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reddogkev

Is promotion a realistic aim for City?

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2 hours ago, reddogkev said:

 

1) Selling best players too frequently  

It's important to note this is actually a club policy.

Good scouting, combined with a structure of player progression and development is embedded into the club's business model. 

It's working. Yes it's hard to let our talent pool move on, but this is how you force yourself everyday to work hard. 

Scouting - identify talent

Coaching - improve player

Player - game time shop (window)

Mark Ashton - negotiate best deal

So the cycle continues. Expect CoD Webster Brownhill to move on for vastly more than we paid for them. 

You can't do that with journeyman players looking for final pay day. The club have got it right. 

Good topic OP

Stevo 

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I think the playoffs are more than reasonable. If we continue to progress we can definitely finish in a good enough space in the next few years, and barring any managerial changes or wobbles in form, we can definitely have a crack at it.

My problem with pushing for the playoffs is that you're condensing an entire season down to a knockout competition, and if you spend years pushing for the playoffs, only to fall at the final hurdle you're not much better off than you were before.

IMO, we need to be aiming for automatic promotion, and that would mean that we need to be in a position we were can say within the first ten games of the season, we are one of the best teams in this league, and we have the quality and depth to sustain a push towards Premier League football.

We're actually one of the few teams in the Championship that I feel could do well in the Premier League. We have a long-term plan, a rich owner, an idealistic coach that wants to manage at the highest level, and a young squad that would be eager to show their ability at this level. If we were to reach the Premier League, I can see Lansdown having one last hurrah and giving LJ all the first-choice players he needs to stay up and compete long-term, regardless of cost. We won't do a Fulham and spunk money up the wall on a whole team rebuild, but LJ will get Premier League quality where it is needed.

All of that is fantasy-land, though We need to be in a position to be one of the best teams throughout the whole season first, and that means starting well, and maintaining that form to the end of the season.

Edited by EnderMB
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5 hours ago, reddogkev said:

I've been thinking for a while about our expectations and standing in the game.  We have come on leaps and bounds in recent years and thankfully we are an established Championship outfit, but are we a viable promotion contender?

Are we a team likely to even make the top six?  After a few days of contemplation, I'd say it is very unlikely.

Of course, it's what we all clamour for as long-standing City fans, but is it fair to expect this for the club?  Quite often, people on OTIB and in general conversation talk about our aims for the top six and promotion.  I myself have the same ambition, but I've stopped for a moment to ask what that is based on.  We haven't been in the top flight since the early 70's and don't pay big money for the good players.  We don't keep our top players for more than a season or two at this level, and it wouldn't surprise me if we sold Webster and Brownhill in the not too distant future. 

Based on the fact we often sell our top players and don't tend to replace with Championship quality (Adelukan, Eissa, Watkins, for example), it seems an unreasonable expectation for City to push for the promotion spots.  Until we stop selling our quality players and find a way to get them to stay at City, sadly, promotion will always be an unlikely objective.

Still, this is no reason to be downbeat; the challenge of competing in a highly unpredictable Championship league, peppered with quality teams and exceptional players, will always be an exciting one.  And even though it seems unreasonable to expect promotion with the current model of Bristol City, it doesn't mean it's impossible.

What are your thoughts?  Agree with my comments, or disagree? 

 

 

We were relegated from the top flight in the eighties, well 1980 to be exact.

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This thread raises something that I think this forum often misses; the difference between:

An aim/goal

An expectation

A hope

A minimum

You could argue all of these are different.  I would say:

The aim/goal is promotion

The expectation is city challenge for a top 6 position

The hope is automatic promotion

The minimum is probably comfortable safety

How these things are phrased are of importance if we are to avoid infighting....

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2 hours ago, Sturny said:

Nobody is arguing about the progress 🙄 But the statement that finishing 8th is considered nearly promoted is daft. Do you consider Middlesbrough nearly promoted? If you do, then okay we'll agree to disagree. Hardly anyone outside Bristol CIty considers us a team that were "nearly promoted" last season. 

Teams like Derby/West Brom/Leeds were nearly promoted, arguably some more than others. 

You're not getting the logic because you're not reading. 

As a team that the BBC described as overachieving, they said we were in with a chance of making the play offs until the last game, that's not promotion but a lot closer than the vast majority of the other teams.

