ExiledAjax Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 In another thread I accused FourFourTwo of making the laziest set of predictions I'd ever seen, so thought maybe I'd take a look, stump up, and try to come up with a more thought through alternative. Hopefully the below might stimulate a broader debate than FourFourTwo’s “last season’s play off teams plus the old Prem teams” top six and “newly promoted plus Sheff Wed” bottom 3. Before I dive in - my thoughts on Bristol City. If we still had LJ in charge I’d probably have us finishing lower than 20th. Honestly we were abject for much of last season and by most measures and metrics we had more in common with Luton and Charlton than with the teams in the top 6. Under Holden (in a 5 game sample) we improved. Slightly. In pre-season we seem to be doing ok. Just. I’m still not expecting fireworks this term, and honestly suspect we will find ourselves flirting with the relegation positions at least once over the course of the 46 games. I expect a lower mid-table finish. Then again it could all click. We could find balance in midfield, see our youngsters flourish, and Nakhi Wells could finally hit 20 league goals in a season. We live in hope. General disclaimer that all of the below is with a month of transfers left to go, so much could change. Take me to task on this all you want, dredge it up in April next year and ridicule me if you like, but here’s some alternative ideas. The Top Six 1. Brentford are the obvious choice for the title given how strongly they finished last season, and how strong they were throughout it. 2020/21 will likely see them without Watkins, but they survived losing Maupay last term and are bringing Toney in who could (or could not) do well. If they can retain the defensive unit from last season, and not lose too much up front, then they'll be dangerous yet again. A new stadium may hinder them as they settle in, but that really isn't a reason to drop them out of the top two. I really can't argue with FourFourTwo on this one. 2. Watford are probably the strongest of the teams coming down from the premier league. If they recruit well and stabilise their backroom staff then they will be a force to be reckoned with. So far they seem to be retaining an awful lot of serious Premier League talent and although Ivic is a bit of an unknown quantity you’d expect players like Sarr, Deeney, Hughes and Foster to be utterly comfortable at this lower level. 3. Stoke are a team who finished far lower than their performances suggested. With this summer possibly seeing the final remnants of the relegated team cleared out, we could see a revitalised and focussed squad under Michael O’Neill. 4. Preston North End were unlucky to miss out on a play-off position last season. A solid squad who are well settled under Alex Neil. They benefited from a high number of penalties last season - but you don’t get penalties if you’re not consistently getting the ball into dangerous areas on your opponent’s box, so it indicates a good level of attacking play. 5. Actually found this the toughest position to call. In the end I have gone for Nottingham Forest to grab 5th. A strong and steady season last time out saw this team manage to get the final positive shot differential of the league (a minor 0.2, but positive nonetheless). Lamouchi is now settled as manager and although Lyle Taylor is unlikely to reproduce last season’s exploits, he should be able to support Grabban in attack. Again, agree with FourFourTwo on this one. 6. Barnsley were such a strong attacking force last time out, and so tenacious in defence. Really they are just a clinical striker and a calm head or two away from a goal difference of +10. In my opinion this team are serious dark horses for this season and if they can get some luck and learn to finish their chances then they could be far higher up the table than last term. Dark horses for me are Swansea who have recruited well but have some inconsistencies to iron out, and Derby who seemed to splutter their way through last season but have the ingredients there to do well. The Bottom Three I think the bottom three is much harder to call than the top 6. There were some terrible teams in this division last year and it’s not looking much stronger this time out. I’ve explained my three choices below but could have equally gone for Wycombe, Coventry, and Rotherham. We could well see a real battle royale in the bottom 8 this year. 22. Huddersfield struggled for goals in the Premier League, and seemingly have still not solved that problem as they scored a measly 52 in 2019/20. Sacking the Cowleys saw them turn to Bielsa’s deputy as the new man. He may prove himself his own man but with a squad vastly inferior to Leeds he will do well to replicate even a shadow of his mentor’s championship winning team. 23. Reading could be safe if the newly promoted sides struggle, but I fancy all three of those teams to stay up. Reading however have been struggling for a few seasons now and I suspect this may be the one that sees them crumble. No one will miss the Madejski if they do go down. 24. Luton will suffer a serious case of second-season syndrome. An abject shot differential of nearly -6 last season, and a goal difference of -28 are both indicative of some serious underlying issues in the team. 19th flattered them and I expect them to prop up the rest come May 2021. An explanation is required regarding Sheffield Wednesday as many would expect them to automatically go down with a hefty -12 points deduction. However they performed strongly last season and so I think they'll finish just, just clear of relegation. The Owls have a solid squad including Rhodes and Izzy Brown (one of Luton’s better players last season) and I suspect they’ll do just enough to stay up. 50 points is your normal benchmark for safety, so this team effectively need 62 points. They managed 56 last term, can they get 2 more wins to see them safe? Are they capable of a mid-table finish under normal circumstances? Absolutely yes. I'd love to hear what some of the guests we have on here from other teams think. @pnefcok, @Owl Visiting, @NIGHTMARE are some of the ones I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seventeen Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Reasoning behind Wycombe beating the drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tin Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 For me, it’s three from Norwich, Watford, Stoke, Brentford, Swansea, Cardiff to go up and three from Wycombe, Rotherham, Sheff Weds, Luton, Coventry, Birmingham to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 The interesting one for me is Watford. They`ll either be top six or relegated IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lrrr Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 @ExiledAjax interesting you list Rhodes as one of Wednesday's strong points when he's scored 17 championship goals in the last 4 seasons For me Norwich - Recruited well and have yet to lose many top players Brentford - Yet to lose star players and seemingly gaining Toney (although could be Watkins leaving as a result) Derby - Very strong second half of the season Cardiff - Harris came in and gave a good lift, think they could well carry that through Stoke - Hard to beat under O'Neill Millwall - Not lost anyone, Woods added on a permanent and Troy Parrott could come good Next guess - Swansea Relegation 22nd - Wednesday -12 points too much to survive 23rd - Huddersfield - I think the gamble on head coach won't pay off 24th - Rotherham - perennial yoyo team Next guesses - Reading (depends on next head coach) and Wycombe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lrrr Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 51 minutes ago, Seventeen said: Reasoning behind Wycombe beating the drop? Sense of unity around Wycombe would be my guess, they started with a handful of 1st team players last season (single figures), favourites to go down and put together a squad that gained promotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUSSEL85 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 I have seen a few people throw Barnsley in and around the top 6. Is there any reasoning for this or have I missed something from their relegation battle last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, Lrrr said: @ExiledAjax interesting you list Rhodes as one of Wednesday's strong points when he's scored 17 championship goals in the last 4 seasons Fair, he's living off past glories in my head then. 38 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said: I have seen a few people throw Barnsley in and around the top 6. Is there any reasoning for this or have I missed something from their relegation battle last season? Basically their attacking stats were up there with the very best last season. More shots than Fulham, and only Fulham, Leeds and Brentford had more shots on target than Barnsley. They just couldn't turn those chances into goals. At the other end they conceded heavily but that wasn't because they were constantly under siege or overwhelmed by their opponents. They finished very strongly as well, losing only twice in the restart. This included those last two impressive wins against Brentford and Forest. Essentially they have the nuts and bolts of a side much, much better than 21st. They perhaps need an upgrade on their goalkeeper, and certainly need a striker who can hit the target, but the basics are there. I could well be overestimating them given them 6th, but I really think they'll be top half. Understandable if people don't agree - after all they were only safe from relegation because of Wigan's off the pitch trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 14 hours ago, Seventeen said: Reasoning behind Wycombe beating the drop? Akinfenwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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