Only one place left.

[GrahamC]

Barnsley lost again tonight, this means they have 14 points (2 wins) from 24 games & a goal difference of minus 20.

Derby have 7 points from 23 games (6 wins), so to even overtake our current points tally they need 7 more wins.

No way are either of these sides catching us, Barnsley are dreadful, on course for less than 30 points at this rate.

Peterborough have 19 points from 23 games & have lost 11/12 away games, they have a minus 24 goal difference, the worst in the division.

Incidentally we have beaten all 3 of these sides, of our 7 wins we have beaten all of the current bottom 5.

I do think the current bottom three will go down, but of the 3 Posh appear to be the only one with any sort of chance.

[1960maaan]

While I appreciate your logic, and I'm not disagreeing with what you say about this lot, my concern is us.
Because of how abject we were last year, and the seemingly minimal improvement this, I won't be counting Chickens just yet.
I hope your right, but until we rack up more points I am genuinely worried. 

[eardun]

I’ve always thought we’d be ok this season given the form of others and Derby’s points deduction. Fingers crossed! 

At the other end of the table, Blackburn are on fire. Six consecutive wins since their draw with us. Boro doing well too. 

[Ronnie Sinclair]

11 minutes ago, eardun said:

I’ve always thought we’d be ok this season given the form of others and Derby’s points deduction. Fingers crossed! 

At the other end of the table, Blackburn are on fire. Six consecutive wins since their draw with us. Boro doing well too. 

To think they’ve won 7 out of 8 since losing 0-7 to Fulham, they’ve bounced back very well 

[GrahamC]

38 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

While I appreciate your logic, and I'm not disagreeing with what you say about this lot, my concern is us.
Because of how abject we were last year, and the seemingly minimal improvement this, I won't be counting Chickens just yet.
I hope your right, but until we rack up more points I am genuinely worried. 

Here’s another fact, in the last 23 games of last season we earned just 15 points.

We have earned 27 points from the 23 league games we have played since, that is a lot more than “minimal improvement” to me.

[1960maaan]

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

Here’s another fact, in the last 23 games of last season we earned just 15 points.

We have earned 27 points from the 23 league games we have played since, that is a lot more than “minimal improvement” to me.

12 extra points, but rode our luck in many of those wins. We've rarely deserved to win a game, we rarely make lots of chances and we rarely look like keeping a clean sheet. Do you honestly think we have improved that much ? Genuine question, not trying to be funny. I really haven't seen anything that makes me think we will definitely get the points to stay up. This year being different means we don't  need that much to stay up, but it's most likely going to be points deductions, or teams being even worse than us that does it rather than our good form. 
Keeping James and Williams fit along with King changes expectation/hope levels, but with our record I take nothing for granted. 

[Kingswood Robin]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Here’s another fact, in the last 23 games of last season we earned just 15 points.

We have earned 27 points from the 23 league games we have played since, that is a lot more than “minimal improvement” to me.

That's the bit that concerns me still a little. When Big Ben strikes on 1st January we seem to fall apart and are capable of going 9/10 games and barely picking up a point. If we can reach the dizzy heights of 4 wins across the first 2 months of the year I'll feel a bit more comfortable !

[Rocking Red Cyril]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

12 extra points, but rode our luck in many of those wins. We've rarely deserved to win a game, we rarely make lots of chances and we rarely look like keeping a clean sheet. Do you honestly think we have improved that much ? Genuine question, not trying to be funny. I really haven't seen anything that makes me think we will definitely get the points to stay up. This year being different means we don't  need that much to stay up, but it's most likely going to be points deductions, or teams being even worse than us that does it rather than our good form. 
Keeping James and Williams fit along with King changes expectation/hope levels, but with our record I take nothing for granted. 

yrs I agree keeping fit James, Williams, king fit is key for us . And I really feel a bloody decent goal scoring striker is a must to buy, loan or steal in upcoming window 

[ExiledAjax]

Nah, we're not going down. We've improved enough vs Holden and Pearson in 2020/21 that we'll survive. The dross beneath us helps of course, but we're still on course to hit the low 50s for points. 

I posted some stats after the Coventry game showing that we'd demonstrably improved our actual output on the pitch. It may not look much better or be much more comfortable or enjoyable to watch, but mostly the stats you want to be up are up, and those you want to be down are down.

The last 6 games have broadly gone in accordance with those stats, and the averages from 17 games are pretty similar (even a bit better) to those now after 23 games.

