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Realistic Expectations


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What was your expected points total from the first 10 games?

If it was anything other than 30pts, where did you think we would drop points? Stoke away? Forest away?

Point is, whilst it is frustrating to drop points, it is inevitable. I appreciate some will say it’s the nature of the defeats, but then it’s also the nature of the wins or draws. 

Let’s vent a little if need be, but keep it in perspective and let’s dig a little deeper after 10 games.

Edited by 054123
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I'm still trying to stay grounded. A post on twitter showed that the last time we started a season this successfully we ended up 13th, sobering. Our first defeat feels bitter. I'm happy with the start and some of the performances of course but trying to not let it get to me! I'm still saying top 10. 

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28 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think if we’re still top 6 after 10 games that’s good going. My expectations are top 6 anyway so that would be about right. I didn’t expect 4 wins on the trot though.

My expectations are top six but wouldn't be angry if we narrowly missed out. Teams are still finding their feet in this division and it would be interesting to see what the league looks like in a month / 6 games.

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Top half and being entertained all season giving the young players a chance. Basically carry on as we have so far. But maybe not expecting a slightly worse record than we have so far this season. 

All those things I'll be happy. Obviously I want promotion but I accept it's bloody tough to get out of this league.

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1 hour ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

My expectations are top six but wouldn't be angry if we narrowly missed out. Teams are still finding their feet in this division and it would be interesting to see what the league looks like in a month / 6 games.

 

45 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Top half and being entertained all season giving the young players a chance. Basically carry on as we have so far. But maybe not expecting a slightly worse record than we have so far this season. 

All those things I'll be happy. Obviously I want promotion but I accept it's bloody tough to get out of this league.

I think it depends on the context if we do miss out. As supporters we should be expecting top 6 if you’re going to be black and white about it.

That was LJ’s remit - he failed to meet it and was sacked. Board have backed Holden well so there’s no excuses if we don’t make it.

I think, say we ended up 8th and short by 6 points but we played good football and continued to blood young players, most supporters would accept this. In reality I’d probably be happy about that but I also think we need to hold the board and management to their own standards.

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1 minute ago, Phileas Fogg said:

 

I think it depends on the context if we do miss out. As supporters we should be expecting top 6 if you’re going to be black and white about it.

That was LJ’s remit - he failed to meet it and was sacked. Board have backed Holden well so there’s no excuses if we don’t make it.

I think, say we ended up 8th and short by 6 points but we played good football and continued to blood young players, most supporters would accept this. In reality I’d probably be happy about that but I also think we need to hold the board and management to their own standards.

Absolutely.

But in order to finish 8th you’re going to have nights like last night but similarly your Forest aways.

Its not great and a bitter pill at the time, but it is going to happen.

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8 minutes ago, 054123 said:

Absolutely.

But in order to finish 8th you’re going to have nights like last night but similarly your Forest aways.

Its not great and a bitter pill at the time, but it is going to happen.

Warnock teams are made for nights like yesterday. Nullifying and frustrating a positive team with lots of young players. Won’t be pretty but it’s effective. 

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I thought 10-12th, but that was before the signings and also before the injuries. After watching 6 games I'm still not sure how good we are, or can be. Until we have a full squad to choose from I think it will be difficult. What I will say is, I don't think we will have a better chance to get promoted. Of all years, the Championship looks it's most open. There are no stand out teams, at least yet, and if we had a full squad we could have taken advantage. Still might happen, but haven't seen anything so far that makes me think we will definitely  finish top 6.

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2 hours ago, 054123 said:

What was your expected points total from the first 10 games?

If it was anything other than 30pts, where did you think we would drop points? Stoke away? Forest away?

Point is, whilst it is frustrating to drop points, it is inevitable. I appreciate some will say it’s the nature of the defeats, but then it’s also the nature of the wins or draws. 

Let’s vent a little if need be, but keep it in perspective and let’s dig a little deeper after 10 games.

Here’s my guesses for a prediction League I’m in. Apologies, it’s a screenshot of a screenshot!

I had 15 from 10 - w4, d3, l3

But I expected a top 6 challenge too.

D6DDCC43-2327-4FEF-8AA6-47A7E3CE2E91.jpeg.b3fb5d03a1d3bc41926c80200f13150f.jpeg

2 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think if we’re still top 6 after 10 games that’s good going. My expectations are top 6 anyway so that would be about right. I didn’t expect 4 wins on the trot though.

