard, he wasn’t asking for a wage that would’ve broken the club’s wage structure, not by any stretch.

And I think that kinda follows why Tinnion said “highest wage for his age”!

2 hours ago, Mendip City said:

Conway is still on a Championship salary at a non-parachute payment (well run) club.  I think he left due to the lack of ambition here and ability to further his international career rather than money. 

The bottom line is we’ve lost a championship quality player and replaced with 2 players with no sell-on value, so we’ve, effectively thrown away the Conway money. We over paid for Armstrong who is turning out to be exactly the player he was at QPR. Mayulu is just an odd one. Recruitment needs to be better than this or not happen. Are we any better than if we’d relied on Wells, Cornick, Palmer-H and the returning Bell?  Probably not. 

[Mendip City]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

From what I heard, he wasn’t asking for a wage that would’ve broken the club’s wage structure, not by any stretch.

And I think that kinda follows why Tinnion said “highest wage for his age”!

What really bugs me about these two is that they’re spoken about as if they’re rookies/ones for the future….. Armstrong has played 60-odd games at this level…. Did they really watch him? Did they really think he could suddenly improve? 
Mayulu has a full season in the top Austrian league…. We should know loads about him. 
if it’s more about character or attitude, well that’s a further failing of scouting and/or not having contacts in the right places. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Mendip City

[Davefevs]

21 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

What really bugs me about these two is that they’re spoken about as if they’re rookies/ones for the future….. Armstrong has played 60-odd games at this level…. Did they really watch him? Did they really think he could suddenly improve? 
Mayulu has a full season in the top Austrian league…. We should know loads about him. 
if it’s more about character or attitude, well that’s a further failing of scouting and/or not having contacts in the right places. 

Plus potentially the inability to judge ability effectively via video.

[Mendip City]

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Plus potentially the inability to judge ability effectively via video.

I do wonder how often eyes are used? Data is great for whittling down shortlists… but then, surely, every player must be watched a couple of times (minimum) by someone who’ll work closely with the player.  Gary Johnson used to effectively interview players, that always made sense to me. 
You’ll know much more about data than me but I guess we still don’t have body language, desire, team work or attitude data!

 

[Davefevs]

27 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

I do wonder how often eyes are used? Data is great for whittling down shortlists… but then, surely, every player must be watched a couple of times (minimum) by someone who’ll work closely with the player.  Gary Johnson used to effectively interview players, that always made sense to me. 
You’ll know much more about data than me but I guess we still don’t have body language, desire, team work or attitude data!

 

This is where everyone across the piece has to be clear what the manager is looking for / fit to how he wants to play.  I don’t know how we went from:

• Conway and Twine are perfect for each other, to
• Conway and Wells are too similar to each other, to
• We need a no9 to provide physicality (not a target man per se), can run, and stretch the pitch vertically, to go back to
• Wells and Bell as his “understudy”.

if you then overlay Armstrong and Mayulu as 1st and 2nd choice at the start of the season, you’ve got to question what Liam wanted in his head, and how he described his requirements, how they were interpreted, and how through the process we ultimately ended up with what we did for how he wanted to play.

If I’m being generous I’d say that preseason looked ok, but it wasn’t until we played Willem that his system really looked like it had some flaws.  But surely the signing of a twine would solve that?  Thankfully Nahki has performed well, because I think he’s helped the whole team…yet was 3rd choice preseason going into the opening half a dozen games.

I think there might be a “they’re not perfect, but I can coach them into what I want” arrogance from Liam.

[Jerseybean]

Media coverage, https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bristol-city-reduce-losses-remain-9831511

[Mr Popodopolous]

I can't recall if anyone has already covered it, but...

Anyway.

First and Second Other Borrowings Loans are salient here.

*Loan 1- Pertaining to AGL, 3% Fixed Interest Rate.

*Loan 2- Pertaining to Club, 3% Fixed Interest Rate.

*No Fixed Repayment Date for either.

There seems to be a Charge pertaining to the Club specifically as of August 2024 but nothing shows up in Post Balance Sheet Events- it could be the original £17mish one just reinforcing the Security.

Double counting, remaining on the 2 instead of 2 and a new one or if could be a 3rd?

 

Edited Friday at 17:51 by Mr Popodopolous

[chinapig]

On 02/01/2025 at 14:02, Jerseybean said:

Media coverage, https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bristol-city-reduce-losses-remain-9831511

The following quote from Rawcliffe struck me:

"Whilst we can be pleased with this set of financial results, we know a large sale is not easily repeatable, and we must therefore continually strive to obtain the best value for money throughout the business."

1. So Steve's claim that we can compete by raising £20m a year from sales was indeed ludicrous, and

2. Are we really striving given the level of non-football operating costs?

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, chinapig said:

The following quote from Rawcliffe struck me:

"Whilst we can be pleased with this set of financial results, we know a large sale is not easily repeatable, and we must therefore continually strive to obtain the best value for money throughout the business."

1. So Steve's claim that we can compete by raising £20m a year from sales was indeed ludicrous, and

2. Are we really striving given the level of non-football operating costs?

1) Steve for a financial guru backs the wrong horse often, it seems*. As well as Cotts and NP not backing them he also:

A) He seemed to continue to downplay the risk of FFP even when we were right in the middle of it in August 2022 

B) He raised brief hope(s) of Scott staying in his April 2023 interview pre Burnley.

C) He also seemed to have or purport a belief that NP or whoever would have a decent budget, presumably he seemed to believe that post Covid-19 FFP maybe looser back in Spring 2021..

D) He called Stoke a very well run club in an Interview in 2022, I could go on!

E) The Nest Egg nonsense.

*Elements of that are strategic I expect but elements are probably his true and yet vastly incorrect beliefs.

Edited Friday at 23:21 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

@Davefevs @chinapig @Hxj @ExiledAjax

Plus anyone else.

It won't be there yet but maybe tomorrow or Friday.

I'm predicting a £24-25m Wage Bill on the FC side and that will be inclusive too of the Women's side and costs of changes.

Maybe but I doubt it, there will be some stuff about the costs of Managerial Change and even Alexander.

Likewise the Post Balance Sheet Events pertaining to the below would be welcome, as well as for Transfer Activity in the Summer.