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3 hours ago, INCRED said:

Selling our best players for good fees is ok providing the funds are reinvested in similar or better players

Bryan/Dasilva - Yes

Flint/Webster - Yes

Reid/Weimann - No

2 out of 3 ain’t bad

Hopefully this summer the club are bold and recruit wisely

Arguably, Reid could have been a one season wonder to an extent. He only got 5 goals this season, albeit in a poor squad. Weimann on the other hand has not had a bad season and has largely been played out wide not through the middle, still scoring 9 in 36. Making an £8 mill profit on the deals I think isn't a bad deal

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2 hours ago, paul_fox said:

We're only 2-3 quality players, striker, midfielder, right back away from getting into the top 6 and if we can sort out out consistency. 

Agreed but as I said earlier, not enough depth in the squad yet. We need someone in each position, banging on the first team door to be let in. It takes time, especially if we're relying on Academy products.

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1 hour ago, City18 said:

Arguably, Reid could have been a one season wonder to an extent. He only got 5 goals this season, albeit in a poor squad. Weimann on the other hand has not had a bad season and has largely been played out wide not through the middle, still scoring 9 in 36. Making an £8 mill profit on the deals I think isn't a bad deal

I wasn’t saying Weimann didn’t have a bad season, just comparing like for like with BR who scored 20 goals in the previous season 

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5 hours ago, wendyredredrobin said:

Promotion will only be a possibility if we can get a centre forward who can do things like run, jump, score goals and hold his own against strong defenders.  Those qualities don't come cheap though.

The desirable forward doesn't have to be physical- goals, movement and technical ability as well as pace or a decent workrate of course can suffice. The physicality thing while important, isn't a deal-breaker.

Vydra on loan would tick a fair few boxes- lacking in physicality though. Maupay certainly would...Adams would be great, Gayle- the last 3 are out of price range though. The first? May not be.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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13 minutes ago, INCRED said:

I wasn’t saying Weimann didn’t have a bad season, just comparing like for like with BR who scored 20 goals in the previous season 

Do you factor in assists, the 3-4  wrongly disallowed goals, the fact Weimann played more than one position and indeed wasn't unlike Reid an ever-present?

Now that is no slight on Reid- he was great for us, and actually arguably under and wrongly used at Cardiff- he got some assists there too. Tammy who everyone raves about had similar underlying stats to Reid in PL. For Swansea, we can also take Cardiff.

Also, 3 of Reid's goals were penalties- and with a penalty you have a much more realistic chance of scoring- Weimann so far as I recall had zero pens.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Do you factor in assists, the 3-4  wrongly disallowed goals, the fact Weimann played more than one position and indeed wasn't unlike Reid an ever-present?

Now that is no slight on Reid- he was great for us, and actually arguably under and wrongly used at Cardiff- he got some assists there too. Tammy who everyone raves about had similar underlying stats to Reid in PL. For Swansea, we can also take Cardiff.

Also, 3 of Reid's goals were penalties- and with a penalty you have a much more realistic chance of scoring- Weimann so far as I recall had zero pens.

I didn’t, just a plain old straightforward goals scored comparison

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1 minute ago, INCRED said:

I didn’t, just a plain old straightforward goals scored comparison

Fair. In terms of pure goals there's no comparison as to who was best by far, but many factors make it less clearcut.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fair. In terms of pure goals there's no comparison as to who was best by far, but many factors make it less clearcut.

Agree, I suppose if you look at the all round progress then the 3 players we sold for big bucks and the 3 we brought in, the latter 3 managed to help get the team to 8th as opposed to 11th by the former 

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I prefer to ignore the play off scenario, as anyone can go up through that scenario, and be miles off the points of first and second.

We need to aim for top two...not the play offs imo.

As for fans expectations, in general I think many fans think we are bigger than we are.

However imo, we are stronger than we've ever been. 

Just needs everything to connect. 

At the start of the season I don't think anyone would have put Norwich and Sheffield Utd above so much bigger teams.

So yes it's possible...but not expected.

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Now it’s time to push - we have a stable manager and coaching team. LJ now has decent experience and his decision making was better last year. If we retain the defence, add an upgrade to the midfield and bolster up front we will be close. 

This league is so competitive though it’s impossible to say really

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9 hours ago, Robbored said:

Of course it’s realistic. 

City got pretty close last season, missing out on the pray-offs on the last match of the season and with the obvious weaknesses being addressed this summer we’ll be a serious contender next season.

7/1 is still a bit measly tho........

No big deal, its realistic for most teams in this div including those that came up, remember our first season here?

We have already lost one of our best young prospects and could easily lose 4/5 more of last seasons starters; another rebuild is bound to happen how far that will get us depends on the quality of the incomings.

It will be difficult to improve again but obviously not impossible.......we will see.

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