Davefevs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said: What's QPR's "expected goals" compared to ours? Cos if they're creating 10 times the chances we are... Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats: in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch. 13 goals from 7.65 xG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distortia Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 47 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats: in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch. 13 goals from 7.65 xG. Do you have a Wyscout subscription, Dave? Assuming I’m right in saying that’s the platform in the photo. I’ve always wanted one but can’t justify the cost really as I would only use it as a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 hours ago, bcfc01 said: Due to the lack of movement in front of them maybe ? Anyway, to back up KITR stats (league only); Diedhiou; Minutes played 1616 Goals scored 7 Goal every 231 minutes Wells; Minutes played 1617 Goals scored 13 Goal every 124 minutes So going from Fam who essentially scores 1 in 3 to Wells who is a 1 in (less than) 2 player. It's a big upgrade based on those figures. 48 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats: in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch. 13 goals from 7.65 xG. He's quite frankly better in most areas. Shots on target % of nearly 60%? Yes please. You might need to dig deeper and see if he's getting incredibly easy chances - but then again we have very high xG per shot on target stats this season which means we are creating "easy" chances already. Get a bloke who hits the target 60% of the time taking shots that have a near 40% chance of going in anyway and I'd humbly expect to see a serious up tick in the number of goals scored column. Could that offset the leaky defence? Maybe. Defensively his stats are worse but that could easily be down to how he's been deployed and what he's asked to do at QPR. I don't watch them enough to really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, Distortia said: Do you have a Wyscout subscription, Dave? Assuming I’m right in saying that’s the platform in the photo. I’ve always wanted one but can’t justify the cost really as I would only use it as a hobby. Yes I do....but I don’t use it anywhere near enough. I’m on an old subscription tariff of €12 p/m, which I don’t believe they promote anymore. They do a 14 day trial. I’m probably not getting value for money at the mo’, but useful for clips etc....and for proving points on OTIB (Priceless)!! Hobby for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: So going from Fam who essentially scores 1 in 3 to Wells who is a 1 in (less than) 2 player. It's a big upgrade based on those figures. He's quite frankly better in most areas. Shots on target % of nearly 60%? Yes please. You might need to dig deeper and see if he's getting incredibly easy chances - but then again we have very high xG per shot on target stats this season which means we are creating "easy" chances already. Get a bloke who hits the target 60% of the time taking shots that have a near 40% chance of going in anyway and I'd humbly expect to see a serious up tick in the number of goals scored column. Could that offset the leaky defence? Maybe. Defensively his stats are worse but that could easily be down to how he's been deployed and what he's asked to do at QPR. I don't watch them enough to really know. Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!! Agree...although the counter argument could be that he's just had a massive purple patch. Is he converting at a rate way above the average for strikers in our division? If so then it's very possible, even likely, that he'll drop off that rate and return to the average xG rate of 7 - 8 goals.But would you take a (late) January signing scoring 7 - 8 goals? Yes you would. Edit: although that's presumable 7.65 goals across 1693 minutes - equivalent to 0.4 goals per 90. Assume (if he signs at all - must remember he's not our player) he signs on 31 Jan. That's 17 matches remaining so 6-7 goals reasonably expected if he played the full 90 of every game...yeh I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fpcity Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!! With him in a city shirt we won't be hearing the commentators saying " oh he's missed a sitter or he really should've scored" like we hear every game now. I was looking at the top scorers in the championship and pretty sure everyone else with 9+ goals, same as Weimann we'd have no chance of signing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Agree...although the counter argument could be that he's just had a massive purple patch. Is he converting at a rate way above the average for strikers in our division? If so then it's very possible, even likely, that he'll drop off that rate and return to the average xG rate of 7 - 8 goals.But would you take a (late) January signing scoring 7 - 8 goals? Yes you would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 We don’t need stats to know that Wells is far superior to our current strikers. Been plain to the naked eye for years. Edit. But I do like the stats tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc01 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Harry said: We don’t need stats to know that Wells is far superior to our current strikers. Been plain to the naked eye for years. Nice to have something to back up the eyes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, bcfc01 said: Nice to have something to back up the eyes though If you watch the Brentford video I posted earlier, you’ll see Thomas Frank say that he uses his eyes first and then data to prove it. He says his eyes are usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 hours ago, bcfc01 said: Correct; Mitrovic; Minutes played 2330 Goals scored 18 Goal every 129 minutes Watkins; Minutes played 2518 Goals scored 18 Goal every 140 minutes Bowen; Minutes played 2520 Goals scored 16 Goal every 158 minutes Grabban; Minutes played 2299 Goals scored 15 Goal every 153 minutes Didn't realise Marley was doing so well. When did we let him go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc01 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, cheese said: Didn't realise Marley was doing so well. When did we let him go? If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Davefevs said: Yes Mate. So basically he's had a mad season of massively outperforming both his own xG and the average xG of strikers in this division (haven't calculated it but it looks like it's around 0.35-0.4 goals per 90). So even if he was going along at his expected rate of 0.41 he'd still be an above average striker, and would still be expected to score more per 90 than Weimann. Interestingly about the same as you'd expect Fam to score - and that's where we see the limitations of stats. Tell you what though - that Afobe lad at the bottom of your list...I know its a small sample size but .5 xG and .5 goals per 90...phwoar - hope we're scouting him. @Davefevs Painful seeing how few shots Fam and Andi take as well - both around 2 per 90. Compare that to the top strikers, and those that play for top teams and all are well above 2 with some clearing 3 per 90. might not sound like a huge difference but %wise it's massive. Grabban the only one with 10 goals but a shot rate of less than 2 per 90. Look at that next to their conversion rates and i think it's a blatant indicator that LJ is compensating for poor finishing ability by telling them to only shoot from very good positions. Personally I think this hampers Fam - I'd be telling him to be a little more trigger happy. 