How “safe” are we

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

Until June ?

 

Not just losing, there do seem to be some odd decisions made.
I have to keep reminding myself what state we were (are) in. 

 

I think we needed a Pearson type to come in and start to restructure things, not just on field. We have to give him time to organise things and get us going in the right direction. 

As with all these things it's not straight forward. We have a great bunch of young players that we may not be able to keep hold of long term. Also we don't have the ability to buy half a team. This summer will be interesting for sure, recruitment is key as it always is. We can't afford to be as slapdash as we've been for the past 5/6 years.

Next June (2023) if we can’t move him on beforehand.

My view is I don’t think some people realise how much the financial situation impacts things.  We have to go backwards to go forward.  It’s bloody painful.  Very few seem prepared to go through a bit of pain.  The club is already in a better place, because Mark Ashton is no longer around, but it takes time to recover.

1 hour ago, JonDolman said:

No if I say I want Pearson gone I'll say it. He's done a poor job so far imo and it needs saying.

Why would anyone criticise Holden, LJ, Cotts etc like I had done loads in the past, but then not criticise Pearson when I don't believe he has done as well as I expected.

No biting of the tongue here. I've never held back in my criticism of Pearson and I certainly won't be at all bothered about saying he should be sacked if that's what I ever feel is best for the club.

What are these 'true feelings'. If we brought in a different manager who did the exact same things then I'd be saying the exact same things.

I might not have been referring to you!

There are quite a few who can’t wait for a defeat, can’t wait to pick holes.  Sad I know, but that’s the way they are.

[Offside]

We have enough of a cushion to be safe this season, but next season worries me. With a starting 11 on Sat that could, on paper, be considered to be our best one (with plenty of experience to balance the youth) we were terrible. Our defending is abysmal. We are easy to beat. Yes there will be comings and goings in the summer, but I was hoping that NP would be able to get more out of the players he has and get them playing more as a unit. 

[pillred]

1 hour ago, Offside said:

We have enough of a cushion to be safe this season, but next season worries me. With a starting 11 on Sat that could, on paper, be considered to be our best one (with plenty of experience to balance the youth) we were terrible. Our defending is abysmal. We are easy to beat. Yes there will be comings and goings in the summer, but I was hoping that NP would be able to get more out of the players he has and get them playing more as a unit. 

My thoughts and fears exactly.

[WessexPest]

We can breathe easy, at least temporarily. No relegation this season, although it’s a distinct possibility that we finish fourth from bottom and that the final table gives the impression we were in much bigger danger of the drop than we actually were.

The worst thing from a BCFC fan’s viewpoint is we still have to sit through another 10 games of this. It’s been utterly excruciating.

However, next season we are going down sure as eggs is eggs unless something changes dramatically.

With our parlous financial position, the fact that we will likely be forced to cash in on our few stand-out performers from this season and Pearson showing precious little signs of being able to turn the tanker a year and more into the job, I just don’t see where that’s coming from.

 

[Wrongagain]

6 hours ago, Offside said:

We have enough of a cushion to be safe this season, but next season worries me. With a starting 11 on Sat that could, on paper, be considered to be our best one (with plenty of experience to balance the youth) we were terrible. Our defending is abysmal. We are easy to beat. Yes there will be comings and goings in the summer, but I was hoping that NP would be able to get more out of the players he has and get them playing more as a unit. 

Our “experienced” players were bystanders for most of the first half, a couple of them looked like they are ready to apply for bus passes!

[firstdivision]

23 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Next June (2023) if we can’t move him on beforehand.

My view is I don’t think some people realise how much the financial situation impacts things.  We have to go backwards to go forward.  It’s bloody painful.  Very few seem prepared to go through a bit of pain.  The club is already in a better place, because Mark Ashton is no longer around, but it takes time to recover.

I might not have been referring to you!

There are quite a few who can’t wait for a defeat, can’t wait to pick holes.  Sad I know, but that’s the way they are.

