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Banjo Red

Nahki Wells - SIGNING CONFIRMED

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3 minutes ago, Rocky said:

 

This guy seems legit Daily Telegraph Football Reporter with over 9k followers so its not a fake account

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2 minutes ago, westonred said:

 

This guy seems legit Daily Telegraph Football Reporter with over 9k followers so its not a fake account

One of the few legit you’ll get I reckon. 

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1 hour ago, Coppello said:

An interesting article was posted on The Athletic this month for anyone thinking that January signings are the holy grail - see here

 

Why your club shouldn’t spend any money in the January transfer window

January-transfer-window-Fernando-Torres-e1578584386805-1024x682.jpg
By Jack Pitt-Brooke Jan 9, 2020 comment-icon@2x.png 97 unsave-icon@2x.png

In boardrooms around the country this month, the same question will be asked: “Can he keep us up?” Nothing else matters to half the teams in the Premier League, given the money at stake in the top flight. They are desperate for ‘proven winners’, players who have won trophies, or who have never been relegated before. They are desperate for a saviour and will take a punt on the flimsiest evidence, wanting to believe that they are investing in a solution to their problems, trying to convince themselves that they are doing the right thing. Anyone, for any price, to get them out of the mire.

And it almost never works.

That is proven by the research of 21st Club, the football data analysis firm. They have studied the value of spending big in January and have found that the costs of shelling out money to save your season outweigh the benefits.

“We have looked at net spend in January relative to the rest of the league and how that correlates to points-per-game change over the rest of the season,” explains Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence for 21st Club. “Essentially, there is no correlation, or a very slight positive correlation. If you look at the average for teams historically, a team that spends £30 million historically generates just 0.1 points-per-game on average more after January. So over 19 games, you’re looking at one or two points.”

A classic example of misguided January spending came with Queens Park Rangers in 2013. On New Year’s Day, they were adrift at the bottom of the Premier League with just 10 points from their first 20 games. But Harry Redknapp and Tony Fernandes decided that they could spend their way out of trouble. They bought Christopher Samba from Anzhi Makhachkala for £12.5m on a four-and-a-half year deal worth more than £20m. They bought Loic Remy from Marseille for £8m, on a deal of similar length but slightly less wages. The investment in those two alone was more than £60m but they also signed Tal Ben Haim, Jermaine Jenas and South Korean left-back Yun Suk-young.

QPR did win three games in the second half of the season but they still finished comfortably bottom and had stored up financial problems that they have spent years trying to solve. At best, they had only reduced their likelihood of relegation from almost-certain to merely very likely. Now, seven years on, they have to be one of the most frugal teams in the Championship.

In January 2018, trying to save themselves, Stoke City spent £14m on Badou Ndiaye and Swansea City £18m on Andre Ayew, buying him back from West Ham United, but both teams still went down. Ayew did not score a single goal in his 12 games that half-season. Last January, Fulham brought in Ryan Babel, Lazar Markovic and Havard Nordtveit, three expensive ex-Premier League players to stave off relegation. It did not make any difference.

When teams are trying to spend their way to safety, they generally look up front. It is easier to buy in goals than buy in clean sheets, and when the margins are that fine, it makes sense to gamble on one man who can score just enough to make a difference. And there are enough historical precedents to suggest that it sometimes works. No one can forget Fredi Bobic keeping Bolton Wanderers up in 2002, Emile Mpenza at Manchester City in 2007 (he in fact arrived as a free agent in February), Ilan at West Ham United in 2010, or Dame N’Doye at Hull City in 2015.

But these stories stand out because they worked out, and the majority of strikers in January do not.

“The biggest spike in demand is for strikers in January window,” says Chaudhuri. “But about half of all the strikers that are bought in January don’t even score a goal between then and the end of the season. So this idea that you can just get a guy in who will score you 10 goals is a complete fallacy.”

Strikers make up 20 per cent of January signings in the big five leagues, according to 21st Club. But only 14 per cent of those strikers scored five or more league goals during their first half-season, and 55 per cent of them fail to score a single league goal.

The only January arrival in recent years who has made it to 10 goals in the second half of the season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But he was an established 28-year-old star, and Arsenal paid Borussia Dortmund £56m for him in January 2018.

“Aubameyang is the only one who’s done it, which goes to show,” Chaudhuri says, “you need to go for the complete no-brainer, otherwise you’re not going to get a result.” Even strikers who turned out to be successful at their clubs — Luis Suarez at Liverpool, Edin Dzeko at Manchester City, each arriving in January 2011 — managed four and six goals respectively in their first half-season with their new club.