2 hours ago, Harry said: We don’t need stats to know that Wells is far superior to our current strikers. Been plain to the naked eye for years. Edit. But I do like the stats tho Harry, I use stats to tell me whether my eyes are deceiving me or not. Analyse with your eyes, form your hypothesis, then see if the stats support you or not. Keeps me sane when we're in the midst of an LJ streak (either good or bad). Edit: we've strayed miles off topic. Get well soon Benik, and fyi everyone the stairs charity team smashed their goal and so far are well over the 2 grand mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS4 on Tour... Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, CiderJar said: Fantastic to see Benik getting back, with a hint of a smile on his face, after going through hell in both his professional and personal lives - I really hope he can keep going and stay strong - on both fronts ... top man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up The City! Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 On 22/01/2020 at 15:37, Dan Robin said: Glad to hear that Benik is recovering well, probably faster than we thought, but honestly I would be surprised to see him involved in many matches, after such a heavy injury. That's why getting another striker remains essential. Be prepared to be surprised. He will be back by the end of the season, no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up The City! Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 On 22/01/2020 at 20:44, Davefevs said: If you watch the Brentford video I posted earlier, you’ll see Thomas Frank say that he uses his eyes first and then data to prove it. He says his eyes are usually right. Where as it seems LJ does the complete opposite these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 On 22/01/2020 at 14:26, Kid in the Riot said: Wells is scoring a goal every 124 minutes at QPR. Fam a goal every 210 minutes. Weimann a goal every 272 minutes. Could make quite a significant difference. If we create more chances. As has been pointed out our goals to chances ratio is high. What is QPRs chances created per game ratio compared to ours? The bloke could be the difference, maybe! However the extra competition would be welcome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 44 minutes ago, Up The City! said: Be prepared to be surprised. He will be back by the end of the season, no doubt about it. Still long way to go, if he hasn’t started running yet. He’s about 3 months into his rehab, so bang on target...running 12-16 weeks in. But as a pro, he’s gonna get best rehab, and opportunity to do as much as he needs to, whereas I had to fit it in around work. Crucial stage, how his need responds to running and impact. Good luck Benik. You can’t help but admire him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up The City! Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Still long way to go, if he hasn’t started running yet. He’s about 3 months into his rehab, so bang on target...running 12-16 weeks in. But as a pro, he’s gonna get best rehab, and opportunity to do as much as he needs to, whereas I had to fit it in around work. Crucial stage, how his need responds to running and impact. Good luck Benik. You can’t help but admire him. I didnt know this previously but heard on the radio yesterday that when a player is injured it is ultimately up to him what treatment he does and where he receives his rehab, ultimately many choose to do it with their clubs but the likes of Pogba etc who have endless amounts of cash can go to go wherever they like for their rehab. I just think with the motivation Afobe has, he will be back before the end of the season. It's almost like it's written in the stars for him to come back and score a last minute winner in the play off final! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Up The City! said: I didnt know this previously but heard on the radio yesterday that when a player is injured it is ultimately up to him what treatment he does and where he receives his rehab, ultimately many choose to do it with their clubs but the likes of Pogba etc who have endless amounts of cash can go to go wherever they like for their rehab. I just think with the motivation Afobe has, he will be back before the end of the season. It's almost like it's written in the stars for him to come back and score a last minute winner in the play off final! Dean windass will be guest of Honour when the final kick of the game takes place it hits his arse and rolls towards the goal the Keeper is pissing himself laughing because he thinks the ball was out and it just trickles over the goal line. am I a dreamer? did the ball go out of play? or will VAR rule the ball was still in play? even though Dean was still in Hull and the final was at Wembley? or am I pissed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrinceofBristol Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc01 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 24/01/2020 at 21:53, REDOXO said: If we create more chances. As has been pointed out our goals to chances ratio is high. What is QPRs chances created per game ratio compared to ours? The bloke could be the difference, maybe! However the extra competition would be welcome!! This is a goals to shots ratio (from Transfermarkt)- not quite the same as chances to goals ratio but easier to find and gives an indication SHOTS GOALS CONVERSION CITY 85 44 51.8% QPR 169 47 27.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, bcfc01 said: This is a goals to shots ratio (from Transfermarkt)- not quite the same as chances to goals ratio but easier to find and gives an indication SHOTS GOALS CONVERSION CITY 85 44 51.8% QPR 169 47 27.8% Says quite a little bit about us in front of goal until now and not the typical narrative. I think Wells is a great addition and works as hard as anyone. Creating a few more chances could see us really challenge. Also credit to our defence/defending of late Four clean sheets speaks for itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUSSEL85 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 This lad will get an unbelievable reception when he comes on the pitch, hopefully next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC Grim Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 33 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said: This lad will get an unbelievable reception when he comes on the pitch, hopefully next month. Going to give the whole place a lift. Could be the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pride of the west Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, BCFC Grim said: Going to give the whole place a lift. Could be the difference. Damn right. Every player on the pitch will get a massive boost when he's subbed on with 20 to go. I will have a couple of quid ready to bang on us winning in play when he's about to come on. Assuming we ain't 2 down of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewquayRed Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 So light training now, what’s best case for a return ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_BCFC Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, NewquayRed said: So light training now, what’s best case for a return ? I’d be surprised if we saw him before April. Even then it might take him a while I get back to speed - maybe it will be the playoffs?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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