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RedDave

xG Daniel Bentley

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I hate xG but know that a lot of people use it as their oracle so sharing this which indicates that Bentley hasn’t had a great season so far.  Would be interested to hear from those that love xG and also think Bentley has been excellent as to how they see this.

60CB6193-5D65-42E1-BEBD-3E0E443D12A5.png

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He’s saved and face more shots then all bar one keeper on that list,

you agenda against prob the best goalkeeper we’ve had since the 70’s is pathetic 

Edited by Monkeh
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3 hours ago, RedDave said:

I hate xG but know that a lot of people use it as their oracle so sharing this which indicates that Bentley hasn’t had a great season so far.  Would be interested to hear from those that love xG and also think Bentley has been excellent as to how they see this.

60CB6193-5D65-42E1-BEBD-3E0E443D12A5.png

Bentleys save % is pretty good on there not excellent but good.

The thing I dont like about this is a keeper could have 10 shots in top hand corner and shouldn't be able to save any yet says saves 50% which would be class. Yet another keeper has 10 rolled straight down the middle and saves 9 which looks so much better on stats but I know which one I would be happier with.

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1 minute ago, Littlesh*t said:

Bentleys save % is pretty good on there not excellent but good.

The thing I dont like about this is a keeper could have 10 shots in top hand corner and shouldn't be able to save any yet says saves 50% which would be class. Yet another keeper has 10 rolled straight down the middle and saves 9 which looks so much better on stats but I know which one I would be happier with.

That’s the point of the xG column, as I understand it - it takes into account the difficulty of every shot. So a goalkeeper who faces a lot of close-range or too corner shots will be expected to concede a lot of goals. Here the statistics suggest Bentley has not had the most difficult of shots against him compared to the number of goals conceded. 

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3 minutes ago, Distortia said:

That’s the point of the xG column, as I understand it - it takes into account the difficulty of every shot. So a goalkeeper who faces a lot of close-range or too corner shots will be expected to concede a lot of goals. Here the statistics suggest Bentley has not had the most difficult of shots against him compared to the number of goals conceded. 

Ok fair enough I don't really understand exactly how it works. All I know is I am pretty confident when bentley is in goal. I used to be so nervous when the ball went anywhere near fielding 

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9 minutes ago, Littlesh*t said:

Ok fair enough I don't really understand exactly how it works. All I know is I am pretty confident when bentley is in goal. I used to be so nervous when the ball went anywhere near fielding 

Believe what you see with your own eyes would by my suggestion. COYR 

Edited by Simon79
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25 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

He’s saved and face more shots then all bar one keeper on that list,

you agenda against prob the best goalkeeper we’ve had since the 70’s is pathetic 

It’s an agenda against xG you clown 

@Furious Custard what do you disagree with ? xG? 

Edited by RedDave
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Overall I’ve been really impressed with Bentley. He’s passionate and has made some fantastic saves. 
 

His form has dipped in the last few games, like the rest of the team’s, and his distribution has become more jittery - but I think that’s more to do with what’s going on in front of him. 

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Another statistical tool that can be selectively used to create two totally opposite agendas.   The old fashioned way of assessing his performances by watching him play is probably still the most reliable

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I took my 9 year old nephew to the Luton match over Christmas. He doesn't usually go to football so I was hoping it'd be an exciting game for his sake. Luckily, City played well and he was buzzing. At one point in the first half Bentley had the ball in his hands at the end of a Luton attack and quick as a flash threw it out to the left wing. My nephew looked up at me, eyes wide and said 'did you see he just threw the ball half the WHOLE pitch!' After the game he kept coming back to that throw. 

Perhaps I should have tried to explain to him that although he makes loads of saves and has a superhuman throwing arm, Bentley's performance against one key xG metric is actually mediocre... But then really who cares! My nephew thinks Bentley is amazing and so do I.

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He has actually faced more shots (124) than any other keeper, which tells us what we already knew that the

defenders (the whole team) are not very good at holding on to the ball and protecting him. He has not let in

one of the highest numbers of goals conceded in the division because he is a bad keeper, its the dross that

is in front of him.

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11 minutes ago, Judda said:

What worries me is I look at that and see 2nd highest shots against....

