Barrs Court Red Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 I've sharpened the meat cleaver and stockpiled water. How prepared for the apocalypse are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slacker Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 Garage filled with cider-check. Have I forgotten anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 Got the box of LPs out of the loft. Good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 What's the symptoms? I have a bad back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrs Court Red Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 What's the symptoms? Man flu then death after your organs melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 Man flu then death after your organs melt. Better make an urgent appointment then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walshy Posted October 11, 2014 Report Share Posted October 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted October 11, 2014 Report Share Posted October 11, 2014 FRUIT BATS. They are to blame. Plus the sags, of course. TFR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 I'll put my mortgage on the government regretting not doing more sooner once its out of control here. If those unfortunate folks with Ebola were considered to be as dangerous as an idiot with a gun (they are to all intents) then we'd have a secure, coordinated approach re. flights in and out of the country. The EU should ban all flights from infected areas without a full screening (coordinated by us, paid for by the carrier) before take off. Of course there are counter-arguments but the risk is too high and we can't simply change our mind later once its in through the back door and out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted October 14, 2014 Admin Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 SARS, Bird Flu now Ebola. . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 There's not much you can actually do about a disease with a long incubation period during which you are contagious but have no symptoms. You just have to wait for it to burn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 There's not much you can actually do about a disease with a long incubation period during which you are contagious but have no symptoms. You just have to wait for it to burn out. Restrict movement has to be #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 Has anybody contacted Dustin Hoffman for the cure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gazred Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 If you are curious as to how this could all pan out, i can recommend this little game... http://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/22-plague-inc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 Restrict movement has to be #1. Yes, around the outbreak. That ship's sailed though. Border measures in the UK are just theatre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrs Court Red Posted October 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 The real problems will begin when people start to try to flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 There's not much you can actually do about a disease with a long incubation period during which you are contagious but have no symptoms. I thought with Ebola, you aren't contagious until you show symptoms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 The real problems will begin when people start to try to flee.Why's that then, mate? No more Public Services for you? A controversial line I'll bring to the table: Mother Nature has generally decided, throughout history, when to make a cull. Whether that be the Black Death, Cancer or Ebola. I was gonna elaborate on that but don't know if I can. I'd pigeon-hole myself as 'Middle', politically. She's a cruel Mistress is Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 I thought with Ebola, you aren't contagious until you show symptoms? The early symptoms are the same as a common cold and the time people become contagious varies. The point is you can't really detect it at a border, you have to fence in the outbreak completely and in the countries that suffered the initial cases that is very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted October 14, 2014 Report Share Posted October 14, 2014 The early symptoms are the same as a common cold and the time people become contagious varies. The point is you can't really detect it at a border, you have to fence in the outbreak completely and in the countries that suffered the initial cases that is very difficult. I agree that it's got to be incredibly difficult to detect at a border. I think what worries me the most is that, as you say, the initial symptoms are similar to the common cold. When Ebola arrives in the UK (as it surely will) catching a cold over the coming winter is probably something that many people will shit themselves about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrs Court Red Posted October 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Why's that then, mate? No more Public Services for you? A controversial line I'll bring to the table: Mother Nature has generally decided, throughout history, when to make a cull. Whether that be the Black Death, Cancer or Ebola. I was gonna elaborate on that but don't know if I can. I'd pigeon-hole myself as 'Middle', politically. She's a cruel Mistress is Mother Nature. Once you have hundreds of thousands, or even millions of people on the move, all ability to track, trace and contain is lost. This disease has an incubation period of 21 days, so potentially a carrier can pretty much cover the world in that time by any powered transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Dartanion and the three musketeers would've loved that shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedM Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think they said on the news yesterday that the 3 countries who have Ebola in Africa don't have any direct flights to London, the passengers will come via other countries instead. People might hold a passport from one of the affected countries but thy can say they haven't been there for years. I think if they have the money to travel they will see the UK with our health care as the best option for treatment. How many of those forms at Heathrow are going to be filled in honestly? Desperate times make desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipdawg Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 It's actually very difficult to transmit Ebola; there has to be a direct exchange of bodily fluids (a kiss, sneezing in someone's face, etc.); just walking past someone- or even brushing against them- is unlikely to result in transmission. Even sharing the recycled air of an aeroplane is not massively risky (though sitting next to them probably wouldn't be great). All bar one case to have been treated in the west have been related to medical or missionary work and have been controlled at source. Add to this the fact that this is overwhelmingly affecting poor West Africans who will never, ever, ever travel on a plane and you have a relatively low risk to the population here, when all factors are taken into consideration. If you take the basic model of risk, Severity x Likelihood = Risk, then while the severity is fairly high, the likelihood is low so the risk is relatively low. I would certainly argue that if you applied this model to one of the Asian flu strains of recent years, the enhanced global mobility of people in Korea, China, etc. would make them a higher risk to the general populous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think they said on the news yesterday that the 3 countries who have Ebola in Africa don't have any direct flights to London, the passengers will come via other countries instead. People might hold a passport from one of the affected countries but thy can say they haven't been there for years. I think if they have the money to travel they will see the UK with our health care as the best option for treatment. How many of those forms at Heathrow are going to be filled in honestly? Desperate times make desperate measures.People can, technically, travel to the UK from West Africa via countries like Belgium and Holland, apparently. Think chipdawg has spoken an awful lot of sense, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think if they have the money to travel they will see the UK with our health care as the best option for treatment. How many of those forms at Heathrow are going to be filled in honestly? Desperate times make desperate measures. Screening at Airports has been dismissed as an effective way to stop viral infections entering the country by people high up in health organisations who know what they are talking about. I'm sure it's just a measure put in place to try and comfort the general public that a barrier is being put up even though that barrier can be easily avoided if you are in the incubation period of Ebola and showing no symptoms. You've made a good point about the questionnaire...1) you may not be aware that you have come into contact with someone with Ebola so you won't disclose it. 2) you may know you HAVE come into contact with someone with Ebola but you may choose not to answer honestly because you may be fearful of the action the authority's may take. People will fill in forms dishonestly if the think they can get away with it. Chipdawg is correct, the transmission of Ebola is quite difficult compared with other viral illnesses. I did hear an interesting theory on TV the other night from a viral expert who believes that Ebola will evolve in future to have a lower mortality rate (5%) but be much easier to pass on to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrs Court Red Posted October 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Whats the mortality rate for flu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Whats the mortality rate for flu? According to the internet it's less than 1%* (* this may not be accurate and depends on the strain I guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipdawg Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Whats the mortality rate for flu? Spanish influenza killed between 10-20%, but obviously that's a worst case scenario. Bird flu varieties have had a mortality rate around 1-2%. Ebola currently has a mortality rate around 50% but Ebola has infected approximately 9000 people in about 6 months which considering how densely populated places like Freetown are, indicates that it's not especially virulent. Over here, for example, Ebola would spread even less quickly because of increased practical and social cleanliness and improved medical care. Given levels of medical care and malnutrition in west Africa, I don't think it's unreasonable to hypothesise that a virulent influenza with low immunity in the general population would have killed more in the that population group over the same period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted October 15, 2014 Report Share Posted October 15, 2014 Everyone is missing 'the elephant in the room'. FRUIT BATS. We may find them repulsive, but just like ISIL, we need to get around the table and negotiate with these animals. TFR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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