We're far from a good side, but we're good enough to finish above 3 other teams.

[Fammyfan]

I don’t think we’re in any real danger. An average of a point per game is generally enough to stay in the Championship, even more likely with the circumstances of Derby.

We were also held back by the psychological barrier of getting that first home win which we’ve now overcome, hopefully this will help us achieve improved home form in the second half of the season.

With the outgoings we’ve had (which were necessary), this season was always going to be about keeping a steady ship. As far as that objective goes, we’re on track.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Fammyfan

[Phileas Fogg]

7 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

12 extra points, but rode our luck in many of those wins. We've rarely deserved to win a game, we rarely make lots of chances and we rarely look like keeping a clean sheet. Do you honestly think we have improved that much ? Genuine question, not trying to be funny. I really haven't seen anything that makes me think we will definitely get the points to stay up. This year being different means we don't  need that much to stay up, but it's most likely going to be points deductions, or teams being even worse than us that does it rather than our good form. 
Keeping James and Williams fit along with King changes expectation/hope levels, but with our record I take nothing for granted. 

We rode our luck plenty of times in the Playoff final season - it doesn’t matter whether you’re lucky or not, all that matters is you pick up points.

It’s not always pretty but we are grinding out results somehow. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Phileas Fogg

[Oh Louie louie]

We have had a few years of shocking 2nd half of seasons.

That bad roll, when man city knocked us out went on and on.

In a normal season, we would possibly need twenty points from this postion to stay up.

Going on stats, id imagine that would be a nail biter.

44 points normally enough.

[Engvall’s Splinter]

I actually think we’ll scrape through this season. Next season though ?

[pongo88]

12 minutes ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

I actually think we’ll scrape through this season. Next season though ?

Yes - this season we’re helped by Derby and Reading’s points deductions. Without them things would look a lot worse. There’s got to be an improvement next season or it’s going to be a bit dodgy 

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

We rode our luck plenty of times in the Playoff final season - it doesn’t matter whether you’re lucky or not, all that matters is you pick up points.

It’s not always pretty but we are grinding out results somehow. 

We "NEED" results, but after the last 2 years or so I want improvement, visible improvement. I think we saw glimpses , early in the season, but a lot of that has disappeared. There are reasons for that, to a point, but I was hoping for a little more.  
I've been watching to long to expect anything, after so long where the end of the season has been a car crash, I just want to reach 50 points. Then I will be fairly confident we will be ok.

[Waconda]

35 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

Yes - this season we’re helped by Derby and Reading’s points deductions. Without them things would look a lot worse. There’s got to be an improvement next season or it’s going to be a bit dodgy 

I think we have improved markedly since NP came back from his 2nd illness and the Blackburn game,  the change to a 3-5-2 has suited the players and we do actually look coached and with a game plan now.

Stick to this coupled with some clever transfer business  in the Summer and we should at least be mid table next season.

A relapse into what was going on before Blackburn though and well ................

[oldstandrobin]

3 years time we will be in the playoffs.................................................dont know which league though 

[Simon79]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

We rode our luck plenty of times in the Playoff final season - it doesn’t matter whether you’re lucky or not, all that matters is you pick up points.

It’s not always pretty but we are grinding out results somehow. 

Did we? Or did we keep going to the final whistle, got last minute winners or score late to get a draw? That team was organised at the very least., this current lot, not so. Performance is key for me, yes obviously points are what you are after, but performance is a better barometer of where we are & that’s the bit that concerns me. We are poor at the basics & that hasn’t improved consistently in the last 23 or 46 games. This squad should be comfortably lower mid table, not relieved other clubs are getting docked points! COYR 

[Phileas Fogg]

19 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

We "NEED" results, but after the last 2 years or so I want improvement, visible improvement. I think we saw glimpses , early in the season, but a lot of that has disappeared. There are reasons for that, to a point, but I was hoping for a little more.  
I've been watching to long to expect anything, after so long where the end of the season has been a car crash, I just want to reach 50 points. Then I will be fairly confident we will be ok.

I'd argue that in a recent games we have shown improvement - we're not very easy on the eye but at least we've got a bit of a system in place now (albeit it a bodged one). Scott and Benarous coming through is very promising and the pair of them will only improve. Semenyo looking good too. 

I too would like to see more exciting football - but at the moment the focus is clearly just on results. That may mean being pragmatic and a bit ugly to watch, but if that's what we have to do then so be it. 