I have been saying on other threads, our need for a striker pales into insignificance compared to our need for a defensive overhaul.  We are conceding far too many and that is no reflection on the keeper, but the midfield and defence in front of him.  

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He is, IMO, a good keeper for Championship level. Mostly he makes quick and well judged decisions although, like all keepers, if he gets it wrong, it usually ends up in the net.

My only concern with his quality is that he has a tendency to save some shots by parrying the ball back toward the attacking forwards. Two of Brentford's goals came like this.

The coaching staff should work with him to either catch the shots or parry sideways or over the bar.

As a youngster who wanted to be a goalkeeper, I was told that if you cannot catch a shot or cross, then deflect it round the post or over the bar.

But I'm content with his performances.

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4 minutes ago, Maesknoll Red said:

I have been saying on other threads, our need for a striker pales into insignificance compared to our need for a defensive overhaul.  We are conceding far too many and that is no reflection on the keeper, but the midfield and defence in front of him.  

Agree, although I think our defensive frailties are almost nothing to do with the players we have, as they are all good enough. 

When we played 3-5-2 we were generally solid at the back, barring a couple of abborations when we conceded most of our goals in 4 games, Leeds, WBA, Preston and Luton, our defensive record was generally decent. We weren't allowing chances and although I would expect Bentley shots faced was still high, most were from 20 yards plus, so generally meat and drink other than the very odd top bins strike. 

However this system has impacts on our forward play, and it does mean that you either have to just stick Eliasson in out of position or not play him. 

The other system we seem to favour is 4-4-2 which literally exposes all of our weaknesses, our full backs have limitations, JD is tiny so can be susceptible to a diagonal ball over his head, and Hunt is positionally suspect so again is susceptible to the same ball as JD, as well as just being done 1 on 1 as he's not a good defender. 

With just the 2 cm, most teams can always have space to make these passes that expose our defence meaning we are up against it, also it exposes that Fam and Wieman are not a good partnership, Wieman is often off running the channels instead of being beyond Fam to win flicks and be available for Fam to turn and play him through. The only thing that 4-4-2 gives us is somewhere to play Eliasson. 

We need to either go back to 3-5-2 and accept we will not be interesting to watch, or play a system that as far as I can tell we have built our squad to play as half the signings make no sense if we don't and that's 4-2-3-1. This formation means we don't have 3 CDM competing for 1 place, it means signing Palmer and Smodzic make sense as what's the point of having 2 ACM if you are going to play 2 in midfield. It gets the best out of both Fam and Wieman as Wieman is a wide player and is at his best there and is dangerous coming into the box from wide to get his head on crosses, and as shown against Brentford and for most of his time here Fam is bloody good up top on his own with the attacking mid / number 10 breaking beyond him. 

It gives Eliasson space to work on the left flank while having the security of the 2 sitting midfielders to protect the defence, it also means we can close effectively and nullify the balls that cause us problems defensively. 

I still cannot fathom why we are not playing this system. 

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In simple terms, ignoring stats, I’ve been more than happy with Bentley.

In the main he’s saved the shots I expect him to. He’s saved a number I thought would be goals, so that is a big plus.

Does he fill me with as much confidence as Niki Maenpaa when crosses, corners and set pieces are put into / around the 6 yard box? No.

You won’t get a perfect keeper at this level.

More than happy to have both challenging each other.

Will be interesting to see the selection. dynamic when JoJo is included. 

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He's definitely an improvement on previous keepers. Had a few bad games recently but haven't all of them. 

Not quite sure he's a future England keeper as LJ was quoted earlier in the season. 

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1 minute ago, Spoons said:

He's definitely an improvement on some previous keepers, especially Fielding who I really didn’t rate after one of his kicks knocked my thermos over and spilled hot coffee over lap . Had a few bad games recently but haven't all of them. 

Not quite sure he's a future England keeper as LJ was quoted earlier in the season. 

🤣🤣🤣

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34 minutes ago, Maesknoll Red said:

I have been saying on other threads, our need for a striker pales into insignificance compared to our need for a defensive overhaul.  We are conceding far too many and that is no reflection on the keeper, but the midfield and defence in front of him.  