Here's something that nags at me, Dave.

Under DH, we started last season reasonably well. The results were generally ok over the first part of the season. Not stunning, but ok. Steady. The collapse came as a result of a growing and almost unbelievable injury list. We released lots of players at the end of last season. How many of those would have strengthened us this season: perhaps Fam. Perhaps Pato. Almost certainly Hunt as it's turned out (although the fans had had enough of all three). The rest: no. All the players that were injured last season have been fit for some or all of this season. We've brought in James, Atkinson, Tanner and they've contributed at times. (King and Simpson - big mistakes. Obvious waste of spaces. Hard to fathom why we signed them.) We've also seen Scott and Massengo really emerge this season. 

The point is...is the squad that much weaker, despite the financial constraints, than the one in the first half of last season that was doing ok? I'm really not sure it is. But the results have been worse by comparison.  

And so the next question is...can we really say that other managers would not have got more out of this team? That NP has done as well as he possibly could. I don't believe he has. And I feel reasonably confident in my answer to that question. 

The next question is...what should we do about it? Not so easy to answer. For example, on balance can we afford to sack NP? Is it better to stick with the devil you know for now. I like his idea of a team that others hate to play against, but also has a bit of style. But can he make that happen? Or is he an emperor's new clothes manager and we'll look back and say 'why did we put up with it for so long?'

Lots of questions...

[The Journalist]

Not ploughed through all four pages but anyone saying we've been "saved" by other teams receiving points deductions needs to give their head a wobble.

Those teams were deducted points because they cheated. They cheated in signing substantially better players than they could afford. They've been deducted points to counter the competitive advantage they gained/tried to gain by signing those players.

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Journalist

[Rich]

3 hours ago, firstdivision said:

Here's something that nags at me, Dave.

Under DH, we started last season reasonably well. The results were generally ok over the first part of the season. Not stunning, but ok. Steady. The collapse came as a result of a growing and almost unbelievable injury list. We released lots of players at the end of last season. How many of those would have strengthened us this season: perhaps Fam. Perhaps Pato. Almost certainly Hunt as it's turned out (although the fans had had enough of all three). The rest: no. All the players that were injured last season have been fit for some or all of this season. We've brought in James, Atkinson, Tanner and they've contributed at times. (King and Simpson - big mistakes. Obvious waste of spaces. Hard to fathom why we signed them.) We've also seen Scott and Massengo really emerge this season. 

The point is...is the squad that much weaker, despite the financial constraints, than the one in the first half of last season that was doing ok? I'm really not sure it is. But the results have been worse by comparison.  

And so the next question is...can we really say that other managers would not have got more out of this team? That NP has done as well as he possibly could. I don't believe he has. And I feel reasonably confident in my answer to that question. 

The next question is...what should we do about it? Not so easy to answer. For example, on balance can we afford to sack NP? Is it better to stick with the devil you know for now. I like his idea of a team that others hate to play against, but also has a bit of style. But can he make that happen? Or is he an emperor's new clothes manager and we'll look back and say 'why did we put up with it for so long?'

Lots of questions...

In response to one part of your question, regarding whether other managers could have got more out of this group. I honestly think NP could have got more out of them results wise but, he seems to have been sorting the fringe players and making decisions on their long term future. Ultimately, they've now been left out and replaced by others, to see if he thinks they might have a future.

We all seemed to agree that Vyner would/could be a decent squad player filling multiple roles, that appears to have been decided that he won't. Because of inconsistencies, that right defensive area has proven to be a nightmare sorting out, affecting other areas in the process. The same can be said of the left side to a lesser degree. Add in constant changes to the centre of midfield and defence due to injuries and it's no wonder we're in a bit of a pickle. The only consistency in selection has been the strikers, which improved slightly when Semenyo returned from injury. 

So what I think I'm saying is, that NP has been focused on two things, gaining sufficient points for safety and still sorting the wheat from the chaff. He's obviously confident enough to know that his job would be safe, while he does that. That might not be what the owner thinks though.

