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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport


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50 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

While I share your concern about the economic damage, I can’t get behind your simple maths. The problem is they’re too simple, and don’t account for a huge number of variables, and the broadly unpredictable nature of the spread of the virus itself.

A few things off the top of my head:

- The virus in China was predominantly centred around Wuhan, rather than evenly distributed across the country.

- China is geographically huge, and far less densely populated than the UK (365 people per square mile in China, 671 in the UK).

- China took drastic measures, shutting down an entire city. We’ve responded with a few posters on washing your hands.

- Travel patterns in a country are linked to the culture, demographic and wealth of its people; the way people move around China may not be directly comparable to Western Europe.

- The nature of reporting itself has a large margin of error. It’s possible many more died who weren’t reported or whose deaths weren’t attributed to Coronavirus.

I’m sure there are other variables, but these are just a few examples that spring to mind.

Appreciate your considered response.

However the comments you make about China are exactly why I suggested an infection rate of 1 % for the UK as opposed to 0.006 % identified in China. Cant 'see how we are going to get 4 times the deaths which have occurred in China which is the predicted number using UK  infection of 1% with  1.87 % dying from the virus.

People forecasting 80 % of the  UK population having the Coronavirus are simply scaremongering and causing unnecessary concern and panic. Italy today has 0.02 % of it's population with the virus for example.

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8 minutes ago, Drew Peacock said:

I don't think that is right. I have seen that researchers believe you are not contagious until the symptoms show.

Im not sure thats right

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2 minutes ago, Super said:

Im not sure thats right

Prof Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said the study confirmed that for the vast majority of cases, the incubation and therefore quarantine period for new coronavirus, will be up to 14 days.

And, encouragingly: "There is little if any evidence that people can routinely transmit virus during the asymptomatic period."

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2 hours ago, Harry said:

Do we have any information as to the people in the U.K. who’ve sadly died. 6 now I understand. 
Information such as, how do we think they contracted it? Had they all been to China or Italy or other infected area recently, or had any of their friends or relatives been in such places. 
It would be beneficial, I believe, for the public to know HOW these people contracted it. 
We seem to be lacking any true, useful information. 

Agree. When I was in Singapore recently the media would produce a family tree type illustration, they hadn't had any deaths so it was of everyone who had been tested positive.

You could check out every cluster, most cases came in clusters, like churches, a business convention and a couple of large workplaces. Surprisingly very few if any got it by just going about every day life, like commuting or shopping.

The whole of Singapore was a model of how things should be done a number of experts have said. A bit wierd to get back to Heathrow and not see or speak to a single airport official between the plane and my car. Just an automated passport machine.

 

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1 hour ago, redapple said:

What’s upset me most about this whole Corona Virus episode  has been the dismissal of older people and those more vulnerable by lots of younger people. Don’t they have older relatives ? Don’t they know anybody who has diabetes, heart disease, etc ? 
For me it’s really confirmed what I had feared about society , that it’s become selfish in a way that it’s never been before. 

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

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39 minutes ago, phantom said:

One thing that seems to be confusing people on this thread is that Coronavirus is NOT what is killing these people. 

People ARE getting Coronavirus but it is COVID-19 that is killing people there IS a difference 

Coronavirus has been around for decades with many people being infected like now 

I thought Coronavirus is a group of viruses. Generally that causes respiratory tract infections.

COVID-19 is a coronavirus. As is SARS, swine flu and the common cold.

Either way Its actually annoyed me the way the media has kept calling it coronavirus as when the next one comes along lots of people are going to think it's the same one.

The stats on this particular one are worrying.

4 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

It's very sad. And sadly you are right.

Many will only begin to care when it effects them directly, either by a friend/family member becoming I'll or like you say financially.

The impact it could have on the nhs should also not be understated. Thousands more people showing up in need of urgent care to an already underfunded and overstretched service.

 

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5 minutes ago, cider-manc said:

I thought Coronavirus is a group of viruses. Generally that causes respiratory tract infections.

