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we MUST Win 7 from 12


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59 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place.

Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do. 

 

What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible.

The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points!

Sorry buddy, but you probably said this last year and you were wrong.

There's nothing wrong with forecasting based on precedent and evidence.

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1 hour ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place. Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do.

What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible.

The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points!

We have to play the four teams directly below us, at least three of which would probably overtake us the moment they beat us. So, that's four defeats we'd need to avoid for a start.  Add another two 'avoid defeats'  for Forest and Preston (if we want to maintain pace with them) and the for practical purposes doing better than all those teams on average in our other games (i.e. not against them) until the end of the season (which means wins), it's pretty clear to me that we need to win most of our remaining games to have a realistic chance of a top six finish.

Given how things are going I'd be extremely happy if it came down to a must win against Preston.

 

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People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently.

Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6.

We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row!

We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others.

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57 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Classic OTIB. Being told you’re “wrong” for something you “probably” said a year ago.

Well I only say that because I recall we've discussed something similar before. I generally agree with what you post but I'm sure we've had this debate before?

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1 hour ago, JonDolman said:

People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently.

Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6.

We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row!

We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others.

Sorry Jon but the way we play now makes very depressing watching. It's not just the top 2 who have outplayed us.

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14 minutes ago, mozo said:

Well I only say that because I recall we've discussed something similar before. I generally agree with what you post but I'm sure we've had this debate before?

Oh OK, fair enough - yes entirely possibly we’ve been around this loop before, and before that!

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2 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Oh OK, fair enough - yes entirely possibly we’ve been around this loop before, and before that!

Yeah but if it turns out you're right and I'm wrong it doesn't count 😇

Look, you can't predict the weather, but you can forecast it based on trends and conditions. Equally, the bookies can't be certain that West Brom would beat City away, but they will set the odds to cover their backs for the most likely outcome.

I believe that setting a target of 75 points is not perfect, but it is sensible given what we know.

And proposing that we should apply extra importance to beating Huddersfield, than say West Brom makes perfect sense given we know 1.That we are more likely to collect points away than at home, and 2. We are more likely to beat teams in the bottom half than the top half. This is all based on evidence. 

We are de facto 4 points off play offs, and whilst some will say "anything can happen", I'd argue you're being daft if you don't appreciate that every game that we don't win makes the uphill road a little steeper. 

I admire your ability to be philosophical, but I would expect you to understand why others would apply some context to our situation.

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18 minutes ago, marmite said:

Sorry Jon but the way we play now makes very depressing watching. It's not just the top 2 who have outplayed us.

My point is though that you and others would have said the exact same sort of thing before Wigan game. But we then won 4 in a row.

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1 hour ago, JonDolman said:

People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently.

Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6.

We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row!

We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others.

I agree in a sense, but the sand is passing through the hourglass and the timeframes are becoming urgent. 

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7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

My point is though that you and others would have said the exact same sort of thing before Wigan game. But we then won 4 in a row.

I agree thats perfectly feasible but our current form and the teams we have to play makes it unlikely in my view. I do hope you are right though and on this occasion I will be happy to eat humble pie.

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14 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

I find it difficult to believe that a team which concedes more than it scores over two thirds of a season is good enough to make the play offs. 

Does it matter? The fact is we are just outside and 3 points below Brentford and Forest. Therefore why should we just forget about it

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4 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Does it matter? The fact is we are just outside and 3 points below Brentford and Forest. Therefore why should we just forget about it

We arent good enough. We have a manager that still doesnt know his best team or formation.

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4 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place. Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do.

What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible.

The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points!

Not that bemusing @ChippenhamRed, our defending is appalling. 

Note, not our defence.

The players are disorganised and lack leadership.

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30 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

I find it difficult to believe that a team which concedes more than it scores over two thirds of a season is good enough to make the play offs. 

Huddersfield were promoted with a negative goal difference and went on to survive their first season in the top flight.

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6 hours ago, FramptonRed said:

I admire your optimism but Preston dont have a soft underbelly like us and i can see them getting something from Wba and especially Fulham.Hope i’m proved wrong though.

Yes, we are very soft when we meet better teams. Preston probably make it more difficault for their opponents. Still 36 points to play for, so, he he, Im optimistic.

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I was out and about with my kids yesterday, one of which is 10 and loves his football and of course is a city fan. We were without signal until about half 4, at which point i asked for his prediction of the city v wba score. He correctly guessed we would be losing 3-0. Ive got 30 odd years of seeing bristol city failing and i knew as well exactly what would happen in that game, hes got 5 years or so, and he knew it too. 
 

If there is a way for bristol city to **** things up spectacularly, they will do it. And for that reason,  i cant believe we will make the top 6,,,, and if we did, how can anyone realistically think we would actually win them when we barely have a shot against the better teams in the championship!

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6 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

That’s rather besides the point; it’s still odd that a goal difference 28 superior has only yielded Brentford 3 more points.

let me be more specific 🙂

We win games by one goal.

And often lose by 3.

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