We should’ve come away from last night with a 0-0.  That will annoy Dean I suspect.

It does seem rather fickle to be moaning with 13 points from 6 games.

For all my “hashtag holdenball” mentions, I’ve been pretty grounded.  I see lots of room for improvement, but we probably have a couple of points more on the board than we deserve from overall performances. Even if we had 11 on the board that would be a good start.

We will obviously see how the next 3 go...and Huddersfield look like they have a system well set already under Corboran, so 4 tough games to take us to 10.

Perhaps you could call us the underdogs in the next 3.  We will see if that suits us.  A few of us mentioned that we might see results depend on the type of opponent.  Barnsley and Boro are physical teams, Barnsley physical in the high press, Boro, in the midfield press.

Swansea, Bournemouth and Norwich much less physical (subject to me doing proper analysis on them).

 

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11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s my guesses for a prediction League I’m in. Apologies, it’s a screenshot of a screenshot!

I had 15 from 10 - w4, d3, l3

But I expected a top 6 challenge too.

D6DDCC43-2327-4FEF-8AA6-47A7E3CE2E91.jpeg.b3fb5d03a1d3bc41926c80200f13150f.jpeg

We should’ve come away from last night with a 0-0.  That will annoy Dean I suspect.

It does seem rather fickle to be moaning with 13 points from 6 games.

For all my “hashtag holdenball” mentions, I’ve been pretty grounded.  I see lots of room for improvement, but we probably have a couple of points more on the board than we deserve from overall performances. Even if we had 11 on the board that would be a good start.

We will obviously see how the next 3 go...and Huddersfield look like they have a system well set already under Corboran, so 4 tough games to take us to 10.

Perhaps you could call us the underdogs in the next 3.  We will see if that suits us.  A few of us mentioned that we might see results depend on the type of opponent.  Barnsley and Boro are physical teams, Barnsley physical in the high press, Boro, in the midfield press.

Swansea, Bournemouth and Norwich much less physical (subject to me doing proper analysis on them).

 

That's brilliant, Dave - first decent use of a dymo-tape machine I've seen!

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I actually thought the fixture list handed us a kind start to the season and whoever took over would've got a flying start prior to the international break. That's why my feet remained on the ground and the next week will tell us what we can realistically expect come May.

I thought 15-20 points from the opening 30 was realistic and that remains the case. Go in with a virtually unchanged line-up against Swansea, Bournemouth and Norwich will be asking for trouble and 16-18 from 30 is on the cards. 

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5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s my guesses for a prediction League I’m in. Apologies, it’s a screenshot of a screenshot!

I had 15 from 10 - w4, d3, l3

But I expected a top 6 challenge too.

D6DDCC43-2327-4FEF-8AA6-47A7E3CE2E91.jpeg.b3fb5d03a1d3bc41926c80200f13150f.jpeg

We should’ve come away from last night with a 0-0.  That will annoy Dean I suspect.

It does seem rather fickle to be moaning with 13 points from 6 games.

For all my “hashtag holdenball” mentions, I’ve been pretty grounded.  I see lots of room for improvement, but we probably have a couple of points more on the board than we deserve from overall performances. Even if we had 11 on the board that would be a good start.

We will obviously see how the next 3 go...and Huddersfield look like they have a system well set already under Corboran, so 4 tough games to take us to 10.

Perhaps you could call us the underdogs in the next 3.  We will see if that suits us.  A few of us mentioned that we might see results depend on the type of opponent.  Barnsley and Boro are physical teams, Barnsley physical in the high press, Boro, in the midfield press.

Swansea, Bournemouth and Norwich much less physical (subject to me doing proper analysis on them).

 

Historically we do better against footballing teams, and  no one has hit their straps yet. I was worried about our last two games, don't know why, but less so for the next two. That's not to say they won't be difficult, but we will be given a chance to play. I think 7/8 points is achievable but equally 3/4 . A massive caveat has to be our fitness list. If Williams and Walsh aren't near a start, why the hell did we sell Morrell?
One request @Davefevs , can you sort out the font and colouring on your prediction chart, it's doing my old eyes no favours at all 🤣

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56 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

 

I think it depends on the context if we do miss out. As supporters we should be expecting top 6 if you’re going to be black and white about it.