“We try and assign a point per season or points per half-season value to players,” Chaudhuri says. “The reality is that the impact is a lot smaller than what you anticipate. Take a team who’s on 15 points in January. So if you double their total, they’re on 30 and they’re going to try to get another 10 points to 40. They might think they can get that through a striker but in reality, that doesn’t stack up. Look at the correlation between goals and points in the Premier League. A goal is typically worth around half a point per season, maybe slightly more, so even someone who is scoring you 10 goals over half a season could only really be expected to add five points.”

But remember that a replacement level player might be expected to score, say, five goals over that half-season too. So a player who could score 10 goals in a half-season is only adding five goals, which in turn would only be worth 2.5 points. “And a lot of clubs, if you told them they were spending £35m on two points, might rethink that decision,” Chaudhuri says. “But a lot of clubs overestimate the impact that players can have and they end up having too high expectations of the signings they bring in.”

There was a time not very long ago when even the richest sides would spend big in January, desperately trying to sign players to transform their seasons. In 2011, Chelsea signed Fernando Torres for £50m from Liverpool, who spent the money on Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez. In 2014, Manchester United bought Juan Mata from Chelsea for £37m. The following year, Manchester City bought Wilfried Bony from Swansea for £25m. With the exception of Suarez, most of those signings were failures and if anything has changed in recent years, it has been big clubs buying less often but smarter during the January window.

The biggest signing in January history in England — Liverpool buying Virgil van Dijk for £75m two years ago — was one of the best but that is because it was so different from most normal winter buys. It was not a case of taking a punt on an available player, unsettled at another club, in the hope that he would improve the team. Instead, it boiled down to Liverpool, having long identified Van Dijk as the best in the world in his position, being happy to pay the top rate for a top player. There was no element of risk about it. Similarly, Manchester City paying £57m for Aymeric Laporte that same window was the conclusion of an 18-month pursuit of a player Pep Guardiola knew was perfect for his style, rather than a risk.

But Van Dijk is the exception, not the rule, and unless you can buy guaranteed success this month, then anything else is a big risk. Speak to agents about the value of the January market and they warn that there is little point spending too much this month. The players you can buy in January, almost by definition, have question marks over them. If they were on top of their games, they would not be sold mid-season. “The best players don’t move mid-season,” one leading agent says. “This window seems increasingly like a waste of time.”

A very interesting read, thanks for posting it. I'd want to ask the author and stats team behind it whether they looked at loans into the lower leagues? That's a different market to the top level transfers they discuss here, and it might show a slightly better (or of course worse) return.

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45 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

You’re wasted with this rabble on the forum. Your talent deserves a better audience 

There is no better audience. Although I agree The Major should go far......

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2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

A very interesting read, thanks for posting it. I'd want to ask the author and stats team behind it whether they looked at loans into the lower leagues? That's a different market to the top level transfers they discuss here, and it might show a slightly better (or of course worse) return.

I agree. I could see the statistics being more favourable in the Championship given how hard it is to score at the elite level. 

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On 27/01/2020 at 19:09, The hand of RO'D said:

As stated in various articles, we are both far apart in our valuations. 

Burnley are being firm on their asking price and we are a few million off at this point. Burnley always considered recalling him from his loan for their second half of the season so that has no bearing on if he will be sold. 

As far as I'm aware there has been no talks of including JB in the deal, however Dyche is a big admirer. 

 

17 minutes ago, Rocky said:

 

😊

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1 minute ago, Lez said:

In the summer he was mentioned and the general consensus was no thanks....

Lots of people turned their nose up at Afobe too. Think Afobe proved to them how valuable an experienced and established Championship forward can be. 

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1 minute ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Lots of people turned their nose up at Afobe too. Think Afobe proved to them how valuable an experienced and established Championship forward can be. 

Yes i agree I would prefer a fully fit afobe to wells but both good proven players who would boost us.

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1 minute ago, Shtanley said:

How are we gonna fit him into our wage structure?

This is my concern with the deal. It goes against the way we've operated for the past few years of buying young players with a sell-on value. I'm concerned that, if it does not work out, we could spend the next four windows paying for it. Yes, I would like a striker but I'm a little apprehensive. 

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3 minutes ago, Coppello said:

I agree. I could see the statistics being more favourable in the Championship given how hard it is to score at the elite level. 

Funny thing is, it matches well with something I looked at myself some years back. I compared the tables on Christmas Day to the final day. Did it across all seasons of the Prem iirc. Basically found that on average teams move a maximum of 2-3 places up or down over the second half of the season. There's the odd exception and there was more variance the nearer you were to mid-table but the point stands - don't expect to move more than 3 places from where you are at Christmas. This stuff on $ spent not really helping is complimentary to that at least - essentially it is incredibly hard to craft or buy drastic, season-defining improvement in January.