I would say the defence is let down by the midfield rather than us having a particularly weak defence.

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I've not seen anything of JoJo, although aware obviously that he's been starting for FGR. Is he at a level to compete with Maenpaa and Bentley?

Great news if he is...👍

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2 minutes ago, BS3City said:

I've not seen anything of JoJo, although aware obviously that he's been starting for FGR. Is he at a level to compete with Maenpaa and Bentley?

Great news if he is...👍

Not yet imho, but he’s really come on a lot in the last 18 months. Athletic. Certainly catching up Max. Will be good experience for him. 

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1 hour ago, Judda said:

What worries me is I look at that and see 2nd highest shots against....

We must be so fun to play against 

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17 minutes ago, Spoons said:

He's definitely an improvement on previous keepers. Had a few bad games recently but haven't all of them. 

Not quite sure he's a future England keeper as LJ was quoted earlier in the season. 

He’s been good this season but talk of England is nonsense. I’d have him tenth choice 

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57 minutes ago, Spud55 said:

Agree, although I think our defensive frailties are almost nothing to do with the players we have, as they are all good enough. 

When we played 3-5-2 we were generally solid at the back, barring a couple of abborations when we conceded most of our goals in 4 games, Leeds, WBA, Preston and Luton, our defensive record was generally decent. We weren't allowing chances and although I would expect Bentley shots faced was still high, most were from 20 yards plus, so generally meat and drink other than the very odd top bins strike. 

However this system has impacts on our forward play, and it does mean that you either have to just stick Eliasson in out of position or not play him. 

The other system we seem to favour is 4-4-2 which literally exposes all of our weaknesses, our full backs have limitations, JD is tiny so can be susceptible to a diagonal ball over his head, and Hunt is positionally suspect so again is susceptible to the same ball as JD, as well as just being done 1 on 1 as he's not a good defender. 

With just the 2 cm, most teams can always have space to make these passes that expose our defence meaning we are up against it, also it exposes that Fam and Wieman are not a good partnership, Wieman is often off running the channels instead of being beyond Fam to win flicks and be available for Fam to turn and play him through. The only thing that 4-4-2 gives us is somewhere to play Eliasson. 

We need to either go back to 3-5-2 and accept we will not be interesting to watch, or play a system that as far as I can tell we have built our squad to play as half the signings make no sense if we don't and that's 4-2-3-1. This formation means we don't have 3 CDM competing for 1 place, it means signing Palmer and Smodzic make sense as what's the point of having 2 ACM if you are going to play 2 in midfield. It gets the best out of both Fam and Wieman as Wieman is a wide player and is at his best there and is dangerous coming into the box from wide to get his head on crosses, and as shown against Brentford and for most of his time here Fam is bloody good up top on his own with the attacking mid / number 10 breaking beyond him. 

It gives Eliasson space to work on the left flank while having the security of the 2 sitting midfielders to protect the defence, it also means we can close effectively and nullify the balls that cause us problems defensively. 

I still cannot fathom why we are not playing this system. 

For the simple reason that our full backs have weaknesses, and we don’t have 2 solid holding central midfielders at present. 
Agree though, it’s the formation that suits our players going forward, but until we are more solid defensively, leaves us vulnerable.

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Maybe Jo Jo has been recalled so he can sit on the bench as the home grown player and allow Semenyo to be loaned out, especially as we have been led to believe we are after 2 strikers, Semenyo becomes surplus.

i would think that Maenpaa would remain the no 2 keeper in reality due to his experience and previous performances so would step in to start games in place of Bentley if required. 
 

I think also it has been decided that as Max is getting games at a higher level than Jo Jo its best to keep him where he is.

Edited by Angmering Red

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1 hour ago, Maesknoll Red said:

I have been saying on other threads, our need for a striker pales into insignificance compared to our need for a defensive overhaul.  We are conceding far too many and that is no reflection on the keeper, but the midfield and defence in front of him.  

A big part of the reason we are conceding so many shots is we aren’t putting enough attacking pressure on the opposition and dominating play. 
 

I feel our inability to keep the ball at the other end of the pitch is more of a problem than the defensive players, who are inevitably going to be overwhelmed when the opposition get so much of the ball. 