Personally I think we'll be ok. This is the worst City side I've seen since the 2012/2013 relegation side (even including the SO'D post relegation side) but a combination of sleepwalking into a reasonably functional system, a few teams being worse than us (somehow) and other clubs getting points deductions means it's very likely we will stay up IMO. 

[Bar BS3]

10 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Here’s another fact, in the last 23 games of last season we earned just 15 points.

We have earned 27 points from the 23 league games we have played since, that is a lot more than “minimal improvement” to me.

As you said yourself, 15 of those points have come against the bottom 5 teams. 

Our points per game ratio under NP is & has been appalling! 

Being a bit less dreadful than utterly dreadful, isn't really the mark of acceptable improvement...! 

[GrahamC]

9 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

12 extra points, but rode our luck in many of those wins. We've rarely deserved to win a game, we rarely make lots of chances and we rarely look like keeping a clean sheet. Do you honestly think we have improved that much ? Genuine question, not trying to be funny. I really haven't seen anything that makes me think we will definitely get the points to stay up. This year being different means we don't  need that much to stay up, but it's most likely going to be points deductions, or teams being even worse than us that does it rather than our good form. 
Keeping James and Williams fit along with King changes expectation/hope levels, but with our record I take nothing for granted. 

Yes.

[Tin Soldier]

City will be fine this season, but next season .....

[Offside]

The OP has made me feel a bit better because we have been dreadful this season and have looked every inch a relegation side. Thank god there are those teams below us whose points tally is so low. 

[Olé]

After witnessing the complete downing of tools at the back end of last season, a free-fall that relied on similar good fortune of others already being too far behind, I take absolutely nothing for granted.

As some have pointed out, performances this year have really not been much better, with several just as bad, and any glimpses of improvement have been fleeting. As a result, I have yet to see enough evidence this team can be consistently competitive, but we have more recent evidence that a Nigel Pearson led side can completely implode (while growing over-reliant on inexperienced teenagers). If one of the teams mentioned as our safety net can do the opposite, anything is possible. Perhaps not the likeliest outcome, but I won't be complacent about some of the dross I've seen this year. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Olé

[22A]

11 hours ago, eardun said:

At the other end of the table, Blackburn are on fire. Six consecutive wins since their draw with us. 

Arguably then, that draw was a good point for City.

[Swede]

Overall we have improved and that will carry on with the opening of the transfer window. Painful though it is. We have a proper manager who is not afraid to tell it like it is. He is under no illusions and nothing short of a root and branch rebuild is needed. I actually think that's part of the attraction for NP. He knows with SL ( unlike most clubs) he has a track record of giving his coaches plenty of time. 

[ExiledAjax]

Just on the Reading and Derby points deductions. Without the deductions they'd be 19th and 18th respectively, so pushing us 2 places lower to 20th. We'd still be 5 points clear of Cardiff in 21st.

Derby would be a point above us on 28, and Reading would have 27 like us but be ahead on goal difference. Admittedly they both have a game in hand on us.

The deductions help us, but they don't  change things quite as drastically as you might assume.

[RedRock]

Thought for a while we are at real risk of the drop.

Not wishing to sound SoD-like, but performances matter. We are the pits and struggle to set any pattern of play. There’s little, if any, teamwork like finding space for an easy pass with a team mate with the ball. Even more basic than that, we struggle to complete a pass over 5 yards.

I haven’t seen an effective ‘partnership’ since Kalas and Webster.

I do tend to treat comments for opposition fans with a pinch of salt. However, how many times when visiting opponents forums do you see repeat comments about us ‘being the worst team we’ve played’. 

Not good.

Pretty obvious Nige is hamstrung by MAs legacy. He clearly thought he could get something out of this squad. I suspect, he’s changed his mind..but can now do little about it. 
 

I was hoping that the January transfer window would be our saviour. It now seems it won’t be. … so down to the existing players to raise their games. Here’s hoping.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by RedRock

[Simon bristol]

I think by good fortune there are 3 teams in a worse position than us, and that will keep us safe. I also think weimann being back as energy of the side makes a big difference and he can score goals. 
but for me this season is about trying to give young players game time and hopefully getting rid of some higher earners,,, if pearson could actually get us organised and playing some decent football that will be a big bonus.

[Alex_BCFC]

1 hour ago, Tin Soldier said:

City will be fine this season, but next season .....

Didn’t we say that last season? We will be ok this and need to keep improving like we have so far this season.