[Guest]

On 07/03/2022 at 11:56, Rich said:

A bit pessimistic perhaps but, I can see us winning only one of our remaining fixtures, especially how we've been capitulating lately. That fixture is against Peterborough and, I wouldn't feel too confident about beating them either, especially after another four virtually guaranteed defeats, based on our current form.

Hoping to scab another win from somewhere, just don't see where from.

Hull at home? would love us to beat Derby away though in the game before Hull

[Guest]

3 hours ago, The Journalist said:

Not ploughed through all four pages but anyone saying we've been "saved" by other teams receiving points deductions needs to give their head a wobble.

Those teams were deducted points because they cheated. They cheated in signing substantially better players than they could afford. They've been deducted points to counter the competitive advantage they gained/tried to gain by signing those players.

ok, but it looks like their cheating may well have keep us up then and if that ends up being the case then we should count ourselves very lucky....this time

[Rich]

2 minutes ago, gl2 said:

Hull at home? would love us to beat Derby away though in the game before Hull

All possible but, how likely? I think we're scratching to find a definite three points, maybe scrape a couple of draws and hope for an unexpected win.

In reality, we expected a couple of home wins against Coventry and Brum, but got dicked.

Fingers crossed. 

[RedM]

On 05/03/2022 at 20:33, pride of the west said:

If it wasn't for the points deductions I'd wager on us getting relegated. We'd only be 5 points clear and I think Pearson would be close to getting the bullet. With the points deductions we are as good as safe

But if we only stay up because others have had points deducted that doesn’t point to a successful season as far as I’m concerned. 

I think Derby will escape personally and Reading will be sucked into it.

If we do get relegated in the next season or so I think we will find ourselves in League One for quite a long time.

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, firstdivision said:

Here's something that nags at me, Dave.

Under DH, we started last season reasonably well. The results were generally ok over the first part of the season. Not stunning, but ok. Steady. The collapse came as a result of a growing and almost unbelievable injury list. We released lots of players at the end of last season. How many of those would have strengthened us this season: perhaps Fam. Perhaps Pato. Almost certainly Hunt as it's turned out (although the fans had had enough of all three). The rest: no. All the players that were injured last season have been fit for some or all of this season. We've brought in James, Atkinson, Tanner and they've contributed at times. (King and Simpson - big mistakes. Obvious waste of spaces. Hard to fathom why we signed them.) We've also seen Scott and Massengo really emerge this season. 

The point is...is the squad that much weaker, despite the financial constraints, than the one in the first half of last season that was doing ok? I'm really not sure it is. But the results have been worse by comparison.  

And so the next question is...can we really say that other managers would not have got more out of this team? That NP has done as well as he possibly could. I don't believe he has. And I feel reasonably confident in my answer to that question. 

The next question is...what should we do about it? Not so easy to answer. For example, on balance can we afford to sack NP? Is it better to stick with the devil you know for now. I like his idea of a team that others hate to play against, but also has a bit of style. But can he make that happen? Or is he an emperor's new clothes manager and we'll look back and say 'why did we put up with it for so long?'

Lots of questions...

Good thought provoking post…it nags me too!

“Is the squad that much weaker?”

Always gonna be a subjective, opinion based response in fairness, so probably a case that I’d be arguing the toss one way and others may see it differently.  I would add that Alfie Mawson was key in those early weeks and should be factored into the debate.  In many respects, comparable in ability, but even with injuries, we had a deeper squad last season imho.

I honestly think the biggest factor was the contract situation created by SL/MA. It’s unforgivable and it “did for” Holden imho.  I certainly want one who wanted us to pull the trigger, but he became the scapegoat.  Pearson took over a squad unwilling to fight as a team.

”Would others have got more out of this team?”