That was LJ’s remit - he failed to meet it and was sacked. Board have backed Holden well so there’s no excuses if we don’t make it.

I think, say we ended up 8th and short by 6 points but we played good football and continued to blood young players, most supporters would accept this. In reality I’d probably be happy about that but I also think we need to hold the board and management to their own standards.

I don't think the board will definitely sack Holden if he doesn't make top 6. 

I think Lansdown will look at other things when making that decision, not simply top 6 or out.

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59 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

 

I think it depends on the context if we do miss out. As supporters we should be expecting top 6 if you’re going to be black and white about it.

That was LJ’s remit - he failed to meet it and was sacked. Board have backed Holden well so there’s no excuses if we don’t make it.

I think, say we ended up 8th and short by 6 points but we played good football and continued to blood young players, most supporters would accept this. In reality I’d probably be happy about that but I also think we need to hold the board and management to their own standards.

Completely agree. 
 

If top six minimum isn’t the expectation then there was little point in getting rid of Johnson.

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7 minutes ago, One Team said:

Completely agree. 
 

If top six minimum isn’t the expectation then there was little point in getting rid of Johnson.

Top 6 is where we need to be. Top 2 would be perfect and a bonus.

There are no stand out teams in this division so far, so there is an opportunity for most clubs in this division to get into the Premier League.

What we do need to do is stay in touch and not have poor losing streaks of 4,5,6, or 7 games in a row or we will be faced with another LJ situation.

We need our start performers to stay fit. Worrying injury to Mawson last night. It's fine margins like injuries that can make or break a clubs season.

The next few games is where Dean and his management teams ability very much comes into focus. 

Teams now know who our dangerous personnel are and how to nullify them. We need to be equally as astute to change when we get sussed.

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25 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I don't think the board will definitely sack Holden if he doesn't make top 6. 

I think Lansdown will look at other things when making that decision, not simply top 6 or out.

Yes I think any decision would be made on the bigger picture - but it’s got to be the main consideration when assessing success. 

If he fulfils other areas of the accepted ‘remit’ supporters have given - ie playing attractive football, blooding young players - how low a league position would people accept? 

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45 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Historically we do better against footballing teams, and  no one has hit their straps yet. I was worried about our last two games, don't know why, but less so for the next two. That's not to say they won't be difficult, but we will be given a chance to play. I think 7/8 points is achievable but equally 3/4 . A massive caveat has to be our fitness list. If Williams and Walsh aren't near a start, why the hell did we sell Morrell?
One request @Davefevs , can you sort out the font and colouring on your prediction chart, it's doing my old eyes no favours at all 🤣

Come on....do you really think that is something I created?  You’ve upset me now! 😭😭😭

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18 points ftom first 10 games would be excellent. 

Just to put our flying start into perspective after 6 games last season Charlton were 2nd on 14 points & got relegated!

Bakinson needs help from a 'proper' midfielder as HNM did in opening fixture. Paterson & Wienman both in there not good in the long term.

Two bad results is not a calamity but we need to bounce back quickly with some difficult fixtures coming up.

On a positive note most games have been more entertaining than recent seasons & I feel we will have a good season.

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No doubt a decent start so far and we've been undone by a couple of individual errors in last 2 games that cost us points. 

But I'm always surprised to hear fans say they expect top 6 - we've achieved it once in 20+ years. Yes the club tell us top 6 is their aim but they won't sell many STs if they said they we're aiming for the relative safety of mid table.

Expecting Top 6 is like Del Boy saying this time next year we'll be millionaires.

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4 hours ago, 054123 said:

What was your expected points total from the first 10 games?

If it was anything other than 30pts, where did you think we would drop points? Stoke away? Forest away?

Point is, whilst it is frustrating to drop points, it is inevitable. I appreciate some will say it’s the nature of the defeats, but then it’s also the nature of the wins or draws. 

Let’s vent a little if need be, but keep it in perspective and let’s dig a little deeper after 10 games.

 

Good post.

I always thought if Holden can steer us in at the end of the season in a higher position than Johnson managed, then he'll have done OK.  He has inherited most of the squad from LJ's reign and has made one decent addition (Chris Martin) and we await to see how the others will work out. Many of the structural problems of LJ's era still seem to be with us.