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Lies. damn lies. and statistics. The more I see of xG the more I see the Emperors New Clothes. I know some of you think it's a useful tool, but I couldn't be bothered to wade through the mountain of bullshit to find a nugget of information that makes the slightest bit of difference. I'll carry on using the evidence of my own eyes thanks.

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59 minutes ago, Angmering Red said:

Maybe Jo Jo has been recalled so he can sit on the bench as the home grown player and allow Semenyo to be loaned out, especially as we have been led to believe we are after 2 strikers, Semenyo becomes surplus.

i would think that Maenpaa would remain the no 2 keeper in reality due to his experience and previous performances so would step in to start games in place of Bentley if required. 
 

I think also it has been decided that as Max is getting games at a higher level than Jo Jo its best to keep him where he is.

That's almost certainly the reasoning behind it.

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Been banging on about our chances conceded for months.

It's a big problem and the worry is that keepers cannot, generally do not, keep up the same save %...yes we were 'allowing' chances that were harder to score from earlier in the season but it's not a good trend!

As for Bentley, think he's done fine. More than fine tbh.

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7 hours ago, RedDave said:

I hate xG but know that a lot of people use it as their oracle so sharing this which indicates that Bentley hasn’t had a great season so far.  Would be interested to hear from those that love xG and also think Bentley has been excellent as to how they see this.

60CB6193-5D65-42E1-BEBD-3E0E443D12A5.png

Hi @RedDave

Could you explain what each of the headings are and what the numbers in the columns actually mean?

I've not seen this xg stuff before

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Haven’t studied xG in any massive depth, but from what I know this feels like an attempt to reverse engineer it and apply it to individual goalkeepers when that’s not really it’s intention.

As I understand it, xG is calculated mainly on the location & type of shot. So if someone scores a 40 yarder, xG will suggest they “overperformed” - which is probably true. But apply that to a goalkeeper and it will look like they’ve let in a shot that they should have saved 98% of the time.

Off the top of my head, Blackburn’s first goal against us, and Brentford (A), are both goals that wouldn’t lead to many of us saying “Bentley should’ve saved that”. But xG is probably going to suggest he should’ve.

As with all stats, it’s a part of the whole, but pretty useless on its own.

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3 hours ago, Spoons said:

I'm 35 years old mate bit to young for a Thermos flask! 

Just as well I didn’t write “spilled over my tartan blanket” then!!! 🤣🤣

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The main flaw with xG is that it takes no account of the individual skill of the player. So a shot from 8 yards might have an xG of 0.80 (i.e. an 80% chance of a goal) regardless of whether its struck by Sergio Aguero or Baz Savage.

Proponents of the system have tried to argue that the best players don't actually have a significantly higher chance of scoring from a given position but obviously if that was true, then why do teams spend millions of pounds on strikers?  It's complete nonsense.

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4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

In simple terms, ignoring stats, I’ve been more than happy with Bentley.

In the main he’s saved the shots I expect him to. He’s saved a number I thought would be goals, so that is a big plus.

Does he fill me with as much confidence as Niki Maenpaa when crosses, corners and set pieces are put into / around the 6 yard box? No.

You won’t get a perfect keeper at this level.

More than happy to have both challenging each other.

Will be interesting to see the selection. dynamic when JoJo is included. 

We know what the selection dynamic will be, Bentley will start with Jojo on the bench. If there is an injury to Bentley then Maenpaa will be in.

There is only one reason Jojo is included in the sqaud unfortunately.

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8 minutes ago, O'Garlandinho said:

We know what the selection dynamic will be, Bentley will start with Jojo on the bench. If there is an injury to Bentley then Maenpaa will be in.

There is only one reason Jojo is included in the sqaud unfortunately.

I suspect you are 100% right.

If Bents gets injured during a game, JoJo will obviously get some minutes, but essentially he’s there to allow 6 outfield subs without needing one of those 6 to be club developed.

He will of course gain experience of being part of the match day squad and relevant build-up. 

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Ignoring XG, as I don't find it any use whatsoever. I think Bentley has made more mistakes than Maenpaa did last season. Was always going to be tough to follow Maenpaa.