COVID-19 is a coronavirus. As is SARS, swine flu and the common cold.

Either way Its actually annoyed me the way the media has kept calling it coronavirus as when the next one comes along lots of people are going to think it's the same one.

The stats on this particular one are worrying.

It's very sad. And sadly you are right.

Many will only begin to care when it effects them directly, either by a friend/family member becoming I'll or like you say financially.

The impact it could have on the nhs should also not be understated. Thousands more people showing up in need of urgent care to an already underfunded and overstretched service.

 

Yes that's something I'd fully agree with. 

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5 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Perhaps you could expand on your comments. These are all facts.

I won't go into massive detail, but you've ignored several things.

Population demographic, ability to and quality of testing, population density, reliability of data.

There's so many variables.

Listen to experts, not media or your own assumptions.

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16 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

I won't go into massive detail, but you've ignored several things.

Population demographic, ability to and quality of testing, population density, reliability of data.

There's so many variables.

Listen to experts, not media or your own assumptions.

My concern here is our experts appear to know more than the experts in every other first world country. New York about to go into lock down. 

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25 minutes ago, reddoc said:

My concern here is our experts appear to know more than the experts in every other first world country. New York about to go into lock down. 

The US are handling it awfully and will be one of the worst affected countries in my opinion. I'm certainly no fan of Boris Johnson or the Tories but I think we're actually doing the right thing so far.

They're waiting to implement a full lockdown as I understand it at it's a massive step and you can't do it for long - if you do it too early you lose the positive effect of it as after a while people get restless, break it, and it spreads worse than before. It has to be carefully timed to hit around the start of the peak as far as I'm aware, if you're going to do it.

The point isn't to stop new infections which is almost impossible, but to "flatten the curve" to spread infections out over a longer period so the services aren't hit as hard.

 A really interesting article about South Korea: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without their cases have fallen for 5 days straight now. 500 a day for the last 2 weeks, now down to 131. The test more than anywhere else (10k / day) for free in drive-thrus. 200k tests done, 7.5k cases, 54 deaths.

No lockdown as far as I'm aware there, but lots of people on their way in have to register and are monitored, people tested positive are tracked with mobile phone and credit card payment details to warn others who came in contact, masks on people in shops.

From the article:

Quote

Despite these facilities, Kim said it would be difficult for an open society such as South Korea or other OECD countries, to enforce lockdowns as seen in China. This was highlighted when Hong Ik-pyo was forced to resign as the chief spokesman of the ruling Democratic Party after he came under fire over his remarks that Daegu City, the epicentre of the recent outbreak, should be locked down.

Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts.

 

Edited by IAmNick
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1 hour ago, ralphindevon said:

Agree. When I was in Singapore recently the media would produce a family tree type illustration, they hadn't had any deaths so it was of everyone who had been tested positive.

You could check out every cluster, most cases came in clusters, like churches, a business convention and a couple of large workplaces. Surprisingly very few if any got it by just going about every day life, like commuting or shopping.

The whole of Singapore was a model of how things should be done a number of experts have said. A bit wierd to get back to Heathrow and not see or speak to a single airport official between the plane and my car. Just an automated passport machine.

 

Exactly this Ralph. 
I’d have expected information exactly like the family-tree style you refer to. 
Person A has died. They are connected to Person B who tested positive and attended a business conference in London on 25th Feb. Also present at the conference was Person C who tested positive but has now recovered, who had recently returned from Venice on 20th Feb. 
Would be good to get this kind of detail so that the general public could understand that you won’t get this just by walking along the street (or by shopping for toilet roll!) 

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1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

Strange. I was led to believe that it was only us older folk that were selfish and cared only about themselves. Ummm.

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11 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

The US are handling it awfully and will be one of the worst affected countries in my opinion. I'm certainly no fan of Boris Johnson or the Tories but I think we're actually doing the right thing so far.

They're waiting to implement a full lockdown as I understand it at it's a massive step and you can't do it for long - if you do it too early you lose the positive effect of it as after a while people get restless, break it, and it spreads worse than before. It has to be carefully timed to hit around the start of the peak as far as I'm aware, if you're going to do it.

