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Nottingham Forest (a) - Wed 18.00 - What Can We Expect?


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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Carey 6 said:

Have heard Hunt & Massengo are both out tonight.

out out?

Dropped or injured?

Vyner at RB then

Edited by Davefevs
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10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

out out?

Dropped or injured?

Vyner at RB then

Or potentially Kalas?

My forest mate reckons it'll be 0-0 but probably has no idea how bad we actually have been recently.

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2 minutes ago, SinéadB said:

My forest mate reckons it'll be 0-0 but probably has no idea how bad we actually have been recently.

I think you should let your mate know...if only to lull them into a false sense of security. It may be our only hope.

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5 minutes ago, Carey 6 said:

Heard both are carrying knocks from Sunday’s game

Convenient for Hunt.

4 minutes ago, SinéadB said:

Or potentially Kalas?

My forest mate reckons it'll be 0-0 but probably has no idea how bad we actually have been recently.

I think Kalas will be back in for Baker.

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3-0 Forest. Formation/ team selection irrelevant as players have stopped playing and downed tools. LJ lost the dressing room pre lockdown and his selections and decisions since then seem to confirm that as he has no idea who he can and can’t trust.

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It's hard to say how it might go.

We'll likely lose in any case but bear in mind the following- and this is thinking pre injury, or other enforced changes or whatever so my view might change when we get a better idea of team news!

  1. Nottingham Forest, rarely for a home side in the top third/top half say, aren't a side who focus overly on possession. Cardiff. at times Millwall and one other- can we guess who the other is? No prizes however!
  2. If we force them to come out a bit and I don't mean park the bus, I mean a positive counter pressing game, this can open u[ space and opportunity to exploit their errors- or at least force them out of a comfort zone. See Middlesbrough and Millwall away from last year as two notable examples. Less ball, vs sides we'd often expect to have more against and we win. I'm all for the progressive, possession based game in general btw.
  3. They appear to be better without the ball. Forcing sides without the ball to have more of it can as above, force them out of a comfort zone. At home as well, this onus can increase on a side to push even if comfortable with less of the ball but the lack of a home crowd may negate this factor.
  4. Where they diverge from us is that they have reasonable shot dominance but not so much in terms of possession- we have neither!

I'd either go with my favoured 4-3-3 (whatever variant) and look to outmanouvere or I'd look to capitalise on their style and counter press them into issues.

Quote
Shots
English Championship - Home - 2019/2020
Position Team Played Shots Shots per game
For Agst For Agst
1 Leeds 18 311 141 17.28 7.83
2 Brentford 18 285 158 15.83 8.78
3 Fulham 19 293 202 15.42 10.63
4 West Brom 18 266 184 14.78 10.22
5 Nott'm Forest 19 279 220 14.68 11.57

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=basics_shots

Fair's fair, this is quite rudimentary stuff but as we can see- a certain level of shot dominance even without dominance of the ball.

EDIT: Unsure how well it's updated yet from the weekend or very most recent games. Not interested in top 4, will adjust Nottingham Forest's figures accordingly based on Sky Stats for Sunday. The shots against could be rounded as well to 11.58.

I also took the opportunity to have a look at every Nottingham Forest home game this season, stats again as per Sky Sports.

Once- only once- have they won with >50% possession at home. Luton in January! Other games in which they have exceeded 50%, have seen them either draw or lose.

In fact I have looked a little deeper and their record in home games with 50% and above possession:

P10W1D4L5.

Make of that what you will.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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What I'd like to see, Weimann/Wells narrower then the Wednesday game so the three can link up together and drift as all 3 are capable of playing each role in that

                                              Maenpaa

Vyner                   Williams                       Benkovic             Dasilva

                              Nagy                             Smith

                                                Palmer

                Weimann                                              Wells

                                                Afobe 

    

Edited by hodge
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13 minutes ago, hodge said:

What I'd like to see, Weimann/Wells narrower then the Wednesday game so the three can link up together and drift as all 3 are capable of playing each role in that

                                              Maenpaa

Vyner                   Williams                       Benkovic             Dasilva

                              Nagy                             Smith

                                                Palmer

                Weimann                                              Wells

                                                Afobe 

    

 

Prefer Baker to Benko but otherwise I like the look of that.

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3 hours ago, Highguy said:

Wouldnt be shocked if wells is on bench tonight going by recent interviews by LJ, also no Palmer as both are part of the pink boots crew😂

All seriousness tho id go 352 

                   Bentley

       Kalas, williams,benkovic

Hunt                                      Dasilva

             Nagy    massengo

                    Palmer

           Afobe        wells

 

Yes please!

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3 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

Prefer Baker to Benko but otherwise I like the look of that.

For me Baker blunts our ability with the ball in our back 4, he's very keen to either play a 30 yard ball forward or just play back to his other CB, he doesn't have a great ability to play forward passes or is just reluctant to play to people he thinks could be under pressure and it results in us losing possession a lot. I'm also just keen for Benkovic to have a go, seemingly everyone else is.... and he was bought by Leicester for £12m, was hardly terrible before lockdown in his first few games trying to settle in, he's had time now, LJ said as much in an interview about getting that time with the new players so its on him for them to perform.

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