Bristol R*vers dustbin thread

[bert tann]

9 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

The other point to consider, is life expectancy.

I would assume there is a 25 year life on most stands, before they get to the realms of maintenance vs replacement.

So it needs to be paid off ASAP before it becomes a liability. Number of ways you could do that, a non maintenance lease buta lease long enough that it generates a return, keeping revenue (or part of it) the stadium generates, or only offering it to a tenant on an as-needed basis, meaning they venue reverts back to a holding company on a non match day.

If there is high density residential, then they might struggle to get a late night/frequent evening use license, other than football and weekend evenings.

Who know however!

You, and also Rich in the post above, make extremely good points and it is noticeable that no educated discussion like this takes place on the Rovers fans forums.

Sensible business folk, especially landlords, know the high risk of dealing with a football club which  is why UWE were insisting on financial guarantees from Nicholas (backed by the Sainsburys money) and wouldn’t negotiate with Dwane Sports unless a cash bond was going to be put in place.

Any deal at the Fruit Market will be no different so if the Al-Qadi family cut their losses by taking the Mem sale proceeds it will surely be a requirement of the deal that they transfer their shares in Rovers free gratis to credible new ownership which is capable of creating a viable business at the stadium and therefore be able to pay the rent.

[PHILINFRANCE]

20 minutes ago, bert tann said:

You, and also Rich in the post above, make extremely good points and it is noticeable that no educated discussion like this takes place on the Rovers fans forums.

I would suggest it depends on which of the two forums one reads.

A certain ex-Director with Swiss connections speaks both eloquently and knowledgeably on one of the forums: amusingly, to me, he was banned from the other forum for that very reason, i.e. that his educated and insightful posts were too close to the unfortunate reality of the current Board’s operations.

[Port Said Red]

I still don't see where the developers gain in this. A stadium just doesn't fit with their plans for the area. I kmow they would apparently get the mem for development, but I don't think that would offset what they would lose in 

A) the loss of land for housing at their preferred site

B) the effect that a stadium with all the disruption it would bring, would have on the value of the surrounding properties.

If I was the development company, I would be making all the right noises to those parties that are in favour of a stadium whilst getting the go ahead on the rest of the development, but with no intention of actually following through with the plans.

[22A]

19 hours ago, Eddie Hitler said:

 

Yes, that's my understanding with a long lease at low rent being granted upon the ground.

 

When Rovers sold Eastville in the late 1940's, the agreement was to then rent at 4% of the ground's value. They failed to realise that if the value of the stadium increased, their rent would increase.

[22A]

It appears Rovers are used to playing on cabbage patches.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_Stadium_(Bristol)

The site was created on an area of land called Buffalo Bill's Field, after Colonel William "Buffalo Bill" Cody's Wild West Show was held there between 28 September and 3 October 1891.[3] Two years later in September 1893 Clifton RFC played on the site for the first time.

During the First World War the site was converted into allotments, but after the war Buffalo Bill's Field was bought by Sir Francis Nicholas Cowlin (then the Sheriff of Bristol) and given to Bristol Rugby Club. It was opened as the Memorial Ground on 24 September that year by G. B. Britton, the Lord Mayor of Bristol.

[redsquirrel]

16 hours ago, Rich said:

Even a modest stadium of say 20,000 would cost at least £50m. How are the developers going to recoup that money? They'd have to charge a hefty rent to cover the outlay and interest on such a figure. Not sure what the normal return figure and period is for commercial deals, I believe they'd be looking at paying off the build costs in less than 50 years, That's £1m per year plus interest which would be charged to their tenants.

The stadium outlets would be in their name and any other events staged there, so Rovers would be looking at matchday income only. The words white elephant spring to mind.

On another point, How many dwellings could they fit on 11 acres, depending on density/height, I'd wager several hundred. And as we're still being told we have a housing crisis in Bristol, wouldn't it be more profitable to build housing. The site at Totterdown bridge is about one third of the fruit market, at a guess, they're building 150 dwellings there. So if there were say 400 dwellings, 25% affordable and 300 at £200k that's £60m, pocketed straight away less development costs. This is where my fears of behind the scenes negotiations are taking place with Marvin's Rovers supporting deputy Mayor to give the developers a profit from the outset. I expect there's big wedges of council owned land in the form of riverside warehousing and council yards, being lined up to be transferred to the developing company.

you are of course absolutely right in the real world but this is that lot,  how much for a big new go outdoors centre wth a roll of fake grass laid in the existing tarmac? 

[Eddie Hitler]

7 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

I still don't see where the developers gain in this. A stadium just doesn't fit with their plans for the area. I kmow they would apparently get the mem for development, but I don't think that would offset what they would lose in 

A) the loss of land for housing at their preferred site

B) the effect that a stadium with all the disruption it would bring, would have on the value of the surrounding properties.

If I was the development company, I would be making all the right noises to those parties that are in favour of a stadium whilst getting the go ahead on the rest of the development, but with no intention of actually following through with the plans.

 

My guess would be that it's all about planning permission and s106 - affordable housing contribution.

When you put in for planning permission for a major redevelopment if it is going to be highly profitable then then planners may require you to have 40% affordable housing upon which you will make little if any money.

What this effectively means is that the planners will cap your overall profit to say 20% gross.

As that cap applies whatever then instead of building 40% affordable houses they are building a stadium which will be equally unprofitable for them but simply replaces a big chunk or all of the 40% affordable housing.