The point isn't to stop new infections which is almost impossible, but to "flatten the curve" to spread infections out over a longer period so the services aren't hit as hard.

 A really interesting article about South Korea: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without their cases have fallen for 5 days straight now. 500 a day for the last 2 weeks, now down to 131. The test more than anywhere else (10k / day) for free in drive-thrus. 200k tests done, 7.5k cases, 54 deaths.

No lockdown as far as I'm aware there, but lots of people on their way in have to register and are monitored, people tested positive are tracked with mobile phone and credit card payment details to warn others who came in contact, masks on people in shops.

From the article:

 

That's interesting, thanks, although as with all the information we're being given , over a very short period of time. My concern is over a lack of consensus and the fact that we are desperately unprepared for a situation such as Italy finds itself in despite being given a couple of weeks notice. Things are about to get significantly worse and we currently do not seen to have any coherent strategy in place to deal with it. Or maybe I'm just not getting those emails.

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2 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Appreciate your considered response.

However the comments you make about China are exactly why I suggested an infection rate of 1 % for the UK as opposed to 0.006 % identified in China. Cant 'see how we are going to get 4 times the deaths which have occurred in China which is the predicted number using UK  infection of 1% with  1.87 % dying from the virus.

People forecasting 80 % of the  UK population having the Coronavirus are simply scaremongering and causing unnecessary concern and panic. Italy today has 0.02 % of it's population with the virus for example.

I agree it seems unlikely we will end up with that many deaths.

However, the “people” you refer to are the UK chief medical officer - and it’s not a forecast as such, it’s a reasonable worst-case scenario and one he said was unlikely.

That’s not “scaremongering”, that’s one of the most qualified medical experts in the country making a statement based on considered analysis.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/80-people-uk-catch-coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-12339867/amp/

Edited by ChippenhamRed
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I'm currently self isolating on the advice of my GP. Despite the fact im quite young and pretty fit I do feel like death, and I'd rather not give anything to someone who would seriously suffer with it.

I was told I'm not going to be screened because (despite showing all symptoms) I haven't been abroad at all, which puts paid to any idea I had of remaining NHS sensibility. There's 2 other people in buildings within 200yds of me also under isolation so I'm shit scared.

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9 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Tory MP Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with covid-19, been in contact with 100s of people over the past three days including the PM - strap yourselves in everyone... 

Christ. That could be massive. Hope she - and everyone else diagnosed - makes a speedy recovery.

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10 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Tory MP Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with covid-19, been in contact with 100s of people over the past three days including the PM - strap yourselves in everyone... 

The health minister no less.

Elite level irony.

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7 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said:

I'm currently self isolating on the advice of my GP. Despite the fact im quite young and pretty fit I do feel like death, and I'd rather not give anything to someone who would seriously suffer with it.

I was told I'm not going to be screened because (despite showing all symptoms) I haven't been abroad at all, which puts paid to any idea I had of remaining NHS sensibility. There's 2 other people in buildings within 200yds of me also under isolation so I'm shit scared.

Christ. Look after yourself. It must be a horrible thing to be going through.

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47 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Tory MP Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with covid-19, been in contact with 100s of people over the past three days including the PM - strap yourselves in everyone... 

And I believe Boris was at Westminster Abbey yesterday with the Royal family - including the Queen.....!

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46 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Tory MP Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with covid-19, been in contact with 100s of people over the past three days including the PM - strap yourselves in everyone... 

All those people who got flooded were well royaly pissed of with him Sunday,imagine their outrage if Bojo has only gone and passed the virus around as well 

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8 hours ago, Sturny said:

It's possible to effect people 4.5 meters away and it can linger in the air for 30 minutes 

Well that’s new info - the consistent stuff has previously said ‘close contact’ when you are vulnerable to catch this infection is defined as being within 2 metres of someone for 15 minutes - where did you get your facts from? Not saying you’re wrong, but it’s contradictory 

Edited by BS4 on Tour...
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