Im sure some would, and some wouldn’t.  Would others have taken the job with the constraints imposed?  I saw the appointment of Pearson as much more than “first team manager”, but almost “General Manager” too.  I now have seen evidence that is in fact the case….he is building the foundations beyond the pure playing side of things….and I think that is massively important to what happens with City next.

Has he made mistakes in the transparent arena on the pitch?  Yep.  Are some of those mistakes disappointing based on what we expect from an experienced manager?  Yep too.  Are some of them forced on him by other factors?  Yes.  We can debate to what extent each of them is “Pearson’s fault”.  I lean to the side of being in Pearson’s favour.  Others won’t.

”What should we do about it?”

in my view, be patient.  Watch the rest of this season, watch the summer, evaluate at the end of the window.  I’m not gonna set any aspirations at this point.  There are too many unknowns at this point.  If we want to keep Scott, Semenyo, Massengo, expect compromises in other areas.  I think Pearson’s year in charge has been all about compromises.

Not sure if that is the answer you expected?

4 hours ago, The Journalist said:

Not ploughed through all four pages but anyone saying we've been "saved" by other teams receiving points deductions needs to give their head a wobble.

Those teams were deducted points because they cheated. They cheated in signing substantially better players than they could afford. They've been deducted points to counter the competitive advantage they gained/tried to gain by signing those players.

Yep, and their punishment came in a season when they might’ve avoided relegation without a points deduction.  Tough shit!  Do we benefit? Yes we do.

Did we lose out in the years they cheated?  Arguably yes.  Might we have beaten Derby in the 18/19 game where Semenyo got a red card, and pipped them to the playoffs?  Steve Gibson argues Boro were cheated, why not us.

I don’t really care about the table without a points deduction.

45 minutes ago, Rich said:

All possible but, how likely? I think we're scratching to find a definite three points, maybe scrape a couple of draws and hope for an unexpected win.

In reality, we expected a couple of home wins against Coventry and Brum, but got dicked.

Fingers crossed. 

I never expect a win in this league…I might hope for one.  We lost against Cov, but I wouldn’t say we were dicked. Was a strong team performance imho.

[LondonBristolian]

I worry that we're essentially treading water until the end of next season. There are still some big contracts that need to end before the flexibility is really there to re-shape the squad. 

[Davefevs]

Just now, LondonBristolian said:

I worry that we're essentially treading water until the end of next season. There are still some big contracts that need to end before the flexibility is really there to re-shape the squad. 

You are probably right, unless we create some transfer profit.

Pearson will be hung, drawn and quartered if we have another season in lower half the table - fans quoting 3 years to the PL. We will have a much better picture in September (than now) as to whether plan has been adjusted or not.

[Guest]

Peterboro in the lead v Bournemouth and some Wes Burns guy scores for Ipswich

Edited March 8, 2022 by gl2

[Rich]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Good thought provoking post…it nags me too!

“Is the squad that much weaker?”

Always gonna be a subjective, opinion based response in fairness, so probably a case that I’d be arguing the toss one way and others may see it differently.  I would add that Alfie Mawson was key in those early weeks and should be factored into the debate.  In many respects, comparable in ability, but even with injuries, we had a deeper squad last season imho.

I honestly think the biggest factor was the contract situation created by SL/MA. It’s unforgivable and it “did for” Holden imho.  I certainly want one who wanted us to pull the trigger, but he became the scapegoat.  Pearson took over a squad unwilling to fight as a team.

”Would others have got more out of this team?”

Im sure some would, and some wouldn’t.  Would others have taken the job with the constraints imposed?  I saw the appointment of Pearson as much more than “first team manager”, but almost “General Manager” too.  I now have seen evidence that is in fact the case….he is building the foundations beyond the pure playing side of things….and I think that is massively important to what happens with City next.

Has he made mistakes in the transparent arena on the pitch?  Yep.  Are some of those mistakes disappointing based on what we expect from an experienced manager?  Yep too.  Are some of them forced on him by other factors?  Yes.  We can debate to what extent each of them is “Pearson’s fault”.  I lean to the side of being in Pearson’s favour.  Others won’t.