I'm still not really sure if he is any better than Maenpaa. For a goalie Bentley is young so he may improve. I probably feel more relaxed with Maenpaa in goal with crosses into our box.

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4 hours ago, Angmering Red said:

Maybe Jo Jo has been recalled so he can sit on the bench as the home grown player and allow Semenyo to be loaned out, especially as we have been led to believe we are after 2 strikers, Semenyo becomes surplus.

i would think that Maenpaa would remain the no 2 keeper in reality due to his experience and previous performances so would step in to start games in place of Bentley if required. 
 

I think also it has been decided that as Max is getting games at a higher level than Jo Jo its best to keep him where he is.

That's exactly why he's been recalled. It was quoted in one of the recent articles about JoJo coming back.

As for the op about XG...it's no coincidence. You've only got to watch for ourselves. Other stats used in the Championship show Bentley has pretty much faced the most shots, and that we allow shooting chances against us.

We also don't create many chances. Rock bottom of those stats and has been for a long time.

It was also quoted in a recent article about Nketiah coming here, that it went against us because we don't create chances and would go against his development.

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37 minutes ago, HiddenGem7 said:

The main flaw with xG is that it takes no account of the individual skill of the player. So a shot from 8 yards might have an xG of 0.80 (i.e. an 80% chance of a goal) regardless of whether its struck by Sergio Aguero or Baz Savage.

Proponents of the system have tried to argue that the best players don't actually have a significantly higher chance of scoring from a given position but obviously if that was true, then why do teams spend millions of pounds on strikers?  It's complete nonsense.

Although I think you are correct that no xG system yet accounts for individual skill the most sophisticated xG stats out there do actually adjust the number to take account of the average finishing levels within a division. A 0.8 in the Premier League would therefore be slightly downgraded in the Championship.

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40 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Although I think you are correct that no xG system yet accounts for individual skill the most sophisticated xG stats out there do actually adjust the number to take account of the average finishing levels within a division. A 0.8 in the Premier League would therefore be slightly downgraded in the Championship.

i've seen that too, which is equally stupid as it would imply there would be less and less goals per games as you go down the leagues. There isn't.

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1 minute ago, HiddenGem7 said:

i've seen that too, which is equally stupid as it would imply there would be less and less goals per games as you go down the leagues. There isn't.

Fewer and fewer goals. This doesn't happen because the standard of defending/goalkeeping drops at a similar rate to the standard of shooting and finishing. Hence a premier league level striker would be expected to score more from the same quality of chances in a lower division than the average striker in that division. If you still applied premier league xG figures to his chances then the xG would bear this out.

I don't think anyone out there is saying that xG is the perfect statistic. I certainly wouldn't say that. For many analytics divisions it has been surpassed by "passes per defensive action", Packing, and a few other metrics. However, if as a casual fan you are attempting to predict the future based on long term past trends it does serve a purpose and has proven reasonably accurate in doing so. It is certainly more useful than looking at the raw number of shots or goals scored/conceded. It is also the most useful metric I know of if you are trying to get an idea of how "lucky" a team has been.

Anyway, on Bentley. I've looked in some detail at his stats earlier in the season and concluded that he was being slightly over-hyped by our fans. There's little doubt that he's one of the best goalies this club has had in recent years, however that is more to do with the relatively low quality of the other keepers than with Bentley being an outstanding goalie at our level. He's also been very, very busy and so his actions have greater influence on the games. Essentially he looks better than he is because he has more chances to look better than he is. He's good. He's a very solid keeper at our level. But is he the best at our level? No. 

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1 hour ago, Robin1988 said:

Could you name one?

If I could specifically remember the username of people that loved xG I’d be highly embarrassed. However there was a debate on here recently where a lot people backed it and loved it. 

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Thought about this a bit more, and - assuming they’re just reversing the xG for all the shots they’ve faced - surely it’s completely irrelevant for keepers?

xG is judging the likelihood of scoring before the player takes a shot - i.e. how likely it is that they will produce a shot capable of beating the keeper.

If we’re judging how likely it is for the keeper to concede, though, the outcome of the xG calculation is already known, and thus xS (expected save) would need to be calculated separately.

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