Back to Wells - He'll improve our squad, no doubt about that. Is he a huge improvement? No not really. Will he score 10 goals before the end of the season? Almost certainly not. I'd be happy to see him here, and would be very happy if he could come in and bag 5 goals for us - is he the man to get us into the top 2 - nope, but he might, just might be that fine marginal improvement to take us from 7th or 8th to 6th.

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6 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I thought they often did that bit before fee being agreed? Or are you saying you know that is the case.

I don't think personal terms are agreed, no. 

We're trying to get it done by Saturday. Proper naughty. Imagine the QPR meltdown 🎣

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2 minutes ago, Lez said:

Yes i agree I would prefer a fully fit afobe to wells but both good proven players who would boost us.

Both good at this level and would probably compliment eachother quite nicely if ever paired up top..

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1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I don't think personal terms are agreed, no. 

We're trying to get it done by Saturday. Proper naughty. Imagine the QPR meltdown 🎣

Surely zero chance this will be done for Saturday.

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3 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I don't think personal terms are agreed, no. 

We're trying to get it done by Saturday. Proper naughty. Imagine the QPR meltdown 🎣

City feeling confident I assume then?

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5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Funny thing is, it matches well with something I looked at myself some years back. I compared the tables on Christmas Day to the final day. Did it across all seasons of the Prem iirc. Basically found that on average teams move a maximum of 2-3 places up or down over the second half of the season. There's the odd exception and there was more variance the nearer you were to mid-table but the point stands - don't expect to move more than 3 places from where you are at Christmas. This stuff on $ spent not really helping is complimentary to that at least - essentially it is incredibly hard to craft or buy drastic, season-defining improvement in January.

Back to Wells - He'll improve our squad, no doubt about that. Is he a huge improvement? No not really. Will he score 10 goals before the end of the season? Almost certainly not. I'd be happy to see him here, and would be very happy if he could come in and bag 5 goals for us - is he the man to get us into the top 2 - nope, but he might, just might be that fine marginal improvement to take us from 7th or 8th to 6th.

Unless you're Bristol City 

Bad Day Falling GIF by Buyout Footage

Edited by Coppello

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2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Funny thing is, it matches well with something I looked at myself some years back. I compared the tables on Christmas Day to the final day. Did it across all seasons of the Prem iirc. Basically found that on average teams move a maximum of 2-3 places up or down over the second half of the season. There's the odd exception and there was more variance the nearer you were to mid-table but the point stands - don't expect to move more than 3 places from where you are at Christmas. This stuff on $ spent not really helping is complimentary to that at least - essentially it is incredibly hard to craft or buy drastic, season-defining improvement in January.

Back to Wells - He'll improve our squad, no doubt about that. Is he a huge improvement? No not really. Will he score 10 goals before the end of the season? Almost certainly not. I'd be happy to see him here, and would be very happy if he could come in and bag 5 goals for us - is he the man to get us into the top 2 - nope, but he might, just might be that fine marginal improvement to take us from 7th or 8th to 6th.

Good points.

I'm not sure where we fit him in to be honest.

I like how Fam is doing. Weimann has been a bit poor for a while. But where we now play Weimann is not Well's position.

Is not that Fam is better than Wells. It's that they're completely different so I can't see us just playing Wells instead of Fam and us doing better.

We'd probably have to change a few things to make it work. Yet we've just won 3 in a row. Not conceded in those games and our performances are gradually improving. 

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If we end up signing Wells I wonder what that will mean for Afobe, as I believe his loan move has an agreed fee at the end of the loan if we wish to take it up. Do you think we will let Afobe go or sign both if Afobe manages to prove his fitness at the end of the season?

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5 minutes ago, Coppello said:

This is my concern with the deal. It goes against the way we've operated for the past few years of buying young players with a sell-on value. I'm concerned that, if it does not work out, we could spend the next four windows paying for it. Yes, I would like a striker but I'm a little apprehensive. 

The fee is favourable to us. Burnley were taking the piss asking for £5m for a player they paid £5m for two years ago and hasn't scored a single goal for them

Fee is a lot less than that!

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5 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I don't think personal terms are agreed, no. 

We're trying to get it done by Saturday. Proper naughty. Imagine the QPR meltdown 🎣

Sorry but why do you think the personal terms are not agreed? There's no reason why they wouldn't be is there?

Just interested to know if you know something we don't.