”What should we do about it?”

in my view, be patient.  Watch the rest of this season, watch the summer, evaluate at the end of the window.  I’m not gonna set any aspirations at this point.  There are too many unknowns at this point.  If we want to keep Scott, Semenyo, Massengo, expect compromises in other areas.  I think Pearson’s year in charge has been all about compromises.

Not sure if that is the answer you expected?

Yep, and their punishment came in a season when they might’ve avoided relegation without a points deduction.  Tough shit!  Do we benefit? Yes we do.

Did we lose out in the years they cheated?  Arguably yes.  Might we have beaten Derby in the 18/19 game where Semenyo got a red card, and pipped them to the playoffs?  Steve Gibson argues Boro were cheated, why not us.

I don’t really care about the table without a points deduction.

I never expect a win in this league…I might hope for one.  We lost against Cov, but I wouldn’t say we were dicked. Was a strong team performance imho.

I use the term "dicked" as beaten.

[Finley_Smith10]

14 points if Barnsley win tonight 

[old_eastender]

Barnsley winning - DON'T PANIC!

[cidercity1987]

20 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

Barnsley winning - DON'T PANIC!

Stoke equaliser

[RUSSEL85]

20 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

Barnsley winning - DON'T PANIC!

Not anymore 

[GrahamC]

In isolation excellent results for Posh & Barnsley (though we beat Stoke at home), but they need wins now, not draws.

I’m not convinced any of the bottom three are necessarily going to get more than 40 points now.

[Dan Robin]

No wins for Barnsley & Posh, and Inter wins at Anfield (not enough to qualify but still a great result): satisfied with this football night.

[firstdivision]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

You are probably right, unless we create some transfer profit.

Pearson will be hung, drawn and quartered if we have another season in lower half the table - fans quoting 3 years to the PL. We will have a much better picture in September (than now) as to whether plan has been adjusted or not.

I, for one, have no expectation of ‘three years to the PL’, Dave. I think that’s pie in the sky. I’d be happy to see us stabilise and be top half rather bottom half.

As for your response above about this season’s squad v last season’s squad, I had no expectation about your answer. It’s just nice to have a reasonable discussion without people asserting a particular point of view in a hyperbolic, passive aggressive or dogmatic way. I have some firm views but there’s also a lot we can’t be certain about.

 

[Malago]

Just looking at the respective run ins I can see Barnsley reaching 40 points, above Reading on 38 and Derby on 36, with Posh a distant last.

[aa_bcfc]

5 hours ago, Malago said:

Just looking at the respective run ins I can see Barnsley reaching 40 points, above Reading on 38 and Derby on 36, with Posh a distant last.

What was your view of our games against Barnsley away, Peterborough home, Derby away in those teams reaching their respective points totals. IF we avoid defeat in those 3 games then we should be Ok. Given our recent form though I’m no longer confident for any game.  

[Son of Fred]

2 hours ago, aa_bcfc said:

I’m no longer confident for any game.  

Along with the players....

They are looking gradually more 'shot with each match..

Where I am with it is if we can't scrape five or six more points on in from here then we fully deserve all we get.

[Malago]

4 hours ago, aa_bcfc said:

What was your view of our games against Barnsley away, Peterborough home, Derby away in those teams reaching their respective points totals. IF we avoid defeat in those 3 games then we should be Ok. Given our recent form though I’m no longer confident for any game.  

I calculated that we would lose at Barnsley and Derby but best Posh at home.

[aa_bcfc]

1 hour ago, Malago said:

I calculated that we would lose at Barnsley and Derby but best Posh at home.

Based on Peterborough’s result at Bournemouth they might not be too much of a push over. 

[Red-Robbo]

3 minutes ago, aa_bcfc said:

Based on Peterborough’s result at Bournemouth they might not be too much of a push over. 

 

We play our worst against shit teams. Proved that on the weekend.