We've had some pretty underwhelming performances against not particularly strong teams recently, which does not bode well for us retaining our top 6 position. 

However, we've all had decades of watching City struggle against weaker sides then turn it on against contenders, so maybe this will just be another example of this.

As you hint in your OP, as fans we should take  more games to decide what is working, what isn't working and not rush to judgement on individuals. In Otib, this usually means writing people off and scapegoating them for poor team performances, but it can also mean over-praising individuals, particularly young and inexperienced players. One good game and some folk are calling a player a "world-beater".

I was bitterly disappointed with our lack of threat in last night's game, but it is but one game.  If we are still in the top 6 anywhere by Christmas I'll be happy. That gives us a base to consolidate on during the rest of the season. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

Good post.

I always thought if Holden can steer us in at the end of the season in a higher position than Johnson managed, then he'll have done OK.  He has inherited most of the squad from LJ's reign and has made one decent addition (Chris Martin) and we await to see how the others will work out. Many of the structural problems of LJ's era still seem to be with us.

We've had some pretty underwhelming performances against not particularly strong teams recently, which does not bode well for us retaining our top 6 position. 

However, we've all had decades of watching City struggle against weaker sides then turn it on against contenders, so maybe this will just be another example of this.

As you hint in your OP, as fans we should take  more games to decide what is working, what isn't working and not rush to judgement on individuals. In Otib, this usually means writing people off and scapegoating them for poor team performances, but it can also mean over-praising individuals, particularly young and inexperienced players. One good game and some folk are calling a player a "world-beater".

I was bitterly disappointed with our lack of threat in last night's game, but it is but one game.  If we are still in the top 6 anywhere by Christmas I'll be happy. That gives us a base to consolidate on during the rest of the season. 

 

As it stands we’ve played 3 bottom half teams and 3 teams in the top half, but none of the top 6, if I add Wednesday’s 12pts back in.

C22B8B26-54DD-4CAC-86EB-B5E9E94BBAF1.thumb.jpeg.6885f55518ea95d586ec006407d9e1f8.jpeg

For a team expecting to be challenging in the playoffs, we need to win more of those than we lose...so we’ve done that.

We will get a better picture against the next 3, all top 7 teams.  I’d say we’ve played a decent mix by then.

That 9/10 game start is probably gonna be a representative mix of fixtures across the rest of the season.

 

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IMO, it's still far too early to say, because we're yet to see how this team bounces back from a loss.

I still think we're looking towards mid-table or worse, despite a decent transfer window - but that's pure speculation based on how I felt when Dean was appointed and the changes we've made.

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I never predict individual matches as there are so many variables, but before the season started I expected City to finish somewhere between 12th and 8th. I still think this is realistic.  After Holden’s appointment a lot of people were predicting mid table or even lower but, following  4 wins,  this seems to be have forgotten 

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10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

As it stands we’ve played 3 bottom half teams and 3 teams in the top half, but none of the top 6, if I add Wednesday’s 12pts back in.

C22B8B26-54DD-4CAC-86EB-B5E9E94BBAF1.thumb.jpeg.6885f55518ea95d586ec006407d9e1f8.jpeg

For a team expecting to be challenging in the playoffs, we need to win more of those than we lose...so we’ve done that.

We will get a better picture against the next 3, all top 7 teams.  I’d say we’ve played a decent mix by then.

That 9/10 game start is probably gonna be a representative mix of fixtures across the rest of the season.

 

 

Well the last point you made was my real point, but Boro were lower before playing us and Stoke had done f- all but have improved since.

As I said, we should know more clearly where we stand at Christmas. The first few matches of the season have the table all over the place.

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16 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Yes I think any decision would be made on the bigger picture - but it’s got to be the main consideration when assessing success. 

If he fulfils other areas of the accepted ‘remit’ supporters have given - ie playing attractive football, blooding young players - how low a league position would people accept? 

I really still think Holden is our ‘Covid’ Manager, holding the fort and doing the things you mentioned until times move on and we can get fans back and justify a big name Pat Lam type manager. 

Obviously if he is successful in his own right things could change, but I’m sure now with the rugby success SL will want the same for the football. No we are never going to be a big team, but we can be a top Championship/lower Prem club who builds a community and plays football the right way.

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