ollywhyte Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Interesting article - in my opinion the team who is top will always deserve to be there but still nice to see a different view. Has us standing pretty strong amongst the others, but listed as one of the biggest underachievers in terms of expected goals, perhaps tells us the missing link is indeed a striker! https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11546482/who-deserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 See Experimental361's xG graph from the weekend. Essentially, based on xG, we should have won 2-1. Likewise the loss to Stoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted November 7, 2018 Admin Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I've tried rotating my laptop but the charts still look like gibberish to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOTBLUE Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I wish football was played on paper,unfortunately for us , it’s played on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Who deserves to be top of the championship?.....................Us of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Our two best victories 3-0 and 4-1 perhaps should’ve been 1-1 and 2-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, ollywhyte said: Has us standing pretty strong amongst the others, but listed as one of the biggest underachievers in terms of expected goals, perhaps tells us the missing link is indeed a striker! We have capable strikers but not even Thierry Henry or Alan Shearer would score many without decent service.........It’s a tired comment but our midfield simply lacks creativity - we all can see it but it seems LJ doesn’t see it. Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong in the winter window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, NOTBLUE said: I wish football was played on paper,unfortunately for us , it’s played on grass. Except at The Mem where it is played in the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOTBLUE Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, cidered abroad said: Except at The Mem where it is played in the sky! There’s always an exception to the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 49 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Our two best victories 3-0 and 4-1 perhaps should’ve been 1-1 and 2-1? Or there's even an argument that QPR should have won 1-0. I was at that game and yes we were atrocious in the first half, and QPR missed an almost open goal in the second (the spike in their line at around 63 minutes), so it's no surprise that when compared to the xG we rather got away with it. At the time I recall thinking 3-1 was flattering to us. I think what the stats show, if anything, is that if we are to win matches playing as we now play then the thing that needs improvement is our finishing. Something common across all four graphs on this thread is that our "steps" are small, but many. What that suggests is that although we might generate a lot of shots and chances....they don't tend to be particularly good. Therefore for us to convert those chances we will need strikers with good finishing talent. We have a high xG because we create many chances of low quality (was it 21 shots vs Reading?). Lots of those add up, and over a season enough will come off to keep us safe. However, to seriously start scoring (and winning) we need to either: a) create better chances that our poor strikers have a chance of finishing; or b) find someone (maybe Eisa, maybe a new January signing) who is capable of making the most of crap service. I think that is what we can draw out form this xG malarkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, ollywhyte said: Interesting article - in my opinion the team who is top will always deserve to be there but still nice to see a different view. Has us standing pretty strong amongst the others, but listed as one of the biggest underachievers in terms of expected goals, perhaps tells us the missing link is indeed a striker! https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11546482/who-deserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship …...hmm, I think I've been blinded by bull shite! ...… oops, I mean science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Couple of sites I've seen reckon we should be 4th or 5th, albeit with Sheffield United and Leeds pulling away a bit. Leeds and Sheffield United being a worthy top 2 at this stage- based on what I've seen of the League- would sound about right. We have missed a lot of chances tbh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBW Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 It's not what you deserve, it's what you earn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Whether people buy the metrics or not, hitting the woodwork 11 times does suggest that with a bit more luck- or a bit more precision- we would have a few more points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 These graphs only really prove one thing.... why top strikers are worth so much money and why every club is competing to get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said: These graphs only really prove one thing.... why top strikers are worth so much money and why every club is competing to get them. or find your own, like we did with Reid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longyears Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 As Clint Eastwood once famously said = what's deserve got to do with anything ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der no.2 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, longyears said: As Clint Eastwood once famously said = what's deserve got to do with anything ! “Deserve ain’t worth Moose tits.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, pillred said: or find your own, like we did with Reid. Of course. And why someone who scores goals for one season is suddenly worth £10million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lack of Action Man Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 What all of these graphs and xG statistics show is that football often does not go the way you want it to, or the way it should do. It simply goes to whoever scores more goals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Based on the presser today - Hi Mr. Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivorguy Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Answer is simple: The team that wins the most points by season's end. The rest is just pseudo science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, OddBallJim said: What all of these graphs and xG statistics show is that football often does not go the way you want it to, or the way it should do. It simply goes to whoever scores more goals! Ultimately true yes, but the challenge also is to improve the finishing- hit the woodwork 11 times in 16 games and you're swimming against the tide hugely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 hours ago, Bar BS3 said: Of course. And why someone who scores goals for one season is suddenly worth £10million. let's hope we get lucky again, and hopefully hold on to them a bit longer, though it's hard with all the sky money some teams have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS4 on Tour... Posted November 8, 2018 Report Share Posted November 8, 2018 The team with the most points.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red7 Posted November 8, 2018 Report Share Posted November 8, 2018 On balance, I'd say Leeds. But I may change my mind over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lack of Action Man Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 On 07/11/2018 at 23:25, Mr Popodopolous said: Ultimately true yes, but the challenge also is to improve the finishing- hit the woodwork 11 times in 16 games and you're swimming against the tide hugely. I see what you're saying, but football is a sport that varies game to game. I don't think it's necessarily as simple as 'improving the finishing' - there is so many variables that account for why a goal either is or isn't scored. For example, the keeper may have a blinder because all week in training he worked on saving the type of shots that our players are most likely to take. Or, he may make an absolute howler because he was sleep-deprived from being up until 3am the night before the game because his new-born child wouldn't stop crying! The same applies for the other 10 players that make up a team. The thing is, whilst the xG statistic is a nifty piece of statistical work it simply can't account for all the variables that take place in a game of football. Sure, we can say that in certain situations a goal is 'likely' to be scored, but as those Christmas blooper DVDs show there are always instances when a goal is a certainty and somehow the striker contrives to miss. Ultimately, what really matters is the points on the board and your actual position in the table. xG-based tables (for me) do nothing other than to lend credence to pub arguments about the football league being upside down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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