So the developer loses nothing by building the stadium as they still receive their 20% gross profit with the losers being people in Bristol seeking affordable housing.

The leger de main is that they have linked this stadium build to a buy option at a bargain rate for the Memorial Stadium land.

And then make 20% gross on that as well.

The developer is doing very nicely indeed out of this in my estimation.

[Port Said Red]

2 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

 

My guess would be that it's all about planning permission and s106 - affordable housing contribution.

When you put in for planning permission for a major redevelopment if it is going to be highly profitable then then planners may require you to have 40% affordable housing upon which you will make little if any money.

What this effectively means is that the planners will cap your overall profit to say 20% gross.

As that cap applies whatever then instead of building 40% affordable houses they are building a stadium which will be equally unprofitable for them but simply replaces a big chunk or all of the 40% affordable housing.

So the developer loses nothing by building the stadium as they still receive their 20% gross profit with the losers being people in Bristol seeking affordable housing.

The leger de main is that they have linked this stadium build to a buy option at a bargain rate for the Memorial Stadium land.

And then make 20% gross on that as well.

The developer is doing very nicely indeed out of this in my estimation.

Maybe, but I still wouldn't be holding my breath if I was any of them. 

[swindon fan]

As a comparison. Kassam sold off the Manor Ground for development, raked in millions and built the 3-sided monstrosity the football club now play in - charging them, I think, £750,000 pa in rent. The lease agreement is finishing reasonably soon so they either have to find a site and build a new stadium before they get embroiled in a new lease extension.

[pongo88]

17 hours ago, bert tann said:

You, and also Rich in the post above, make extremely good points and it is noticeable that no educated discussion like this takes place on the Rovers fans forums.

Sensible business folk, especially landlords, know the high risk of dealing with a football club which  is why UWE were insisting on financial guarantees from Nicholas (backed by the Sainsburys money) and wouldn’t negotiate with Dwane Sports unless a cash bond was going to be put in place.

Any deal at the Fruit Market will be no different so if the Al-Qadi family cut their losses by taking the Mem sale proceeds it will surely be a requirement of the deal that they transfer their shares in Rovers free gratis to credible new ownership which is capable of creating a viable business at the stadium and therefore be able to pay the rent.

Bert - you are a voice of reason from gas world, but I’m not sure of the last part of your post that I’ve highlighted. Let’s assume, after the excitement has worn off, gates average at the heady heights of 8- 9k at a new stadium.  When Nick Higgs was around he said that gates had to be £10k to break even. Since then wages have gone down but expenses have probably gone up. If the new stadium is fairly basic, with limited parking, non match day income is unlikely to be anything special. It would need either a peppercorn rent, or no rent at all, just to scrape by. Clubs such as Forest Green and Cheltenham can get by on small crowds, by being well run, but they are doomed to exist forever in divisions 1 or 2  

[CiderJar]

Grab some popcorn   and enjoy this thread...

 

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

1 hour ago, CiderJar said:

Grab some popcorn   and enjoy this thread...

 

 

[Major Isewater]

The Fruit Market project is not going to happen as hundreds of City fans have been walking their dogs there for generations. We’re just waiting for the right moment to disclose.

[Alan Dicks]

18 hours ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

 

Haha this what a typical Tote ender looked like.

[Swede]

19 hours ago, Alan Dicks said:

Haha this what a typical Tote ender looked like.

Yes; that would be Tote End Tarquin and Tote End Timothy.

[Dolman Block B]

The Gas called off their fixture against Crawley on Wednesday 

They must have it bad up there 

 

 

[Fordy62]

The bloke is such a prize cock…

 

still, comments made me laugh. 

[redsquirrel]

11 hours ago, Dolman Block B said:

The Gas called off their fixture against Crawley on Wednesday 

They must have it bad up there 

 

 

i expect they are more likely to have bird flu,  they're all cuckoo

[Lanterne Rouge]

24 minutes ago, redsquirrel said:

i expect they are more likely to have bird flu,  they're all cuckoo

Could be anything. Scabies, mange, trenchfoot........................................

[Bristol Rob]

16 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Could be anything. Scabies, mange, trenchfoot........................................

Never knew they had identified transfer targets.

Could be a formidable midfield.

[northsomersetred]

Anyone else get this for Xmas?

 

[Bob Taylor is GOD]

40 minutes ago, northsomersetred said:

Anyone else get this for Xmas?

 

I had it last year 

[Lanterne Rouge]

10 minutes ago, Bob Taylor is GOD said:

I had it last year 

I think you`ll find that, in this year`s edition, the gap is considerably wider.

[Southport Red]

4 hours ago, Bristol Rob said:

Never knew they had identified transfer targets.

Could be a formidable midfield.

Ridiculous comment!!!
 

scabies is a Centre Half

[Wiltshire robin]

100,000!!!!!!!

 

[Unan]

16 hours ago, Wiltshire robin said:

100,000!!!!!!!

 

What was that, a quarter of Bristol at the time? Including all children and elderly?

[Lanterne Rouge]

1 minute ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

What was that, a quarter of Bristol at the time? Including all children and elderly?

They really can`t help themselves can they?

[cheese]

17 hours ago, Wiltshire robin said:

100,000!!!!!!!

 

Is that where the old Concorde cinema used to be?

[GreedyHarry]

So nearly 70,000 locked out then.

 

[CodeRed]

12 minutes ago, cheese said:

Is that where the old Concorde cinema used to be?

Yes that's right.