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On 28/01/2020 at 16:04, Galway Red said:

We'll end up with someone from a foreign league who nobody has heard of who will prove to be utter rubbish or we'll end up with someone who will only get the odd few minutes from the subs bench, it's what we do

You are obviously describing Afobe!

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5 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

The fee is favourable to us. Burnley were taking the piss asking for £5m for a player they paid £5m for two years ago and hasn't scored a single goal for them

Fee is a lot less than that!

Does this include Brownhill giing the other way?

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10 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I don't think personal terms are agreed, no. 

We're trying to get it done by Saturday. Proper naughty. Imagine the QPR meltdown 🎣

 

8 minutes ago, Lez said:

Surely zero chance this will be done for Saturday.

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

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7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Good points.

I'm not sure where we fit him in to be honest.

I like how Fam is doing. Weimann has been a bit poor for a while. But where we now play Weimann is not Well's position.

Is not that Fam is better than Wells. It's that they're completely different so I can't see us just playing Wells instead of Fam and us doing better.

We'd probably have to change a few things to make it work. Yet we've just won 3 in a row. Not conceded in those games and our performances are gradually improving. 

Fam is a weird one because think he needs to score one of his chances last night. On the other hand he occupied a defender on the long ball that led to our goal. 
 

Then with Weimann he isn’t the goal scorer that Wells is but he will offer much more work defensively. Might be a case of Wells plays home games? 

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16 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

And that is where we will fall down

I'm pretty sure we would have asked about wages before agreeing a fee with Burnley. 

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4 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

 

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

Might be that he has to be registered by 17:00 to be eligible to play on Saturday? 

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17 minutes ago, Coppello said:

This is my concern with the deal. It goes against the way we've operated for the past few years of buying young players with a sell-on value. I'm concerned that, if it does not work out, we could spend the next four windows paying for it. Yes, I would like a striker but I'm a little apprehensive. 

Maybe after two seasons of failed promotion bids they have tweaked the ethos a bit and decided that the odd player purchased with proven credentials is worth it?

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3 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

Yeah, you're missing the fact I have a couple of toddlers so have no concept of time at the moment! 

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5 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

 

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

Depends on when players need to be registered with regards to the transfer window closing.

Do players need to be registered before midday Friday to be eligible to play Saturday or can they sign at 10:55pm Friday & still be eligible?

What happens if the Wells deal is confirmed between those two times? He can’t play against QPR but can play for us for the rest of the season?

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30 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I thought they often did that bit before fee being agreed? Or are you saying you know that is the case.

Er, that’s against the rules. 

Were not allowed to speak to the player without permission being granted... which effectively means we must agree the fee. 

Edited by Riaz
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4 minutes ago, Galway Red said:

Might be that he has to be registered by 17:00 to be eligible to play on Saturday? 

Yea I did think that after I posted but imagine at this point getting the deal done sooner rather is best regardless of QPR. 

 

2 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Yeah, you're missing the fact I have a couple of toddlers so have no concept of time at the moment! 

Haha I’ve been there just thought I was missing something

 

2 minutes ago, Tipps69 said:

Depends on when players need to be registered with regards to the transfer window closing.

Do players need to be registered before midday Friday to be eligible to play Saturday or can they sign at 10:55pm Friday & still be eligible?

What happens if the Wells deal is confirmed between those two times? He can’t play against QPR but can play for us for the rest of the season?

Think it is usually the noon one. Don’t think the deadline would change it. Just think at this point getting him is more important than getting him for Saturday where he probably would not feature anyway or would be minimal

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15 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Just interested to know if you know something we don't.

To be blunt, yes 😂

However, also ask yourself why Mike McGrath hasn't gone as far as saying it's basically a done deal and has instead only said a fee has been agreed...

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5 minutes ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

Maybe after two seasons of failed promotion bids they have tweaked the ethos a bit and decided that the odd player purchased with proven credentials is worth it?

I don't disagree with that point. I was concerned about the rumoured £5m fee which, according to KITR, is not accurate and his undoubted high salary. Like you said, the odd player could be worth it, but I hope we don't get into the position of signing a lot of old players on expensive deals. Like I said, I'm not against signing him, I just don't want to spend the next two years paying for it. 

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19 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

 

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

:laugh: true I didnt think of that.

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5 minutes ago, Coppello said:

I don't disagree with that point. I was concerned about the rumoured £5m fee which, according to KITR, is not accurate and his undoubted high salary. Like you said, the odd player could be worth it, but I hope we don't get into the position of signing a lot of old players on expensive deals. Like I said, I'm not against signing him, I just don't want to spend the next two years paying for it. 

One swallow does not a summer make.....or something like that!  Agreed, we don’t want to start buying journeymen, but I’m happy with a good balance

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